Bitcoin analysis across daily, hourly, and 5-minute charts shows a bearish daily bias while lower timeframes turn bullish. The speaker maps entry and exit points around fair value gaps and order blocks, with a major USD news event at 8:30am New York session potentially triggering the next move.
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What's good everyone? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we hit once more, we mentioned that as long as you do not break above this order block right here, the if I had to put my money somewhere, it would be towards the downside. And downside is indeed what we got. The setup that you want specifically is for price to continue showing you bearish order flow. For example, this right now is a bullish order block, right? You want to see price break below this, come back up, you know, get rejected and ultimately you want to see that Asia low get broken. Now once that happens there, if you are still bearish, then you want to look for also an ABC situation on the lower time frames in the sense that Asia's accumulation, you get a breakout at some point and then New York continuation. And that came right around the New York futures open. So this puts us on 61 wins out of the last 74 public YouTube videos that I've made in terms of making these types of analyses. And today we're going to try to keep that streak alive. I think we've been on a one week winning streak so far. And to kick things off on the daily chart, it yesterday's candle closed pretty bearish. And you've left behind relative to equal lows, which means that purely based off of the daily chart, the buy should be towards the downside. Although the moment I get into the lower time frames, you'll start to see that this isn't really pointing towards the downside at the moment. So what I mean by that previous daily low right here is eventually going to get swept. I think just purely because you have left behind a relative equal low here, makes no sense for the market to start pumping from this point onwards while leaving behind essentially these two relatively equal lows. For those of you who are new to liquidity concepts, essentially the market's always trying to target something. We picture the market as kind of like a fish. The fish is always hungry and it's always looking for food. Sometimes the food can be on the bottom of the ocean, sometimes the food can be closer to the surface of the ocean. But you as the market, as the fish, you're always looking for food. Food being people who have their stop losses set. And relatively equal lows in this case are some of the most abundant food sources out there. So it's very rare that you'll see the markets leave behind relatively equal lows without sweeping them first, then going to the other direction. Now this is a good example of an instance where, you know, you didn't really get the sweep, for example, you have relatively equal lows back here, but you did not take it. Although this was on the one hour chart. And we had reasons to believe on that day itself where, you know, price was going to hit towards the downside. We called this, in fact. And of course sometimes you get more examples such as this, such as this, and such as this. So it's not saying that the market will not revisit these lows. I just think it's good to, you know, keep this in mind. But here comes the problem. Remember, early on we mentioned that the daily chart bias is towards the downside, but the moment we go into the one hourly chart, you'll see a different story. First of all, this is known as a change in state of delivery. Just going to mark this out as change in state of delivery. And right now we have gotten another close above. So this just, it's kind of like double confirmation that order flow is now shifting bullish, right on the lower time frames. Order flow is now shifting bullish, higher time frames. We still do not have that alignment yet. So basically, if I were to paint this out, D1 bearish, H1 potentially bullish, or actually it is shifting bullish already. And so now we need to see what the M5 is showing us to come to a reasonable conclusion on what to do today. Now, if it were up to me, I would not be trading this day on Bitcoin specifically because my system dictates that I need all three time frames to be aligned for an A setup. And when it comes to trading, the most important mindset that you need to get through your head is that this is a game of quality. It's you get paid purely based off of the quality of the decisions that you make, not on the quantity of decisions that you make. You can risk 10% on your account on a a plus setup that only shows up like once every six months. Not saying this is what you should do, but you could do that and make, let's say, 50% on your account in just one single trade. Now you could. For just to give you an example, you could risk 10% of your account on an A plus trade that only shows up, you know, once every two months. But if you wait, you know, the entire period in between until that A plus setup shows up and then you take that trade and you're able to risk more in that trade because it's an A setup. It checks every box in your system. If you can do that, then you may make, you know, like, let's say if it's a five hour trade. You make 50% on your account in a single trade. But the key here is that for like 59 days after those 60 days you're not, you know, you're not going to be making any profit. But compare that to the opposite side of the spectrum where you have what I like to call the hamster wheel trader. You know, always on the chance looking at 10 to 15 different charts and every single day is always so overwhelming. Every hour he's taking a new trade and he may have taken, you know, let's say 2, 300 trades over those over that two month period, but P and L wise he may only be up like 5% or in the cases of most people out there, they're down, you know, 10, 15, 20%. They might have blown a few funding accounts. And this, you know, brings home the lesson less is more when it comes to trading. It's all about doing more, more, more. This is a game that rewards patience and decision quality. And if this message resonates with you, if you sound like the trader that I've just described, you can actually apply to work with me one on one like that's right, me and you, me and you to essentially fix all of these issues and get you consistent full time, funded full time into trading, whatever you name it. You can actually work one on one with me. That's right, me and you, one on one. And this is the exact problem that I help to fix, at least that's what I consider my specialty. The result is to get you from where you are right now to full time into trading consistent, confident within the next 60 days only if you're interested, but to the rest, nailing back decision quality. This is one of those days where as like in purely based on my system, I would probably avoid or at least start looking at other charts. I have, as you can see on the right side of the screen here, I have forex, I have indices, I have bunch of other altcoins, few of them that I've, you know, mentioned on the weekly Outlook video early during the week they're playing out some, not so much, but overall this is one. Like if you ever run into this situation, a practical tip that I can give you guys is to just look at another chart. There's so many charts out there that you will always have some kind of opportunity. It doesn't have to be, but you don't have to hyper fixate on Bitcoin. Although don't get me wrong, this does not mean that there is absolutely no Setup on Bitcoin because there still is. It's just if you want to approach this day, my personal suggestion be taking a little bit lower risk purely because this is a little bit lower probability of a day. It's also good to have dynamic risk management. For example, if you get an A plus day, all of the trades that you take on that day, you know, you can go 1%, 2% or probably not 2%, but you get the idea on a day where it's really choppy and you let's say you're not super certain about the direction, but you also have it checks enough boxes to the point where you have a trade, you can still take it just, you know, lower down the risk. This is what all of the professional traders do, right? You have dynamic risk management. So we've already painted that the day one is bearish, H1 is bullish. And so now we just start to paint out some areas of interest that we can get in on later during the New York session, which is about two hours from this point onwards, or actually one and a half. So if this candle closes bullish, you will leave behind a fair bit gap. In the event that New York retraces into here between 7am to 10am Specifically, you can look for a trade to go to the upside. And in this case, these, you know, kind of like relative equal highs would be the target at 109, 100 as well as 109, 200. Of course you can go all the way back to 110700, but I think that's a bit of a volatile move and probably not likely. The reason why we're targeting this and this, by the way, because some of you are look at this chart and be like, oh, isn't this a bearish order block? Well, this is kind of like a rookie mistake that people tend to make is that when they are taking a long, they'll take profit at the start of the order block. Sure you can. Like if you're looking at this from a point of like, okay, this is going to be resistance valid point. But what you don't understand about order flow, like this, the missing piece when it comes to order flow, is that if your market, like, if your order flow is bullish, bearish order blocks and bearish favorite gaps tend to get disrespected. And this is why you see price sometimes blow through, you know, these bearish order blocks or price sometimes blows through these bullish failure gaps sometimes. And the reason why this happens is written in the name, in the definition of order flow itself. Bullish order flow is when bullish PDRAs are being respected and bearish order flow is when bearish PD arrays are being respected. So by nature of the very definition, if you are bullish in terms of order flow, then you always target liquidity points. If you are bearish in terms of order flow, you always target bearish liquidity points. Right. Spring lows, basically. And another way that you can think about this is that if you're taking profit at, let's say, if you go long and you take profit at the bearish order block, wouldn't that be also another way to think that you're anticipating the market to retrace into this order block to ultimately continue the move towards the downside? Makes sense in this case. Why would you not just wait for price to come back into the bearish flow? Sorry, the bearish order block then taking a short in the direction of the trend, ultimately the trend is your friend. We say that all the time. Don't counter trend trade. So why take this when you could take this very small move, very uncertain, very large move, very certain and very likely to happen quickly as well next time you find yourself taking profit, earning an order block or a fairf gap. This is such a simple hack. Like if you're bullish, take it at swing lows. Sorry, take it at swing highs. And if you're bearish, take it at swing lows. There's no reason to be taking profit in between. If this is the case, you may as well wait for price to return back into this area so you can ride the continuation. Ultimately trend is your friend. Okay, going back to what we were talking about before, this is indeed a bearish order block, which means this is usually what would happen if we did not get this kind of like lower time frame order flow change. And so now that you understand the overall situation on bitcoin, let's hop into the five minute chart. And also let me know if you guys appreciate these kinds of like educational segments. I know some of you do and some of you don't, but I'll take kind of like the majority response on this, something that I'm passionate about, of course, sharing these, you know, educational concepts, but definitely deviate away from the original purpose of the video. If you're just here to get the trade, then definitely wouldn't, you know, fulfill that purpose. But otherwise, right now we have Asia session low getting taken out prior to London and then ultimately you are reversing the other way. Right now you've taken out the Asia High and filled in that bearish order block. There are two ways that you can kind of read this. One is that this is A M and ultimately D. And so there are two ways this will play out. And both of these scenarios will rely heavily on this further gap. Because if you find support at the fertility gap and you continue going higher, then that bullish scenario that I just mentioned is valid. You will blow through this bearish order block right here and you will target 109200, 109100 and potentially even higher. Right? So that is the bullish scenario. If we look at it through the lens of AMD now specifically, the time that you want to look for this to happen would be around 8:30am because that's when the news hits the USD news. So that is scenario number one. Now scenario number two, which is bearish, will involve, to be fair, like the higher time frames is bearish. So it wouldn't be surprising if price was actually bearish. And the fact that you have left behind relatively lows here also adds to that bearishness. But in order to be bearish, there are one to two conditions that needs to be fulfilled. And the first one is that you want to see Price close below this favor gap right before 8:30am you want to see price close one hourly on one hourly close beneath this fair value gap. This will give you the signal that you can turn this favorite gap here into an inversion favor gap. And by the way, like this fair bit gap here could change because there's still half an hour until this one hourly candle closes. I'm just recording this video now because I actually have to get going soon. Because I actually have to get going to basketball soon. But depending on the size of this fevity gap, you want to see a close underneath the FEV gap. This will signal to you that the market is indeed disrespecting this bullish PDOA and is actually wanting to go down. Right? This will line up with a higher timeframe thesis. And so if you see that happen prior to 8:30am to we wait for a retrace into this area, you also get the benefit of manipulating the highs here, right? Everyone above these highs will have been stopped out. You retrace back into the bearish order block. Break below the bullish order block, sorry, the bullish fair bit gap. Come back up, retrace and a boot. That will be your setup for today. This will be a range high sweep targeting the range low. That's pretty straightforward so far. The condition for this is this Fair bit gap specifically, that's what you want to look for. Alternatively, you can also look for this bullish order block to get close below for an even higher certainty trade. Essentially, if before 8:30, God forbid, you retrace, you break below 107500, you look for a little retrace and boom. Today's going to be a very volatile day going into 106500. So that is the bearish scenario from the higher time frames. That's what it's pointing towards. And the bullish scenario also revolves around this fab gap. Basically, like at the very minimum, like you want to see price kind of hold this level right here. 107900 can break. You can wick below the F gap, by the way. That's something that I do want to clarify. You just don't want to see a candle close below the fair bit gap. You can wick even below it, maybe fill in this order block, maybe sweep out this liquidity, whatever it is, as long as it closes higher, then that will be your cue. And of course everything else will come down to the five minute just trading the order flow. If you have like, for example, if you have bullish order flow, then obviously you can just continue trading it higher. And in this case, if you have bearish order flow, look for this boom. That super straightforward. Now if I had to put my money somewhere again, that would be the setup. Like whatever happens closer to the New York session, closer to 8:30, that is where I'll put my money towards. Feel free to follow me on Twitter because that's where I'll, you know, post any updates, if there are any. As you can see right here, my Twitter is underscore Theodore Crypto. I wish there was a way for me to just be the crypto, but fortunately joined the game too late. But yeah, if you enjoy these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, subscribe to the channel because I'm making daily videos on bitcoin and potentially looking into different types of videos now in terms of altcoins, more general, you know, educational stuff as well as some vlogs. Working on some vlogs for you guys. But otherwise take care. Bye bye.
