The Art Of Crypto breaks down Bitcoin's market structure across multiple timeframes, showing weekly bullish momentum despite daily indecision. The playbook: wait for Asia accumulation, watch for a breakout and retrace into New York, target 108,400 on bullish continuation, and risk no more than 1% per trade.
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What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Now, we ended last week at 68 out of 82 of all public YouTube calls since February. However, I don't think it was necessarily wrong last Friday, but I wasn't like, you know, the market just basically didn't play out. Essentially the setup that I gave you guys was that, hey, once you get into the zone right here, look for a short. But keep in mind that because of the volatility that we have already experienced throughout that day, that, you know, there might not be a lot of volatility left for, for the rest of the day. And that indeed came true. And I did mention that if you do take many trades, just look for a 2R. In that sense, I'm going to say that I wasn't wrong. But then the market also didn't give us necessarily what we wanted, which is a 2R target. So, yeah, just basically the market was just not very volatile. I'm not going to count it as a loss, but probably not going to count it as a win either. But you guys let me know in the comment section what you guys think. I will go with the majority decision. But anyways, today we're going to try to repeat that win streak and try to keep it alive. And yeah, just give you the rundown on what's going on with bitcoin today. And to kick things off on the weekly chart, you are bullish overall again. You have just filled in this bullish favorite gap right now. And so even though last week was a bit choppy, where you didn't really have a direction like price went up, price went down, eventually you closed a second doja candle on the weekly chart in a row. So, yeah, still very indecisive. But overall, the trend is towards the upside. Not only is bullish order flow being respected on that favorite gap right there, but also if you take a look at market structure, it is also being respected again. Order flow, market structure. That's just higher highs, higher lows. And we will expect this trend to continue until this changes course, until we're proven otherwise. And in terms of the higher high frame, the two levels that you need to pay attention to is like, as much as I hate to say it, it's like you can do quite literally anything between these two levels here. You could retrace all the way back down into this photo gap right here and would still be fine. The uptrend would still be intact. This is the same exact method that I used to basically not panic when back when this retracement happened because right here you have a couple of favorite gaps. That's one and that's two. And guess what? Price just retraced back into a 50%. Right? Just retraced back into a discount. And ultimately the trend continued. So ultimately, when you were in doubt, as they say, zoom out. But in this case, we just follow. I just keep the higher time frame flow in mind. There is a lot of noise that can be introduced in the lower time frames. But hey, as long as you keep the higher time frames in mind, you're going to be good. And so weekly you are bullish. However, because of last week's bearish candle close, you may be just a tiny bit bearish to start the week or maybe in the later part of the week. Although if, if I had to guess, I think we are going to the upside. So first of all, we're already coming into a bearish fav gap on the daily chart, which could support the theory that we may get lower. Now, one thing, one important thing to understand is that on the day chart, this is already a broken base. Essentially, that is a past liquidity point right there. You have swept out that liquidity right here. And the price immediately in the next, next couple of candles, you did a very strong move towards the upside and you broke structure. Not only have you broken structure, but this is now your new bullish order block. This is what is known as a broken base. And this is one of the highest probability reversal like patterns out there in the sense that this was a downtrend and then boom, now you just get a sharp turn back into an uptrend. And so right now you're retracing back into the base where we would usually look for an entry. We also have a change in state of delivery. So far, the order flow is bullish. Weekly is bullish. Daily chart based on yesterday's candle is bullish, which is why we're getting a bullish move at the moment. But right now, just keep in mind that you are entering into a bearish photo gap. Although if my predictance right, this should be invalidated. But to be safe, if you wait for price to actually break above this favorite gap, right, Basically get one. All you need is one daily candle close above this fabric gap right here and a boom, you're going to flip it into support and prices are going to start heading higher. Basically, a close above this favorite gap will completely fully validate this bullish order. Sorry, this bullish broken base right here, that's valid. And boom, at that point, it's never too late to still go long because so far this could still be potential, even though I don't think it's very likely. But it could still be potential resistance purely based off the last weekly candle. Again, weekly bias is bearish and daily we're coming into a bearish resistance area. Now, again, I don't think it's very likely that we, you know, retrace a lot, but you could see some kind of a down move this week before moving higher. But overall the trend, like if we keep the trend in mind, you may just get something like this instead. But more likely than not, probably something like this come back into this bullish order block and then boom, start heading higher and then flipping that bearish re gaps into a bullish inversion fav gap and then off you go. At least that's on the daily chart. Right? Just keeping this in mind before we move into the lower time frames and taking a look at the one hourly chart is also in bullish order flow so far. And again, you're coming into a zone of resistance at the moment which will, like this knowledge was going to help shape what we're going to do in the lower time frames. Now, before I get into any of the lower time frame stuff though, it's important to take a look at news because ultimately the way I always explain news to you guys is that in trading there are always three variables that you're trying to figure out. One, is price going to go up or is it going to go down right direction? Second is how far up is it going to go and how far down is it going to go? That's basically the magnitude of the movement. And then your third variable that you're always dealing with is simply when is it going to happen? Right. And how long is it going to take for that move to fully play out? And news is like, news days are amazing in the sense that you basically know that for example, on Wednesday at 8:30am you got something's going to happen, price is going to move. Is your job like your remaining job is just to figure out where it's going to go or like how far it's going to go. That's it. And that's why we want to ideally be trading on the news days of what we can see right now, Tuesdays and Wednesday this week seems to be the high concentration news events on Thursday and Friday probably expect the volatility to kind of like die down, just like what we saw last Friday and today we also only have JPY news. And so today could be just the remaining like the remainder of the day that we have in front of us could just be a less volatile day. But still overall from what we can see so far, all of the signs in the lower time frame order flow seems to be pointing towards the upside as well as the fact that we got a clean breakout above the Asia session. And currently we have left behind a couple of favorite gaps on the one hourly chart. And so the setup today is going to be pretty simple. Asia is basically going to be accumulation, you're going to get the breakout and then probably a retrace and a New York continuation. There are going to be a couple of zones that you're going to want to pay attention to on the one hour chart for this continuation to happen. One of them is going to be right here at this fairly gap and the second one is going to be right here. Although do not disregard this bullish order block right here. And basically like Price has the potential to bounce from here, here and here. What matters is the timing right now as of the time that I'm recording, this is 6:00am New York. And essentially all you want to see happen is when you get into 7am to let's say 10am, you want to look for Price to give you a change in state of delivery. Basically you just want to see bullish order blocks being respected, bullish favor gaps being respected and bearish favor gaps and bearish order blocks being completely blown through. So as an example here, this is a bullish order block. Price breaks out, respects it and yeah, like just look for bullish order flow and you're going to be Gucci to target for a two hour trade. Now again, Mondays for crypto can be volatile. Just like what we've seen last week where I was like yeah, I'm pretty sure I know what the direction is going to be but I'm not sure about the volatility. Again, it's tough to guess when there's no news. Monday so far seems like a volatile day, especially for crypto. But just in case, if you do take a trade today because of how volatile Asia and London have already been, just be cautious and potentially take a two hour trade or just go might take your profit a little bit sooner. Anyways, if you do get a bullish continuation today, the target is going to be very simple, straightforward, it's going to be 1-08400. Like this idea can be easily invalidated and what you're going to want to look for is for Price to just start forming bearish order flow in the from now leading up to 7am 8am and if you just keep seeing bearish order flow and price like it does not change, then guess what? Today is going to be a no trade day, at least based on the system. Because ultimately with the system that I trade, I want time frame alignment. So the daily bias is currently bullish. The weekly is currently bearish. On paper, like just purely off of the last weekly candle, it is bearish. The one hour chart is bullish at the moment, right? Overall it is bullish though you're touching into a bearish zone. And then the five minute is clearly, very clearly bullish. Let's just say that based on the system, today is probably not the best day to trade purely because like again, we're overall bullish. We have reasons to be bullish, but we're also running into some bearish resistance at the moment. But the key thing to realize is that keep the higher time frame trend in mind, right? Because ultimately if the higher time frame trend is up, then chances are that this favorite gap and this order block is just going to get completely disrespected and price is just going to start heading higher. And so I'm not going to sit on the sidelines to let this pass by. The alternative, by the way, to a retracement because you've already filled in this F gap technically is that if price actually closes above this order block right here at 107112, like 107131 before 7am, like basically right now 6am if this candle closes above, you could totally just look for a retracement at 7am or 8am into that order block and just continue trading higher towards the108,400 target overall. Just keep in mind though that because of how volatile today has already been, New York could just be really choppy. And the highest probability trade for this week is likely going to be after you get a candle close on the daily chart above this daily favorite gap. So let me just refine that down. So once you get a close above this daily favorite gap right here, in fact, you can even refine it down to a balanced price range. If you can get close above this, then boom, this is going to be the highest probability scenario for this week. Just keep in mind that if you take a trade today, this is going to be kind of like a level 2 level 2.5 setup. It's not going to be a. But it definitely fits enough criterias to where it is valid, but definitely not the type of day where you take on like 2, 3, 4% risk more of like a.05%, 1% max. And of course if today starts breaking lower, I would highly recommend not jumping into a short yet because again tomorrow is going to be very telling. Tomorrow has news day, Wednesday also has a news day. So it is never too late to jump into a short after one hourly order flow has given you that kind of confirmation as well as the daily. Like basically yeah, if you get a bearish kind of close today or if you just completely start getting rejected off this further gap right here, then obviously the next day you're just going to trade it lower and you have 1, 2, 3, 4 potential liquidity points and lower potentially. Like you have a lot of bearish targets to select from for today. The setup is very simple from what I can see at the moment is going to be likely Asia accumulation breakout and then New York, like prior to New York you're going to retrace and price is going to continue. But keep in mind that we have a couple of time frames just being misaligned or that we are running into just a little bit of a high time frame resistance which again could be broken through easily. But just keep this in mind, play a little bit more cautiously, take some profit at 2R. Definitely take your profit once you've hit this target right here and do not risk more than 1% on any trades that you do take today. And most importantly, you want to see the market give you the signs of continuation. It is everything I say will be invalidated if you start just making bearish order flow on the five minute chart. And to give you an example of how bearish order flow looks like, in fact look no further than what we did before here. Basically once the price starts breaking down, right, it just you form new bearish order blocks and then you break down and then you respect the bearish order block and like price just keeps forming Bearish, bearish, bearish order flow. And ultimately price just continues heading lower. So that's something very important to keep in mind. As long as you do not have bullish order flow in between the hours of 7 to 10, then today is probably just a no trade day. Personally, if there is a setup, I'm going to be looking for it here. Here, like yeah, like giving you guys the game plan. Anyways, if you enjoy these analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you've subscribed because I'm going to come to you daily with these kinds of analyses. And so far we have about an 80% win rate since February. Going to look to maintain that of course. And lastly, we are completely sold out. Like one intake in advance for Bootcamp. But if you would like to sign up to the waitlist to potentially work one on one with me where I get you from where you are right now, to fund it in a 60 day period, then click the first link in the description box below. Sign up to the newsletter because we will be announcing once the next wait list opens up. Because right now we like the next intake hasn't even started yet and it's already completely sold out. But anyways, have a good day and safe trading everyone. Ciao.
