The Art Of Crypto reviews Bitcoin's recent 83% win rate over four months, then breaks down the current setup across timeframes. With a level 2 readiness grade, the host maps three trade scenarios tied to order blocks and fair-value gaps, waiting for confirmation before entering.
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What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we talked about how Price is going to take out this target and indeed we did. The only obstacle that we face is the fact that Price did not give Ace a retrace before hitting the target. But either way, because the condition for myself when I, you know, decide what to consider as a win or loss is that the target gets hit, slash direction correct without invalidation. That's a key word. And I would say yesterday target got hit without invalidation. The trade ID itself that I gave didn't play out. But like, you know, we're tracking the analyses here, we're not necessarily tracking trades. And so we're going account yesterday as a win, at least on the comment section below. I've seen that a lot of you have made money on yesterday's move. So we can confidently call it a win. That puts us to 64 wins out of the last 77 trades or not trade videos that we've made on YouTube so far over the last four months, which puts us up at around 83% win rate. So to those of you who are new here, just understand that I think you're at the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. But otherwise, let's get into the update for Bitcoin today. Now, today is going to be a bit more complicated than yesterday. Just to give you an idea. Yesterday, the one of the reasons that made it tough for us to make an accurate prediction, even though we were still, you know, we still did well, the one hourly time frame was bullish, right? You have bullish changes delivery over here. You have a bullish order block that broke above, came down to retest it. And ultimately even though you, you know, wicked below that bullish order block, you did not close below it. And overall you're getting another changes that are delivery at the moment and price is now retracing back into this bullish block right here. And so the one hourly chart is bullish. If you take look at the daily chart as well, it is bullish because you have up closed candles. Now on the weekly chart we have reason to believe that Price may return back to this fair bit gap right here. But overall it is bullish as well. Except last week's weekly candle actually closed bearish, which means our bias for this week is actually bearish. So right now, weekly is kind of bearish, daily is bullish, one hourly is bullish. And the moment we go onto the five minute chart, like of course giving mixed signals because it's the five minute chart. And things happen quickly here. So at the moment though, it is showing bearishness because right now you're in bearish order flow on the five minute. Although ideally we want to be guided by the higher time frame, you don't want to be making our decisions from the lower time frame. So taking a look at the higher time frame, these are going to be a few things to keep in mind. Now one of the key tenets of my system that has allowed me to be so consistent throughout like the last four months is that there are clear criteria that I always use when it comes to determining the direction of the day as well as the potential trade setup of the day. And one of these criteria is time frame alignment, meaning if I want to be short on something, I want the daily chart to be short, the one hourly chart to be pointing short and the five minute to be pointing short, specifically those three time frames. And if I'm long or if I want to be long, then vice versa. Problem with today is that we do not have time frame alignment because we have reasons to believe that the market is going down. But Price Action is showing us that it wants to go up instead. And so that makes it a bit tougher. But still, I'm going to give you guys the update and like hopefully we make another correct call today. So on the daily chart, that's the daily favor gap that we marked out yesterday. Ultimately we started heading higher and you have just filled in this daily favorite gap. And so, so now we have to make a very important distinction. Right now we have reason to believe that Price is going to, you know, fill in this daily favorability gap and start heading lower towards this weekly favorability gap. That's what we have reason to believe. Now Price Action has not yet showed us that it wants to do this. Now if we take a look on the one hourly chart, we are still in bullish order flow for all. For the people that use market structure, this is overall bullish market structure. So the market structure hasn't changed yet and the order flow hasn't changed yet. But the keyword here is yet. So within my system and just something that helps me filter trade ideas on a day by day basis because it's with so much information that you need to process in trading, you need some way to remain objective on a day to day basis so that you can remain consistent. And the way I approach this is that I grade my trade setups on three levels of 1, 2 and 3. Level one is that just straight up, not enough Factors have been met and so this is not even a trade idea. So yeah, no trade yet. Level two is that it's starting to shape up, right? We're starting to see a few criteria being met, we're starting to see the direction but it's not shaping up to be a. Like it's getting there but it's not a trade yet. And of course level three is your, you know, A plus trades or like yeah, this is definitely a trade. Yesterday we were at a level 2.5, something like that. And again today is going to be more of a level two because if you take a look here, we have a reason to believe that price is going to get rejected here. But it hasn't happened yet. And so that leads me on to today. Like what I'm going to be doing today is that like I will still make a call, don't worry about that. I'm still going to give you the analysis but I'm going to be very cautious as to how I approach this day. I'm going to be patient to ensure that all of the criteria that I'm looking for are, are actually showing up before I jump into trade. Because today is not one of those high probability conditions based on my system at least. And that's what I'm trying to share here. Like my system can be very different from yours which is why I'm trying to share here. Like my system is very different from yours. Ultimately I'm just sharing my perspective from my system because this would be a trade. Like every day before the session starts I look through the charts and I do this in my mind right now. These videos are just a way for me to share this. But anyways, with enough of that said, let's jump into it. Daily chart bullish bias. Fill in that fab gap. Okay, boom. We already understand that. Now one hourly this is going to be the order block that you want to look at. Potentially this F gap that you want to look at. And just remember that overall the trend is bullish. Which means that there is a chance that this bearish order block could just get disrespected and this F gap could just get disrespected. So that would be scenario number one where if you break above this order block before or like during the New York AM session. Just to give you another idea, today at 10am we have USD news. So if you break above this order block before 10am and you come down to find support it, then this would be a reason for you to jump into a potential long Trade idea entry here, stop loss there and just targeting 2R or just targeting the current daily high. So this would be idea number one. Now the thing that would invalidate this is if you fill in this fair gap right here, there will be a chance that, you know, you just completely break through that order block. So this will kind of be like scenario number two, right? If you fill in this favor gap, then price is just, you know, potentially heading lower. And if this happens before 10am, then this is what you do, right? Just mapping out scenario number two and as a scenario number three is that you just start breaking lower from this point onwards because this is a bearish order block. Now specifically like it's about half an hour until the New York AM session starts. And so if you start showing a movement like specifically on the five minute chart, what I want you guys to notice is essentially this is a potential bullish order block right here. In fact, this is a bullish order block because price has broken and above it. And so if for this to be validated you want to form a higher low here and to make a new high, that's what you want to look for. Now what gets invalidated is that if price breaks below this and comes up to find resistance here, this is a, what is known as a change in state of delivery. If you get this anytime between 7:00am to 10:00am without breaking above this high here, basically if price just starts breaking lower and starts showing bearish order flow from this point onwards, then it's going to be a pretty easy short all the way down to the previous daily low as well as the daily low from two days ago. So that will be the setup. Now just keep in mind that higher time frame you are pointing towards the bullish direction. And also like we have news at 10:00am today, so if possible I would wait closer to 10:00am before I start taking any trades. Specifically 9:00am, 9:30am during the futures open or maybe even 10:00am or unless like if the conditions that I mentioned to you are fulfilled, then yeah, absolutely, take a trade. But otherwise, like for me today I'm going to be playing it very cautiously and potentially even looking at other trade ideas and other pairs instead of bitcoin. But either way I will give you guys an update on what's going on with, with bitcoin later on on Twitter. Is that's where, that's where I get to post these kinds of quick updates. If you guys would like to, you know, follow along that or just to get an update as to what the situation is. Because Right now, like, I think you get the feeling that I'm sounding a little bit uncertain as well then. Yeah. Follow me on Twitter. Underscore the art of crypto. I'm going to leave the link in the description box below. So, yeah, guys, like, I wish I could give you a much better answer today. Like what I did yesterday. Just like, hey guys, it's going to go down. Or like last Friday, hey guys, it's going to go down. Just short it. Unfortunately, today is not one of those days. And you know, sometime, sometimes it happens, right? Market conditions. And it's important to just, you know, identify these market conditions and play it accordingly. Now, another thing that I'm noticing right now as I'm hopping onto the daily chart is that we're getting a potential inverse. Sorry, there. A head and shoulders. There's not an inverse heads and shoulders. And if there's one place where you can form this, it's at this daily fair bit gap. Again, tomorrow is going to be much more telling. If today closes bearish, then tomorrow is obviously going to be just a bearish trade. However, right now it's still level two and unfortunately this is not enough for me to make an official call. And so I'm going to state it clearly right now that I've given you guys the scenarios that could potentially happen. But because I am not telling you guys exactly where it's going to go, I will not count this towards an official call just because, well, it's very irresponsible, right? Oh yeah. I can always just give you a bearish and bullish scenario and I'll always be right. Exactly. So we're not going to count it today, but to the rest of you who've watched under this video so far, just understand that I read every single comment. Thank you for all of the support over the last two, three weeks. I can really start seeing a community being built around this market update so far and I will continue to do my best invest. Today is unfortunately not one of those days. But if you're also interested in, you know, getting more of these updates from the smart money trading perspective on Bitcoin and other altcoins open to doing that, then subscribe and turn on the bell notification. But otherwise do subscribe to the newsletter because I'm sending a lot of value there and potentially a new masterclass that's coming up. The newsletter people will be the first to know. So sign up to the newsletter if you haven't already. But otherwise I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye Bye.
