Bitcoin: Setting Up For An EXPLOSIVE Move, Don't Fall For This!

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Finally the camera is back on and today I am recording the video later at the usual cadence. If you guys remember, we had our biggest success rate when I record the video around 5:30am and there's a reason for that because this is the time where I'm able to see the entirety of London session play out and just generally get a very good understanding of what is going to happen during in New York. The thing is, over the last couple of days I think I lost sight of the priorities and I started doing hyperbaric oxygen therapy at around this time actually like right now, which meant I had to record the video like a couple of hours earlier so that I can make it in time for the therapy. So I have now switched the appointment timings and now we're going to go. Well, at least I'll try my best to go back to regular scheduled programming which hopefully today will end up with a much more solid wind compared to yesterday. But even yesterday I think it went pretty good. That is your bearish order block right there. Price eventually did not give any sort of bearish cisd and ever since I recorded that video, Price just continued pumping up and eventually you get a candle close above that bearish order block right there, come back down, flip it from potential resistance into potential support and off you go. So that marks the 86th win, I think, over the last 104 videos since I started tracking back in February. And today we're going to do this once more and hopefully try to keep this win streak alive. Now one of the other reasons why I may have been having a tougher time this week, just giving you guys a really solid kind of like prediction has to do with the fact that we are in a range at the moment. And this is very evident at the moment. I go up onto the 4 hourly chart, you don't really see much going on. Right. Price is just really coiling up for a second big move. Meanwhile you have coins like Solana and XRP and BNB and you know, literally most of the large cap altcoins have been performing really well and that's normal because right now we are in a little large cap season just like what I've mentioned in yesterday's video. Now if you guys want to hear more about altcoins, actually I do talk about it more on my Twitter. For example, just mentioned Sui, Kaito and Hype. But feel free to follow me on Twitter if you would like more of these updates. But otherwise one of the reasons is that hey, yeah, we're just in a range and this is normal because the price, like the market just made a really volatile move going from $107,000 up to 123,000. Right now we're at the new all time high. And, and it's very common for markets to move from periods of high volatility to low volatility. That's why the market always ranges after a while. That's why each and every asset, no matter if you're looking at crypto or if you're looking at traditional finance, price tends to follow a very predictable pattern of an aggressive impulse move followed by a long consolidation and vice versa. After long consolidations, you tend to get explosive, impulsive moves. This is all just part of the course at the moment. Now the only advice, and one of the best pieces of advice that I can give you at this moment, because we are in this range, right when we focus on this big picture we're in this range, is number one, to accept the fact that we are in a range, okay? So that means we're not going to be aiming for insane targets like for bitcoin to just form a new all time high right now. And secondly, it's to understand that the opportunities in range do not lie within the range. It lies below the range low and above the range high. This is further confirmed by. I believe I was just scrolling through Twitter just now. Yeah, done. So it's, you take a look at just the, the highest amount of liquidity at the moment. You can see it's all concentrated below here, right. This tells you one thing. There are a lot of people that have went long at any point in the chart right now and they all have their stop losses underneath this level. And if you know anything about how the markets work is that it is a zero sum game, which means that for every winner there is a loser. And right now there is, there are out there that stand to gain a lot if they were to cause everyone of these people to get swapped out here, everyone that gets stopped out here will lose money. Guess who's going to be buying low and eventually selling it back high. When you know the retail comes back in and like oh yeah, you got a breakout. Let's, let's buy the breakout or whatever. So they're going to be buying here and the ones that are buying here are going to be selling here. Right? Just market dynamics. This is why I teach what I teach, which is smart money concepts. That's why also you have seen that this is a method that is Publicly documented, it averages around an 80% win rate. It's simply because, like, we're not trading like retail here. I may not be smart money, but this method has been proven to at least come close to trading alongside the smart money decisions and also just their trades in general or their moves. This is further cemented by the fact that at the moment, on the weekly chart, we have a weekly fair value gap right here, right? This is a bullish fairly gap, which means that when you return back into this favor gap, you can start going back to the upside. Already kind of predicted this at the start of this week, saying that until that fab gap is filled, expect for price to be a little bit more choppy, for it to be a little bit more manipulative. And this is again further emphasized or rather supplemented by the fact that right here you have a weak low. What is a weak low? A weak low is a low that does not suit liquidity. If you take a look at this high right here, you could technically argue that, yeah, you know, you swept out this previous liquidity right here before price, you know, continues heading lower. The problem with weak lows is that they tend to be swept. For example, right here, that's a weak low. That's a low that forms without sweeping liquidity. Boom. You sweep it before you continue the up move. On the flip side, you have strong lows, right? If you guys remember, you guys were watching me back at that point. I did mention that, hey, this was very likely to be the bottom. Why? Because this is a strong low, followed by the fact that you are filling in a further gap right there. Strong low, further gap, immediate break in market structure. That's exactly what you want to see. Hold train continuations. Similarly, we have a just very similar setup in a sense that you have a week low right here. You have now two week lows, actually, because this is now a relatively equal low. And right here you have the Fermi gap. So it's only like, yeah, you guys see where I'm coming from. So at the very least, I'm not going to be looking for take like swing longs. Like, if I was a swing trader, I'll be focusing most of my attention at, around this box right here, starting from, let's see, $115,000, 600 down to, let's say $112,000. A retracement into this level right here, followed by a decently strong, you know, display of, you know, just upward price action would confirm that, hey, price is just finished. Price has finished its retracement. And is, you know, on the way up. Whether or not that gets filled today, I have no idea. That highly depends on whether or not there is news today. And immediately you can see that there is no news today. It is a Wednesday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. This week has been a terrible trading week so far, especially for traditional finance. Tomorrow though, we will get the news. So I would wager that tomorrow is the day where, you know, we may fill in this further gap right here and potentially, just potentially, price will start shifting towards the upside. The reason why I say potentially is because tomorrow is a Thursday. It's getting closer to the end of the week, which also means that, hey, things can really just only start to happen next week instead. But taking a look at the daily chart, right, we're still ultimately an intraday channel. We have a bullish daily close right here. And so today, technically our bias is supposed to be towards the upside. We have a big little problem. Well, we have a decent. Well, we have a problem actually. Within the next 24 minutes, if you are able, if you end up closing underneath this level right here at 118,100, then that is going to be a no go, right? Because right now this is a one hourly bearish changes date of delivery. And instead of looking for longs, you're going to want to be looking for shorts instead. Now if this does not close below though, and if you happen to be able to sweep out both of these relatively equal lows right here at 117,500 on either 450, then that's going to be a really good sign that if you manage within the next 24 minutes to sweep out this low without closing below this level, which would signify bearish changes delivery. That is a true, true sign of strength because you're also filling in this bullish order block right here. If you're able to do that, then amazing, right? Price continues going higher. Cannot make any predictions because there's still 23 minutes. If we take a look at just the lower timeframes and let's try to understand what the session profiles are telling us. First of all, Asia is your accumulation. So far, London has broken below the Asia low and has spent most of the trading session trading underneath the Asia low. This is a sign that today we may potentially, instead of getting an AMD setup where you accumulate, manipulate, trick everyone into thinking price is going down and then during New York session, you distribute towards the other side, you could get a ABC right accumulation breakout and then retrace continuation, which, which is what I think is going to happen. And so if I had to put my money somewhere, I would put it at that. But there is a big problem with this. First of all, the daily chart is bullish, right? Which means that today we're supposed to be looking for longs. The one hourly chart technically is still at the very moment bullish. This changes though. The moment you get that candle close, the moment you get that, that is confirmation that this scenario is going to play out. And thirdly, like, just understand that even if the one hourly has changed, the daily chart is still pointing bullish, which means you are getting time frame misalignment. I'm going to show you like something that I feature in Bootcamp, which is the program where I work with you one on one to install the exact systems that you're seeing here on this video and the last 100 videos that I've used to achieve like an 80% win rate, I help you install those very same systems inside Bootcamp. And one of the things that I like to talk about and like to teach is that we have a checklist, right? It is a checklist of about eight different conditions. And depending on how many conditions are present at any given point, you either have an A plus trade, just a normal trade, or no trade at all. And at the moment, time frame misalignment is one of them. A non Newsday is also one of them. Which means whatever trade that we take today, we already have two conditions missing from the eight, right? Which makes this not an A plus trading day. So in following, you know, just following the system, whatever trade I'm taking today is going to be half risk at the very minimum because, well, it's just not the best kind of trading day. And so chances are I may even just completely ignore this because I do have a call later with Bootcamp delivering what I like to call a maintenance mode module, which is I'm going to be showing the Bootcamp members later to just make a full time living trading without spending more than half an hour a day on the charts, which is kind of what I've been doing for the longest period of time as well. But anyways, if you're interested in working with me one on one inside Bootcamp, feel free to sign up. We don't take on a lot of students per intake just because of the one on one nature of this. Otherwise, let's get back into the video. Assuming that all of those previous conditions does not happen, then you have an interesting scenario going on, right? And I'm going To also give you the conditions for that to happen. And primarily you're going to want to look for this order block right here because if you break above that order block right there, you can potentially flip that from resistance into support. Right? So this would be the bullish scenario assuming that you do not get a candle close underneath this level right here at 118,100 going down onto the 15 minute chart. You will also see kind of a similar picture of this where we could potentially even find it down to this block right here. But ideally you want this block. So kind of like yesterday, flip that resistance into support, whatever it retraces into place your stop loss underneath this low target 2R. Target 120,000 and you're going to be Gucci, you're going to get your 2R. But otherwise like I think I've painted out both of like both sides of this scenario pretty clearly and I. Guys, I wish I could give you a more clear answer, but unfortunately I've already explained to you based on my system that yeah, I'm just getting time frame misalignment. I can kind of make a guess. But just truthfully, this is not the highest probability day that I've seen. There are days where this is really easy. In fact, there are a lot of days where this prediction is very easy. There are days where it's not so much and it's just a part of this training game. I still, you know, put my face on here and you know, put my kind of like win rate on the line by still making all of these calls. So just. Yeah, I'm doing my best. But otherwise guys, downside targets going to be towards the fever gap. I'll say targets going to be over here above the Asia high and potentially even the daily high from what is this Thursday, last Thursday, which is at $120,900. Do I think we're going to get that far up today? I highly doubt so just because of the reasons that I've already outlined before. Just the fact that you have some higher time frame levels over here means that, you know, it's more likely that you're going to retrace into this area. Now again, whether or not that happens today or tomorrow, I cannot tell. And if there is one bit of advice that I will leave you off before you move on, it's to play today cautiously. Right? We're getting time frame misalignment. Just because we have a decent idea of price coming into this area does not mean that we are going to be right, right Ultimately, this depends on what the market does. It's important as traders that, hey, firstly, we formulate an idea of what we want to see in the markets, what we want to see happen in the markets. And then secondly, we actually wait for the market to confirm that with us before we jump into it. So many traders, so many people that I've seen just, you know, they have a really strong idea of like, okay, because Schwen says it's going to go up, then it's going to go up. Chances are. I've never said something like that before. It's always. There are always certain confirmations that we look for. Anyways, this video has been a bit, you know, more of a all over the place kind of situation, but there are just quite a few lessons that I do want to share with you. But also, this could just be driven by the fact that I have just done Hyperbaric Oxygen. And yeah, I'm just feeling a bit disorientated, to be honest. Today is my fifth session in the last five days, so I'm going for one session every single day. It is pretty intense, but otherwise, yeah, no excuses. I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Bye. Bye.