Bitcoin: Setting Up For Manipulation

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we talked about how the most likely scenario was that Price was going to get rejected off of this five leg up after sweeping these relatively equal highs and for downside continuation. And clearly I was wrong. Although we did manage to call the fact, you know, one of the scenarios was that yesterday was going to be a inside bar where you do not sweep the low or hive the previous day's candle just because of how volatile it was and essentially how the market moves from periods of high volatility to low volatility. But currently the bullish scenario that we talked about yesterday, like what needs to happen in order for Price to go bullish, is now fulfilled. So in this video I'm going to give you guys the update on what's going to happen today as well as for the rest of this week because tensions are high due to the kind of US China trade war at the moment, rather the truth. But anyways, before we move on, we are going to need to update the spreadsheet. So as of Yesterday we were 52 out of 64. So this will be the first loss that we're taking, or rather the first wrong analysis that we are making in about two weeks. So breaking this two week win streak. So putting us now at 52 out of 65, which will, let's see here, 52 out of 65 is a flat 80% win rate. I'll take that. So currently we are sitting at an 80% win rate since I've started tracking calls publicly on YouTube since February. So out of 65 calls, I was right on 52 of them. Well, we take that loss and it is what it is. What matters is that I'm right more often than I'm wrong. And so if you are new to this channel, just understand that you are in the right place. And the most importantly right now is that Price is showing that reversal. So yesterday we discussed three scenarios. One is the most likely one where Price was going to hit towards the outside. The third one being that yesterday was just going to be an inside bar and there was not going to be, you know, any particular move worth taking. And that ended up being, you know, correct. But still, I did mention that the first one was more likely to happen. So I'm going to take that loss. But the second one was, you know, what needs to happen in order for Price to go bullish. And essentially it has to do with this block that you see right here. And so this block is known, is what's known as a bearish order block, right? And in terms of reading order flow, you need Price to actually sweep above this order block and come back down to find support anywhere within this range right here. Once you get a candle close above this block right here, that would signify that hey, Price wants to go bullish. And so that has happened. And so let's just see if we can confirm this on the higher time frames because we never want to just, you know, buy into the lower time frame noise right off the get go. We always want to start things off on the higher time frame so that we are trading in line with the higher time frame objective and trends. So kicking things off on the weekly chart, just understand that overall we are still in a strong uptrend where anything can happen between this high and this low. Right here you can go up, down, left, right, inside, outside. As long as you do not break this low, the uptrend is still intact. Anything coming into, you know, for example, you have this weekly favorite gap right here. You have this weekly order block. You also have this weekly favorite gap, right? A retracement into any one of these is just going to be a retracement in an overall uptrend, right? Otherwise the trend, the higher frame trend is towards the upside. And so that leads me on to the daily chart. Yesterday we had a bullish candle, which means purely based off of yesterday's candle, this should be a bullish day. And I think the price action kind of confirms that as well because this fabulity gap right here has been filled already and you get a bullish candle. So today we're just going to, you know, give it the benefit of the doubt, see how Price action plays out. And so far looking pretty good. And yeah, I've already talked about how that bullish scenario that we discussed yesterday came true, which means today we are just looking for areas of interest for Price to return back to. And currently Price has returned back into this bullish order block right at around the London Odin. And if we can go into the lower time frames, we will see that that is the Asia low. Didn't get, didn't quite get swept. But still the fact that you've returned back to this area sometime during the LUN session is a really good sign because ultimately technical analysis, or rather accurate technical analysis is not about just reading Price. It's more about understanding the behavior of Price at certain timing windows of the day. And one of those timing windows is definitely going to be the London session as well as the New York session. And so far the fact that you have tapped into the bullish order block during the London session is a really great sign. So let me see if there are any other potential, you know, variables like potentially price could, you know, go lower. We can see that there is a bullish order block right here, which is definitely a possibility. Plus the fact that you have a weak low sitting over here. A weak low, by the way, is a low that does not sweep liquidity. Just to give you an example of a strong high, this high forms after sweeping out this liquidity right here. That's why it's a strong high. That's why the move was aggressive and that's why price doesn't quite come back to, you know, take out that high over there. But on the flip side, when you have a bunch of weak lows together, such as this one, price will eventually come to sweep them out before any sort of, you know, strong directional movement. So this currently is a weaker low. Does not signify that this will get swept out though. It just means that if it does get swept out, it will give us a very, very clear setup to, you know, trade the liquidity sweep. Filling in the order block and then taking out the Asia lows in an overall uptrend like that's just kind of like a counterparty liquidity suite during the trend, which is where most of the aggressive moves in the market tends to come from. If you take a look at most of the major expansions, right? Even if we just take a look at the one hourly chart right here, after you sweep out the liquidity, that's when the explosive move begins. Right here. After you sweep out the liquidity, that's when the explosive move begins once more. I guess no more explosive moves here. But the uptrend does tend to start after that liquidity streak. So if it does happen, then that is a potential second scenario that we can look at otherwise at the moment, based on how price action is shaping up. In fact, I have one other factor that I do need to check out and that's going to be forex factory today, there is no USD news. It's going to be a little lower probability in terms of the setups and how fast action is going to play out, just purely because there is no news. Now, the way to use news, by the way, and this is how I kind of teach everybody, is is that there are usually three variables when it comes to, you know, reading price action and when it comes to trading. One is the direction of price, right? Is it going to go up or down? The second is how Far up is it going to go and how far down is it going to go? So that's kind of like two things that you need to predict. And then there's the third thing, which is your timing, right? What time is it going to happen? Or like, when is this move going to happen? The benefit of news is that it kind of removes the third variable in the sense that you know when volatility is going to come in and you just need to read the direction of price and how far it's going to go. And that's the benefit of news today. We do not have that. And so we cannot predict volatility. So the only things we can go off of is, you know, using the kill zones and most importantly, just understanding the points of interest. In this case, that's the order block right here. I do think that just given how Price is going to like, is setting up so far, I do think that we bounce from here. So the exact scenario that you want to look for though is ideally you want to see a break above the Asia high. So the Asia high at the moment is 1104100. If you are able to break above the Asia high, what you want to look for is some kind of retracement before the New York session. So could be anywhere between, you know, 6 to 7am, could be even 8am New York, where you retrace halfway kind of back into the range and then boom, that's upside continuation. So essentially a breakout retrace continuation today is more likely than not, not going to be one of those AMD setups, although it is still possible. So now that brings me on to second scenario, which is if you take out these Asia lows right here, that's relative to equal lows. You take this out sometime during the London session because it's only the start of the London session. In fact, this is only the start of the London kill zone at 2am So a lot can happen in the next, you know, five, six hours before the start of the New York session. So if you do take this out, then you want to look for a trade. And in fact, these relatively equal lows go way beyond that. So if you take a look in there, that's also another relatively equal low. If you do take it out sometime during a London session, this will mark a Asia accumulation, London manipulation, and then potentially a New York distribution. Now, just one thing, one last, last thing to note is the fact that you can have the potential to come all the way back down to 102, 800 filling in this bullish order block. Although the fact that we do not have news today, I'm not sure if we're going to get such, you know, clean volatility. But if we do, then just understand if this happens, by the way, then more likely than not, New York is potentially going to go a little bit more towards the downside rather than giving you kind of like an instant, you know, V shaped recovery just because of how much resistance it will need to overcome. If you do sweep all the way back down to these lows, but you do sweep down to these lows, then it's going to be pretty easy. This will be kind of the profile that you want to look for for today. Oh, and by the way, apologies for not showing the camera today. That's a bit of a problem with the camera. It's been kind of lagging so that's why the camera isn't on. But I'm currently working on a, you know, long, you know, kind of thesis, slash in depth report on the US China trade situation just so you guys can understand what's going on and understand the implications of how that is going to be for crypto. You would like to get access to it. I will make a video, but I will definitely also be sending an email to anyone subscribed on the newsletter. So if you want to, you know, just sign up to the newsletter, I'm going to put a link down below. It's like it's not one of those newsletters where we're spamming you like trying to get you to buy something. It's honestly I'm sharing value and we send an email every day. If you're interested, first link in the description box below. But otherwise, guys, if you enjoy these analyses from the smart money perspective crypto, then make sure you subscribe and turn on the bell notification because I'll be coming to you guys with daily uploads moving forward. Otherwise, guys, see you in the next one. Bye Bye.