Bitcoin: Taking A Trade Here Won't End Well

What's good, guys? I know it's been a long time since the last video, but it was traveling over the last few days, hence why I couldn't make a video. But today I finally settled in, got my new setup. It's time to bring back those daily uploads. So taking a look at bitcoin right now, on the weekly chart, last week we had exactly what we were talking about, which is a weekly close above this level right here. Basically sweeping these lows and not closing below. It signifies that there are interested buyers in keeping price above this level. And that's a really good thing. If we are bullish on bitcoin, which hopefully we are, and in this case, because we had such a bullish weekly close last week, this means that this week we are also very bullish. I know that this is already getting close to being the end of the week, but what's interesting is that this week has been relatively boring in terms of volatility and we have news later on in about four hours. So I think today, if any day, will likely give us some much needed volatility. So right off the get go, we're going to mark out a further gap that we can see on the daily chart at the moment, which is right there, perhaps we might fill it, but I don't think we are going to return to that today. And taking a Look at the 4 hourly chart, there are a couple, you know, relatively equal lows at the moment and the high right here has already been swept. That was a four hourly feverly gap, I believe, and price is currently kind of breaking structure to the downside, which means that the lower time frame does not look to be aligning with our higher time frame thesis at the moment. Because on the weekly chart, the fact that we had a bullish weekly close means that, well, first of all, the previous weekly high needs to be, you know, taken out, which it already has. So perhaps the bullish move of the week has already been taken out. Just to explain what I mean, every time we get a bullish candle close, the draw liquidity is going to be on the previous, you know, candle high. So you can apply this from the weekly time frame all the way down to the one hourly or even the five minute time frame where, for example, on the one hourly, if you get a bearish candle, then you would anticipate the previous one hourly low to get taken out on the very next candle. I have had data of more than a thousand backtests at this point on this, you know, concept, and it works 80% of the time. So taking a look at the weekly, perhaps the higher timeframe objective has already been taken out because, you know, the previous weekly high has already been swept. So. And one of the reasons why I'm kind of leaning towards the bearish side at the moment is because of the fact that we're having kind of weak market structure on the lower time frames. Meaning you have swept this high here, which means this becomes a strong high. But then these relatively equal lows here are known as weak lows. And weak lows tend to be targeted, strong highs tend to be protected. I wouldn't be surprised if you came down to sweep all of these lows, fill in the FE gap. And honestly, at this, at that point, maybe you bounce. But more likely than not, one thing to keep in mind is that on the higher time frame, you are still within bearish order flow until otherwise proven. So just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about, basically since the start, or rather the middle of January, you have been, you know, forming bearish order blocks, breaking down, forming another bearish order block and then respecting again. Boom. That's a bearish order block. Boom. Price comes up, fails to break above, it heads downwards. So for now, until you break above, basically like $94,000, at the moment, it's still looking pretty bearish. And the first step to actually, like real, real bullishness would be at least going above $88,000, ideally getting a daily close above it. Or even better yet, if this week you can maintain a bullish weekly candle, then, boom, next week, 100%, I think you are going to target right here, $88,000 and potentially even higher. But that would be the draw on liquidity if you get a bullish weekly close this week. All in all, the TLDR is that at the moment it's looking kind of uncertain in the sense that the higher time frame is kind of pointing towards the upside. But the lower time frames, like, I wouldn't be comfortable, you know, telling you guys to go long here because you have these relatively equal lows. I got to call the market as I see it, not based on what I would like to see or based on whatever is going to get the most views. That is my responsibility to you guys as the person making these videos. So in this case, the TLDR is that there is probably no trade today unless you sweep either one of these, you know, relatively equal lows right there sometime during the New York session or perhaps even in the New York morning. It could happen after news. Like just to give you an idea, we have 8:30am we have unemployment games. That is a red piece of news. But today the majority of the news are actually concentrated within the, you know, the euro pairs like I called the trade earlier today on the gbp that's you know, kind of on almost on the way to playing out fully. But just on Bitcoin I would expect the volatility to come in after 8:30. But in general I think today is going to be a no trade day for bitcoin. Now perhaps there is a trading day for the other crypto pairs, but honestly I think it is very unlikely unless you have an outlier like Solana for example, which is moving very differently compared to bitcoin at the moment, where if you take a look at the Bitcoin and Ethereum chart you can see that they look pretty similar. But the Solana chart is definitely outperforming both of them. And so in this case you may have a setup on Solana, but we're not going to talk about Solana. But what I will talk about is the new and approved free email course. Guys, I spent the last few days working on completely revamping the current free email course that we have and basically identifying the seven most common and biggest problems that most of you are facing when it comes to your trading. And inside, I have provided you a step by step ratemap on overcoming those problems. If you would like to receive this for absolutely free, delivered straight to your email over the next seven days, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise I'll see you guys in the next one. Ciao, ciao.