Bitcoin needs to break above $95,500 for early bullish confirmation, with intraday support at $91,300. The speaker recommends trading the 7-10am New York window with half-risk sizing due to Thanksgiving low liquidity, and outlines specific levels for Ethereum ($3,050) and Solana.
Questions this video answers
~300 days
80% win rate
Break above ~$95,500 (early change of state)
Break above ~$93,000
Order block starting around $91,300
Chapters
Hey, just wanted to let you know that there are less than 48 hours until the start of the masterpass where I'm going to be breaking down this full system that I've used on this YouTube channel, making daily videos for the last 300 days. So far, I'm at an 80% win rate. And no, this is not going to be one of those webinars where, you know, you're going to listen to me talk about my childhood stories and how I grew up and, you know, whatever. It's no fluff, no bs. It's going to be two hours of just straight value. If you haven't signed up already, make sure you click the first link below. You have less than two days left to sign up and then we're gonna go live. Otherwise, let's get into the video. Right? What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Unfortunately, the trade idea from yesterday ended up being a loss. So unfortunately, the trade IDPM yesterday ended up being a loss. I was looking for a couple of trades. I was on, you know, the VIP group trying to find a trade, but fortunately it just did not play out. But that is also perfectly fine because ultimately me being wrong on a short call means that the market is pumping. And so, so far, this is going against the weekly bias that we had in mind. And yeah, let's try to break this down, see if, you know, the bottom is in. Have we gotten some sort of reversal? And most importantly, I'm going to give you the intraday trade idea for today just so you know, you can take advantage of this pump now that it's happening. Right. Kicking things off on the weekly chart again, we have been looking for a bearish daily. Sorry, a bearish weekly bias. But so far this is, you know, kind of going the opposite direction at the moment, which, again, I'm really happy if I'm wrong on this because that just means that the market is going to go up from here, which is amazing news. Now let's go into the daily chart just to see what's going on. Even though we had a bullish daily close yesterday, it doesn't mean that in terms of the overall just higher time frame, we are already bullish. The reason for that is that at the moment, if you just take a look at the overall resistance that you have to run into, you have one right here, you have another one right here, and you have another one right here. That's just essentially a load of resistance that you need to overcome. But the first step to know potentially putting in some sort of button would be if you get a break above this level right here, which is $93,000. Once you get this, technically you could say that you are in a bullish changes state of delivery or at least an early one. Now if I had my pick, I would definitely say 95500. Now again, just because this level is hit does not guarantee that we are going to go up. You still need that higher low to get formed. That is where our opportunity is going to lie in terms of taking swing trades. You we get in there, it's very likely that we're going to be able to catch the bottom or at least catch the moment before price starts reversing in earnest. And but until that happens, I'm not going to be taking on swing longs just yet. Even though in terms of the weekly chart, we are in a key level. Just so you understand the grand scheme of things at the moment, this is a bullish order block. Now previously, every single time price finds some sort of major bottom throughout this entire bull run, it has been at a fair value gap. This is a fair value gap. And besides that, this is also a fair value gap. And if we do end up finding a bottom at this bullish order block, this will be kind of unprecedented. But, but still, it would be amazing news if this was indeed the bottom. But again, for reasons that I've already mentioned, you are overall still in bearish order flow. And that is not going to change until at the very least, right? If you break above 95500, that is going to be an early change in state of delivery. It is not confirmed change in state of delivery. So do not be tricked into thinking that, you know, the market's already bullish. So far we are still bearish. But does not change the fact that on the intraday basis we can now start taking longs. Because what we're doing on an intraday basis has nothing to do with the higher time frame, overall trend and market structure and this and that. We are simply looking to take a high probability trade, get in and out within a couple of hours. So like, while stuff on the daily chart may be good to consider, it is not necessary for the purposes of an intraday trade. This is something that I feel like a lot of people tend to get confused about which is the purpose of each time frame and what is the goal that they're trying to achieve. So often you hear stories about people who are scorping the markets and then they take into account the weekly chart. Like the truth is it's Just way too far away and way too zoomed out to be. To be of any sort of relevance. So going back into the daily chart, just understand that daily bias is bullish. And so now that we're on the one hourly chart, we are looking for PD arrays to support this daily bias. The first one is going to be at this order block starting from 91,300. In the event that you retrace back into this order block, you are going to look for a long. Secondly, you have this fair value gap right here which in the event that this order block fails and you come into this F gap, you will also be looking for a long. Now ideally, I do think that we want to look for this as the primary support because in the event that you close beneath this level, this will completely invalidate this trade idea. That level being $91,000. Basically you do not want to see one hourly close below this level because that means you have a change in state of delivery and price. Today is going to be bearish. Now there's one thing that I want you to keep in mind. Today is the fact that we do not have news. In fact, if I'm not m. Today is Thanksgiving. I don't actually, let me double check this. Is today Thanksgiving? Sorry, this is the Asian in me. Like I've never celebrated Thanksgiving. Yeah, today is in fact Thanksgiving. So this is a public holiday in the US which is one of the biggest financial centers in the world. So there's not going to be any news today. And you know the drill when it comes to not having news. It means that the probability of trades playing out, even if everything lines up on the chart, it just lowers the probability if you do not have news for the day. Now there are certain days where price is clean and you have news and boom, like that's when we get the best trades that we have ever seen on this channel. So the fact that today is an on news day, just like just beware, even if everything lines up, you still want to be cautious. And the way that I would just approach this, the way that I would just approach today is to take into account to the environment that I'm trading in, which is, well, it's a holiday. So whatever trades that I do decide to take, I'm just going to go half risk. And I need to ensure that everything from time to price is aligned before I get into any trades. But anyways, in talking about timing, the timing that we're going to be looking for today is anywhere between 7am to 10am which is just the New York kill zone. The reason being today we don't have news. So in the event that you retrace into either one of these levels and you start seeing a five minute change in delivery towards the upside that within that timing window, then yeah, go for it. I will of course be posting any live trades that I do take on X, so feel free to follow me there. Now let's get into Ethereum. Ethereum was bullish yesterday as well, but you have already filled in this favorite gap and so far you are going up. But unlike Bitcoin you do not have any sort of bullish order block at the moment. So I think the level for Ethereum is going to be pretty straightforward in the event that you retrace back into this be gap while sweeping out this low or potentially even just sweeping out this low right here. Both are valid levels. So you're looking at 3015 as well as 3. Well, 3000 basically or scenario number two is that you're going to get a break above this level right here. Closing above 3050 means that this is a one hourly bullish CISD and you're going to look for price to go higher from that point onwards. But the bullish bias is clear now, of course, as usual, like just a fun fact, most of our losses on this channel has come on days where, you know, there are no news and today's Thanksgiving, so don't be surprised if nothing ends up happening for today. Just be fully precad that today is going to be a no trade day with a public holiday. Right? This is as low volatility that the market is ever going to get, so just be aware of that. Solana, you're going to be just looking for a sweep underneath these lows, filling in the fairly gap. And that is the trade idea for today. But anyways, to you guys who celebrate Thanksgiving. Well, I've never celebrated any time in my life before but to those of you who are celebrating, Happy Thanksgiving and and I'll see you guys tomorrow for the final video before the big masterpass on Saturday. Cheers.
