Bitcoin: The Bottom May Be In, But Watch Out For This

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Bitcoin ended up pumping by quite a good amount over the weekend. And in this video, I'm going to break down if the bottom is in or potentially we're maybe looking at a little bit more downside before the bottom is truly in. And yeah, without any further ado, let's dive right into it. Also, last week's trade, just to break it down for you guys who, you know, ended up trying to take it, we had the fill of the one hourly fair value gap and then, you know, price immediately just shot upwards without giving much of a chance for us to go into a retrace, actually. And so ultimately, I think a lot of people would have missed the, you know, the entry, including myself, because I was at dinner. So once you got the actual cisd, price ended up, you know, just going the opposite direction. And so out of respect for that, even though we did pull the fact that, you know, would retrace here and you would eventually go up, like, the actual setup based on the system that we're trading here just didn't get fulfilled. And so that puts us at 122 wins over the last 154 publicly called trades here on YouTube. And overall, like, last week was just kind of a rough week of, like, what I've prefaced, you know, early in the week and throughout the week as well. That in the fact that we had so little news means that the entire week is not just. It's just not going to be ideal. The fact that we even got a couple of, you know, small wins from last week is already quite a miracle. But, yeah, you guys are now seeing a very clear example of what happens when you start trading or trying to find trades in low probability conditions. Like, yet, sure, it is possible to be traded. Is it smart to allocate, you know, mental and financial resources into weeks like that? Not really. And the truth is, you don't really need to be trading every single week. And like, one good week out of, you know, the month is really all you need to make a really good living from trading. But yeah, that aside, we're going to get into the setup for today. Let's just kick things off on the weekly chart because, you know, we need to get an idea of what's happening on the higher time frame before we can start looking at lower time frame stuff so that we don't get lost in the noise. So last week ended up closing bullish, which means this week we are looking for a bullish trade again. We are still in the process of bouncing out of this like bullish order block back here from the weekly chart. The fact that you did not close below this level here is a great time because we were fully expecting the weekly to close below this level. But so far, again, the buying pressure has started coming in. There are interested buyers to keep price above this level. And if you guys don't remember what this level is, it's the level where if you close below, you are potentially going to get a bearish CISD from the weekly chart. And at that point onwards, we're going to look for price to retrace into it before we start selling short. The fact that it is not happening, in fact, the fact that price is showing a pretty strong reaction to the upside, good enough proof that, hey, the market is likely to go up from this point onwards. Where's the bottom in? I don't know, because you're kind of coming into the second part of this equation in a sense that for the most part price has been, you know, forming a range, right? With this being the range high and this being the range low. Now previously, price ended up coming close to the range low and now ultimately price is coming back into the range high. Now. Now, the thing to keep in mind when it comes to this is that, is that when you get to the range high, the 80% of the time, what price tends to do is either you revert back to the mean or you go back to the range low. Now, granted the higher time frame bias, we are looking at bullishness. But in terms of the daily chart, you have in fact bought in a bearish change of state of delivery right here. So technically the daily chart is at the very moment a little bit bearish at the very least until you close, until you get a candle close above this level right here at 115k. At that point you can say, okay, potentially this entire block from 150k in up to 106k is going to be a new order block on the bullish side. So you can potentially look for a retrace into it right when you revert back to the mean, you are reverting back into just a level of support before price ultimately goes up. Now, this is not confirmed yet though, which is the only thing you need to keep in mind because at the moment you are sweeping into range highs plus filling in this bearish revenue gap right here, which so far, based on what we understand about these concepts, like the fair value gap, plus based on our understanding of ranges, the correct move to Expect here is for Price to at least give a pretty short term retrace. However, based on the weekly bias, based on all of these daily candles so far, the daily bias is still going to be towards the bullish side. And so we're going to be hunting for a bullish trade. It doesn't mean that today we are guaranteed to go long, but we look for a bullish trade for today. Before we get into the actual intraday setup, so important to first understand what is going on in terms of news. And by the way, I found out recently that the reason why Forex Factory was not loading for me, maybe because of the fact that I am currently in Indonesia, once I actually turned on the vpn, like started loading. So jokes on me because the entirety. Because throughout the entirety of last week I was like, oh yeah, you know, Forex factory is not working. In reality, I was the one who's not working. So let's just take a look at news. So Monday, no news, Tuesday no news. So ideally these two days are to be avoided because n actually comes on Wednesday, it comes on Thursday and it comes on Friday. So Monday and Tuesday may just be, you know, kind of like a setup kind of day where we have a bullish daily bias. Right now the daily, the weekly open is kind of here. So Monday, Tuesday, we may see price just, you know, dip below the weekly open to give the smart money, right? The people who are actually aware of what's going on, an opportunity to get in before price shoots up. Because before price shoots up in the direction of the weekly bias. And so this Monday and Tuesday is maybe even going to give us an opportunity to buy in low so that we can ride the weekly wave towards the outside is exactly what we got last week as well, where price. Let's take a look here. So the weekly opened 8:00pm all right, so this is where the weekly opened. And Monday and Tuesday you actually went underneath the weekly open. But then the rest of the week you were going towards the upside. This is known as a concept hold the power of three. And this is what we're kind of taking advantage of, just coming back down to, you know, the lower time frame. Again, just because we have a feeling or like this is a scenario that's likely to happen, doesn't mean that we're going to look to trade towards that direction. Because ultimately the trades that I'm calling here on these videos are intraday setups, which means we're opening and closing the trade quite literally within the span of hours. And so the setup for Today, intraday wise, we are still going to be looking for longs. It's not going to be towards the short side. Besides that, that theory that I talked about just now is just kind of like theory, right? It's something that I have observed over time throughout the markets that it's something that is likely to happen. But the market at the moment, in terms of order flow on the higher time frame, on the lower time frame, everything's pointing towards the outside. And so there's a difference between trading what we think should happen versus trading what is actually going on in the markets. And so we're going to stick to the second side equation, which is today we're going to be hunting for longs. Now in terms of longs, there are two key levels that we want to pay attention to. The first one is right here at this bullish order block and, and the second one is going to be this bearish, sorry, this bullish per gap right there. So in the event that in between the hours of 7am to 10am you get a bounce from either one of these levels in terms of the five minute chart, that is going to be your long trigger. Now I want to preface this again that today is not a high quality trading day. Now if it were up to me, I would not be trading today because we have no news. And I have a very clear kind of bias as to, you know, what is going to happen Monday, Tuesday, before we get kind of like a true move on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, essentially if we could have like a tier list of like what the quality of trading days today would probably be on the B side of things, right? It's not the worst, but it's not the best either. And if there are days where we want to be prioritizing our trading, it's going to be those A plus days. It's going to be those S tier days and that's going to be coming on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday again, your federal funds rate on Wednesday. So that is going to be huge. Like most likely you are looking at another drop of 25 basis points, which is incredibly bullish for risk on assets like crypto, bit, bitcoin, the stock market or whatever. So again you have a huge news event coming up. So Monday, Tuesday, if you can avoid it, just avoid it. There is potentially even a pretty high chance that we are going to lose today just because of reasons that I've already mentioned from before, right? You add range, highs, favority, gap, stuff like that. But if there is a setup, we're still going to take it only if all of the conditions kind of line up. So now that we're going down into the five minute time frame, the thing that you want to look for is at the moment 5 minute time frame is showing very bearish order flow. And you do not jump into trades until it starts going into bullish order flow. And bullish order flow is essentially when bullish order blocks and bullish favor gaps are being respected. So an example of it would be here, right, there's a bullish order block, price breaks out, retest the order block respects it, goes higher and eventually price comes back into this bullish order block and continues going higher. So this entire leg here was in bullish order flow. Now this entire leg here is in bearish order float because, well, bullish, bearish order blocks are being, you know, respected and bullish order blocks like this one is in the process of getting blown through. So between the hours of 7am to 10am, if you get bullish order flow, then you can go in, take a 2R, essentially, if this is your entry, you place a stop loss like that, you target for two R, basically two units of your stop loss. And if you have that, then that's done deal. Again, this is as far as trading days go, this is not the best type of trading day. And so you want to, you know, played accordingly, which is you take this a little bit more cautious, meaning you don't enter, you know, into huge sizes. And secondly, you take your profit a little bit sooner because there's no news and you're not anticipating a whole lot of volatility. And also lastly, just be aware that in terms of the high time frame, we have a reason to believe that Monday, Tuesday could be going down. Is that going to happen? Nobody knows. Which is why all of these confirmations that I talk about in these videos are so important. And ultimately, I am very responsible as the person making these videos to, you know, inform you of all the risks that are, you know, associated with taking a trade like this. And it would be incredibly irresponsible of me if I were to just tell you, okay, yeah, you just go long here and you take profit here. Whatever. I know that is what most people want. Unfortunately, that is a very irresponsible thing to do due to the uncertain nature of the markets. But otherwise, yeah, hopefully that gives you a pretty good idea for what's going on on Bitcoin. Now we're going to take a look at ETH real quick and taking a look at the weekly bias, you are still looking pretty bullish so you are also having a bullish weekly bias. Ethereum, by the way, is a little bit more bullish compared to Bitcoin at the moment, just based on how price action is shaping up. Although at the moment you are quite a bit away from this level right here, which ideally you want to close above this level at 4236 before you can say that you are truly in bullish order flow in terms of the daily chart. But still today we're going to be looking for trades towards the upside and this one is pretty clear. You have this bullish order, but right here. But most likely it's going to be this bullish for a video and if you fill it 7am to 10am, that is going to be the setup. Pretty easy. Now again, I say this time and time again, but you don't want to be opening long on both Bitcoin and Ethereum at the same day at the same time. Because ultimately if Bitcoin dumps, Ethereum is going to dump. If Bitcoin pumps, Ethereum is going to pump. Which basically just means that both of these assets are highly correlated. Which means if you take two trades, you think that they're different, but they're not. They're the same trade just with a different name tag on it. Solana also looking pretty bullish, but in terms of Solana, in terms instead of a further gap, you are actually looking at a bullish order block. In fact, from this point onwards, if you start seeing a shift bullish order flow, you are already welcome to start going into Solana. Basically, if you start breaking here, entry here, stop here, target 2R and you're going to be set. By the way guys, if you've been watching these videos for a very long time, I've never actually made a video like breaking down my exact system before, like in a step by step manner. And in the upcoming month on the 28th of November, most likely I will be holding a free masterclass on just, yeah, showing you guys exactly how to do, you know, what I've been able to achieve here on this YouTube channel. And if that is something that you may be interested in, I want you guys to sign up to the newsletter right now because they are going to be the first ones to be notified to sign up to this free masterclass completely for free. You've attended the free masterclass of mine in the past. You know just how value pack it is. So. So yeah, the earlier you sign up to the newsletter, the earlier you're going to be notified when you are able to sign up, but for now, that's it. Hopefully it doesn't rain because I would really love to go play some basketball. But not looking lunchy at the moment. See you guys. Day Cha cha.