Bitcoin: The EXPLOSIVE Move Will Happen TODAY

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday ended up being absolutely spot on. After I filmed the video, prices ended up going higher, as you know, as I called. So at least on the one hourly chart at the moment, it we are very much bullish. And a retracement into the CISD zone and potentially even narrowing down this order block here to the fair bit gap at exactly $108,100 would also provide us with a retracement opportunity for price to go higher. Ultimately, you did retrace back into the feverity gap where price gave you a second movement. So yeah, yesterday's trade was an absolute success. Called it once again. And so that puts our win rate up to 80 trades, one out of the last 95. No, sorry, 96 videos since I've made in February. And I tracked this publicly on Twitter. So feel free to check Twitter out if you want to follow along. But otherwise in today's video, like, let's just say that today is going to be interesting. Today's going to be explosive. The last couple of days we did not have much happening in terms of price action, but today I don't think it's going to be like today is going to be different. And the main reason for that is because there is FOMC today at 2pm and this piece of news is going to be paramount to understanding how price action today is going to be playing out. And as you can see, I have quite literally delayed filming this video as long as possible. The sun's about to set. But like, I need to film this now because I'm about to head out for basketball. But anyways, today has been a day that is completely uneventful, right? Nothing's happening. And. And this is usually very common for a day where you have afternoon news during New York. If you take a look here, news is happening at 2pm and the reason why news is so important is because I always like to explain it this way, right? You have three variables that you're always dealing with when it comes to trading. The first is direction, right? Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? Second is how far up is it going to go? Second is, well, sorry, and how far low is it going to go? And the third one is kind of timing. A lot of people tend to be right on the first couple of variables, but then they're completely off on the timing and then people think that they're wrong. And the third variable is the timing. Like, when is it gonna happen? Slash, how long will it take for the move to kind of like complete its move. And the benefit of having news is that the third variable kind of gets removed in a sentence because you know for a fact that something's gonna happen at 2pm today. You just gotta figure out if it's gonna go up or down. And that's what this video is going to do. So firstly, just to kick things off, recapping the things that we've mentioned in the last couple of days, this is going to be very important to understanding the overall flow of how we're going to be dealing with FOMC today. The weekly chart is incredibly bullish. Last week we filled in this bullish order block and it started pumping. And because last week's candle closed bullish, this week we are also bullish. But we did mention the fact that because Monday and Tuesday had zero news like boom, boom, there's no USD news. We did mention that Monday and Tuesday would be a retracement day. This is kind of like what we were able to do last week where Monday, Tuesday were retracement days before the rest of the week went up. So in this week, Monday, Tuesday ended up being just really choppy days. But we did get a liquidity sweep underneath Monday's low. And so this sets the precedent today for price to go higher. Now, we are also in this daily bullish order block at the moment and that means that more likely than not, price will tend to go up from this point onwards rather than down. Or at the very least, I don't see any strong signals that we're going down yet. And then lastly, yesterday's daily candle closed bullish, which means that our daily bias today is going to be bullish. Pretty straightforward so far. Now the straightforwardness kind of diminishes because you could argue that on the one hourly chart that is a bearish change in state of delivery. And you could also argue that this was a bullish change in state of delivery. Either way, the one hourly chart is not yet super clear in the sense that not only do you have changes in state of delivery in both directions, there is generally just not much clear price action going on right now where you are getting relatively equal lows as well as relatively equal highs right now, purely based off of the higher time frame. And this is something that I like to refer to whenever I am, you know, feeling a bit more uncertain. It's that, you know, ignore the lower time frame noise and focus on the higher time frame flow. And to those of you who have followed me for a While you guys will know, this method alone like saved us from taking so many back trades in the past and today's going to be no different. So overall higher time free flow is towards the upside, which means more likely than not we are going to be looking for longs. Right? Everything's kind of lining up for longs. Even though the lower time frame is showing a slightly bearish reaction, this all changes the moment you close above this level right here. Okay, that's going to be the condition for our entry today at 108785 or depending on what chart you're looking at, 108, 800. Just to make it simple, once you get a one hourly candle close above this level, that is going to give you the entry trigger to jump into a targeting these relatively equal highs at109,200. Now you could obviously go much higher than this today for example. This is relatively equal highs that were formed back last week during Sunday. Actually not even last week, just a few days ago. Essentially once you close above this, this will validate this as a potential bullish order block which is where we will start, you know, looking to position ourselves in the entry. Given the fact that right now it is already 6:30am New York means that, you know, the New York kill zone is about to start. Fun fact, if you guys didn't know what time is the New York killzone, it is 7am to 10am New York. Expect this close to happen sometime between those three hours. But then to expect the volatile move to happen closer to, you know, 2pm Basically you might expect volatility to come in starting, you know, 10:00am or 11:00am and this volatility should continue on for the rest of the day until, you know, 2, 3 and potentially even 4am like 4pm But I doubt it. Right. Probably 3pm is the timing that you're going to be looking at for today's volatility to end. Either way, today can be a very explosive move at the very moment we do not have like just 100% kind of like an a confirmation that we are ready for longs. Because at the moment this is technically a bearish cisd which we, you know, don't really want to see. When we're trying to take a long now before we get carried away with all of this higher time frame stuff, let's actually hop into the lower time frame to try to make sense of what's going on at the moment. So at the moment we have the Asia range and just taking one look at the London makes you Realize why I have tried to delay filming this video today. As late as I could humanly delay to. Absolutely nothing happened in London. Now usually Asia tends to be accumulation. London can either be a manipulation or a breakout, right? Because our overall higher time frame flow is bullish. The two conditions that would have really just screamed at us to jump into an entry right away would be London breaking out of the Asia high retracing. And in New York you get continuation to the upside. Second one is London manipulating below the Asia lows before New York distributes to the upside. Either way, like nothing of the sort happened. If anything, price has just been literally chopping around at the 50% line of the Asia range. You can take a look. This is the 50%. You have been forming a range during London. Right now you have swept out the range low. And for those of you who are familiar with volume profiling, you know that this is typical behavior when it comes to price finding a new of value area. So this is now the value area and right now you've just gotten a sweep below the value area low. If you guys learn ict, you will have heard of the concept known as premium discount where ideally you want to be going long in a discount and you want to be going short in a premium. When it comes to when you apply it to a volume profile, the premium does not lie within the value area itself. A discount is actually below the value area low and a premium is above the value area high. Although in this case, because our higher time frame flow is towards the upside, we are not going to treat this as a premium opportunity. We're going to treat this as a breakout for price to continue higher. Either way, like all of the like signs in the market at the moment is pointing towards one thing and one thing only, which is that the entire day so far has just been setting up for a potential big move during the New York session, which will likely happen after 10am just because of the fact that we have news late in the day today. And by the way, if you've been watching my videos for a while, you know for a fact that this is also publicly tracked. So it's not like I'm just pulling this out of somewhere. I have an 80% win rate on all of the calls that I make on these videos. Yesterday was a picture perfect example. If you would like to also read the market as well, as you know, I've kind of demonstrated, feel free to click the first link in the description box below to book a call to Boot Camp. We're currently about to open spots for the next intake. Do remember that we only take on three people each intake and if you'd like to work one on one with me personally to get to a point where you can be full time trading within the next 60 to 90 days, then big below and book a call. Otherwise, let's get back into the video. So I've kind of already painted out the exact two conditions that we were looking for. One is going to be a sweep of the Asia low followed by a change in state of delivery on the 5 minute time frame towards the upside. But if you take a look at the one hourly chart, actually even if you were to get a sweep underneath this level, you would ideally still want to see Price break above this level. 108800 before you start taking a long and remember News happens at 2pm today, which means that you have a lot of time and a lot more setup left before price actually makes a volatile move. So it's better to play cautiously. Wait for the right confirmations before you dive into the chart. Now again, it does seem like this break is about to happen soon. If it does, yeah, you guys know what to do. But if it doesn't, then expect this Asia low to get swept. And again, to confirm cisd. It is super simple. Just to give you an idea, change in state of delivery has to deal with order flow. For example, you can see that within this leg here Price was in bearish order flow because you know, price forms a bearish order block, breaks below, comes back up, fails to break above the order block, and then starts forming a new low at the moment. Price is at this bearish order block at the moment which is seeming like, you know, price is about to break that bearish order block, which means we're about to get a change in state of delivery to the upside. And that's all you want to look for, right? If you sweep this level, if you do not just break above from this point onwards and if you sweep this level here, then just wait for order flow to Change on the 5 minute before you enter and that is going to be all good. But just remember, like ultimately as a word of caution, we are still within the range and a lot of people tend to get completely messed up by ranges for two primary reasons. In fact, even one primary reason which is the fact that they do not realize that it's a range. Fun fact, 80 to 90% of your range trading losses could be solved just purely by identifying the fact that you are in a range. Here's the thing, when you are in trending market conditions, people are more inclined to trade as you go. Kind of like as prices make a high high, you make a higher low. You get into market when it's forming a higher low. But when you are in a range, that doesn't happen. Right. The, the whole principle of a range is that it's choppy, there's not much price action going on and so you get smaller movements and so you get small. What the. That's the guy that edits all these videos, by the way. He was like crawling at the. Crawling. What were you doing? Yeah, I want to take my bottle. I mean, I'm going to edit this out anyway. No, you're going to keep this in. Really? Yeah, for retention. Hi guys. By the way, guys, feels like this is a very natural transition into the vlog. The first episode of the vlog is going to go live this Friday at 1pm GMT on my second channel. You will find the link down in the. Like down in the descript. Sorry, you'll find a link to that channel down in the description box below. That's where I'm going to be posting all of the vlogs. So if you're interested more in just like personal life or like just day to day life of a trader who's also traveling, then yeah, check it out. The first vlog is going to be fun though. Definitely a lot of moments like what you saw just now. But anyways, yeah, as I was saying, yeah. When it comes to a range, just purely by identifying that you are in a range will fix most of your problems. Because in a range, price doesn't move as much. And so if you just unders, if you just are aware that you are in range, you're probably not going to be setting your targets way too far. So you're more likely to have your TP get hit and less likely to get stopped out before that TP gets hit. And most importantly, you will understand that within a range you have highs and lows. And the opportunities within a range lies within the highs and lows. So either you're going to get a breakout right break out of the range, or you're going to sweep the range low and then reverse the other way instead. Again, all of this is in line with the higher halfway flow. This is. You can already see these are relatively equal highs. And this is a strong low. This liquidity level here was swept, which means now this is a protected low. It's less likely for this low to get hit. Meanwhile, you have relative equal lows. Here, which acts as a magnet for liquidity. Over here you have relative equal highs as well. So yeah guys, overall like it may not be clear right now, but the moment you get a one hourly candle close above this level here, it's going to become clear. This is going to become your new order block. Feel free to start looking for an entry once price returns back in here. If you have bullish order flow on the five minute, that is your entry confirmation. Now potentially. Potentially, yeah, actually not potentially. Like again second scenario is that just sweep the age alone, you start going up. And lastly, before we end this video, we need to talk about the contingency scenarios scenario because as a trader it's always important to understand that the market is a game of probabilities and it is never like, oh, if I say this is going to happen, this is going to happen, right? Even I only have an 80 win rate. So the contingency plan in this case would be a one hourly candle closure underneath this low right here at 108 200. If you get a one hourly candle close below here again you already kind of have a CISD here, a bearish cisd, which also means. So now I have just received a brownie baked by. Yeah, no worries. You know, just now I was recording the video, Clarence was like crawling out from the hallway. I just heard like a, like a duck, you know, like hello Bianca, the hell are you doing? It was so funny because I saw him like he was like a crab. Yeah, now I get a magic brownie delivered to the desk. Maybe we should put this in the video. Homemade brownie. Thanks Giovanna for making this. Only thing better than a brownie is a keto brownie. Yeah, yeah, because you can eat and you will. But anyways, going sorry for the distractions in this video going back to that contingency plan if you were to close. So again you already have kind of like the first signs of a CISD here. If you go lower again and you break underneath this level that is undeniably like just bearish. And so yeah, if this happens, it's not like we're just going to jump into a short today again because the daily chart bias is towards the upside. I only take trades when all three time frames are aligned daily points up. At the moment, one hourly is about like is 20 minutes away from pointing up and the five minute is well very clearly pointing towards the upside. So yeah, this is already, you know, good enough entry confirmations. And even again, even if you get that contingency plan and you were to break below here. It's not like price is just going to reverse all the way today. At least the chances of this happening is lower Again. I do think that the more likely play is to the upside, but in the event that you get the downside, then yeah, we'll talk about this in tomorrow's video. Anyways, guys, going to head out for basketball. Peace out and trade safe today.