Bitcoin: The Fate Of The Bull Run Depends On What Happens Today

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today is the day. This is arguably the most important day for rest of the month. This is probably even the most important day that will determine what's going to happen to the bull market for the rest of the year. So what happens later at 2pm New York during the federal funds rate event is quite literally going to dictate if the bull market continues. Or potentially this is the top right here. I'm going to break it down in this video. But before I get into it, if you're new to this channel, just understand that you're probably at the right place because since I started tracking my win rate publicly since February, we're about 106 wins of the last 132 calls that we've made here on YouTube publicly. So more likely than not, we tend to be right more often than we are wrong. Yesterday's trade though ended up being a no trade for me. Not sure if you guys were able to take advantage of it, but personally I did say already that within the hour before news to the hour after news, if there was not going to be some sort of long position, then I am not going to be trading this. Whereas yesterday after 10:00am basically like 11:00am actually, that is when you started getting a long movement. However, I was already not looking to trade on that moment. So yesterday is going to end up being a no call, but today is very likely going to end up being a pretty good day. So let's get into with the video. So kicking things off on the daily chart, we got a very convincing close on the daily yesterday. This is what we wanted to see. If you remember at the start of the week I told you guys about this family gap right here that I expect price to actually fill. And because we were bullish on the week, the way that this works is that if you are bullish for the week, you want to look for opportunities to buy underneath the weekly open so that you can drive or rather you can ride price higher as it does its true expansion. And that's exactly what's happening right now where you get a dump to start off the week. We called this by the way. And then now you are showing a willingness to go to the upside. And if we go down to the daily chart, you will see that this bullish daily close means that today we are going to be looking for longs. And the fact that this happened so convincingly, it's also another good sign because now we have a potential bullish order block that we can work with on the daily chart basically. And this level right here, starting from 116,000 is now a bullish order block on the daily chart. Which means if Price were to retrace into here later before news, then we can have an opportunity to write this higher. But anyways, now that we understand what's going on on the daily chart, it's time to hop down into the one hourly chart. And again we are seeing another very interesting sign. You guys remember from yesterday we said that they may be a potential market maker sell model. The good news is that that is completely invalidated now, which means right now you are definitely looking much more bullish than yesterday. The second thing, which is what I personally love to see because we are bullish for today, is the fact that we just got a bullish cisd towards the upside and this is happening on the one hourly chart. If you guys recall, this was the exact level that I said needed to get broken on the one hourly chart, which is 116, 500 before we could be absolutely certain that okay, price is 100% bullish. Because prior to this happening, you could have still argued that this bullish order block here would have been where Price found resistance and Price start price could start to go down. This was also the argument that we made yesterday for the market maker sell model. However, this is now invalidated. And so now instead of treating this as potential resistance, we are now going to treat this as potential support. Which means that this entire block here that you are seeing right now is going to add as potential support if Price were to go into it. And of course the purpose of the one hourly chart is to identify other PD arrays that we can take advantage of. And to do that we are going to still zoom in to these couple of further gaps over here. So this is the first one where you can see Price actually already filled it once. However, this is can be like quite misleading because I don't know if you guys have seen it before, but fair value gaps can sometimes be filled twice or potentially even three times. That's not a bad sign. It means that you're sweeping out the liquidity. Basically, people that were certain that this was the bottom, they're going to be, you know, not placing the stop loss, they're not going to take profit or whatever. And then with that certainty we'll end up punishing them because once Price sweeps them out, they are going to continue back towards the upside. And the reason why we know that this is going to continue towards the upside, it was the same exact mechanism that I Used to predict that, hey, the start of the week is going to give you a false dump down below and then you're going to head towards the upside. This is known as the power of three. Same thing here, because we're bullish on the day, are not going to just let some kind of like sell side liquidity sweep change our bias because we know that our trading is rooted within the higher time frames. We're not going to let some lower time frame move just mess with our bias. Otherwise we're going to be changing our daily bias quite literally every five minutes. So again, going back to narrowing down the Fabrica, we can see that we can narrow down to there. So in the event that you retrace back to 116,100, that is going to be another level that you can take advantage of to take a long position. Now the other level is going to be this bullish order block right here, which is, which is starting at 115,900. So basically this like both of these levels are going to quite literally overlap with each other. So in the event that you're retracing to either one, you're going to be good to go for some kind of a long. Now besides that, I cannot also forget to mark out this one hourly bullish red block right here because with the candle close here at 1am, the liquidity sweep here might not happen. In fact, you could literally just bounce from price. Like you can literally just bounce from this order block right here, starting at 116,800 all the way down to 116,300. So by the time you guys watch this video and you get some sort of five minute change in state of delivery, which is basically like right now, price is in a state of bearishness. You want to see bearish order flow. Sorry, you want to see bearish order blocks get broken through. So for example, once this order block gets broken through, price breaks above, it comes back down to retest, it finds support, right? Basically forming a higher low here, then you form a new higher high. That means that bearish order flow has been overcome. And by the time if you're watching this video, if this happens without retracing down to these bottom ones, then that is kind of like your signal to jump into a long trade. However, there are a couple of disclaimers that I need to give you. The first one is the fact that news today is happening pretty late. In fact, it is happening at 2:00pm New York. Now, by all accounts, this is a very late news day. And what you tend to get on late news days is that Asia, London and potentially even New York Morning can become some kind of an extended accumulation. Meaning while our theory of this level, this level, and this level acting as potential horde is going to hold, the fact that the news is going to be dropping at 2pm means that the timing for when these moves happen may interfere with the probability of the trade setup. This is something that we have seen time and time again. Especially for those of you who have been following me for a while, you will understand that on late newsdays, right, we've seen this again. London could just end up doing nothing. Today's already different because London ended up doing something. But New York Morning could end up being an under manipulation. This is also one of the reasons why this was the first level that I pointed to, which is some kind of manipulation during New York Morning filling in the fertility gap before price shows bullish order flow. Now again, either three of these scenarios are possible, but again there is no telling which three of these scenarios that I've marked out is going to be the level that holds. And to be frank, it doesn't matter because the truth is that is not our job as traders. It's not about predicting where the bottom is going to be, is simply getting ready beforehand, preparing a few scenarios or preparing a few high probability scenarios, understanding the conditions that needs to be met before those scenarios are validated and then when those scenarios happen, it's simply a job of reading and reacting. That's exactly what I tried to do here on these videos. But if you would like to learn how to do this for yourself, and if you'd like to work with me one on one, yes, me and you to build out this system that's allowed me to acquire an 80% win rate over the last seven months. Feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise. Now let us go back to the higher time frames again just to see if there is any potential for invalidation. Now again, this CISD is so paramount because without the cisd, today would not have been so certain. There is a reason I believe that the CISD is happening right before this specific day. And if you guys have followed me for any period of time, again, nothing is a coincidence in these markets. The smart money and the big players, they have every tool and resource in the world to control the markets as they please. Whenever you see any anything that is looking a little bit too good to be true, there is often a reason why that happens. Again, CSD has already happened this entire block, starting from 116,400 all the way down to 114,600 is going to act as future support until proven otherwise. The first level that would need to kind of be broken is the price to actually start doing this. And again, this is why that 5 minute CISD is so important. Price could sweep all the way up down until here. But until you get bullish CISD on the five minute chart, do not jump into a trade. But for those of you that wants to follow along when I do some live trading later on, of course today's going to be a big day. No guarantees that I will be awake during 2pm New York because I'm currently staying in Asia, but I will try my best to keep you guys updated on Twitter at Underscore the Art of Crypto whenever I post any live trades, that's going to be where it is. Feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, like so far I hope I've talked through kind of like invalidation scenarios. Let's dive into Ethereum real quick to understand what may be going on here. So with Ethereum you have already gotten some kind of CISD there, which means that this entire block here is going to act as potential support. However, I do think that this is looking a little bit weaker compared to Bitcoin, primarily because like you have just you could make an argument that you were getting rejected from this fairy gap. And compared to Bitcoin where it's already pumped quite significantly, Ethereum has not yet pumped particularly much. This can be a sign that a lot more people are focusing on Bitcoin compared to Ethereum. And so if there is a world, I would probably focus more on Bitcoin rather than Ethereum. But otherwise Ethereum's already in some kind of a support level. If you start seeing Ethereum pump from here on outwards, this is going to be potentially the only scenario. Now Ethereum though has already formed cisd. So technically this entire block, much like Bitcoin, is already acting as support. So in the event that you see 5 minute CISD happening, ideally after sweeping out this low or bouncing straight from here, you can already jump into a trade taking a long trade following this previous high right here that you can see on the one hourly chart or potentially even going for the previous. Well actually I don't think that's the previous all time high. Yeah, it's not the previous all time high, but you can definitely target either one of those highs. To play it safe though, I would definitely do this. But to play it even more safe. I would Definitely just take a 2R and then looking at Solana, same thing here, it's not looking particularly bullish, especially compared to bitcoin. Yesterday you closed the daily candle towards the bullish direction and so far today you have been kind of numbing. So again, the CSD was already confirmed like a day earlier. So from this point onwards, this entire block here is support. So let's just go down to the lower time frames to see if there's anything interesting and not really. So, yeah, like again, the setup for today on three of these assets are going to be towards the long side. My only word of caution is that if you're going to take a trade, just focus on one. Today's going to be a very volatile day, especially once you get closer to news. The ideal trading hours for today is most likely going to be after 11am and potentially ending at 3pm so if you're living in Asia like me, chances are you're not going to be able to trade today. But still, it's going to be a volatile day. And the risk with talking about multiple coins every time is that if you end up taking like, let's say you take a long on all three positions and you end up being wrong once, then you're going to lose three times. That's the risk of crypto. It's essentially the same chart, just with different packaging and a different brand name. Essentially, if Bitcoin dumps, Ethereum, Solana, like, it's all going to dump. It's the same chart, they just called different names. So word of caution for you guys. Stick to just one trade. And most importantly, if you are feeling uncertain about how the market's kind of shaping up, I'm going to keep you guys updated throughout Twitter. But otherwise, I wish you the best of luck in today's trading. Today could either make you 50k or it can lose you 5k, can swing either way. I hope you end up on the side of 50k. And if you don't get an opportunity today, don't worry about it tomorrow. We also get to get news day and we have the benefit of seeing the price action that today is going to give us and we can react accordingly tomorrow. Remember, to make money in trading, it's not about taking risk, a huge quantity of trades, simply about taking the highest quality trades possible over time. Otherwise, guys, we'll see you in tomorrow's video. Ciao, ciao.