Bitcoin technical analysis showing a 77% win rate since February. The creator sees recent price action as a liquidity sweep signaling a shift in momentum, with an intraday target near $95,266. USD/CAD news this week could spike volatility.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. We are now in a new week and that means a new week of trading opportunities for bitcoin, which is what we're going to be getting into in this video. Before we get into it though, just wanted to share an interesting stat line. Ever since February, in terms of the publicly called analyses, basically YouTube videos, and these analyses that you're watching right now, I have been right on 42 out of 54 of them, which puts my win rate at roughly 77.77%. So the criteria for how I determine whether or not this is considered a win or a loss is if the target. For example, today I'm probably going to tell you that we're going to head towards this raw liquidity right here because of how the lower time frame and the high time frames are kind of adding up. And if indeed you headed in this direction and at least if you take out the target, that's considered a win. Now, I may, I may not always be able to give you guys the exact lower time frame entry because that would require, you know, multiple videos throughout the rest of the day to just to keep you guys updated on like, hey, you know, guys, we've just got the confirmation of the five minute chart. So it's not the criteria that we're using, but we are so far on a roll. Ever Since February on a 70, basically we're right 80% of the time. So for those of you who are not new to this channel, you already know that we have been on a roll. For those of you who are new to the channel, this is like, you're probably at the right place if what you're looking for is an analysis on bitcoin as well as in the upcoming days, I will be making more videos on altcoins as well, because right now the market is pretty much green all over the board and we want to be able to take advantage of these p as much as possible. So without any further ado, let's dive into this bitcoin analysis, starting things off on the weekly chart so far. We had a really bullish candle close last week. This will tell us a lot about what we want to look for in this week. But essentially this means that this week is also going to be bullish based on last week's candle closure. In fact, one of the most important things that you need to take note of with last week's candle closure is the fact that you've closed above these two bearish candles right here and rather convincingly even which now validates this as a potential bullish order blocking. So in the event that you do return back to this area, you can start taking 86,000 to like 77,000 as a potential support level. Now, what I'm not saying is that you are going to return back to this level because right now you are having a really aggressive move and I think the markets are going to continue giving you an aggressive move until otherwise proven. Now, one thing to keep in mind is that in terms of the weekly chart, you're currently inside this bearish order block, which means that right now, based on our trades, we're going to be taking it based on last week's candle close. Which means that at the moment, even though we're expecting upside for this week, like we might not just pump to 105,000 or like just form a new bitcoin all time high, basically. But at the very least, the bias is bullish. And the reason why we come up with the weekly bias first is because if we're bullish on the weekly bias, the playbook is going to be really simple, right? This is the weekly open. Anytime we get a buy opportunity underneath, the weekly open is going to be allowing us to buy into the low of the week, so that price will eventually expand to form the high of the week and then we might get the close. Basically what happened with last week's candle. Only the fact that you did not go underneath the weekly open whatsoever, but you eventually did expand towards the high. And then this is where you closed right now, new weekly open. If you get anything below the open, you're going to be able to write this move right here on bitcoin. Now, even if you're not trading bitcoin, you can use this kind of like as a guideline as to how you can play your coins. Because for example, starting to start today off, bitcoin actually went for a little bit of a dump. And if you take a look at the other altcoins, it's also a very similar setup, right? You take a bit of a dump, sweep out all of the liquidity, and now you're pumping by forming a change in state of delivery. So for now, let's remove everything. Also, just to touch on what we talked about yesterday, or rather last week, last Friday previously we were targeting $95,000 to be hit within the day and we were expecting price to target $95,000. And indeed we got that right before we entered into the weekend. So just one more to add to this scoreboard that we were right. So today what's happening right now is that you have this low right here that was swept this morning. So that is a liquidity level. So the fact that you have swept that liquidity level and you have given such a aggressive pump is a really good thing. Because right now, not only have you swept liquidity, but you are immediately forming what is known as a change in state of delivery. And for those of you who are familiar with the concept of a broken base, this is also a broken base where you sweep liquidity followed by immediate break in market structure towards the bullish side. And this is one of the most bullish signals out there. And so all we need to do is to look for some kind of a retracement to get into this trade. So if we were to look for somewhere within the premium, or rather the discount line, we would see that this blue box right here would be the ideal level to get into Bitcoin. Although it might not retrace that much because for all we know, there is a fair value gap already over here. Which means that sometime during the New York session, or maybe even just during the London session, because right now, as of the time that we're recording this, it is 3, 3am New York. And if you do retrace back into here sometime, anywhere between four to five, then you can totally look for an opportunity to, for price to just continue towards the upside from here on out. You do not need to retrace all the way back into a discount. That would be ideal, but it does not need to happen that way. Now, the only other, you know, concern that I may have is the fact that right now, even though you have swept that liquidity over there, you are leaving behind this liquidity right here. And these are relatively equal lows. And right now, this low and that low are what forms the relatively equal lows. Now, for those of you who do not know what the significance of rels are, essentially if you do not take them out, they will act as kind of like a magnet for price to return back to. And they act almost as a trap for, to trick retail traders into thinking that, hey, you know, we are going up, when in reality you may sweep this liquidity level first before going up. So that is the only point of concern that I'm having. Although in the past we did have a situation just like that where you have all of these relatively equal lows here, but then you did not sweep it. And the thing that happened here is also very similar in the sense that you have a sweep of a sell side liquidity followed by an immediate break in market structure. This is known as a broken base. This is one of the reasons, or rather a very strong reason as to why I am just leaning towards the bullish side immediately. Because, yeah, sure, you may have relatively equal lows, but at the moment the momentum that price action is showing is definitely pointing towards the upside. So what I'm going to do as a trader is that I'm going to read what the market's telling me instead of, you know, keep wanting to see what I want to see from the market. And this, by the way, is a very important, important skill when it comes to building a profitable trading career. Like you need to be able to have a bias, but then also be able to adapt and react accordingly. Speaking about these skills, in 12 days I'm going to be hosting a masterclass teaching you exactly the six skills that you need in order to become a funded trader. This is something that nobody really talks about. For those of you who have joined these free master classes in the past, you know that these are full of value and it's no fluff, it's no bs. If you would like to sign up and secure your spot for this free masterclass, then do so in the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, back to the video. In terms of the setup for today, again, it's just going to be retracing anywhere within here and that's going to give you the opportunity to dive into a long, you know, just continuing the trade. And I think that today your target is going to be 95,266 at least if things continue to go towards the upside. Now, as for whether or not the discount zone right here or this further gap right here is going to be, you know, the level to watch for. I cannot tell you that. Again, this is the limitation of YouTube. I cannot just keep making a video every three to four hours. The thing you want to look for though is once you are in a session, which is right now from 2:00am to 5:00am New York, this is the London open kill zone. And then you have the New York open kill zone for going from 7:00am to 10:00am New York, all you want to look for is for Price to return to any one of these fever gaps right there, it's another one. And then this blue box right here, it could be anything. All you want to look forward is for Price to return back to those areas at that exact timing. Now all you want to do is head into the five minute chart and confirm that order flow is there. That's all you need to look for. For example, once you get something like a change in state of delivery after tapping into this box right here, if you see that, then that's go time. That is going to be the level that is going to be respected. This is the importance of just preparing for multiple scenarios. And then once those scenarios just happen, all it boils down to is a game of reading and reacting. That is the way of a trader. It's not necessarily predicting like oh yeah, you know, this level is going to be, you know, the one that holds. Although I do have a strong reason to believe that this level right here is going to be a key level to hold for continuation because this is the point at the change in state of delivery. This is also a bullish fair value gap right here. And previously you have broken above this previous bearish order block which makes this now a inversion block or a propulsion block or whatever you want to call it. Basically the game plan for today is just momentum trading this towards the upside. So the only thing we need to keep in mind when it comes to news in terms of the USD and this is going to kind of like tell us when the volatility is going be coming into play. And all you have is today is all about Canadian dollar. The first piece of rent news that you're going to get in terms of the USD is going to be tomorrow at 10am so is today going to be the most volatile day of the week? Perhaps. I don't see any reason why this week is not going to be volatile because you have literally written news from Tuesday running all the way until Friday. And so right now just momentum trade this things are looking good. The weekly bias is looking good. Yeah, sure, we may be in a bearish order block right now, but at least for now we do not have reason to believe that price is just going to start dumping immediately. So don't worry about the Fearing greed index. If there is. If you guys have a question which is are we back or is this a trap then I think at the moment, based on what we see from price action and just the reaction of the general market right now, at least for now, we are back. At least until, you know, Donald Trump comes out and you know, changes his mind about the terrorists or whatever, next upcoming couple of months is going to be very exciting for crypto and that's why I'm going to be making many more videos on crypto in the upcoming weeks to come. If you enjoy these analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto, then subscribe because I'll be making new videos, but other than that, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye. Bye.
