bitcoin: the setup for today (+EUR/OIL A+ trade ideas)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. The Bitcoin trade set up yesterday, I really hope you guys took it because that was an absolute banger, right? Prices, like I told you guys, the momentum traded higher. That's exactly what happened. Now, to you guys who are following me on Twitter, you would've seen that I shared an idea on oil and Australian dollar on Twitter. Now, those ended up being a loss, but you know, win rate absolutely does not matter when the size of your wins are that much bigger compared to your losses. Because yesterday I took an oil trade, just like what I shared to you here on YouTube as well as Twitter. And kaboom, just passed a— well, at the moment this is the first phase of a two-step challenge, but still it's a step in the right direction. But outside of that, we break down the intraday setup of Bitcoin as well as a couple of other setups on forex that I'm seeing at the moment. Because like, and one thing's for sure, like the overall market has been, at least based on a preliminary analysis during the London session, it's not looking absolutely fantastic. So even with forex, there's really only going to be a couple of like core ideas that I'm going to be sharing here. But first things first, Bitcoin, we have a bullish daily bias. So we're definitely going to be looking for longs today. But the problem becomes the fact that in terms of the 1-hourly chart, you are most definitely showing signs of, you know, like you're just literally, the hourly order flow is bearish at the moment. And so this is not ideal for when we are looking for longs. Earlier on, like in the video that I made for the BluePin members, usually I do make an early kind of like trade analysis video. I told, I basically said that, okay, that hourly CA has been needed to happen. So far it's not really happening. If anything, it's kind of breaking lower towards the downside. But now, as for where this could be heading, is, you know, that over here you have a fair value gap. And could price, you know, potentially bounce after hitting the fair value gap? Well, yes, potentially. But that is also just an idea that we might have about the markets. So the ideal thing to do here is to let the markets tap into— let Bitcoin tap into the fair value gap. Then you really do need to see that hourly changes there in delivery on the hourly chart. Otherwise, like, don't get into a any longs because so far in terms of the 1-hourly, it is looking incredibly bearish. And that is not the type of price action that you want to be longing in because in this case, you're just literally buying into a market that is falling. And if the market is going to fall, then you may as well take advantage or rather wait until you can have an opportunity to, you know, actually follow the trend, right? And to sell low and then buy back lower. But at the moment, we're not looking for a short when it comes to Bitcoin. So in that case, like, just remain patient and like, that is the only possible setup on Bitcoin, at least for today. But you know, this is the power of having access to Forex, which is the fact that we have other opportunities when Bitcoin is deciding to, you know, just do nothing. So right now, let's take a look at Euro. So far we have a bearish daily bias. Today we had Euro news, and after the Euro news, like basically price retraced into this hourly PDA, right? Super clean. Yeah, absolutely. And then, and then at 3:30 PM, sorry, at 3:30 AM Euro time, we had Euro news. And ever since then, you got that CSD. I've already gotten into the setup. Again, if you're in Blueprint, you should have seen the video. But like otherwise, so far it's already bearish. So you're literally just looking for, you know, new PD arrays and new fair value gaps and whatnot to, you know, basically trade the market slower. And in terms of the intraday target for today, I'm going to be targeting, like my personal target is going to be about 35 pips away. So at 1666. So that is going to be the setup on euro. NASDAQ is looking pretty sketchy. Like you just hit, you know, new all-time highs. So it's very normal for the market to just kind of like, kind of distribute. And that is not the ideal conditions that you want to be trading in. With gold as Well, like, I see that, you know, the daily bias is bullish, but at the same time, the hourly chart is kind of breaking down. And because of that, I tried to get into a short earlier. Ultimately, it did not work out though. Barely got stopped out, and right now it's up, you know, into profit. But still, uh, now that the CSD happened, then, you know, this will be going against the daily bias, but which is why, you know, this wouldn't be the best trade. So I'm going to try to avoid this and just focus more of my attention on euro. But, you know, price starts looking good, this is going to be worthwhile for a half-risk trade. And the reason why it's half-risk is because you are— again, daily bias is bullish, but in terms of the 1-hour chart, it's already breaking lower. Um, the nail in the coffin for Nido to actually like confirm this is if we get an hourly CSD below 4700, basically. If we do get that, then yeah, absolutely, that kind of tells you where the market's heading. And but until that happens, I'm just going to play it safe. And even if I do get into the trade once the CSD happens, it's going to be half-risk because we don't have timeframe alignment in this case, which for those of you that are new to the channel, like basically we use 3 timeframes in the system, right? Daily, the 1-hourly, and the 5-minute. And before we dive into any trades, we ideally want all 3 timeframes to be pointing in the same direction. In this case, the daily is pointing up, but the hourly is pointing down. And so likely, you know, if we do take a short, then the 5-minute will also be pointing down. So we have 2 timeframes aligned, 1 not. So that is, you know, no timeframe alignment. And when that condition is out of whack, It doesn't mean that it is completely untradeable. It just means that we're going to play it a little bit safe and to wait for either more confirmations or to go half risk on any trades that we do take. Now, you know what is even more clean? Oil. Take a look at oil. Bullish daily bias. So far on the 1-hourly chart, you are looking bullish as well. You came back into this bullish order block. So far, you've even formed a new order block. So right now, right here, oil is already looking good for some sort of a trade. And in terms of 5-minute, like, yeah, you're just coming back into a really good state. So yeah, oil, you're just going to be looking for another new long today. In fact, I am going to be taking this trade right after I finish recording this video. And finally, I think we're going to finish off with, if I'm not mistaken, not Australian dollar, I think it was USD Canadian. Was it USD Canadian? Yeah, basically that's the two setups that I have actually. Yeah, the three setups, right? Bitcoin, which is kind of looking iffy, to be honest. So I think the moneymaker for today, like if I had to focus on two setups for today, it would be euro and oil with gold. Yeah, I believe it was gold. When I was talking about it. Yeah, with gold being kind of like an option number 3 in case, you know, euro and oil doesn't play out. But euro and oil would definitely be my go-tos. I'm already in a trade on euro and I'm going to be getting into a trade on oil very shortly. Probably not now because we're kind of outside of a kill zone. So I'll probably wait closer to New York. But any updates I will definitely post it on X. Although just a heads up, I do have a Blueprint live trading call later. Basically we're going to live trade together with all of the Dukian guys and girls. So if I do end up not posting anything to Twitter, just understand that I have a live trading call going on. I can't be splitting my attention in, you know, every social media platform. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video, and ciao ciao!