bitcoin: the setup is clear today (A+ day)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today we have another day of news. In fact, we have three pieces of news today that are all going to be dropping at the exact same time. And that means one thing. We're likely looking at a bit more of it a Thursday today compared to yesterday. And overall, I'm going to break down the daily setup and just tell you what to expect. Now before we get into it, if you're new here, my name's Schwen. I've been publicly documenting my trades over the last year and so far we have a pretty decent win rate. And so, yeah, all that means is I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So you're probably in the right place. But otherwise, let's get into the trade setup for today. And then I'm going to break down kind of what happened yesterday because there is a very important lesson that you guys can take from yesterday, including myself, by the way. But otherwise, let's just kick things off with saying that we are still remaining bearish for the week, which means that in terms of the weekly bias, we want to look for a downside expansion. Now, if you guys recall from what I said on Monday, any pumps above the weekly open would give you an opportunity to just basically expand towards the downside, towards the direction of the weekly bias. And this is exactly what's happening so far. Literally, we spent a few hours above the weekly open and then boom, right, right now we are dumping like crazy. So yesterday we had a bearish daily bias, but the, like, the true bearish expansion did not start until today. And the moment we go into the one hourly time frame is like, you can see that most of the downside move started at, well, basically the Asia session of today at 9pm in fact, 8pm is when we started dumping. And this is where we're at right now. Now, what you're seeing on the screen here is just a trade that I took on London just now during the boot camp London call. But otherwise, just to break down exactly what happened yesterday, if you guys recall from yesterday, one of the things that I mentioned is that you are still within a range. And it's not only it is not until today that you've gotten that range breakout. And one of the reasons that ended up causing our loss yesterday, even though, you know, we had news and we had the price action kind of lining up and the timing kind of lining up, is that ultimately this was a sweep of the range lows and then a slight little pump before the true move towards the downside. Now, of course it would have been ideal yesterday if we were just, you know, to just break down, right, to get the breakout, but unfortunately it happened today. But what's important to understand is that the moment we go back into our execution, like let's take a look here, this was 15 minutes away from news and we managed to get the five minute CISD followed by this black line here, which is the one hourly cisd. So in this case, not only did we have timing, we had time frame alignment, we had, you know, just basically all of the price action conditions like present. And as a trader, one thing I want you to take away from this is that you trade when the conditions are met and you do not take any trades when not enough conditions are met. In the event of yesterday, all of the conditions were met. And so we take it now. Just because we do everything right in trading does not necessarily guarantee that we will end up with a good outcome. It only guarantees that we are likely to, at least likely, er, to have a good outcome. Yesterday was an example of where there was nothing necessarily wrong with the system. It's just price did not end up going the way we wanted it to. And that is fundamentally not a bad thing because there is a difference between bad losses. There's a difference between good losses. In the case of yesterday, we focused on the inputs, we made sure that the input quality was there, but we did not get the output. That, that, that's fine, right? It's, it's a good loss. It's still following the system. Like even with my public kind of track record and Even with an 80% win rate, there is still about 20% of the time where I end up losing. That's like one out of every five trades that, you know, this system ends up, you know, not performing as well. And this is when you execute everything right and it just doesn't give you the outcome that you're looking for. But one thing I want you to take away from this is that losses are a part of the game. This is why people stress risk management so much. This is why the first, literally the first module inside Blueprint and Bootcamp is about risk management. Because it doesn't matter how many trades you lose, if you, you manage your risk like you're going to be fine. And chances are you're never going to run into a situation where you're going to get like a 10 to 20 losing streak without a single win. Have it, has it happened to me so far yet? Touch wood, don't have wood around me. Yeah, A single piece of wood around me. Oh yeah, this touch wood. That is not going to happen. But in general, like yesterday info quality was there, like we executed the way that we were supposed to execute. And once we've know, kind of taken care of the inputs, the rest is up to the market, right? Or as some religious people would say, the rest is up to govs. Because whether or not you're guaranteed the outcome that you're looking for like that, it's not a guarantee. So anyways, yesterday, you know, basically right now coming back to the present day is yesterday. I was expecting that breakout towards the downside because we had news yesterday and you know, price action was kind of lining up but ultimately we ended up getting price going the other way. But today, right, that breakout finally happened. Which puts us in a much better condition to take a trade today. Because if yesterday we were kind of predicting, right, we were kind of anticipating that range breakout, today we have already gotten the range breakout. Right now we just have to trade in a way that continues to move, that takes advantage of a trend continuation. And so that's what we're going to get into right now. So probably by the time that you watch this video, like what you really want to look for is a close below this level right here at specifically 66,800, right. If you get a one hourly close below this level, this entire block here becomes a potential bearish order block from where you can take a trade from. Now one thing to keep in mind is that the news window for today is at 8:30 as well. Which means that the ideal time when you want to get into a trade is the hour before news to the hour after news. So basically you don't really even have to look at the chart until 7:30am and at that point if you get that hourly close again, you're going to look for a five minute kind of like just bearish, some sort of bearish structure or in my words, bearish order flow. You're going to be good to go for a trade. Now one thing to keep in mind is that there is also the potential where price could kind of like bounce up to this velvety gap prior to dumping. That would obviously be not as ideal, but it would still be valid in the sense that if you take a look at the overall order flow, the huge CISD already happened over here, which means we're already in bearish order flow. Right now we're just looking for continuation of this bearish order flow that could come with Something like this. It could also come with something like this. Either way, we're going to be looking for shorts today. And let's just go into the five minute chart just to see if we can break this down a little bit more. Now, the moment we come into the five minute chart, this was the trade. I'll break down this trade close to the end of the video for anyone that is interested to hear a trade breakdown. But otherwise, so far the majority of the London session has been trading below the Asia lows. This tells me that there is a lack of interest to bring price above or like back inside the Asia range. Basically, you know, once you get a range breakout, the way that you kind of confirm if it's a breakout or you know, it might just go back and kind of reclaim the range is, you know, again a willingness to move back into the range so far that is not present. And so it leads me to believe that either we're going to be looking for just straight up continuation or just a slightly liquidity sweep followed by a breakdown. Now, now that I'm in the five minute chart and also like this has to do with the trade that I took on London today, I'm going to explain why I don't think that the second scenario is that likely. So you pay attention to the chart here. You will see that this is a fairly gap, right? This was the reason why I ended up taking the trade during the London session. At 2:50am we came back into the fab gap and then at 3am we managed to get the CISD over here. That was the moment when I decided to jump into a trade. That was the entry that was the stop loss and my target was just a little bit over 2r as you can see right here. So coming into this favorite gap, not only did you have one sweep, but you had a second sweep into the fab, which means that this right now is a strong high. Strong highs is just a fancy way, or rather it's a, you know, official kind of terminology to say that we don't expect this high to be re revisited or at least as long as the day remains bearish, we do not expect that high to be revisited. Now just because there is a higher chance that it's not going to be revisited doesn't mean that is guaranteed to not be revisited. I'm just saying this is going to be a less likely scenario compared to just breaking down something like that. Okay, not only that, but if you pay attention to the five minute chart at the moment we have a five Minute order block that is formed right here. So yeah, overall you're going to be looking for that one hourly CIC towards the downside and just continuation there down. Now of course as usual, I'll be updating any trades that I do take on Twitter. I do post all of my live executions and this is also where I kind of keep track of my wins and losses. For example, I think so far this week we've taken on two losses already or at least I'm on a two or three losing streak, which is not super typical of, you know, my system. But still, like for example right now, since I took a loss yesterday, I keep this updated every day so that you know the very least, um, there is a overall lack of transparency in the space and I hope to change that by at least just keeping, keeping a public track record. Win or lose doesn't matter, like it's just going to be here publicly to see and of course like you'll get access to the trade executions without needing to join some signals group or whatever, but otherwise just going back to the video, let's take a look at Ethereum. So based on Ethereum we are having a bearish daily bias, clearly. And so far this remains the in like the weekly target, right? We expect a weekly expansion to 1730. Doesn't mean that it's guaranteed to happen, but at least that is a target that we can aim for. Now secondly, in terms of Ethereum, not only have we formed that order block right there, but we have a hourly kind of fair biting gap that we can kind of take advantage of. So in the event that price retraces and once you get into that key timing zone, which is again, what is it again at 7:30 to 8:30 and potentially 9:30, basically the hour before news to the hour after news. Once you get that then that is your trigger. But if you see a five minute CISD once you get into that zone, that is going to be where you want to take a trade towards the downside. Now Ethereum could also revisit the fer gap, but as I've already explained on Bitcoin it is a less likely scenario because that means that you will have to overcome quite a bit of resistance on the lower high frame in order to get to that level. Next up we move into Solana. Solana. In terms of Solana we have a bearish daily bias and in terms of the one hourly chart we have a same, same, same exact thing, right? We have a fairly gap and order block con like order block kind of combo so yeah, overall today is just a very straightforward day. Now one thing that I do want to let you guys know, I have started going onto Instagram again, right. Like we've had a AOC training Instagram account for like the last two years but I've done absolutely nothing with it. I'm looking to, you know, not only start posting content to Instagram but also just get involved with you guys in a more personal level. That's going to involve a lot of Q&As that we're going to do on stories but also just like a lot of value. So if you guys are interested in just, you know, following along with more of the day to day and also just the more personal side of things whilst getting involved in some Q and A, I'll leave the link to the Instagram page down below, feel free to follow it but otherwise I'll see you guys later on. X. Ciao, ciao.