THE ART OF CRYPTO breaks down Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana technicals with a bearish bias. He maps order flow concepts like fair value gaps and order blocks, pins specific price levels, and flags the New York kill zone around 7-10am as a key intraday trade window.
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What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. This is a new week, which means that we're probably going to have some new opportunities. And let's just kick things off, not waste any time and get right into the bitcoin update. So let's kick things off with the weekly bias. At the moment, we are looking at a bearish weekly bias. Well, first of all, we came back into that prior fair bit of gap over there. We got rejected and we have been going down since. Which means that right now the order flow in terms of the weekly chart is looking exceptionally bearish. And I do not expect that to change until we take out some sort of weekly buy side or rather in this case, this is sell side liquidity. And so chances are like, until this level is taken right here at $83,000 or $84,000, you should expect the market to continue to be inside a downtrend until proven otherwise. And so right now, because of last week's bearish weekly bias, this week is pretty straightforward. We're just going to be looking for shorts. Now, in terms of the daily chart, this becomes even more clear because as you can see right here, last Friday we tried to break into, or rather just try to overcome this fair value gap. We have failed as well. Not only that, but in terms of the daily chart, you have already gotten a bearish changes data delivery over here, which means that overall you're looking pretty bearish. I know that nobody likes to hear news that new bitcoin is bearish. Now, I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, but, you know, as a trader, you got to trade what the market's trying to tell you, not, you know, what you would like to see. Obviously, we all hold crypto and ideally the market is always in a state where it's always going to go up. But unfortunately, like, at the end of the day, we got to be objective so far, like, everything's looking new, everything's pointing really bearish. I do not see this changing until at the very least maybe you break above this order block right here. All right? You flip this resistance into potential support, then it may be likely. But the problem with that is the fact that you already have relatively equal lows, at least from a technical kind of perspective. If you take a look at last Wednesday, we anticipate it, all right, Potentially price may be bouncing from the 0.705 and it will give you a small bounce. One of the other things that I mentioned was that in the event that you come back into this fair Value gap, we're going to be looking for shorts for price to continue heading lower. So far that has been the case, right. We did not break above the fair bit gap and did something like that. In this case, we got rejected. And so far these are looking more and more like relatively equal lows. And if you know anything about liquidity or how the market likes to move, you understand that relatively equal lows and highs are always targeted. Which means that in short, just expect the order flows to continue in a bearish direction until at the very least, right, you break above, let's say, $92,000 until that happened, bearish. And that also means that even today we're going to be looking for shorts because, well, the daily bias is bearish and we're already in bearish order flow. Now, I do have to preface one thing though, which is the fact that we do not have news today. In fact, we do not have news tomorrow either. The first piece of news that we're going to get for the US dollar is going to be starting on Wednesday and a Thursday and a Friday, which means that the highest probability trading days for this week are most likely going to come on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. That also means that if we end up just sitting today out, sitting tomorrow out, that's perfectly fine. Because trading, or rather making a really good living from trading, is not about taking a whole load of trades, right? It's not a, it's not a game of quantity, it's more a game of quality. And so if we can focus our, not only our attention, our time, our energy, but also our capital and focus it on the days that are going to be the most meaningful, well, guess what? Can make really good money, even just taking one trade a week. But anyways, I digress so far though. Just because today is not a news day doesn't mean that we cannot trade it. We just need to understand, all right, instead of going really aggressive and maybe we just got to understand that, you know, on a non news day, especially on a Monday as well, the market condition that we're going to be trading in is going to be slightly lower in quality compared to a news day as well as, you know, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, the way that we approach this is a, you know, instead of taking our usual full risk amount, maybe usually we go for 1%. Today we're going to go for 0.5%. Number two is usually if you go in at the earliest kind of confirmation today, you might want to wait for a double confirmation or just wait for a little bit more confirmation and this is the way that you adapt to the market conditions. So it's not set. I'm not saying that you cannot take a trade. I'm just saying we want to look for a little bit more confirmation. You know, outside of my mumbo jumbo. Just understand that we have a bearish daily bias. Price is currently heading back into some sort of bearish order block, which means that even right here, right now, you're already good enough to get into a trade. Especially also because the low in the kill zone so far has been sweeping above the Asia high. And so the condition I think today by the time you watch this video is that if you get a five minute candle closure being 87,650, basically you want to look for a change in state of delivery. Once that happens, wait for Price to retrace back into this huge order block right here, this bearish order block, by the way, and you're going to just trade things lower, especially as you form new 5 minute order blocks or fair bit of gaps. That is going to be the setup. Now I cannot promise you that I will be updating you guys on Twitter today because we've actually been kind enough to meet a local here in Taiwan and he's offering to take us out for some local Taiwanese food later tonight. Sorry if do not post a video tomorrow, like make sure you send help. But so far from meeting the guy, he's pretty cool, he's pretty chill. Famous last words. But like, yeah, just understand that you know, for today you're going to be looking to trade towards the downside and the setup overall, like outside of the fact that it's a Monday and it's a non news day, outside of that like looking super clear, right? In terms of following the system, you have a bearish daily bias. You have a bearish PD array that you know, Price is now tapping into on the one hourly chart. And in terms of the five minute, all you need to do now is to wait for a CISD and you're going to be all good to go. Now the ideal trading time window for today is going to be between 7am to 10am of course that is the New York kill zone. But otherwise let's get into Ethereum, which by the way, if you guys recall what I mentioned last Friday, I did mention that in terms of Ethereum versus Bitcoin, I would most, most likely lean towards Ethereum for a short. And if you guys recall, that is your CISD over there. It occurred during the news window which is at 8:30 once that happened. Kaboom, kaboom, kaboom. You would have easily gotten a 2R, potentially even a 3R like this year using the CISD right here. Setting your stop loss over there. Yeah, that would have easily been a 2R. Let me know in the comment section below if you managed to get that trade. But otherwise, let's take a look at Ethereum today and see how it's looking like. Because who knows, today might be another rare day where Ethereum is the ideal setup as well. Compared to Bitcoin so far, Ethereum, you can see the relative equal lows much more clearer. Like for example, you have 1, 2, 3 lows that are very close together. This is another way to say that I expect the market to sweep out the most extreme point of these lows before you know, we continue to move higher. Now one could argue that that low is at 2720. You could also go all the way down to 2620. So just keep that in mind. So far though, we are last Friday actually we confirmed a bearish changes date of delivery. In fact, we confirm another one over there. So overall the order flow on the daily chart is really bearish. Right now you are having a bearish daily bias, plus the fact that you have a bearish resistance over there that you can come back into. And that is going to be where you want to take short. And in terms of the one hourly chart, again the setup is super clear today where you're coming back into one hourly PD array. You could even argue that this level here is going to be resistance because this is kind of like the entire order block over here. And so the setup for today is super straightforward. It's just as straightforward as Bitcoin where you're just going to want to look for some sort of a short around the hours of 7am to 10am New York and you just need some sort of a CISD. Well, in this case you might even look for a double confirmation where if you usually right on a usual day, if you get a break below this level right here, that would be cisd, right. You could consider that an early cisd. Just like when I'm mentioned earlier, the way you adapt to market conditions that might not be as good as usual is that you wait for a secondary confirmation. So instead of going for the early one, you go for the undeniable one. And if you get a double CISD in this case right here, then yeah, just feel free to trade this lower for the rest of the entire day. And obviously with targets like just Target the Asia low or target anywhere that makes sense from an intraday perspective. Obviously you're not going to go for, you know, like the previous weekly low or whatever, but even if you target the low from Sunday, right, which is the previous day low, or potentially even the Asia low, or potentially even a swing low on the Asia chart, you're good to go. And as long as you're not being stupid and targeting something that's like a month away most of the time from an intraday perspective, that's really not too complicated. And obviously, like, if you're new to this, you're going to gain a lot more experience over time as you continue to do this. And over time, you kind of realize, okay, where is going to be like a reasonable or logical place to, you know, set your TP for now if you're still new, like, just stick to 2R, stick to the Asia low, stick to a swing low, and you're going to be all good. Now, in terms of Solana, let's take a look real quick. All right, so Solana, in terms of Solana, you have definitely swept out all of those relatively equal lows, as you can see over there. So Solana is looking quite a bit weaker compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin. Now, in terms of other lows that you can look towards, I think, you know, right now you could either be reaching towards 95 or you could could actually maybe, just maybe, fingers crossed, you might start to break higher. Although I highly doubt it, just because, like, in terms of Bitcoin, the weekly projection is that it's going to go lower. And if you know anything about crypto, you know that as long as bitcoin dumps, you know, everything kind of follows. So in terms of today, yeah, you know, Solana definitely pointing towards the short side with a bearish daily bias. And the fact that you are right now returning back into a Ferris fo liga and right now you're seeing a perfect textbook example of kind of like relative strength Ethereum is, you know, at this level, right, relative to the same looking chart. And meanwhile, Solana is just at this fair bit of same thing for Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin, Ethereum are a lot stronger compared to Solana at the moment. Not only that, but in terms of the daily chart, right, Solana is all the way down at the relative vehicle lows. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Bitcoin both have room to go. So in terms of relative strength, Solana looks to be the weakest out of all of this. So in today's case, I think the setup is also going to be pretty straightforward where, you know, 121.5. If you get a hourly close below this level, this will turn this into an entire bearish order block right here. And you can just trade that lower between the hours of 7:00am to 10:00am and in terms of the five minute chart. Yeah. In fact, if you end up breaking lower below this level here, right here, actually that could be still a little bit sketchy because like right now you have relatively cool highs over there. Like this high right here. If you take it like if you pay real close attention, that high was not swept. So you might, you know, return back to sweep out those highs before getting that cisd. Hence why I mentioned that one hourly cisd. If you can get that one hourly candle close, by the time you watch this video below $121.5, that will be, you know, kind of like that secondary kind of like undeniable confirmation where today's Monday, it's on Tuesday. So we want to play it a little bit more safe and make sure that we have more confirmation than we would usually now on a news day. Especially as an example, if you're 30 minutes out from news, if you're an hour out from news and you see like an early confirmation, it's usually pretty safe to like take it because you have news and the market condition overall in that day is a lot more higher quality. And so you can almost afford to get away with a little bit more risk and. Or the other way to think about it is that in aggressive market conditions, you want to adapt to the conditions accordingly by being a little bit more aggressive, by being a little bit more liberal with your training. But outside of that, guys, I'll see you tomorrow. Like, I don't know, like today, the setup is pretty straightforward, but again, just cautioning you, make sure you wait for confirmations and don't jump in prematurely. I may or may not be able to post anything on Twitter later. So most likely I'm going to be seeing you guys tomorrow and fingers crossed, I'm going to see you tomorrow. But otherwise, ciao, ciao.
