Crypto trader Schwen maps out a bearish Bitcoin trade plan for today's New York session, citing order-flow imbalance and sellers' dominance. He targets specific hourly and 5-minute setups with defined risk levels, and applies the same bias to Ethereum and Solana. The core rule: only trade when all conditions align, otherwise stay out.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. The editor is currently on a flight here to Vietnam as we speak. So this video is not going to be edited. So let's just dive right into it. I mean, to be fair, usually we don't even need too much in the way of editing because, like, believe it or not, I tend to be able to record these videos in, like, a single take. And I don't need no scripts or whatever. It's just I'm looking at markets. I'm delivering an analysis for you. And I've been doing this for, like, close to four years at this point. Actually close to five years at this point. So, yeah, pretty used to it. But anyways, in this video, I'm going to get into the daily trade for today, because let's put it this way, we have news later. Also, the market conditions today just looks a little bit more clear compared to yesterday, where yesterday we were, you know, kind of speculating between some sort of a range breakout or some sort of a range reversal. Today, it's a lot more clear. And then secondly, like, yeah, today is just going to be a lot more straightforward to anyone who's new to this channel. Welcome. My name is Schwen. I've been publicly documenting my trades ever since the last 12 months. And so far I have about a 75% win rate across 185 tracked trades. So just understand that I tend to be right a little bit more than I'm wrong. So if you're new here, you're in the right place. But let's just get right into it. Weekly bias. We are still looking at a bearish trade. And so far, yesterday, and so far, we're looking at a bit of a range breakdown at the moment where, if you recall from yesterday, we were like, okay, there is a potential that this could do this or it could just do a full breakout. It depends highly on how the daily candle closes from yesterday. And so far, it closed bearish. And so we're looking at a continuation type trade closing. Bearish below this level kind of indicates that, okay, price broke below this level. Initially, we saw that there was some sort of a buyer's reaction where, all right, price broke below this level. All right, the buyers are stepping in and they trying to keep the price above this price, but ultimately they fail. Ultimately, price continues heading lower, and no longer are there any interested buyers at this price. And so we can kind of take. We can kind of assume, and we can also see that sellers are in control here. And if, you know anything about the markets. If there are more sellers than buyers at any given point, then the market's going to go down. And if there are more buyers and sellers in a given time, well, the result is pretty obvious. So, anyways, today we are dealing with a bearish daily bias. So far, this candle close, again, signifies that the sellers are in control. Not only that, but in terms of the overall just kind of order flow, in terms of the daily chart, we are looking pretty bearish. So today we are going to be leaning towards a bearish trade. And the intraday target for today is going to be this low right here. Now, whether or not we're going to hit that low is yet to be determined. Right. But considering that we have news later on today, we could make a reasonable assumption that prices are going to be a little bit more volatile, especially compared to yesterday. So, just to give you a bit of context, though, the news today is literally President Trump speaking, which is, you know, as far as news events go, it's not necessarily the best, but it's not the worst either. We can just expect some sort of volatility to come from that. Now, whether or not their volatility is predictable is a whole other question because, well, you know, with one wrong word or just one wrong sentence from Mr. Trump himself, the market could go completely opposite to, you know, whatever is being priced in on the chart. Regardless, though, as long as, and I say this time and time again, where as traders, if we can boil down the profession of a trader into one sentence, because it's that when the market conditions, or rather when the conditions of our system are met, we take the trade. And as long as the conditions of our system are not met, we do not trade, regardless of what we think could happen in today's case. All right, yeah, President Trump's going to speak and, you know, he might say something wrong and then, boom, the market's going to go completely wrong way. Yes. There is always a possibility, just like how if you stare at a chart long enough, you will always have some sort of a reason why, A, you should get into the trade, or B, this trade that you are about to take is going to stop you out. Oh, it's liquidity here. Oh, support resistance here. Whatever. If you look at the chart long enough, there is always going to be some sort of reason that will cause you to either take a trade or not take a trade. So the key here is how do we systematize this process? We do this by clearly defining, okay, we trade when conditions are met. We do not Trade when conditions are not met. And if we keep it simple like that, trading becomes a whole lot easier. And it's much easier for you to get to a point where you are consistent as a trader. But otherwise, going down into the one hourly chart, what we can see today is that we have a couple of PD rays that we're working with. First one's going to be right here on this bearish order block. The second one's going to be right there on that bearish fair video. Now a third one which could be possible is that as price breaks lower heading into that news window, this might become validated as the third kind of order block latest this third PD array. And if that happens, then the trade that we're going to be looking for today is going to be towards the downside like that. So basically some sort of a momentum SL confinuation trade. Rather than waiting for a retrace up, we're just going to trade this lower. Either way, the ideal trading window for today is going to be the hour before news to the hour after news. So considering that news is going to be at 9pm, it means that the ideal trading time for us today is going to be starting at 8:00am Oh, I just realized something really funny. Oh wait, no, this cannot be possible. Oh, right. So yeah, turns out this whole time I've been completely mistaken by the fact that news is actually going to be at 9pm, which means it's going to be on the Asia session of the next day. This is going to be a bit problematic, which means that today we are actually dealing with a non news day. So, so whatever setup that presents itself, you're going to just want to be looking for this setup in between the hours of set 7am to 10am New York, because that's just in general the New York kill zone. Because we do not have a news window to take advantage of. This is the best that we can do. And so this means that the only pieces of news that are going to be coming this week is going to be on Thursday and Friday. Which makes this week potentially, which potentially is going to make this week a pretty quiet week as far as price action is concerned. So we'll just play it as it goes. Essentially 7 to 10am you're going to be looking for some sort of a continuation trade. There is also a potential, now that I understand that today isn't on Tuesday, there is now a possibility that price could just end up chopping around and not have too much volatility at least until, you know, President Trump speaks tomorrow. Because if there's one thing you need to understand about price is that news events and these, you know, economic calendar events, the reason why they're so important is because they're a catalyst for volatility, right? There is a when everyone is expecting, okay, CPI is in four hours, everyone's going to be looking at that event. And even if they don't know where it's going to go, people do expect that something will happen, right? Some, like price will move in some sort of meaningful fashion once you get closer to cpi. The strangest, when you do no longer have news, we have to trade with just a very general kind of like wide window. All right, between 7 to 10am if this happens, we take it, it becomes tougher to kind of narrow it down to a specific kind of like one to two hour trading window, which is preferable. But even if that is the case, it's not to say that we cannot trade today. It's just whatever trades that you might take today, take it with a bit of caution, potentially take it with half risk compared to usual. Now just to kind of like keep you guys updated, I will be posting any live updates or any live trades on Twitter, so feel free to follow me there. Fun fact, I do execute all of my live trades just on Twitter. If I'm not posting on Twitter, then you know, I'm not trading. For example, yesterday I already said in the video I was not going to be trading yesterday. But yeah, if something develops today, I will be on Twitter, no problem. So based on what we can see so far on the five minute chart, I'm just going to see if I can potentially narrow this down a little bit more into a more kind of like lightly outcome. Because the language that I've been using so far in this video is like, yeah, there's kind of a trade that's kind of in their trade direction at least is pretty clear though. So taking a look at the five minute chart, we can see that the majority of London is trading below the Asia low, as you can see right here. And it's definitely very nicely below the Asia mid range. So I think the scenario today is just going to be this one, right? Tapping into that hourly F gap and then breaking lower during the 7am to 10am window, then you're going to be looking to trade that lower. I think that is going to be the scenario. In the event that price just continues making bullish CISD heading into the kill zone or during the kill zone, then today's just going to end. Up being a no trade. Just be aware that this week in general we have very little news, which means the probability that, you know, whatever trades that you take with the system is going to be a little bit lower solely due to market conditions. So that's the only thing you need to pay attention to. In terms of Ethereum, I would assume that the daily bias is pointing towards the downside. It is. This still remains the daily target. And in terms of the one hour chart, we are looking at potentially a very similar setup where this is a order block that we're dealing with and potentially you might just break down lower and then this will become validated as in your order block. So that's just the other one that you want to pay attention to. So either you tap into here and break down or you break down and then you retrace and you are basically just looking for a trade towards the short side. It's pretty straightforward really. In terms of Solana. Let's take a look. The daily target has been taken. If you guys remember what I said yesterday, I would not long Solana ultimately, like both on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, any sort of longs will have gotten stopped out. Which again validates the point that I was trying to make yesterday where you kind of don't want to jump in prematurely. There are trading systems that thrive on jumping in prematurely. But at least for this system that we're using right now, one of the reasons why we can maintain such a high win rate is that we only trade the high probability days. And most importantly, we wait for all of the conditions to be met. And basically we wait until a real A plus setup forms before we got into it. And that's one of the reasons like just that discipline alone is what blocks allows me to achieve, like a very high win rate across an entire year worth of publicly documented trades. And anyways, I digress. Going back into Solana, we're looking at a bearish daily bias here in terms of the hourly chart. We're going to be looking for a short and just taking a look at price actions. Exactly the same as Bitcoin, except the February gap in this case is going to be narrowed down to here because this portion of the February gap has already been mitigated by this candle. So yeah, either you break lower and you go lower or you come down and then you go lower. Hideway. The trade for today is going to be towards the bearish direction simply because of how bearish bitcoin is looking. Also because of how just. Yeah, the Overall order flow not only on the one hourly, but also on the daily. In fact, even on the weekly, it's all looking super bearish. And so that is the direction that we're going to trade. The final kind of, like, piece of advice that I would like to leave you with is the fact that we all have opinions on where the bottom should be. If anything, I would love for price to just find its bottom and start pumping from here on out. After all, I am in crypto. I hold bags as well. But the truth is, right now we could be looking at a potential bear market. And even bear market aside, right now the market is on every level. It is showing that this is bearish market conditions. Price is in a downtrend. And when you're in a downtrend, the correct thing to do is to continue shorting, basically selling low and then buying back lower, rather than trying to predict where bottoms are going to be, catching, falling nice and getting burned doing so. And just keep in mind that the markets can be irrational longer than you can become. Well, sorry, the markets can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent. So just keep in mind, like there is no such thing as, you know, predicting bottoms. It's just going to keep going lower until price eventually stops. Then we're going to see some sort of a reversal signal on the daily chart, maybe some sort of change in order float. And at that point, it's never too late to jump back in. Rather than trying to catch a bottom right now and just paying for it in red P Ls and eventually potentially liquidations. By the way, I'm going to see you guys today on Twitter and cheers.
