The Art Of Crypto lays out a bearish case for Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum over the next 2-3 months, citing a strengthening dollar, Fed rate signals, rising Treasury yields, and tariff-driven inflation risks. The video covers short-term trading setups on 5-minute and 1-hour charts with specific entry triggers and targets.
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By the time 8:30am rolls around and you start seeing price start dipping on the five minute chart, that's going to be your signal to go short at that moment and you're going to target to R. Right. Welcome back to another video guys. Yesterday's trade was a bit of a banner if I do say so myself. Came back up into the order block and off we go. This is once again another example of trading what the market is telling us rather than what we would hope to see from the markets today. We're going to hope to replicate that success from yesterday well as the success from Monday. So so far we're on a roll, but we already kind of expected this because this week we have a lot of news incoming and on a week where there's a lot of news, the probability of this system that we're using just jumps by a lot. So yeah, definitely look to take advantage as much as possible this week because you know, this type of week doesn't come around every single month. But anyways, to those of you that have signed up to the newsletter, just understand that by the time that you're watching this video, the link to sign up to the masterclass will be alive. But to those of you who are not on the newsletter yet, and if you haven't yet signed up to the masterclass, I will put the link public tomorrow. But for now it's going to be first divs to the people that are already on the newsletter. But anyways, getting into the video today, before I actually get into it, just wanted to talk real quick about the dollar index because from what I've seen so far, the dollar index has now started to go into a bit of an uptrend. If you take a look at the weekly chart, this weekly candle close from last week has now cemented a potential change in state of delivery in terms of the dxy. And the reason why I'm mentioning this is because the dollar index is a very huge predictor of whether or not crypto is going to go up or down. Simply put, when the dollar index goes up, crypto tends to be inversely correlated, which means dollar index up, crypto down. This pump on the dollar index could be a reason why we're seeing bitcoin just not perform as well as we have expected it to. And I've did a lot. I basically spent the whole day researching this today and I think it kind of boils down to three reasons why this potentially may be happening and what this means for crypto moving forward. I'm going to get into the intraday setup in just a bit. But if you want to listen to a little bit about macro and how this is going to shape the next three months, then, yeah, feel free to stick around. So one of the big reasons why the dollar could be pumping right now is due to Trump, and one of the first reasons is going to have to do with inflation, because I don't know if you guys noticed this, but a couple of months ago, the Federal Reserve started cutting rates. And back then, their tone was like, okay, there's probably going to be at least two to three rate cuts before the end of the year. And now, if you notice, the Federal Reserve has taken on a much more cautious approach, a much more ambiguous approach, where, okay, maybe we like, it may happen, it may not. And what the big reasons why this is happening is because of Trump's tariff deals that he kind of brought up recently with China. Just to give you some context, the more tariffs go up, like, everything else just becomes really expensive, like cost of goods, you have to pay your people more, and, like, it just affects the entire supply chain. And when that happens, well, that's going to lead to higher inflation numbers. And the reason why this matters is because the Federal Reserve, like, one of their key tasks is to prevent inflation from running out of control, is to keep the economy in a state of balance as much as possible. Now, who defines that? That's a whole lot of story. But if inflation is about to go kind of rampant, the economy, you cannot lower the interest rates, because that's counterintuitive. You raise interest rates to fight inflation. So usually, you know, when the Fed cuts rates, that's usually a very positive event for crypto because, well, the dollar is going to weaken, interest rates go down. But that's kind of like what Trump is doing right now is kind of putting a dent into all of this. Now, the second thing that you need to understand is one of the reasons why the dollar is pumping despite the rate cut is could be due to another reason, which is the interest rate number itself. Like, it doesn't just exist within a vacuum. Interest rates are always correlated to the interest rates of other currencies. So just to give you an example, European Central bank, the bank of Japan, like basically every other major economy in the world right now, has a lower interest rate compared to the US Dollar. Which means that if you were to put your money into somewhere, right, to either buy US Dollars or, let's say to buy Euros, you'll get a bigger return out of buying US Dollars because you have a higher interest rates. And that could be a reason that, you know, even though the rate cuts are coming into effect, it is not lower than the other major currencies yet. And that's why people are choosing to go into the US Dollar. Third, it could be due to geopolitical risks. Right now the world is very much unstable, especially compared to just five years ago. And the more dangerous or like the more unstable the world becomes, people look for a safe currency to get into. Historically, that has been the US Dollar. That could be another reason. And fourth, actually, this should be going back into inflation because I completely forgot to mention this. In terms of inflation, we're already seeing that, you know, the smart money and the market participants are already kind of expecting inflation to go really high because the 10 year treasury yields right now are almost a percentage higher compared to just a couple of months ago. Now in September 2024, it was sitting at I believe 3.5 or 3.6%. Right now it's sitting at 4.3%. And what this means, right, if you don't know anything about this, is that when bond yields go up, when 10 year bond, when 10 year treasury yields go up, it means that people are either expecting a lot of inflation to come into the market or they're expecting the economy to grow this time around. Could you could argue that it's a combination of the both, but I think it's very much inflation fears at the moment. And so all of this is kind of adding up to the fact that, yeah, the rate cuts are coming. Usually they would be a bullish event for crypto, but because of what Trump is doing right now, we could potentially be seeing the next two, three months where the dollar index actually pumps rather than goes down as people flock into the US Dollar. And this is not going to change unless all those other factors that I mentioned changes. And so this puts a dent into this overall kind of bitcoin thesis where, you know, we're expecting kind of a new high. You know, people say pumptober, you know, pump November, pump December, whatever. Usually Q4 of new crypto tends to be pretty bullish. But this is very much a different story this time around. So what I would still say is that long term there is definitely a macroeconomic kind of reason to believe that crypto could go lower. But I would say that until we get confirmation, which I mentioned already in yesterday's video, that we get a candle close beneath either here or here, which is exact levels is 1-08300 as well as 100, 800. We can't really be too sure and we can't really just jump into like just selling all of our crypto right now. But what we have at least been doing is that, okay, over the last five weeks we have been shorting aggressively. Like to those of you who have been following this channel, you guys not only did not lose money, but you guys also made a lot of money because we've been calling every major dump and we're going to look to continue doing that. But just keep in mind that in terms of the macro now not a good time to be buying spot into crypto at the moment. I know people say, you know, buy the dip, but this is kind of the start of what could Otherwise be a 2 to 3 month dip. Like overall market structure is still bullish but still definitely looking a little bit shakier. But now that that's out of the way, let's get into some, you know, intraday trades because I'm sure that's what you guys are here for. So in terms of the daily chart, yesterday we closed bearish. So again we're going to be looking for bearish trades. And if you guys remember, I set these two as targets for yesterday. In fact, I actually did mention that this would be the target for yesterday. I'm super surprised that it actually hit because yesterday was a non news day. Usually on non news days, price tends to be a little bit choppier. It doesn't move as aggressively, but hey, it happened. So right now, even though the target has been hit, it's still a bearish daily bias. And so we're going to continue to look for shorts. Now it's never too late to jump into longs until at the very least we get a bullish daily close. Then at least we can jump into some, you know, a more certain move, a more certain reversal. That's a much better way to do it because ultimately we don't want to be catching bottoms here. My favorite sayings that I've said this time and time again, top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming cotton pickers because this is just a very easy way to lose money when it comes to the markets. So right now we move down into the one hourly chart to identify what sort of PDOAs that we have to look at. And the first thing that jumps out at me is going to be this F gap right here that we have filled during the London session. So now that this has been filled, sure you could still fill it again like just to give you an example this is, you know, potentially a high that could be swept as we head into New York. But right now there are two ways that this goes. One is that you have a, another leg up before you break structure, before you break order flow and you start heading towards the downside or with this candle close here. Technically, technically this is already a bearish order block which means that could just, you know, dump from this point onwards. Now I cannot predict what is going to happen like four hours later, five hours actually because right now it's only 4:00am New York, which by the way shout out to everyone on X yesterday that was reminding me that yes, daylight savings happened. So like everything's pushed back by an hour. So funny yesterday on X because I was like, oh yeah, Things already past 10:00am I'm not going to take a trade just to realize oh it's actually 9am There was a bit of a dumb moment especially because on X just a few days ago I was posting to you guys like, yeah guys, remember next Monday the clocks are going to shift backwards so be careful of that. And yet I was the one who fell for it. But anyways, that was a just a little side story. So yeah, I cannot predict what is going to happen in the next five hours but what I can tell you at least is that today we have news at 8am and 10am New York. This is amazing news because basically the entirety of the 7am to 10am window is going to be tradable for today. Today's a, A plus setup because well we have very clear daily bias, we have very clear PD arrays and we have a couple of pieces of news. So in the event that either one of these scenarios happen, you are all good to go for a short. Now this of course does not matter if you do not get Some sort of 5 minute changes data delivery. So even once these levels are swept you need to wait for that changes date of delivery. That's going to come as an example here where this becomes a potential bearish order block. For course this has already been blown through. So once you get this change state delivery, of course this has already been blown through potentially because right now it's the London session and it's not yet the news, you know, time. But as you get closer to news, once you see the behavior of price align with a specific time, that is when you know that things are going to go really well. Shout out to all of the comments that I got from yesterday about, you know, people getting huge wins on Solana. Congratulations in terms of Solana let's just look at it real quick. So far this is going to become the next kind of bearish PD array and with a potential video gap within that order block. So Solana is going to be the same exact story. Like you're just going to be looking for downside. I wish we could pump from this point onwards but in terms of Solana you're going to be looking for a revisit into the favority gap because over here you don't really have an order block. You don't get the order block by the way, until you get a one hourly close beneath 152.70. So until that happens, you're going to be returning back into the order block, sorry, back into the favorite gap. Back into the order block as well actually before downside. And you're going to want to look to take a trade potentially between 7am to 10am Europe because that's when you are getting news. Now lastly we're going to take a look at Ethereum real quick. Now on the daily chart you are definitely bearish. Like no question about that. In terms of the one hourly you are looking very much similar here. You have a order block and you're going to have a potential fair bitty gap as well. In fact, you have quite a few fair video gaps. That's going to be one of them, that's going to be two of them and this is going to be the third one. So yeah, lots of areas of resistance. Everything is still pointing towards the downside. I'm not looking to take any longs. I would highly suggest that you don't look for any longs today. Even if there is a long setup. Again, it's never too late to jump in tomorrow. By the way, appreciate all of the support that you guys have been giving lately. Like I read every single comment and much love. Anyways, I'm going to see you guys tonight on X. If I take any live trades and just a reminder, sign up to the master class, it's where I'm going to be breaking down this exact system that you've seen achieve an 80% win rate over the last, well for the better part of the last 300 days anyways. See you guys tomorrow. Ciao, ciao.
