Bitcoin broke out of its range with bullish daily bias. The trader plans a V-shape bounce using Fibonacci support at 0.705, targeting a 7 AM-10 AM window with order-flow triggers like CUSD crossing 67,100 and AC/ASD turning bullish.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Ultimately, yesterday we did not end up getting the setup that we were looking for, but today I think is a little bit more clearer of a day. Unfortunately though, this is a non-news day that we're dealing with, so potentially this might just end up being a no-trade day, or at least it is more likely to end up as a no-trade day. Either way, I'm going to break down the setup that you should look for today as far as Bitcoin is concerned. And yeah, let's just get into it. It's pretty straightforward. Today we have a bullish daily bias. Not only that, but we finally broke out of that range that we talked about yesterday. And if you don't know anything about the system, just understand that it does not perform particularly well in ranges. Not only are we going to get lower, like, amount of opportunities when you're in a range, but even, you know, when price ultimately heads in our direction, in which case yesterday it did not, it has a lower chance of playing out. That is just basic market conditions, right? Not every system is going to perform the same in every single market condition. That's like when you optimize for one kind of like scenario. When you optimize your system for, you know, trend trading, It's very natural that it's going to struggle in range trading, but either way, that's not the point here. The point is that we finally broke out of that range, and because we closed yesterday bullish, today we have a very straightforward opportunity where we're going to look for a buy opportunity below the daily open so that we can take advantage of basically a buy low opportunity to sell higher. Well, this is a concept known as the power of 3, where basically you buy below the daily open and you take advantage of the daily bias, which currently is pointing towards the upside. Secondly, we are coming back into the range from yesterday. So at the moment, this is a good opportunity for price to actually bounce out of this area. And essentially, if you were to draw a Fib from this low to this high right here, this would be kind of like a retracement. In fact, I am going to do that, and we can see that currently we're at the 0.705, which means that ideally, uh, in order for this long opportunity to still remain valid, you do not want price to go much further below this level. Ideally, by the time that you watch this video, price is already kind of showing a bounce, because otherwise you're going to start getting into the 0.886 territory, in which case it is now going to be considered relatively equal lows, and that is not going to be a good sign when it comes to a long. Essentially, once you get to, you know, forming relatively equal lows, it means that price is going to treat these three levels as the liquidity target, and it will head lower until proven otherwise. So in order for this long idea to remain valid, you do not want price to go below this level, and Taking a look at the 1-hourly chart, like, again, there's not too many more levels that we can kind of refine. Like, of course, there is a fair value gap here. Of course, there is a bullish order block here. Either way, all signs are pointing to the fact that if we do not bounce from here, then the long setup for today is going to be invalid. So far, though, again, this is the daily open. We have been trading the majority of the day below the daily open, so this gives us an opportunity for a V-shape kind of bounce. And taking a look at London so far, it is definitely not looking like a typical accumulation. Manipulation followed by a new distribution type of setup. If anything, this is looking a little bit more like an accumulation breakout and then continuation. But because of the daily bias pointing towards the upside, we are still primarily going to be looking for longs today. And I think one of the first signs that will make this happen is a CUSD above the 5-minute, well, above 67,100. And you want to look for this to happen on the 5-minute chart by the time you watch this video. By the way, today we do not have news. Well, we do have news. It's going to be on GBP.. But in terms of USD news, which is what we usually look for, we do not have that. So just keep in mind that the trading window for today is simply going to be between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. And obviously, it's not going to be as high probability as you would otherwise when you have a news day. And one of the importances of having a news day is that they tend to be a catalyst for volatility. When there is news, everyone and their mother is going to be looking at that piece of news and be like, oh, we have CPI today, so price is very likely to move. Now, Which direction price is going to move, that's a completely other question. But what's important to understand is that news kind of predicts, okay, there is going to be a reason for the market to move, and that ultimately, that's all we need as traders. We just need volatility. The hardest type of market condition for us to make money in is when it's doing absolutely nothing. There's no clear direction, there's no movement. That is the point when it becomes hard for traders to make their bank. And so today we don't have news, which means that just purely based off of market conditions, it is definitely going to be a lower quality market condition.. But either way, we're still going to try simply because, like, the daily bias as well as all of the other, you know, kind of criteria that I already mentioned are quite clear. But just understand, again, it is very easy for this idea to get invalidated as long as you go, you know, a decent bit below the 0.005 level, which is where price currently is at, which is like around 66,400. So the key thing here is to look for AC/ASD above the 5-minute chart. This is just to show that, hey, order flow is now back into bullish because so far But the entirety of the day, it has been forming bearish order flow. And until that changes, we are going to be a no trade. So if that changes though, then yeah, everything is going to go in line with the idea that I just painted out. And that is ultimately going to be the setup for today, which is again, very straightforward, just like what I promised. Now, let's take a look at Ethereum real quick. And it should overall be a very similar setup, except the fact that Ethereum, you did not get that CSD compared to Bitcoin, where you did in fact get the CSD. So just Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, like in a head-to-head comparison, Bitcoin is looking stronger for a long, hence why I would prioritize Bitcoin for a long, especially for today. Now, either way, you're going to be looking at a long for Ethereum. In this case, you're so close, like again, just to show you that level of relative weakness, Ethereum, you have already tapped the 0.886 kind of level, which means that you are now already forming relative equal lows. Now, of course, if Bitcoin does pump, then Ethereum will likely follow, although I do think that it's not going to follow as closely. Like, if Bitcoin dumps, then yeah, Ethereum is going to dump harder. But all today, especially for longs, I would prioritize Bitcoin. So let's move ahead to Solana. Solana, you are looking at a very similar setup. Again, this is another sign that altcoins don't really have too much strength right now. Just a lot of the attention is being focused on Bitcoin. And it makes sense, right? We're in a very uncertain period in the global kind of economy at the moment, or like geopolitics. But just understand, like, in times of uncertainty, people tend to go back to the leader, which in this case is Bitcoin. Like crypto is already a pretty risky kind of like asset class in general. And during times of uncertainty, people tend to focus more on assets that will give a little bit more certainty. It's the reason why you see gold absolutely just taking off right now. It's the reason why you see the dollar index actually pumping, even though like, you know, technically, oh yeah, gold goes up, dollar index shouldn't be following. And yet during times of uncertainty, people kind of like divert their assets away from, you know, the stock market or whatever and put it back into the dollar because that is ultimately a safe the right thing to do. It is kind of a move of de-risking. And that's why during these times Bitcoin will tend to struggle. Crypto in general will tend to struggle. Although Bitcoin at the moment, like if we are looking for a long today, it's 100% going to be Bitcoin just because like all of these other assets are way riskier, relatively speaking, compared to Bitcoin. But just one other thing is that we do have news for the GBP today and the daily bias is towards the bearish direction. So if you guys are trading forex, then GBP would actually be a solid, solid option. You have a couple of, you know, fair value gaps over here that you can take advantage of. Basically, you're looking for a retrace back into these fair value gaps for some sort of a continuation during that news window. And by the way, just so you know, like, we've got something big coming. A week ago, I asked you guys if you would be interested in some sort of a live trading event where I just kind of live trade the markets alongside you. The response was immensely positive. So yeah, we're going to decide to, you know, host something like that. Just stay tuned both on here as well as Twitter for any announcements, but it is definitely going to come. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you later on X. If there is some sort of trade opportunity, I will post it there. Again, all of my live executions are not gated behind some sort of signals group. It's just there for the public to see. But otherwise, yeah, take care, and I'll see you later.
