bitcoin: time to sell?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. I'm going to give you the intraday setup for today. It's definitely looking a little bit cleaner compared to yesterday because today's Tuesday and we have news which is very important. Now, before we get into it, if you're new to the channel, hey, my name is Schwen. I've been publicly documenting my trades over the last year. And so far, out of 175, actually now it's 176 trade calls. I have about a 79 win rate. So if you're new here, just understand that I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So you're probably in the right place. But otherwise, let's start by talking about the trade setup from yesterday. And like, there's a very big piece of advice I would like to give you. And from what I've seen on Twitter, as well as, you know, the YouTube comments, a lot of you have already thanked me for, you know, giving you the advice that, hey, you know, just avoid Mondays if you, if you can, especially on Mondays where there is no news. And this is a prime example of why you want to do that. If you remember from yesterday, this was around the time that I recorded a video where I called that, you know, price would come to this lower level at the very minimum and potentially lower, but it should come to here at the very least. Now, I was expecting that to happen sometime during the New York session, but, you know, that just ended up getting hit during the London. That is not the main point though. The main point is that even during the New York, on a very bearish day where everything in terms of the price action was pointing towards the downside. And then not only that, within the specific timing window that we were looking at, we ended up getting a 5 minute CISD just to get completely stopped out. Now, this is the reason why I always avoid, or at least I tend to avoid no news Mondays or just no news days in general. And this is ultimately the lesson that I'm trying to impart to you. Most, like traders or gurus or whatever, like most people just tend to focus on, you know, the price action, right? Oh, yeah. If this is happening on price, you get in. What they fail to consider is that the chart is made up of two axes. You have the x axis and you have the y axis. The Y axis is price. The X axis is time. The depending on what time of the day it is, or in yesterday's case, whether or not there is some sort of catalyst for price to move that greatly affects the probability of whatever thing is happening on price action. So just because you get, you know, everything lining up in terms of price action, but if you're trading in the wrong time or on the wrong day, then you end up with a lower probability. Yesterday was a great example of that. In effect on the flip side of things, on a news day where you know, people are expecting things to move and you know, price action, even if you don't get as much alignment in terms of price action, you could just end up with a banger trade even with a slight bit of confirmation because, well, the environment that you're trading in on that day is just higher probability compared to a non news Monday where it is fundamentally a lower probability environment. So same concepts applied in different probability environments greatly affects your success rate. Yesterday is a prime example of that. To the people, to you guys who ended up not trading and you know, taking my advice, great job because now you're coming in fresh into Tuesday where we have news later. And I'm going to break down the trade setup for today. Now just to kick things off, we are looking at the daily chart. So far we have a bearish daily bias because we ended up closing bearish yesterday. Also in terms of the weekly chart, just keep in mind that we are still bearish for the week. Which means that any pumps above the weekly open, which at the moment is at $70,000, you're going to look to short that, right? Basically short high so that you can get you, you know, you can capture the expansion towards the downside. This is exactly the same thing that I've called over the past like couple of weeks where this is the weekly open right here. You sell high just to, you know, take it low. This is the weekly open, you sell high and then the true expansion is towards the downside. So so far, because we already have a bearish daily bias, plus we went slightly above the weekly open yesterday, this already kind of sets the stage for a potential. Right, just potential dumb or just a potential beginning of the weekly bearish expansion. Now the one other thing that I must caution you about today, even though we have news, is the fact that this is very clearly a range that we are in right now. And to any of you who have followed this channel for a while, you understand that this system that we're using to trade here thrives on trending conditions where there is clear direction of movement and it tends to not perform as well on days where it's ranging, right? This system is fundamentally A trend trading system and just the fact that it does not perform well in ranges is not like a, like a bug, right? It's not like a drawback of the system. Because the truth is there are range trading systems and there are trend trading systems. The when you optimize for one you tend to not be as good and the other one, and it's not to say whichever one is better, it's you know, just different. So just getting back into it, you know, that's just one thing that we have to keep in mind. And so that's going to dictate a lot of the, you know, the analysis that I'm going to give you for today. So regardless of the fact that we are in a range, the daily bias for today is still towards the short side and as far as, you know, just bearish PD arrays that we can take advantage of today. We have a couple, right? The first one is going to be this first order block. The second one's going to be the second order block. Now on a retracement into either one of these order blocks you're going to want to look for price to break lower once we get into that news window. What is the news window you might ask? Well the Williams window is specifically 8:30am which makes it so that the highest probability trading times for today or at least a higher probability trading window for today, it's going to be the hour before news to the hour after News. So basically 7:30 to 9:30am that is when you want to look for price. So I've already gotten back into either one of these PD arrays and you want to observe price breaking lower on the five minute chart. Specifically what you're going to look for is a change in state of delivery. Now now if you do not know what is that, feel free to follow me on Twitter where I will be posting any live trade updates when I do get into those trades. Um, unlike a lot of other people I don't gate this behind some sort of signals group. It's my, my public execution is for all to see. This is also how I have managed to keep track of the you know, kind of win rate and the track record but otherwise like these couple of PD arrays. Now let's move into the 5 minute chart. So far the majority of the London session has been trading underneath the Asia which is great because like I kind of caught for this to happen. Like it, this is a sign that we wanted to see like when I did the preliminary analysis for blueprint students, as you can see right Here, the fact that you have traded most of London below the Asia lows or at the very least below the Asia mid range leads me to believe that today is going to likely be some sort of a Asia accumulation, London breakout and then New York continuation. So as you approach into either one of these inner PD arrays, you just want to see ACSD on the 5 minute chart and you know things are going to go lower from that point onwards. Now, as far as the one hourly chart goes, I think the intraday target for today is going to be just pretty straightforward. 67,000 if we get it. Now today could also just end up being a pretty boring day, which even if that happens, the intraday target on a conservative side of things should be 68,250. But ideally we get 67,200 is not a lot to ask for. It's just $2,000 price move, which on Bitcoin is pretty standard in terms of as far as volatility comes. So yeah, in the event that you close that you get a candle close above 70,500 or like 70,400, that would kind of signal to you that hey, our thesis that price is going to just come back into these PD arrays and get rejected, they are going to be not as valid. And in that case, we are not looking for a bullish trade today. And just part of, just part of how the system works, when we jump into a short trade, we need the higher time frame, the middle time frame and the lower time frame to all point in the same direction. If any one of these time frames go out of whack, that lowers the probability of the trade that we're about to get into. And if any of you know anything about my favorite motto and something that I always preach is that as traders we are paid based on the quality of the decisions that we take, not the quantity. Because you work more hours or you trade more days or you trade, like you said the chart, more hours compared to this other person does not mean that you will make more money. In fact, in most cases the opposite tends to happen where you will end up losing money rather than making money. But anyways, that is the analysis on Bitcoin. I will update anything on Twitter. Now let's take a look at Ethereum. Ethereum, we have a bullish daily bias. But again, if we are expecting Bitcoin to dump today, we should realistically expect Ethereum to also dump. Also, we have gotten a bearish CISD here on the one hourly chart at the moment. We are coming back into this F gap right here as well as, you know, potentially this order block and that F gap. Essentially the setup for Ethereum is going to be exactly the same as Bitcoin, where in the event that we come into this PD rate, as we approach that news window, we're going to look for a 5 minute CISD towards the downside. And then taking a short. And as far as intraday targets for Ethereum goes, I think 1967 makes total sense. Now Ethereum does look to be a little bit weaker compared to Bitcoin because unlike Bitcoin where you haven't yet gotten that CISD towards the downside, Ethereum already, you already have that cisd. So Ethereum should be pretty good for sure today, at least compared to Bitcoin. Both are valid, don't get me wrong. But otherwise the setup overall is going to be pretty similar. And lastly, as far as Solana goes, you're dealing with a bearish daily bias as well in terms of the hourly, you have not yet flattened that bearish cisd. So I think I would definitely prioritize Ethereum and Bitcoin over Solana today just because of how much more clear it looks. And in fact, case in point, you guys remember what I talked about on Solana yesterday? It's just not looking as clear as Ethereum or Bitcoin. And what ended up happening is that you got a CISD towards the downside on the one hourly chart and then just instantly get some sort of a V shaped recovery which is not always the easiest thing to predict or trade in the. Or actually trade. So yeah, pretty straightforward day for today. You're just looking for shorts in general, but otherwise, yeah, I'll post any updates on Twitter and I'll see you guys there. And now I have to go pick up my espresso machine. And yes, I love to, I love to buy espresso machines wherever I go because I love my espresso and I love to make it at home. See you.