Bitcoin: Time To Take Profits, Retracement Incoming?!

What's good? Welcome back to another video. I'm so sorry for missing yesterday. I tried my best not to miss like a daily video, but like, being in Hong Kong and like traveling all around and doing like just touristy things has really put me off track. And it's quite unfortunate as well because yesterday would have been a perfect bread and butter setup where you basically got an energy accumulation. During the London session, you came back down into some kind of bullish order block and then boom, the rest of the day it was just pumping. If I saw this, yesterday would have been an easy trade. Unfortunately, it is what it is. Like I wasn't. And yeah, even today, like recording this video a little bit later than usual because, yeah, just busy wolfing around, I guess. But anyways, I do apologize for the last analysis. That was a loss straight up. I. I followed the system instead of, you know, seeing or rather calling what I would like to see. It ended up backfiring. It is what it is like at the end of the day, like you win some, you lose some. And that puts us down to 90 wins out of the last 113 actually. So I think our win rate is starting to get very close to 80% at the mom. So, yeah, it's about to come down at some point. We had a really good run over the last like three, four months where we were right a lot basically. And we made a lot of money. To those of you who have been following this channel and you've definitely made a lot of money, shout out to you guys who you know, leave the comments. It really means a lot to me that when you leave comments and I do read through every single one of them, I just recently haven't had time to do that. But outside of that, let's get into today's analysis. So on the daily chart, we are obviously very bullish and we have already made a new bitcoin all time high. To kind of like what I was saying at the start of this week, we are definitely going to make a new bitcoin all time high this week. And the only thing that you need to think about now that we're here, even though yesterday's candle ended up closing bullish, it's the fact that you've currently, you know, formed a new all time high. And every time you do that, it's very normal to go through some kind of a retracement process. And we're already kind of seeing it today with how the Asia and the London have been playing out. And while it makes sense to Just say, oh yeah, today is going to, you know, just continue going up. It's also tough to say if it will continue today. But regardless, the daily bias is bullish. But we want to be a little bit cautious because of the fact that we have formed a new all time high. Again, every time you take out some old high or just form a new all time high, you tend to go for a retracement. It's just how the market works. And similarly, when you take out lows, you know, you go for a reversal oftentimes the other way. And so this is the only thing that we need to pay attention to, at least from the higher time frame perspective. Also, if you guys remember, earlier on in the week we were talking about how, yes, this week we have a bullish weekly bias. And as long as you get an opportunity to buy in below the weekly open, like check it out, right, we spent the first couple of days of the week pretty much below the, the weekly open. Even on, even yesterday we tapped below the weekly open. And so to those of you who took that advice to heart and you actually, you know, accumulated positions around these areas, if again, if you're a short term trader or if you're a day trader, then you would have made a ton of money. And that's just the beauty of understanding the power of three on both the weekly chart and the daily chart and then applying that down to the lower time frames. And by the way, if you would like my help to just teach you the system one on one, like, yeah, me and you then feel free to click the link in the description box below. But otherwise, yeah, back to the video. So the path three so far already playing out in the sense that, you know, you already made the new all time high. And so it doesn't matter what the next couple of days are going to do. Like, our objective at the start of the week has already been established or rather has already been achieved. And right now the only thing that we can look for is like, again, because we have a bullish daily bias, we're going to look for bullish PD arrays on the one hourly chart for, you know, just potential retracements. And in this case, we're going to have this one right here and this one right here. But the way that price action is already playing out is not looking pretty because like, you've pretty much closed the majority of the way beyond this bullish order block. So the market's already kind of showing you that, hey, there's not a lot of interested buyers at this price, if anything, everyone seems to just be offloading. And so what's going to likely end up happening is that you're going to get a one hourly close below this level right here at 128.50. And once you get a one hourly close underneath that level, that would mean that you have a one hourly change in state of delivery. And you're going to actually look for price to come up into some kind of bearish PD either at this F gap right here or at this F gap right here. And you're basically in a retrace and you're actually going to be looking for shorts. Now of course, for those of you that have followed this channel for a while, you know that PI frame alignment is a big thing that I look for when it comes to taking trades. I basically do not take trades if every time frame is not aligned with each other. And this is one of those moments, right, because the daily B is pointing towards the upside. We have reason though to believe that price is going to go down, but the time to act is, you know, not here yet. And some of you may be argue like, may be able to argue that this is in fact a change in state of delivery, which would be valid. Although I would ideally like to see this one get broken first before I even jump into any sort of shorts. This is just like the way I like to explain this is that this is the first confirmation. If you're looking for speed and if you're looking to just not miss moves at the cost of accuracy, then this is a perfectly valid thing to do. But if you're going for accuracy and jumping into the moves that are the most surefire and the most certain, then you want to wait for what I would like to call an undeniable signal. Something that, you know, once it happens, it's like, yeah, there's no doubt that is bearish csd. We are going to be bearish. And in this case, 120850 is going to be the level that I'm watching. Specifically you're going to want to see a one hourly kind of close beyond this. And if that happens, then this becomes potentially a bearish order block where, you know, this becomes like a breaker block or in ICT terms and you're able to take a short down to the lower levels. Specifically the levels that we would be targeting is going to be right here at $118,000. Because like these are just relatively equal lows that were left behind at the start of the week. It wouldn't be Surprising if we were to, you know, just sweep out everybody at these lows, especially people that got greedy and haven't taken any profits. They're probably going to be setting their stop loss somewhere here. Right? The psychology behind this is I want you to imagine that like anybody who got into Bitcoin at any point here would have gotten like a free ride all the way up here for free. And if you haven't already taken profits, then guess what, your position is going to be open. And there are market makers and big players on the other side of the equation that would ideally not like you to take profits and make money. They would ideally like you to lose money. And so, yeah, it wouldn't be surprising if you, you know, just drop the price in like reverse so that, you know, everyone here just, you know, panic sells and you ideally close out their positions and prices that are suboptimal. And so at the moment, this seems to be the play. Now again, I will personally not be taking this trade or at least most likely I will not be taking this trade for, because we do not have time frame alignment yet. But I think tomorrow is going to be a day that is going to be interesting to, you know, just jump into shorts. But just remember, like, in terms of the higher time frame, you're still very much bullish. Nothing's changed about that. Like you're, you're still all good. This is just a little bit of a retracement before continuation to form, like higher highs, basically. And this also just happens to be coinciding with the fact that you are entering Q3 right now, which tends to be one of the most bullish quarters of crypto or like the financial markets in general. You know, people say, oh, sell in summer and walk away. So far this has not been the case. In fact, it is not always the case. But still, like we're about to enter Q3, so that's a really positive sign in terms of what you want to look for. Like, if you were to get into a short today, right, let's say you are not waiting for time frame alignment. This is something that is specific to my system. You are very likely trading a different system. And if you are looking to get into a trade today, then the level that you're going to want to look for is going to be right here. Like, this is a bearish resistance level. Or like, to be honest, even the F gap above here is a valid area. Essentially you're going to wait for price to retrace back into the zone right here and you're going to ride continuation downwards or you're going to wait for price to sweep out these relatively equal highs and essentially sweep it out, fill in the photo gap and then go down. And of course, like, if you get into this, ideally you're going to want to wait for that one hourly close below this level right here. Again, 128.50 is the level to watch. If you haven't gotten a one hourly candle close below this, it's going to be a bit sketchy in the sense that this could just be some kind of liquidity sweep. For example, you have a couple of relatively lows here. It may just go for a liquidity sweep and the price actually reverses. So if you're going to take short for either one of these, you know, scenarios or like from either one of these levels, wait for that candle close and then you get in. It's going to be much more safe. And lastly, like, you really want to remember the fact that we have just gone through a very high volatility period in the markets in the sense that we went from $118,000 to $125,000, like a $7,000 swing in basically 24 hours, right? Starting from Wednesday 2am to Quentin's Day to 9. P.S. no, not even 24 hours. Like within the same day you went out by $7,000. And if there's one thing that you need to understand about the markets is that they always move from like price always moves from periods of high volatility to low volatility and vice versa. It's the same reason why people say, oh yeah, if you go through a long consolidation period, right. The longer the con, like the longer the range, the more explosive the move out is going to be. And this is very much the case. For once you get really explosive moves, you're also very likely to just go through a bit of a consolidation. So today could also just do absolutely nothing. And don't be surprised if that happens. But if it does something, I think you already have the game plan and thing. Just take a look at news. Today. We are going to have news at 8:30am and look for the move that happened sometime within. Well, at the moment I'm recording this video like 20 minutes to 7:30. Now just look for a move to happen an hour before news and potentially an hour to an hour and a half after news. If you get it, and if you happen to get the scenarios that are outlined here and around those timings, then bam. That's just a little bit of added confluence that a Newsday gives you. Outside of that, have a great day, guys. I'll see you tomorrow. Ciao. Ciao.