Bitcoin: Today Is The Day

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Today, market conditions are looking much, much better. And I'm feeling pretty confident about the move that bitcoin's going to make. And I'm going to discuss that within this video as well as give you this setup in order to take advantage of this move. Now if you guys remember from yesterday, I did mention that, you know, we have reason to believe that price would dump from this point, like this daily favorite gap over here. But then the price action on the lower time frame was still pretty bullish, hence why I wasn't super certain about yesterday. But the that still ended up playing out. If you guys manage to take advantage of that long move, take a look at what time the move happens. I already mentioned yesterday there was news. The moment news happens, boom, right? The volatility shoots up. And this is why I love trading news. And the reason why I would advise all of you to start trading on news days as well. Because let me put it this way, in very simple terms, right? The reason why you want to be trading on news, because you always have three variables at any given time when you're trading. One is the direction of price. Is it going to go up or is it going to go down? Two is how far up is it going to go or how low is it going to fall. And your third variable is timing, right? Timing when that move is going to happen and how long it'll take to happen. Now usually when you have to deal with all three variables at the same time, it can be pretty tough to trade. But the beautiful thing about news is that the moment you have USD red folder news, it pretty much tells you already that hey, price is very likely going to move at that exact time. Your job becomes to, you know, just determine what the other two variables are. And that was what we did yesterday. If you guys remember, we talk about how we expected volatility to come in during like 9:30 to maybe 10:00 clock and you can see that 9:30 is exactly when volatility began. And then boom, it lasted until, you know, 11:00am and after you took out the, you know, current daily high, previous daily high, then you started reversing. So yesterday, you know, was more of an uncertain day. So what ended up happening yesterday was that if you guys remember why yesterday was uncertain is that the daily chart and the one hourly chart were both pointing towards the upside. But then we have reason to believe that, you know, price is going to start going lower. So instead of trying to catch like being like super confident and like, oh yeah, you know, price is going to go up again. Because we didn't know that. And most importantly, it's understanding that the market conditions that we were at yesterday was not necessarily the best or not necessarily the cleanest. Like, I couldn't just take one look at that chart and be like, okay, yeah, this is probably the more likely, you know, move for today. And by the way, learning to identify market conditions that your system thrives in and being able to sit out when the market condition is not, you know, favorable to your system is one of the biggest tips that I can give you to, you know, become more consistent as a trader. A lot of people don't realize this and they think like, oh, whenever they go through a losing streak, it's just like, oh yeah, this strategy doesn't work. I need to, you know, go on YouTube to find something else. But in reality, no trading system thrives in every market condition. For example, my system has allowed me to have like an 80% call rate on YouTube over the last four months. It thrives when, you know, all three time frames are aligned, meaning the daily chart is pointing down, the one hour is pointing down, and the five minutes pointing down. Those are when the best trades happen, not when, you know, you have two time frames that kind of going up, one time frame kind of going down. You also have reason to believe that price is going to down. It's called time frame misalignment. And for me, this doesn't really work. And so yesterday was a key lesson to all of you who watched the video yesterday. Just understand that if you can learn to do what I did yesterday, where it's okay to sit out saying that, hey, you know, today is an uncertain market condition and it's probably just not something that fits my system. That's fine as well, like as long as you can identify that. Because if we take a look at yesterday, there was not a whole lot of an opportunity to take a trade. One of the things that is a necessity within this system is that you want to see this order block get broken through, right? This is where the, this was the exact condition that I mentioned yesterday. Guess what happened? That candle that, you know, broke this bearish order block ended up pumping like straight up instead. So I wouldn't have had an entry in anyways. And if I tried to catch a late entry, well, I would still be chopping around at the moment. So yesterday overall, like price action, we may have gotten the direction right, but like within the system, like there was nothing I could have done there. And so that brings me on to today. Today is a very different day. So just to give you an idea, what I mentioned yesterday to specifically look for today right now was that we wanted to see this daily candle close bearish. After tapping into the fab gap, this shows an indication that Price is not willing to break through this fab gap and invalidate it. Which means that with this bearish candle closure, we have a bearish daily bias. Okay, so the D1 is already pointing down. Okay, now let's move on to the one hourly. And the one hourly is also pointing down. Now, if it were to point up the invalidation here is super easy because this at the moment is the bearish order block. If you break above this bearish order block, then whatever I'm going to discuss in this video is going to get invalidated. And that's fine. Either way. This is a very, you know, low risk and potentially high reward kind of situation here. And so I'm still going to take this. So this is the bearish order block at the moment. We technically have a change in state of delivery. Although overall, like overall, if you read the market structure, if you read the trend or whatever, you are still in bullish order flow. This will change, right? This will 100% change if you are able to close on a one hourly chart below $105,000. If you're able to get a candle close underneath this level, then 100%, you're in bearish order flow. And Price will target this level right here and 103 and potentially even $100,000 in the upcoming few days. Right? But that only is confirmed if you get a candle close beneath 105 in order for our system and for this trade that I'm about to call, we have already met some of the criteria, right? It's not an A plus setup yet, but this has the potential to move, right? This is not an A plus setup, but it is an A setup. The way I kind of grain my trade IDs you is between level one to three. Level one is basically like there's just not enough conditions that have been met within my system to be like, this is a valid trade. So level one TLDR is their trade. Level two, which was yesterday, is that I kind of have an idea of where Price is going to go, but the conditions have not yet been checked off. So yesterday, if you guys remember, we were expecting Price to get rejected from this fe gap right here. But yesterday everything was still pointing up. And so we didn't take a short immediately that like if there's one lesson you take away from that is that you know, it's okay to identify that hey, things are still setting up and I'm, I can be patient for something to build. And today we have that building and today it has been built and definitely is much more high probability compared to yesterday because if we were to take a short yesterday, boom, we would have got stopped out immediately. And level three is definitely trade ready. And I think today is, you know, you're somewhere between level 2.5 and level 3. I don't think it is the level 2. Like ideally, ideally we still break below this first. But hey traders, sometimes we can be a bit impatient. But anyways like enough of things, like enough of the conditions have already been met on the lower time frame in order to potentially give us a beautiful short today. Just to give you an idea of what I mean, this blue box right here is a one hourly order block that price is trading above, sweeping above the Asia high. And currently price is showing a change in state of delivery. Right? This is not super confirmed yet but, but at this point right now you can already place a trade market order right here and you can just take profit at 2R. Like 2R will be the Asia lows or you can potentially take your profit at 105 or potentially even lower down to 103. Either way this is a seven hour trade. Now ideally like you want to wait about half an hour and potentially even an hour because we have news at 8:15 today and basically you just want to look for whatever happens in price as long as you do not have a one hourly close above this order block right here, price is very likely going to start showing bearish order flow towards the downside. Now it may not happen this cleanly because right now this is happening prior to recession, meaning prior to a kill zone actually. And ideally we want to be taking a trade once we are in the kill zone and that starts at 7am to 10am Ideally even we want to be taking a trade closer to news. But either way like the conditions are met for a potential Asia accumulation, London manipulation and New York distribution move today and the target's going to be right here at 105 with a TP2 at 103.6. I apologize that this is like nothing really happened the entire day until basically like 5:30. And I'm recording this video now at 6:30. I wish I could have came to you guys earlier with this but unfortunately there was nothing much for me to talk about here. So like whenever this video gets out to you guys like, hopefully it's not too late Essentially right now though, there is still a potential bullish order block right here. Sorry, bullish fair bit gap. So price could start, you know, showing a willingness to go up, but very likely like this or maybe like one more sweep above will likely mark the high of the day and things are just going to start breaking lower from that point onwards. Now, obviously you want to look for changes in state of delivery. You want to look for bearish order flow on the five minute before, you know, you jump into these trades. And even if you miss this entry, by the way, as long as price is in bearish order flow on the 5 minute, you can be pretty confident in trading it however low. Just look for bearish order blocks, look for bearish flo gaps to, you know, retrace into. For example, right now, this is a bearish order block, right? So the way I would place this trade is like that and really goes from 7R to 10R. And yeah, pretty straightforward right now. Just one word of caution that I could give you is that like this is a valid trade. I wouldn't risk more than 1% on this because this is not yet an A plus setup. An A plus setup would be like if today also closes bearish, then tomorrow 100%. We have an A plus, you know, probability kind of day. Until that happens though this is very much still early in the sense that, yes, we have CISD on the 1 hourly chart, but if you take a look at the overall trend, it is still in bullish order flow. Yes, we have changed the set of delivery on the 5 minute, but overall you are still bullish. Right? Although again, we have a reason to believe that price will fall from this level. And this is a condition that we have been waiting for since yesterday. Plus the fact that, you know, we're starting to get the early signs that makes it so that, you know, enough of these conditions have been checked to where we can take the trade. Just be aware that this is not an A plus trade. Do not risk more than 1% on this. I might even go 0.5% risk on this. But overall, guys, remember that while my prediction is towards the short side and I may be right 80% of the time, this can still go wrong. And the condition for this to go wrong, don't get me wrong, my call is still towards the downside. But this trade idea gets invalidated if you get a candle close above this bullish order block right here. If you were to do that, then what you want to look for is perhaps to retrace into this bullish order block right here to find support before going back to the upside, targeting the current daily high. Well, actually, is this a parent daily high? No, this is the yesterday's, the previous daily high. Now overall though, this is just a kind of like contingency plan because you know, as traders, we think in terms of probabilities, we think in terms of scenarios. It's not really about predicting where the market's going to go next, but it's just preparing yourself for whatever scenario can happen. And whatever scenario happens, you just read and react, right? And in this case, if this, then that, and if not, then this. Pretty simple, pretty straightforward. But anyways, if you guys enjoy these analyses based on the smart money perspective, if you like the simple price action training that I'm doing here, then feel free to subscribe and turn on the bell notification because I'll be coming to you guys every weekday with new market update videos. And other than that, if you would like to work with me personally, that's right, me and you, one on one to get funded in the next 30 days. Feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Check out what we have to offer. We only take on three people every intake, but otherwise I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.