bitcoin: today looks sketchy as hell (be careful)

This thing is still going to continue going down even for today. Like, we could go a little bit lower, in fact, all the way down to $63K and potentially even $62.5K because both of these levels here are liquidity levels. Now, if you were to get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above this bearish order block, now that's obviously a very bad thing if you are looking to go short. Whoever tried to force a move here is just going to lose money, and I don't want you guys to lose money. What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to get into the intraday setup for Bitcoin as well as potentially one or two other charts. One thing's for sure, today is a news day, which means that there is a very high likelihood that there is going to be some sort of quality trade setup for today. And you guys are not going to want to miss this. But to any of you here watching that are new, welcome. My name is Xuan, and I have accurately predicted not only this dump to basically like a 2-week kind of like accuracy window, but I also did the same back then in November. But I also did so once again back then during like November of 2025, and once more at around the start of this year. So, and all of this is like just publicly documented. Even if you weren't following me back then and you didn't manage to, you know, watch the videos that I posted, even if you just go back and look at the thumbnails, I think you'll get a pretty good idea at what I was calling for at around those times. But one thing's for sure, I'm right a little bit more often than I'm wrong, so you're in the right place. So anyways, before we get into the intraday setup, one thing's for sure that we do want to talk about is the fact that again, weekly bias bearish. This thing is still going to continue going down, and right now I don't think it's going to slow down whatsoever until we hit at least $65,000. And even if you slow down, once you hit $65,000, you're still going to rally. Like, it's not like you're just going to go for an instant V-shaped recovery. Why? Because if you just stop at that point over there, you're going to see these two lows here. What happens if price just stops here? Yeah, you have relatively equal lows. What are relatively equal lows? They are liquidity pools, which means that they almost act like a magnet for price to go towards them because there's just so many people like placing the stop losses underneath that level. There's so many people looking to, you know, potentially get in once, you know, quote unquote strong support is in. There are also people that are looking to short once, you know, resistance or like support, like you get the idea. There's a lot of interest at these liquidity pool levels. And once you're able to identify this, trading becomes suddenly a whole lot easier because you can start seeing like what the next move of the market is going to be. And this is also part of the reason why I've been able to, you know, so accurately kind of like predict these big moves and why I always seem to know where price is going to head towards. That's because I understand liquidity concepts and you can as well. As long as you understand a little bit about liquidity concepts. But with that said, let's get into the intraday setup for today. So far it's looking pretty bearish, obviously, and today is not going to be any different. We are still going to be targeting $65,000 until proven otherwise. And even for today, like, we could go a little bit lower, in fact, all the way down to $63,000 and potentially even $62,500 because both of these levels here are liquidity levels. And one thing you want to just keep in mind is that today is a news day. If you take a look at Forex Factory, you'll immediately see the fact that at 8:50 10:15 AM today as well as 10 AM today, you're gonna have USD news. What does that mean? It means that these are going to be your high probability trading windows. Usually the hour before news to the hour after news tends to be the highest, like tends to give the highest likelihood of a trade only showing itself, but it increases the probability that if you do take the trade that shows up at around those times, you will maximize your chances of actually winning the trade. So 100% for today, like the key window is gonna be between 8 AM all the way till 11 AM. Now, why am I not considering, like, you know, technically if we're supposed to start from the hour before news, then technically I should be starting to look at the chart at 7 AM. But the truth is, when you have two news events, like kind of like going back to back to each other, a lot of the times, right, at least based on what we've been able to observe so far throughout our trading experience, that there are a lot more of that volatility tends to be concentrated at around the second news window or after that second news window. So oftentimes that first news window almost becomes like a decoy where you might enter early,, and then it'll just chop around all the way until 10 AM. That second news will drop and kaboom, that's when things start to move. If you've observed this pattern before, feel free to drop it down in the comment section below. But this is something that we regularly see, not only from this YouTube channel, but like we do quite a few live trading flows. In fact, I'm going to be doing a live trading flow for my students tonight where we're basically going to be live trading this, you know, news session. And one of the things we commonly find is that this is a scenario that plays out more often than not. So We're not going to count on the time before 8 AM as kind of like a high probability window. Hopefully I don't eat my words, but like just based on experience, right? It's more likely than not that if you focus on 8 AM to potentially 10:30 AM, I think that's going to be your highest probability time windows. And why waste time looking at the charts when nothing's happening when you could kind of narrow that time down? You spend less time and the time that you spend is much more productive. So either way, let's come down. Just coming back onto Bitcoin, we're definitely going short today, or at the very least we are going to be looking for shorts. Whether or not we get in, is a completely other story. But at the very least, from the higher timeframe, not on this— like, just purely from the weekly and even the daily, definitely like pointing towards the downside. And as long as the lower timeframes are aligned with that direction, meaning like one of the things that immediately stands out to me is this level right here on the 1-hourly chart, where at the moment, right, price is trading into a bearish order block. This bearish order block is this blue box right here. Now, if you were to get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above this bearish order block, now that's obviously a very bad thing if you are looking to go short because it shows that not only has price completely invalidated one bearish order block, but it's invalidated two. And so right now, if that happens, right, if that happens, it basically means that your daily and the weekly is pointing towards the downside, but you don't have alignment from your lower timeframe. In this case, that's the 1-hourly chart. And what happens then? Well, it's quite simple really. We try not to trade that. Why? Because as traders, the trend is our friend. The easiest trades that we have ever gotten Throughout the history of this channel, the most money that I've ever made in my life, and also like the easiest money that I've ever made in my life when it comes to trading, are always the ones where everyone can clearly see, okay, things are going to go down. And instead of trying to trade the up days, because we all know that the up days are just going to be a retracement before some sort of explosive movement down, we will wait for that retracement period to be over. Then we take advantage of that explosive move. That's how you get like trades that just seem so easy. Like, whoa, why didn't I catch that? Or like when you're in the trade, whoa, the TP just gets hit. Almost instantly, cleanly. In fact, it even goes beyond what you're looking for. Well, that's something that tends to happen when you happen to be aligning yourself in the direction of the trend. So, and just to, you know, give you guys a little bit more alpha, one of the reasons why you never want to be trading retracements is because, like, if we just look at, you know, just throughout this entire downtrend here, right, I want you to start to see the trends of, you know, if we were to compare down moves, like for example this one right here, We dropped 5% in the span of about a day and 15 hours. Now, how long does the retracement take and how much is the magnitude of the move? Well, exactly the same magnitude, right? A 5% movement as well, but it takes double the amount of time. Now let's do another example. Now this entire drop here took— well, that's a 7% drop over the course of about 2 days. And what happens when we go start counting from the retracement? Price pumps 2% over the course of 3.5 days. So more than double, almost double the time, but less than half of the amount of volatility. And throughout this entire period, you're just going to have so much chop that even if you were to predict, you know, the right direction, chances of you getting chopped out before the move happens is pretty high as well. So just because there's movement in the market doesn't mean it's a good thing. So what I'm trying to say here is that just because there's movement in the market doesn't mean you should take advantage of it, or doesn't mean you should look to do something with it. If the market is in an overall downtrend and there is an upwards movement, chances are it's not going to be a reversal. It's going to be a retracement. These retracement periods are just like— if you've been struggling and not seeing quite good results from your trading, especially like you're able to identify the overall direction but you just happen to catch yourself on the wrong side of the move pretty often, or maybe you jump into a trade and you get, you know, kind of chopped out and you realize nothing really happens, it's good to reflect on whether or not you were trading in the direction of the trend, because if you weren't, that could be why. Retracement periods are just like— if any You know, any kind of like trader that has spent a decent amount of time doing this will be the first to tell you that the trend is your friend. If you just trade with the trend, like that's when trading becomes easy. So in the event that you get a kind of close above this, it's not to say that this idea becomes completely invalidated, but like it's not what we want to see. And we would rather just wait for today. Like if today ends up being a retracement day, which we can't really predict, like we can see that there are signs that it's potentially starting where you have an initial change of state delivery right here. But if you get that second sign as well, then yeah, you can reasonably anticipate that today is going to be a retracement day. And when you have retracement days, the correct thing to do is to simply move on to another asset that you can identify is moving in the direction of whatever trend that asset is in, which I'm going to get into in a bit. And for this pair that is currently in a retracement move, you simply leave it alone and come check back tomorrow, because that is how you do trading, right? Not every day is a trading day. Sometimes the setup's not there. Guess what? You wait for tomorrow. Boom. Right? Much better entry. You're probably going to make way more money. And whoever tried to force a move here is just going to lose money. And I don't want you guys to lose money. That's why I'm always going to tell you things straight up as it is, just objectively. As much as I would love to always be able to give you guys a trade every single day, the reality is quite a few days are just no-trade days. Not because the system sucks, not because I suck at trading. It's because I know exactly what I'm looking for. And if it's not there, we don't trade. And that's also how I've been able to maintain a pretty high win rate, more than 70% for, at this point, what, for 1.5 years so far? Yeah, these results don't just come by accident. By the way, like, if you do not get that 1-hourly CSD towards the upside, this is going to be a fully valid trade. And all you're going to want to look for is within that news timing, you're going to want to look for price to, you know, just break down. Like, as an example here, you're going to look for a CSD on the 5-minute chart, just within the current context of where price currently is. You just want to see it break down. During that news window that I talked about, and you're good to go. Once you get that CUSD, literally enter, place a stop above a recent swing high, and kaboom, target 2R, and you're set. Obviously, you can go a little bit further than that. I've already established the fact that $65,000 is a pretty reasonable target, and there are chances where you could go as low as $63,000 or $62,500. Am I going to count on that? Absolutely not. Why? Because the average daily volatility so far has been hovering between $2,000 to $3,000, and just to start today, I think we already have— oh wait, no, yeah, okay, in this sense, $63,000 is actually perfectly valid. Um, $65,000, 100%, right? If we do get a down move, I think it goes beyond a shadow of a doubt that this will happen, but only if we get a down move confirmation. Again, we don't want to be jumping into trades where the higher time frame is misaligned with the lower time frame and vice versa. But otherwise, you guys already know the drill. If there are any setups that I see that I'm ending up taking, I'm going to just post them onto Twitter. So feel free to follow me on X if you like. But if I happen to be, you know, pretty inactive today, just know that I'm doing a little live trading call with all of our students. And speaking about students, if you like the philosophy and if you like the way that I think about the market, and if you want to get results like what all of these other students have been able to achieve, like we've got a pretty decent funding rate. Almost half the students who end up working with us get funded. And that's a success rate that no other program can claim because simply put, they don't really care about your success. What we do. We're always making improvements to the overall program. And whatever the case, if you like the way that I do things, if you'd like to learn this system for yourself and just get funded and start, you know, having the ability to make a living trading full-time, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Book a call. If we're able to help, then we're going to, you know, make you an offer. But don't worry, we're not going to sell you anything that you don't want. And absolutely no pressure. If you don't want to work with us, feel free to just enjoy these daily videos. But with that said, I'll see you guys later. I'll see you guys tomorrow. And happy trading. Ciao ciao.