bitcoin: today's move will stop out a lot of people (don't be fooled)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Today is the day that we have been waiting for. Now, even though we had quite a bit of news on Monday and Tuesday, none of them were USD news. Today is going to be the first day where we have news at 8:30 as well as later on at 2 PM. More likely than not, today is going to be the real first high probability day of the week, and I'm going to break down exactly what you need to be looking for in terms of Bitcoin. And I'm also going to talk about another couple of forex pairs because if you guys don't already know, I started a funding challenge like on Monday basically, and Like it's only been 2 days and I'm already 1 trade away from passing it. And the couple of wins that I've got were all from oil. The biggest wins that I got throughout this entire process was oil because oil has just been so straightforward nowadays that it is a bit of a waste if you don't look to get into it. By the way, if you would like to live trade alongside with me over the next like month or so, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. It is for a very, very low price. Currently we only have half the spots remaining. And if you're interested, like you're going to make the money back in like a single winning trade. Just saying. But otherwise, let's get into the video for today. So far, Bitcoin, we are looking at a bearish daily bias, although I do think that this could be a little bit misleading because A, not only in terms of the higher timeframe, like just the overall trend, we have broken out of the range convincingly. Not only have we broken it out, but we came back to retest. And so far you have formed a new high. And so far this is also a newly formed bullish order block that price could return back into on the daily chart. And then price is going to pump from this point onwards. So there are only two ways that this could play out. One is that we are going to either retrace back into this order block. Or we are going to retrace back into this fair value gap. This is not something that I can predict, but if we were to be coming back into the order block, it would make sense that today's daily bias would be bearish because, well, there's quite a bit of ways to go before we hit the order block. But if it's just a fair value gap and we bounce from there, then I think the trade for today is going to be going against the daily bias instead of, you know, just purely respecting the daily bias. We want to take advantage of the bullish fair value gap and we want to take a trade towards the upside. Now, let's go down into the 1-hourly chart though to see if we can further break this down. And immediately something that stands out to me is the fact that you have a bunch of relatively equal highs and you have a bunch of relatively equal lows, right? So you have a few here and you have a few here. So this leads me to believe that most likely than not, all right, more likely than not, we're going to come back to these relatively equal lows all the way down at $72,900, which means that there is a very high likelihood that we are going to fill in the order block instead of just filling in the fair value gap and then pumping. Although a lot of this does also depend on what is going to happen later, because at the end of the day, just like what I always talk about, there are always two things when it comes to the market. The first one is that you've got to have your thesis, right? You have to have an opinion on what you think the market's likely to do. Then the second thing is that you don't just take a trade based on your opinion. You have to make sure that the market gives you the confirmation in terms of price action. And the way that this is going to be confirmed is that, for example, later on we have a couple of pieces of news. So you're going to want to look for— like, you're going to want to pay attention to the news timings in particular, specifically the hour before news to the hour after news. The first window is going to be between 7:30 to 9:30 AM, and the second window is going to basically start at 1 PM, and then it's going to end at like 3 PM. Am I going to be trading that later one? Absolutely not. Living in Asia like that is impossible for me to trade, but I will definitely try to take advantage of this 8:30 AM move. But anyways, just to get back to what I was talking about before, within the news window, ideally you're going to want to see a sweep below this level. And if you see the sweep of the level and you start seeing a 5-minute change in state delivery during that time, then obviously that is the trade that you should prioritize. Now, is it looking likely that that is going to happen? Absolutely not. And chances are that's because we have news later at 2 PM. Now, if you didn't know this before, 2 PM news acts in a very specific way where the majority of the day could just be setting up for that 2 PM news because 2 PM news is usually FOMC and this is one of the biggest news events throughout the entire month. So because everyone is expecting volatility to only come at around 2 PM, the rest of the day could just be like, the rest of the day could just act as what it is right now, which is building up liquidity on the buy side liquidity, building up liquidity on the sell side. And then during like prior to 2 PM, you're probably going to see a sweep of either one of these levels. And then once 2 PM hits, you're going to go the opposite way. This is a very normal kind of scenario that plays out during Wednesday news events, especially if you have 2 PM news. So none of this is a surprise so far. There is also a very high likelihood that if you don't get this scenario right here, then chances are you're going to sweep the highs, and then potentially the setup is going to be towards the bearish direction. Now, I wish I could be a little bit more straightforward when it comes to calling this trade. Unfortunately, today there is a valid argument for both the bearish direction and the bullish direction. And even amongst the bearish direction, Like, actually, the bearish one is very straightforward. You're just going to look for a sweep at the highs. Either that, or you're going to look for a 1-hourly candle close underneath 73,600. Once you get that, then that will form a— like, this will basically validate this as a new bearish order block, and you're just going to trade this lower. In terms of the bullish direction, it's a little bit more sketchy because not only is the daily bias primarily pointing towards the downside, which means that we technically shouldn't even be looking for longs today, but B, even if, like, if we go for a long, we do at the very minimum need these relatively equal lows to get swept. Because otherwise, there's a very high likelihood that we're just going to get stopped out before the true move happens. So it's a bit of a dilemma, and it is a bit more of an unclear day in the sense that there is no just one straight-up scenario, and there are going to be days like this. And here's the thing that I'm not trying to do: I'm not trying to predict what the market's going to do. I'm trying to come up with just a couple, maybe 3 scenarios at most, that are most likely to happen. I'm going to give you guys the conditions and exactly what to look for for those conditions to be fulfilled, and then based on whichever scenario happens, that's the trade that we take. So in this case, trading ultimately becomes a game of reading and reacting rather than prediction. And again, one thing I'm not trying to do is to predict the markets. There are some days where the scenario is just really straightforward, like prices going up. Like, case in point, for the last couple of weeks, most of my videos have just been, hey, Bitcoin is going to go up, just buy. Uh, it's as simple as that. But today is a little bit different, and it's just a part of trading. So as such, the best move for today honestly is for you to just follow me on Twitter, because if I do take a trade and like whatever is happening in the markets, I will be posting it all to Twitter, especially all of my live trades. And especially also if you happen to be in VIP, that's where you're going to get the most updates. But otherwise, again, just to break down the 3 scenarios that are likely to happen. One is the textbook kind of like trade that we should be taking following the daily bias, which is in this case, we're going to be looking for at least a 1-hourly candle close underneath 73800. And we're going to be looking for price to break lower and then going down. And this is going to be taking advantage of the 7:30 AM news window to 9:30 AM. News window. And once the hourly candle close happens, we're just going to be looking for 5-minute CIC towards the downside. And the daily target today is going to be 73300 as well as 72850. So those are the couple of things. So that is the scenario number 1, which is the textbook setup. Scenario number 2 is that we somehow, by some God's miracle, we have swept the lows once we get into that initial news window. And if we do, and if you see a 5-minute CIC towards the upside, then that will be the setup. Although I do think this second scenario is less likely to happen. Scenario number 3 is that we do eventually sweep either one of these lows, but it is going to be taken advantage of that second news window, which is during the New York afternoon. So starting 1 PM to around 3 PM, that is going to be the news window. If something like this happens, that is going to be the one that you go for. Now, I am not going to be able— again, I'm not going to be able to give you an update on that second scenario purely because, like, I am in Asia and that will be like, what, 3, 4 AM for me. So not ideal, but I will definitely try my best to get a profitable trade out to you guys during the New York morning news event. One thing's for sure, like, Forex is the place to be at the moment, especially like if you just take a look at crude oil. You are so far bullish. You just came back to fill in a bullish fair value gap on the daily chart, which again adds further confluence to this trade. Going down into the 1-hourly chart, you can see that the liquidity has been taken, and that is exactly the trade that I took advantage of earlier today, which is after the sweep. London basically swept the Asia lows, and once that happened, got an immediate CISD, right? London swept the Asia lows, you immediately get a CSD at this line right here. Once the CSD happens, you get a new order block, and then boom, right? It's just super straightforward target. In this case, it was 2.5R, and this is all good stuff. Now, I might have taken profit a little bit too early. I have a feeling like later on it's going to hit like $95, and then I'm going to regret, you know, closing out the trade early because I think that trade could have passed my funding challenge right then and there, and I could, you know, brag about the fact that I passed the funding challenge in like 2 days. But otherwise, oil, like, you're just going to look for a continuation later on during the New York session. Basically, on the hourly chart, you've already formed a fair value gap. So once you return into the fair value gap, you're just going to want to look to, you know, continue the trade. This is so far have been a very straightforward type of day as far as, you know, oil goes. But now let's get into Ethereum real quick because, well, we're still a crypto channel. I just got a little bit distracted by oil just now. Ethereum, you are looking at a very steady bias as well. The fair value gap is much bigger compared to the one on Bitcoin. And in terms of Ethereum, you have so many relatively equal lows that it would not make sense at all to go for a long until all of these lows are swept out. If you go into a long prior to that, you are very likely going to be looking at, for example, let's say you've only swept out this low and, you know, price starts giving a bullish CIC. If you try to get in there, what's likely going to happen is price is going to head down again before ultimately pumping. So you want to make sure all of these relatively low lows are swept out before you get into a long. We could make the similar argument for Bitcoin, but Bitcoin's looking just a tiny bit stronger compared to Ethereum. And so That's why we will be a little bit more lenient for Bitcoin. But one thing to keep in mind for sure with Ethereum is that if you do sweep those lows and you come back into this hourly PD array right here, this is going to be setting the stage for a potential A-class setup. And I would definitely prioritize Ethereum when you get to that point. In fact, Ethereum— sorry, Bitcoin is looking a little bit similar, except your order flow, except your order block is kind of spread out a little bit more. But with Ethereum, like, I hope you guys can start to see that after the manipulation, you're going to fill the key level that the smart money wants to fill. And you're going to pump from that point onwards. So definitely pay attention to that. Now, as far as Solana goes, you have a bearish daily bias. This is just not super worthwhile taking like relative equal lows plus like given the choice where Solana and Bitcoin looks exactly the same, you would rather take Bitcoin rather than Solana. So that is my take on things. But otherwise, guys, just a reminder that in less than 2 weeks at this point, we're going to be hosting a little live trading event. It's completely free to attend. Click the second link in the description box below if you would like to sign up. Otherwise, if you're on the fence about VIP, like it's going to pay itself off in like a single trade. Plus you get the benefit of, you know, trading alongside with me and seeing my every thought process from start to finish over the next 30 days or so. Money aside, this is also just a really valuable experience. And again, we're already halfway full. It's only been a week since we opened up, you know, VIP. Like to get in, now's the time. Otherwise, I'll see you guys later on Twitter for some live trading. Ciao ciao.