The Art Of Crypto warns Bitcoin is in a multi-timeframe downtrend and cautions against buying dips without confirmation. Watch for a bearish order block near $87,000 as a key trigger, and trade on Tuesday or Wednesday instead of Monday or Saturday for better odds.
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What's up? Welcome back to another video. Just to let you know, there is five days remaining until the big day. In five days, I'm going to be hosting a free masterclass breaking down the exact 80% win rate system that you've seen on this channel over the last 300 days. If you haven't signed up yet, make sure you sign up so that you know where you can attend the event. But anyways, in today's video, I'm going to get into the bigger picture kind of outlook on Bitcoin just to understand what's going on in the macro. Is it time to buy the dip? Besides that, I'm also going to get into the intraday setup for bitcoin. But yeah, anyways, let's get into it. Starting things off on the weekly chart. So far we have a weekly bearish bias, which means that the dump is not yet over. One of the biggest things that I will like to kind of just warn you before we get into anything else is that if you have been buying the dip, chances are you are losing money. Or at the very least, if you have been buying the dip over the last three to four weeks, maybe four to six weeks, you're losing money. And the reason why that is the case is because you are buying into something that is fundamentally still inside a downtrend. If you can just see here, ever since the start of October, basically like two months ago, bitcoin has been in a downtrend. Right? The weekly chart is not going to give you a very clear picture, but the moment you come down to the daily chart, you will understand what I mean, right? This is overall just inside a downtrend. Even on the one hour chart, you are inside a downtrend. So if you've ever heard of the saying that the trend is your friend and you want to, you know, buy when the market's going up and sell when the market's going down, guess what? The correct thing to do right now is to be selling, not buying. A much better approach compared to buying the dip is to at least wait for confirmation that hey, you know, on the daily chart you're some sort of breaker structure, some sort of changes to delivery. At that point it is never too late to jump back into the ship. But what happens right now is that in your eagerness to kind of catch the bottom or to be able to predict the bottom, or maybe you hear some bull poster youtuber say oh yeah, 100k is going to be the support or 105k, they're convinced that that is going to be the bottom. Guess what? Every single person that bought the dip throughout this entire dump so far has lost a significant amount of money. Just the other day I got messages of people losing $180,000, $75,000, $175,000. It's. It breaks my heart to see it, but ultimately what you need to understand is that there are two kind of possible scenarios that you could have inside the market. One is that you eventually end up being right, that, hey, you know guys, I caught the bottom. The other side of that equation is like, hey guys, I made a shitload of money throughout this entire dip or throughout this entire pump. And so far, for those of you who have been following me, well, you guys are making money. I would like to think that we're one of the most profitable communities out there or other profitable YouTube channels because I haven't been able to call literally every single major dump and I've given you guys entries on how to take advantage of shorts so that you can make money. But not to go sidetrack, not to, you know, go off track here. Just understand that do not buy the dip as something as it may be. When you hear other people talk about how, oh, $82,000 is going to be the bottom, oh, 88 is going to be the bottom, whatever. Nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. I have never claimed to know where the bottom is going to be. Me personally, I haven buying into the dip yet. Just to give you an example, if anything, I can actually show you a tweet of like how my portfolio is looking like at the moment. And let's just say that I am heavily in stablecoins at the moment. So just understand that. And I am heavily in stablecoins at the moment. And that hasn't changed and is not likely to change until I get some sort of confirmation from the market that in fact it is going up and it is not going down anymore. Because I understand catching falling knives is losing game and there is no way to win. Just to give you an example, let's say you try to catch a falling knife, right? You buy in at 100k. Boom. Next day you wake up like it feels good for like a solid 30 minutes and the next day you wake up, it's 90k, now you're down. So do you buy in more? Well, okay, time to throw in the rest of your money and then boom, it goes to 80k, bam. Now you're out of money. Maybe you take a loss. Like what do you do? And in this entire process, going from 100 to 80, you're losing sleep, you're panicking, you're having. You're damn near close to a heart attack. It's just not a particularly smart way to do it. Ultimately. One of the very famous quotes, and something that I repeat quite often is that top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming cotton pickers. Because this is a losing strategy, right? If you wait for the market to give you some sort of trend confirmation, that is going to be a much better way to approach it. And if you have been dealing with, let's say you have suddenly lost a lot of money or maybe you've liquidated your account. I've also made a video recently just teaching you how you can bounce back from this instead of letting it compound into worse or most importantly just, yeah, how to recover your account. But anyways, it's time to now get into the, you know, lower time frame stuff and let's take a look at the daily chart. Now first and foremost I will have to take a look at news because ideally we want to be trading on news days and ideally we want to be avoiding non newsdays. So as you can see here throughout this week we have news on Tuesday, we have Wednesday and then you have a couple of bank holidays on Thursday and Friday. So ideally the best days for this week is going to be Tuesday and Wednesday and definitely not today. And you can kind of see that in the price action that we've been getting so far on the London session as well as the Asia session. For the most part nothing has been happening. But just to go on to the daily bias, just understand that so far we have now tapped into this daily F, which means you are going to be looking for downside from this point onwards. Now from here let's go into the lower time frame to see if we have some sort of area of interest that we can look for. And immediately right off the get go, this is going to be a bearish resistance that price could potentially tap into later, especially if then that within the next 20 minutes, if you are able to close beneath this level, which is $87,000, this is going to become a new one hourly order block. So I don't know where I left off, but the SD card ended up running out of memory. I forgot to check it before filming. But otherwise let's get back into what we were talking about before. Now for those of you who are in VIP and you know, for example, yesterday closed bullish, right? So technically today you should be going Bullish. But the way that I'm just thinking about it is that, well, so far you are in very bearish order flow at the moment. And also this bullish close was on Sunday, which can be a little bit misleading, which is like usually I don't like to trade Mondays. It's just a little bit tougher to, you know, tell what is the true direction. Fun fact, actually the system that I use heavily struggles on Mondays. Like right now I'm sitting at 129 wins out of the last 165 trades called. And I think the majority of the losses, the majority of the 36 losses that we have usually comes on Monday as well as non newsdays. So if it's possible, avoid Monday also you have seen it already, it's looking pretty choppy. But so yeah, even though the daily bias is supposed to be bullish, like just taking into account the overall kind of like conditions, I am going to make a call and say that it's going to be towards the bearish direction. However, once I go down into the one hour chart, I'm now seeing another reason why today we may be, you know, going long. Because over here you have relatively equal highs, which means that this could be a magnet for liquidity to target. This however, does not mean that we are just going to target there. All right, let's get into the lower time frame just to see if we can break this down a little bit more. First of all, we have just swept out this part like this liquidity over here. So in the event that right now you start showing like 5 minute changes state of delivery, specifically breaking above this level right here on the five minute chart, this could create some room for Price to essentially flip this into a potential bullish order block and for Price to go higher. Now, the specific timing that you are going to want to look for, this is just between 7am to 10am New York today there is no news. So whatever happens, right, let's say between 7am to 10am this is something that happens then. Yeah, clearly we're going to target this area. But between 7:10am if you start getting rejected from this one hourly bearish order block, then that is going to be the bearish call. Unfortunately, today is. Well, I've already kind of explained why Monday's a little bit lower probability and why it's harder for me usually to make a accurate proper call on Monday. It's not because the system sucks or that I suck. It's mainly market conditions. There's no news, there's no Volatility. And in this case, we're just starting the week to this for the same reason why we do not trade the Asia session, because the Asia session tends to be a accumulation session while London is manipulation and New York is distribution. Monday tends to be the opening range, right? It's also kind of the accumulation range for the week. So Monday sets the tone. Tuesday, Wednesday, you may get some sort of manipulation, just like what we called last week with the high of the week. I literally made a video predicting that the high of the week was going to come here and then in fact, it came here on Tuesday. The reason why that is the case is because Tuesday tends to be manipulation. Wednesday you may get distribution, and then Thursday is when things start, start calming down, some sort of reversal, but things chill. Now, of course, that is just a rule of thumb. Price is not going to play out this way every single time. But just understand that that is the typical kind of profile for Mondays. And so even if you end up not trading today, that would actually be a wise choice because just like how, you know, cryptos, you know, people say crypto is a 247 market, or just because it is a 24.7market, doesn't mean that you're going to get opportunities 247 most of the time. Saturdays are absolutely horrendous. If you try trading on Saturday, you are going to struggle mightily. If you try trading Saturdays, you are going to struggle might just because there is no volatility, there's no volume. And so even if you do everything right, even if you are the best technical analyst in the world, it's not going to help you if the market conditions are just terrible. When people say not every day is a trading day, not every week is a trading week, they truly mean it. And in terms of this week, we want to definitely prioritize most of our ammunition on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then potentially Thursday and Friday are going to be pretty chill as well. So now that you understand the call on bitcoin, essentially it's just going to be depending on the reaction from this level right here. Of course, if price gets rejected from 87, you're gonna start shorting. I will of course, post this, like, post whatever live trade that I take on X if I do take a live trade. Obviously, if you start breaking above this level during the kill zone, then the direction is going to be towards the long side. But hopefully you understand why, you know, today is a little bit harder to make a accurate or just a straightforward read on bitcoin. Now, going into Ethereum. Let's just take a look at where we stand in terms of the weekly chart. You're looking bearish, of course, like, why would I expect it to be different from Bitcoin? On Ethereum you do not have any sort of gap and yesterday's daily bias is closed. Bullish. In terms of the one hourly chart, I think you are on route to making a cisd. Now, this changes a lot. Like in the event that you get the cisd, well, clearly you're just going to trade this towards the downside because there is no imbalance, there's no relatively highs per se to fill in. And just understand. By the way, another scenario that could happen is that today and tomorrow we do pump because like the weekly power of three is pointing towards the downside, which means just like how last week I was able to predict the high of the week. It's just very simple. By the way, it's this concept is known as the power of three. Essentially you, if you are expecting a bearish daily bias or bearish weekly bias, you want to look for price to go above the open and that is where you look to sell so that you can capture the high of the candle and then the true expansion towards the downside. That so far is what I'm going to be looking at. Like we're not going to know this until at the very least tomorrow. So that is going to be the situation on Ethereum. Solana is the same. You are having a CISD already. So, yeah, everything is looking pretty bearish so far in terms of the daily bias. Of course everything's going to look bullish, but when you go into the lower time frame, you will start realizing that, yeah, you're getting kind of like breaks of structure and there's really only two ways that this is going to go. One is going to be an accumulation you manipulate below the Asia lows and then you distribute to the upside. We've painted that out on Bitcoin in terms of like taking out the relatively equal highs. And in the second scenario is that you break down, right? Accumulation break out, retrace continuation, right? That's the only two kind of ways that this is going to play out. And unfortunately I don't really know. And unfortunately I can't really tell right now because Monday and also potentially because I'm filming this video before even 5am, within the next couple of hours, I'm sure something is going to happen and we're going to have more information to act on this. But for now, thanks for watching this. Video and I'll see you tonight on X Cha Cha.
