Bitcoin: Watch Out For This Manipulation

What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. Unfortunately, yesterday, the call where I was talking about the change state delivery here, price ultimately retraces and goes higher ended up being invalidated. It is what it is, though. This is not one of those situations where I need to panic because like, everything in the system was lining up. Unfortunately, price just did not give us what we wanted to see and is exactly what I talk about regularly with, for example, let's say poker. Even if you have the best hand, right? Let's say you have pocket aces. It statistically gives you the best odds of winning, but it doesn't guarantee that you'll win. My job ultimately as a trader is to just identify the days where the probability is in my favor and then act accordingly. Right. The trade setup was there, I take it, and if it loses, it's fine. Like as long as I execute the system with discipline every time. And yeah, just let the market do its thing. Unfortunately, market did its thing and invalidated our idea. Unfortunately, that puts us with an L. So we're now 66 out of 80 of all public YouTube analyses since February. But today I'm going to try to do better than yesterday. I mean, to be fair, yesterday was a pretty good day. Just like ultimately, price did end up going higher. Did not sweep out the current daily high, though. Or rather for today, it's going to be the previous daily high. But ultimately prices ended up going a little bit lower before ultimately giving us that move. Again, it is what it is. The analysis was okay. I mean, like, statistically speaking, we tend to be right about 80% of the time. Even if it's going to be a bad week, I would say 70% or at least 50%. Now, statistically speaking, we're still, like, with this system that we've been using, we're still around an 80% accuracy rate. So, you know, I'm not panicking. Sure. We've had a rough, you know, one and a half weeks. It goes back to understanding that systems do not always function, or rather they do not always thrive in every single market condition. There are some systems. For example, if your system is a range trading system, it is much more of a. It's going to thrive much more when the market is actually choppy. Right. It's probably not going to do so well in a trending condition. And, and for mine, my system, it definitely thrives in a trending condition, although we have still historically been able to find good trades in choppy conditions. Now, historically speaking, though, this is still nothing to panic because Our system tends to be right about 80% of the time, historically speaking. In fact, right now 66 out of 80 still puts us at about 82.5% accuracy rate. So it's just going to stick to the system. If the system gives us a good signal that we're just going to keep taking it and just let the markets doing do its thing right. Ultimately you're not going to win every trade. But as long as you overall you have edge, that's all that matters. Speaking of which, it's another, you know how it is. It's another rainy day today, Vietnam. So definitely lighting up the cigar. Got a couple of specialty matches. One has got Chiyo no Koto and one's Nakanoshiro. Guys, I have to say if you are a big fan of matcha as I am, I love matcha like ceremonial grade. I love to drink not only for the taste but also for the cognitive and health benefits. There's so much like antioxidants in matcha especially on high grade ones that you really feel a really nice buzz when you take matcha. Now don't get me wrong, I still love my coffee. But if you're a big matcha fan, coming back to before, Vietnam has had some of the best matchas that I've seen. Like somehow even though I spent a month in Kyoto as a matcha fan, like I'm still finding a bigger selection of Uji and yinomacha produced in Kyoto here in Vietnam compared to Kyoto itself, which is pretty wild. But anyways, it's time to get into the video. Kicking things off on the weekly chart again. We are still bullish and so far everything is still playing out bullish. And also the fact that we have filled in this F gap and now we are bouncing is a amazing sign. So daily chart right now there is only one potential retracement level that we need to consider which is this FE gap right here that formed after Monday and Tuesday's candle. So if Price were to retrace down into 108400 or even to 107200, there is still a very big likelihood that we may get some kind mid retracement. And then Price just continues shooting from this point onwards. Not saying that it will get there because once we go into the lower time frames can all make sense. Taking a look at the lower time frames yesterday the Price actually swept out this swing low right here. Right after sweeping out the swing low, you get a change in state of delivery over here, which means now order flow is bullish. And then secondly you also, this is technically a broken base. Every time you sweep a swing low and they immediately form a new high. This is known as broken base. It's one of the reversal patterns and the way you trade the broken base. So look for a PD array for price to retrace into if a price continues towards the upside. So this technically is a strong low, which means that there's a lower likelihood that it gets swept to fill in the F gap that I drew on the daily chart. So for today's setup I'm going to be looking at this as the most likely setup and that is going to be for a retrace down to109,200 before price shows a willingness to go to the upside. And then boom. Today you also have news. So if you take a look at Forex factory 8:30am you have CPI. So today is going to have some volatility, especially heading towards cpi. Now this is going to be scenario number one. I'm going to break that down. And also yesterday's candle, technically closed bullish. Like it's a very big doe candle so you want to take it with a grain of salt. But otherwise at the moment we still have that Monday's high that has yet to be taken and price is already showing a broken base after filling in imbalances. Right this was a fab gap and yeah actually that's the only fab gap that price kind of filled in. But overall today the setup is simple. We're going to be looking for longs until friggin otherwise. I'm also going to give you kind of like a contingency plan and like kind of like the probabilities of how likely they are to play out. So first of all taking a look at the London, it's already kind of breaking out. So what I'm looking at specifically, in fact I've already taken a position here with that change in state of delivery, targeting the Asia high as a TP1 and potentially that level right there. So that is your change in state of delivery after sweeping out the Asia lows. This I'm going to tell you straight up right now, this is not going to be the highest probability trade because you still have this level right here that has yet to be filled. But if this got stopped out then I'm just gonna look for this trade right here. This is not telling you guys to just jump into a trade right here right now. Because ideally I'm filling this video right now at 4:30am and chances are by the time this video is posted, it's gonna be somewhere between 5:30 to maybe 6:00am so your setup is going to be present within the New York morning and I'm gonna give you kind of like the setup for the New York morning in just a bit. So what I'm looking at right now is an Asia accumulation. I'm expecting London today, maybe the hours like an hour after London to be manipulation to, you know, sweep out to trick everyone into thinking that the market's going lower. But in fact you're just filling in this verb gap before price shoots up during news. That's going to be my call for today, at least based on what I'm seeing how at least that's what I'm looking for. Right? Price is not necessarily playing out in that way yet. If you get a break above here, then price is definitely playing out in that way in the sense that you're going to get that change step in delivery here by the way means the Exact price is 109,680. If you get break above here, that's going to be a 5 minutes change of delivery. The one hourly chart is already pointing towards the upside. The daily chart is already pointing towards the upside. So this aligns everything within my system. Right now I'm entering a little bit early but it is a risk that I'm willing to take. Although depending on how price plays out, how many need to close this out because we're getting relatively equal lows here and flat candles anyways A and D, that's going to be the at least the ideal scenario that I'm going to be looking for today. And the reason for that is again on the higher time frames your trend is pointing towards the upside. You've swept underneath the Asia lows during the London which is usually a manipulation session and New York tends to go the other way. Now ideally again I would like to see all of these lows get swept, fill this in and then show a 5 minute changes data delivery. Basically a change in order flow. And order flow by the way just means that you are getting bullish favor gaps and bullish pd. Like bullish PD arrays in general, right? Bullish favor gaps, bullish order blocks being respected. So this right here is a bullish order block. If this gets respected and price forms a new high, that is a change in set of delivery in the sense that price is now shifting. Bullish. Now bearish would be an example like this, right? That's a bearish order block. Price retraces into it forms a new Low and then this becomes your new order block. Like Price just keeps respecting these quote unquote resistance areas. It keeps going down. That's bearish order flow. And essentially it's going to be bearish order flow if you do end up coming to this area. But what you want to look for specifically before you go for a long is for a change in order flow to bullish. And if that happens, then you can just continue going long and take all the way until 1106 6, sorry, 655. And yeah, that's going to be the setup for to. No, actually you can take it higher because that may be Monday's high, but there's also a liquidity level that has not yet been tapped at 110700. Now perhaps today can also be a pretty volatile day considering that we have CPI. So you can hit $112,000 which if I'm not mistaken is the current all time high. And yes, so essentially we're very close to all time highs at the moment. Price is just kind of like near coiling up before the explosive move. But when the explosive move does happen, it's going to happen pretty quick. I just keep in mind that that will happen. Now lastly, we're going to need to talk about a contingency plan because you know this setup right here could get invalidated just like yesterday where even though the condition was clear in the sense that we wanted to see a change in state of delivery above this candle here, but after you got that candle, boom, Price just reverses the other way. So right now the invalidation plan would be that if this favority gap gets invalidated, you may potentially look for a price to sweep out this low. Instead at 108300 to fill in that daily 5 gap before tomorrow, we will get the long setup. Which also means that if you, if you start seeing short setups forming today, at least for me, because my system requires all three high frames to be aligned in the sense that daily chart, if I'm going to take a short on five minute, I want the daily chart to point down, the one hourly chart to point down and the five minute chart to point down. And if today starts pointing down, well guess what, the daily chart is pointing up, the hourly chart is also pointing up. So for me to take a short on a five minute chart means that I'm going against my system. So personally I'm not going to take it. But instead of trying to trade the short, I'm just going to look for a sweep or rather A fill of this web gap for tomorrow to start showing willingness to go up. And that will be the setup for tomorrow. It's going to be much higher probability, but today it's going to be pretty simple, straightforward. I'm just expecting price to go up to 110700. Now, again, I can predict that something's going to happen on 8.30am, but I cannot predict how volatile it's going to be. For example, yesterday I read a comment that said, dude, nothing happened. Unfortunately. Yeah, nothing happened. And that's how it is, right? Because the previous day we had a very volatile candle. That's something you need to understand about the markets is that it always moves from phases, high volatility to low volatility. That's why you have expansions, retracements, expansion retracements. These retracement periods last a while and nothing really happens. And that's the danger of trading right after a big volatile day. Now, sure, we can trade the continuation, but after big volatile days there is a 50, 50% chance that you do end up getting a day where nothing really much happens. And that's normal. So just anticipate that. It's kind of how I was able to predict that nothing was going to happen last Friday as well, because Thursday you had a really big candle. And then take a look at what happens during the New York morning. Price basically just chopped around within this zone here, Asia, London. Sure, something happened, but we're not necessarily trying to trade that, especially with these videos that I'm making. I'm showing you guys what to do during the New York AM session. And also keep in mind that these videos are mainly intraday. That's why I'm coming to you guys every single day with these videos. And that's why you should definitely subscribe if you would like to see more of these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto. Now, currently I'm still doing bitcoin, but we have plans to start doing altcoins as well. And lastly guys, you know, the last couple of days I did mention that we had one spot left open for bootcamp, but in reality we actually sold. We actually got sold out a month in advance. In fact, I was completely mistaken because spots already filled up like last week and I was still like telling you guys, oh, there's one spot left remaining. But in reality we are sold out one month in advance. We don't even know when like the next intake is starting on the 23rd of June and we were sold out like last week. So right now if you would like to join Bootcamp where you work with me personally one on one like you said. Yeah, me and you. I work with you personally one on one to get you from where you are now to full time trading within the next 60 days or within a 60 day period. Instead of signing up for a call, maybe sign up to the newsletter because we will announce when the next intake is open. Inside newsletter so far the results have been stunning. Just the other day Dustin got funded for 100k and right now we have three people quite literally on the verge of getting funded. So you guys are going to see a lot of news come out the rest of this month. But anyways, yeah guys, enjoy the rest of your day. I'm going to enjoy this nice rainy day. Hopefully be able to catch a nice trade on. Well not just bitcoin actually the other altcoins are showing pretty nice movement as well. But yeah, enjoy my matcha. I'm going to enjoy my cigar and I'll catch you guys in the next one. Oh and look forward to the vlog. It's being edited right now. Cheers.