Bitcoin: We Were Wrong About The Bottom Being In... More Dumps Incoming...

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Something serious just happened on Bitcoin. This is not good news. And I'm going to break down why. In this video, I'm going to also give you the setup that allows you to take advantage of this so that you know, instead of losing money, you actually jump into a short and actually make money. Now before we get into talking about today though, I think it's important to reflect back on yesterday as well. Because yesterday trade was a little bit, I don't want to say it was a fail, but like there just wasn't any trade. So just to explain what I mean, this is the fair value gap that we marked out that we were anticipating price to retrace back into and then give some kind of a bounce. And we were anticipating this to happen anytime between 7, 8, sorry, 7:30 to the hour after news, which is 9:30. And in fact we did retrace back into this fair bit gap at 9am now once we retrace into it though, we did not really give much of a bounce because like, one of the key things that I wanted you guys to look out for is, is a change in state of delivery. And at the time when we first got into this area right here, we didn't get the change in state of delivery. Basically like the trade just happened basically between the hours of 7am to 10am which is the New York kill zone. Nothing happened. And so yesterday was straight up a no trade. And so that puts our record still at 96 out of the last 122 trades that we've called here on this channel. And by the way, make sure you follow me on Twitter if you want like more up to date on like real time kind of of like updates to these trades. There's often times like I'm recording these videos at like 5:00am New York, and the news and the move might not happen all the way until like 9am New York. And I'm not able to make a new YouTube video. So I just updated on Twitter and yesterday I did and basically it was just a no trade. And from the Twitter comments yesterday, I actually saw a few people that got stuck into a position and they were asking me like, hey, you know, what's going on? And I'll tell you what's going on. The. There's a reason why I always mention the timeframe between 7am and 10am if there, if the trade doesn't show up in between the timeframes that I'm talking about. In yesterday's case, My timeframe specifically was 7:30am to 9:30am if the trade doesn't show up during that moment, like as in the liquidity only got, as in the fact that the Fairb gap only got filled starting at 950 now. And so when the move actually happens, like, you'll notice like this is technically CISD on the five minute chart, but it's already like 10:45 and that's outside of the kill zone. And that's already late morning during the New York. And one thing you need to understand about intraday trading is that ideally you want to be catching your moves early during the New York session rather than close to lunchtime. Because once lunchtime actually happens, what you tend to end up getting instead is just really choppy price action. Basically, you know, nothing's happening or you just get straight up, kind of like a reversal. And that's super common for, you know, just intraday trading. Again, ideally, catch your moves early on in the New York session and you're going to be doing fine. So for the months that got caught up in a trade yesterday, just understand that yesterday was not one of those days where like a setup was even present. And so that's why I'm calling it a no trade. And if you follow me on Twitter, you would have also seen the fact that I was like, hey, you know, some, I think the move will just end up happening during tomorrow's Asia session instead. And this is exactly what we got during the Asia session. But we finally got it up and now we have more price action to work with. Which leads me on to the second point. And this is the exact thing that we were talking about yesterday, which is the market maker sell model. I told you guys yesterday that this very like, it's not completely out of expectation for us to get a market maker sell model. The way I was able to identify that is that a, this is some kind of a higher time frame order block right here and in. On route to getting to this order block, we did one and two impulses towards the upside. And the way you confirm and the way you validate a market maker sell model. If you take a look here, ideally you want to see this line getting broken through. And that's exactly what I gave you yesterday. That's exactly what I taught you yesterday. If we get a close beneath $110,700, we're going to get a validation of a potential market maker sell model. And so it goes without saying that today's setup is going to be pretty clear. I'm going to ideally look for a retracement back into this level right here. And also right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, you now have a fair bit of gap forming in between the levels of 110,250 to 110,850. So ideally you're going to want to wait for price to get into this level and then you're going to look for a short all the way down back below the original consolidation, which in this case is over here. And you can see like today is absolutely textbook because you see this one right here. That's also what we got. Bang, bang, bang. So this is clean market maker Subodle. Like the setup's gonna be super clear. This is not a setup that you want to fade because this does not happen very often. But when it does happen, this is a very powerful setup. Now let's take a look at the daily chart though, just to understand the risk profile that we're dealing with today. Yesterday's candle actually closed Bullish, which means technically today we're supposed to be looking for longs. But I'm going to let the market maker Sumo actually take precedence here because like again, this is just way too textbook for me to completely just write it off and just not mention it to you guys. And so, yeah, now that we understand what's going on on the higher time frame, also one more thing to talk about is that this is technically a change in state of delivery. So now that the one hourly order flow is now bearish, we're going to look towards like bearish targets. Just to explain what I mean by that. There is always some kind of objective behind every move in the markets. Every, every pump is trying to either fill in some kind of higher time frame bearish PD or it's trying to take out some sort of buy side liquidity, vice versa. Every dump is always trying to take out some site, some sort of sell side liquidity, or just filling in some kind of hard high frame bullish pdoa. And in this case it's pretty clear that this is the liquidity that we're aiming for. So right now, based on how like current price is going, like, it's pretty clear that it's going towards this liquidity level right here and potentially even lower. And just to zoom out onto the daily chart to see if there are any potential lower liquidity points, we have this level right here and we have this level right here followed by a potential failure gap over there. Now don't get me wrong though, you are still overall bearish, like to the ones that are watching this video and you guys are like swing traders or if you're longer time frame traders. Just understand that we are still bullish, right? That nothing has changed in the sense that this is still your bullish order block right now. Price could spend this week, next week, the third week, fourth week, heck, Price could spend as long as it wants when it is order block right here. Until this gets broken through on the weekly chart, like there is no cause for concern. Price is still looking very bullish and this is just going to be an accumulation zone. The struggle that we run into when it comes to these higher, high frame accumulation zones is that like, you know, we're humans, we're designed to for instant gratification, right? When we think of a move, we want the move to happen immediately. I would argue that this is probably one of the reasons, one of the top reasons why people struggle with trading so much. It's like you know what to do or like you know what you want to see from the market. But then it's this. It's a struggle between like knowing what is going to happen versus like waiting for it to actually happen. That, you know, a lot of problems arise and the nature of a higher time frame move is that, well, they're going to take time. Given the fact that we're looking at this chart right now from the weekly perspective means that chances are it's going to take a few weeks. This is just how it goes. Similarly, if you are looking at a daily kind of accumulation zone, you may expect it to take a few days up to a few weeks on the weekly chart. Yeah, it's only normal that it takes a few weeks. So like just don't panic. Right now price is still looking great in terms of overall order flow, you're still very bullish. In terms of overall amount of structure, you're still very bullish. So no panic here. And until like basically a hundred thousand dollars is breached, all good. And if you're wondering like, oh, what if I buy into here and like I do like that was the top of the bull market and I lose money, guess what? There's always going to be that kind of risk no matter what you do. Like whether you take a trade or not, whether, you know, all the cards seem to be stacked in your favor, it's never going to feel perfect. Like never. And I say this as someone who's been doing this for like six years. I've been through like three bull and bear markets at this Point I came in the top of the bear market and then I went, so I went through one bear market, two bear markets, and this is my second, like officially my second bull run that I've actually sat on my way through. And, and like, the truth is the, there's always going to be like, you're never going to feel certain. Like you just have to look at levels that have statistically a higher probability of, you know, giving you more return than the chance of you losing money and you just pull the trigger. The, the truth of the matter is that back when Bitcoin was like at $17,000, it didn't feel great to buy into it. At least it didn't feel great for at least a few months. And then it started feeling pretty good. And over time you feel even more amazing. Thing is with long term predictions it's hard to tell like the fact. And also another thing is that if you're feeling uncertain about, you know, buying into crypto at this point, guess what, that's perfectly normal. Because like for the past two years, basically like from 2023 all the way until now, you could have just bought every major dip and you would be printing money. Welcome to a bull market. Fact is, right now it's pretty late, right? Objectively Speaking, compared to 2023, it is pretty late. But who knows? This bull market could continue on for much longer. And would you rather, you know, be afraid and you know, to take the risk thinking that, oh, you know, the bull market's over when all of the market structure and all of the order flow is still intact, or are you going to be all right? You know, I'm just gonna take a risk. The bull market could go on like another three, four months, maybe six months. Price is gonna go exponentially high from here. And I would rather take a calculated risk, you know, small risk here for a potentially big reward. Would you rather take that or would you rather be scared? I leave that up to you. But anyways, now that the, you know, kind of like higher time frame stuff is over, let's hop into the lower time frames just to, you know, see how we're going to play this. So again, we already have a further gap over here. It's very unlikely that we're going to retrace all the way back up here to this bearish oil block right here. So I'm just going to hop into the five minute chart to see if there are any other levels that we may have missed. So London so far has been leading the move in the sense that London has been pretty volatile and I guess another, you know, potential resistance level that you can look at is starting at 109,900. Essentially the playbook today is super simple guys like either you retrace into here, you retrace into here, as long as you get some kind of fragment of change in state of delivery in a sense that like for example here, this is a bullish order block price goes up, this becomes a new bullish order block. Price goes up until the point where bullish order blocks gets disrespected. In this case, this bullish order block here gets disrespected. Price is now in bearish order flow. Once you're in bearish waterflow, you anticipate price to respect bearish, you know, order blocks and bearish PDOAs. And in this case you are very much in bearish order flow. If you were to come all the way up here, it's chances are that within this move here you're going to be in bullish order flow. And so ideally you want to wait for price to start disrespecting the bullish order blocks, start respecting the bearish order blocks and bearish for every gaps. Once that happens, you put your entry, put your entry there, you put your stop there and you target 2R and it's going to be a easy time trading. Besides that, we're also going to take a look at news because today we have news at 8:30am so ideally you want to look for that retracement here to to happen somewhere between the hours of 7:30am to 9:30am which is an hour before news and an hour after news. And so if that happens and you get the changes to delivery within that time frame, then boot, you're going to have a very high probability trade on your hands. And as usual, I will definitely update this on my Twitter as we go. So feel free to follow me at Underscore the art of crypto. I will, I just keep you guys posted. Also, this is where I'm posting most of my altcoin trades and altcoin just ideas in general. But anyways, if you've watched this channel for a while and you like what you see, you see that this actually works. And if you would like my help to help you just learn the system for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Have a great weekend. Bye bye.