Bitcoin: Weekly Candle Is Not Looking Good

What's up, guys? So the scenario that we mapped out before I left on hiatus has so far come true. Overall, Bitcoin is still in the downtrend and so we took partial profits here, set the stop loss to break even because we anticipated something like this could happen in this video. I'm going to give you guys the update. Considering that a week has passed since the last video, I'm going to give you the game plan for this week as well as how to trade today as well as how to play every day. Because so far, so good. We have been right basically for like three weeks in a row now. Minor mistakes here and there, but overall we're getting the big picture right. Before I get into it though, to all of you guys who have been wondering where I am, I am so sorry that I could not make a video over the last week. Between traveling and falling sick. Life hasn't been, well, the most pleasant and I haven't had the ability to just record a video. Now that I'm settled in to the new place, these daily videos are going to come back and let's start diving into playing the markets right once more. So without any further ado, we have to start off on the higher time frame because we always start the analysis on higher time frame and then we go onto lower time frame. Problems arise when we start looking at into and zooming into the details before looking at the big picture, especially before looking at the environment that we're in. That can cause a lot of issues because we can get lost in the noise. So let's start off on a higher time frame and focus on what matters. Today we have a new weekly candle, which means last week we have the weekly candle close. Now this is very important for dictating what we want to be looking for in this week. Just like how we were able to predict this pump here based on the weekly close here as well as the weekly candle that swept this low, we're going to do the same here. So we're getting a very similar setup here in the sense that we have swept the previous weekly high, but we failed to close above it. Now, this is a very strong sign of weakness. Not trying to be oxymoronic there, but the fact that price swept high and failed to close above it means that there is a lack of interested buyers in keeping price above this level. What we wanted to see to be bullish this week is to close above. And it's the exact same situation we got after you swept this low. There was enough interested buys to push the price above this level, hence you got a bullish weekly close above this level, which ends up making this a liquidity sweep. But then you close above and that's what led to this pump. Now, the inverse is true at the moment where you swept high, but then you failed to close above. Now you're showing weakness. And so this tells me that this week's bias is very likely going to head towards the downside. Now, of course, we don't want to just go off of one factor. You know, that's not how we do things here. And let's try to add some confluence to this. The confluence is that the moment we head onto the daily chart, you're going to see this much more clearly. But for the most part we are still within bearish order flow in the sense that let's hop onto the daily. This is the bearish order block that we said needed to get broken through before we can confidently say without a shadow of a doubt that hey, bitcoin is bullish and we are going to form a new all time high. That did not happen. It's also the reason why we drew out this scenario here because overall, since 20th of January, like exactly two months now, Bitcoin has been on a straight up bearish order flow. That's a bearish order block. Trades below, fails to break above it, and then trades below again. This is your new bearish order block price breaks down, comes back up, fails to break above it. Boom. And now this becomes the new bearish order block price raise up, fails to break above it. And for now, this is just looking like continuation. So that is going to be the confluence that we need to just be able to say like, hey, you know, this week is going to be bearish until otherwise proven. So let's see what needs to happen in order for our theory to get proven. First of all, you have now this new bearish order block that needs to get broken through in order for us to say, hey, we are bullish again. This could happen this week, but chances are this week is going to hit lower. Now this is also coming at a time where if we go and look at potential PD arrays that we can trade from over there, you have a favorite gap and this is on the day chart. This perhaps it's a fairly gap, but it's going to be a really, really tiny one. So right there till right there is technically a fair value gap. Although depending on which chart that you're looking at right now I'm on the binance perpetual futures, it could be a Bit different. So right now, given that our bias is towards the downside, this is how we're anticipating it to play out. This is the weekly open right this morning during the Asian session, that is when the weekly chart open up. If we are bearish, we want to look for sells above the open so that we can buy below the open and then you get a weekly close. This is the exact same thing that we drew out last week where, sorry, not last week, like two weeks ago, where you had the weekly open over here, Monday, where we wanted to look for buys below the open, we wanted to sell above the open. In that case we had a clear target and then the weekly close. Right. So right now if we want to play this scenario right here, there are two areas of interest where we want to look for, well, technically three, because right here is also the start of the order block. So either at 83,500, 83,800 or if you were to come back down up to 84,600, all of these are valid areas or valid PD areas for you to start diving into shorts so that you can write the weekly expansion down. And before we are able to predict when that can happen, it's important to look at news because oftentimes news days are going to generate volatility in the markets. I just had a call with one of my bootcamp students recently, shout out to Clarence and we were basically talking about this concept that, that in trading you always have three variables that you're trying to narrow down. One is going to be price, right? The direction of price, is it going to go down or is it going to go up? Second variable is how far is it going to go down? Or how far is it going to go up? Now the third variable is when is it going to happen? Slash how long is it going to take for that to happen? Slash how long is the move going to last? Oftentimes the third variable can be very hard to predict. Like we can be right about, you know, our macro picture. Oh, okay, Bitcoin's going to form a new all time high. But the, like it's not going to matter if it's, you know, it's going to take 10 years to happen because then we're going to be in a 10 year bear market. Everyone's going to raise their pitchforks and come over to my house and burn it down because I was wrong. And so what news is able to do for you is that it kind of narrows down one of those variables for you. The fact that you know that There is going to be volatility on a news day means that you can focus much more on the first and second variable, which is just reading technical analysis. Direction of price and where it's going to go can be mostly determined through technical analysis. The only thing that's kind of tough to do is to determine when that will happen. And that's what news does for you. So from what we can see here, there is USD red news tomorrow. We also have it on Wednesday. This is non farm payroll. We have NFP on Friday. Now this week is shaping up to be a very volatile week because we have USD news red news every single day leading up to nfp. This is also the start of the month. So I'm sorry, as of the Moment it is the 31st of March, which means that today is going to be the end of the month. But tomorrow, starting tomorrow is going to be the start of the month, which means a new monthly candle. And it would only make sense that the monthly candle sets the tone for the rest of the month. So yeah, this is looking like kind of a aggressive, you know, volatile week. And so right now we can predict that as long as you get this type of setup anytime during the week, you can take advantage of that to build the weekly playbook. And in this case, the target is going to be right here at about basically $80,000 right now. We have already swept out this liquidity right here or is about to, right? Yeah, okay, it's about to. Not quite yet, but it will probably even by the end of the day. So overall, just look for cells above the weekly open and then you can ride a short term trade lasting two, three, maybe four days, all the way down to $80,000. I'm going to narrow in to just build some further setups for you guys. Now that we have the weekly profile, let's take a look at how we can play the daily profile. So assuming that on Monday, well, we usually don't trade Mondays also because there is no news today. So it would be best to wait for, you know, Tuesday to develop more price action before we get in. But if you were to be trading on Monday right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, we're just about entering into the New York session so far. Let's take a look at how Asia played out. So we can see that Asia for the most part has just been ranging. London also just kind of ranged. It did not take out either the Asia high or the Asia low. And it's just again ranging. But right before New York, which is at 6am, you did almost sweep out that low right there, but at the moment you're pumping. So this might lead me to believe that the fact that you have relative equal lows here means that this is a inducement to trick retail traders into going long here. You have also relatively equal highs, which is essentially just the range highs over at this point here. Also, this is kind of starting to maybe look like a breakout, but like, we know better than that. So potentially the setup for today heading into New York, which is right now, is something like this. But chances are, I don't think we're going to get such an like volatile move today. Chances are it's probably going to happen tomorrow. Chances are it's going to happen the rest of the week, but not today. So if you start seeing price sweep over this level and you start getting change in state of delivery, then you can absolutely trade it lower. But personally, I would try to avoid trading today. And the setup that I'm really going to look for is again, back at these highs here. Overall, you are in bearish order flow, even in terms of the one hourly, right? That's your bearish order block. Price breaks down. This becomes your new bearish order block. Price breaks down. Right now you're retesting into this bearish order block, which makes this a valid setup, by the way. Like, this can be a valid setup. So if it happens, feel free to take it. But if not, chances are Monday is going to give you some kind of a market maker buy model, I think, right? This is just a prediction. So this is your original consolidation right here. You're probably going to get a second leg up and then a third leg up into some kind of key level. It can either be this one right here or it could be this one right here before either Wednesday, Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on how quickly this happens. Boom, you get a breakdown. This is the exact same model that we used all the way back here to predict that, hey, you know, price is about the dump, sl, price is about to pump right here. This is your original consolidation. You have your first leg up, that's your second leg up into some kind of liquidity level. And then price starts breaking down. Now, in this case, like, the conditions were very different because back here we were bullish, right? We were not bearish. And so we kind of disregarded this market maker buy, sorry, market maker sell model. But this time around we are bearish. And if you do get a market maker sell model, which is again, 1, consolidation, 2 consolidation, 3 consolidation and you start breaking lower. This is the recipe that's set up for a really beautiful move. On a side note, I am going to be hosting a macro masterclass for absolutely free in four days. Inside, I'm going to be teaching you guys exactly how to read macro and how to position yourselves in terms of the macro trend. All the details will be available within the first link of the description box below. Again, it's free and every time I've done one of these three masterclasses you guys know it is all value, no fluff, no bs. It's just going to go really deep and you guys are going to walk away with a lot of new knowledge as well as a game plan for how to approach reading macro. Otherwise, if you enjoy learning about these market analyses based on the smart money trading perspective on crypto, make sure you subscribe. I'm going to be back on the videos, especially throughout this week. Otherwise, have a good trading day and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.