Bitcoin: We're At The Decision Point

What's up everyone? So yesterday's video, we talked about how we had a potential long setup during London session yesterday targeting the previous daily high. That has played out pretty much spot on because, you know, you have validated the order block and boom, off you go. And in this video I'm going to give you the playbook for today. Just giving you an update on the weekly plan that we had come up with, you know, during the start of the week. And given that it's Wednesday at the moment, we have news heading into Thursday and Friday, non farm payrolls, this is going to be a really interesting week to watch out for. Now just a quick little side note, we are hosting a free masterclass this Friday inside. I've made pretty much like 150 slides on how do you use macro for crypto. These are stuff like, you know, I'm going to teach you how to read interest rates, inflation, stuff like that. And this is just, you know, the core, you know, macro factors. There are of course volatility, how to track stablecoin flows, and how to just essentially use macro so that you're getting into crypto when the bull run's about to begin and you know when to get out by reading macro. So if you're interested, guys, it's free, it's just pure value, no fluff, no bs. First link in the description box below. And now let's get into the video. So early on in the week we talked about how the first, second and potentially even third day of the week is going to be, you know, pointing towards the upside. We discussed how we have a potential market maker sell model setting up on the lower time frames. And in this case, this is your original consolidation. That's your first leg up. In this case that's your second and, and third leg up. Ultimately, currently market structure has broken after sweeping the high. This blue box here is a daily fever gap. And so if there is a day where bitcoin continues to go lower, then this is going to be the day. Now the area that you want to look out for is going to be this blue box. I mean, this gray box right here. We're going to discuss that in a bit though. For now let's just go back up onto the daily chart so that you guys can keep in mind what is the bigger picture. In fact, let's start off on the weekly chart. Just to reiterate again, right now we're in a situation where the last time we had a liquidity sweep underneath a previous weekly level and you failed close below it we basically got a long trade for three and a half hours. Now, we did already secure our partial profit at this previous weekly high there, and currently price has already started dumping. This is again the exact same setup as what we had back here where we have a liquidity sweep above the previous, or rather the weekly high of two weeks ago. But prices failed to close above the level, which signifies weakness and a lack of, you know, willing buyers at these high prices to continue pushing the market higher. And this makes sense because if you take a look at the daily chart, you are overall still in bearish order flow right here. That's your bearish order block. You break down, you try to break above it, but you got rejected instead and boom, you form another bearish order block. You break down, you try to, you know, break above it, you fail and you keep going down at the moment. This is the order block that we need to overcome this one right here for us to say like without a shadow of a doubt that, hey, bitcoin is bullish. And until that happens, we are going to be leaning towards bullish price coming into this bearish order block and for continuation towards the bearish side. So that is the bigger picture so far. And we have been pretty spot on with this over the last two to three weeks. And so this is still playing out. And so now we go onto the daily, and I think we might have a potential setup here. First of all, I want to draw your eyes to this low and this low right here. These are relatively equal lows, which means that this is going to be a draw on liquidity that is going to trick a lot of retail traders, or just traders alike into thinking that, hey, you know, market is quote unquote, having strong support here, and they're going to be led to believe that, hey, you know, you're going to go up from here. In reality, though, relatively equal lows or relatively equal highs act as a drawn liquidity. Which means chances are, even if you were to go long, I wouldn't do it here because I do think that these levels are going to get swept out before some kind of an up move. The same thing that happens here where you have a swing high, like if you take a look at the most explosive moves in the market, you'll always see that down moves, big down moves tend to be preceded by a liquidity sweep on the buy side and boom, there you go. And similarly, the most aggressive moves in this case, this is not very aggressive because overall, you still in a downtrend. That's why this is not very impressive. But the up move begins after you sweep out Southside liquidity. Same thing here. We have just swept out buy side liquidity at the moment. Southside has not yet been swept yet. And so this leads my thesis to believe that we are overall still going to head lower, even though the first couple of days were, you know, pumping. And I'm going to give you the exact scenario and the exact criteria that you want to look for in order to get into a trade. And potentially I think you might have a trade even today. So on a one hourly chart, you're getting something similar here where you have a sweep of buy side liquidity and price immediately breaks structure forming a bearish order block. At the moment it is the London session. As of the time that I'm recording this, in fact, it is almost the end of the London kill zone. In fact it is the end of the London kill zone. As of right now it's 5:01am and so chances are your opportunity is going to lie within the New York session starting in just about a couple of hours. And if you do retrace into here anywhere between 7am to like 9am and you fail to show any sort of bullish reaction, basically if you trade into this bearish order block right here and you fail to close above it, then that's going to be your signal to go short. And chances are your entry is going to be, you know, anywhere within the order block. Stop above the strong high. Here a strong high is just a high that has swept liquidity. And so we anticipate that that level is not going to get revisited anytime soon. Now that is going to be the setup if you get it. Now there is also a potential that today could also just continue going up. And that leads me to this green box that I drew right here. Now this green box is, if you take a look at the one hourly chart, disregarding the market maker sell model, you can see that overall you are in bullish order flow in the sense that this green box right here is a bullish order block that prices traded into during the London session and currently it's heading higher. So overall one hourly trend is still heading towards the upside. And this is why we do an analysis on the higher time frames first to keep in mind the bigger picture, because bigger picture is bearish. Now the lower time frame might not add up yet. And so using the higher time frame we can formulate a lower time frame plan of action following criteria. And in this case it's going to be coming into here. During the New York session, if you fail to close any candle, like if you don't get any bullish candle closes on the one hourly chart above bearish order block, then you're good to go. But if you start getting bullish candle closes above the order block, then you know, today might not be the day where we go short. Now there is also a second scenario where this swing high right here might just get swept before price hits lower. If we take a look at, you know, potential liquidity levels, we can see that, you know, for the most part it's already been swept, like right here. See those relative equal highs right there, how it acts as a drawing liquidity, you're seeing it right now, price sweeps and boom, right? And we're getting that set up here. One, two, those are relatively equal lows. And so second scenario to happen is potentially something like this. Now this is going to take much more time to play out potentially over the course of the entirety of New York morning, but it's a second scenario to keep in mind. So we've discussed the bullish scenario and we've discussed the bearish scenario. Now let's try to think one step ahead. Today's Wednesday. Friday we have non fund payrolls. Non fund payrolls, for those of you who don't know, is probably the most volatile news event there is basically aside from like interest rate announcements, maybe cpi, maybe fomc, but I think northamparel still takes the cake. And so this is going to be a volatile week overall. We've seen it already with just how Monday and Tuesday have reacted. And so far Wednesday has been pretty volatile as well. And this is what we want to see as traders. We want volatility. Volatility is good because if there is no volatility, the markets are boring and we get chopped up. So there is also a chance that, you know, the market just starts ranging around this level before we get a true move towards the downside tomorrow. But again, right now we have a potential market maker sell model already in play. Now one last faka like this is a bearish scenario. But the most bearish scenario, let's just put it that way, is if you get a rejection off of this order block right here and you start getting bearish candle closes underneath this green box right here, that will signal a change in state of delivery, which basically is just a fancy term for saying that the order flow has changed. And once this happens, there is, let's just say there is without a shadow of a doubt that price has now become bearish and you are about to start going lower. So this is going to be the game plan for today. Now, I would love to go long here purely based off of the lower time frame order flow, but the fact that, you know, we are kind of anticipating some kind of bearish move on the daily chart as well as the weekly chart. And in fact, price is tapping into this order block as we speak. And so right now we just want to see, you know, within the next couple of hours. You don't want to see price break above and close above. What you want to see though is just a wick here and price starts forming bearish candles. That will be, you know, the signal that you need. I'm not confident to just say, you know, put a limit order here right now and just, you know, target that low. It's a bit too early to tell for now, but we do have a potential setup. And yeah, I could totally be wrong on the bearish, you know, bias like this weekly candle could just completely get overcome, which, in which case this is good for crypto. It's just based on the information that I have right now from this, from last week's candle closure, we would anticipate a open high low close where we sell above the weekly open and we look to buy back during, well, the bearish expansion basically. Now the way that this gets invalidated is if this week just starts closing bullish and price just keeps trading higher. When you get a bullish candle close here, what's going to happen is that this entire down close candle here is going to become your weekly bullish order block. And boom, next week is going to also be very easy, you know, just trading towards the upside. For now, I'm just playing it based on what I can see and based on my understanding of the markets. So hopefully this gives you a really good idea of what to expect heading into the New York session today. Remember guys, there is a free masterclass going on this Friday. It's all about macro. It is going to be everything you need to know about macro and how to use it for crypto. We're going to go through case studies, we're going to go through about 150 slides. There's going to be bonus materials for you, a quiz, a flashcards and all that good stuff. I know this is not going to be one of those webinars, you know, quote unquote webinars where, you know, I just spend half the time selling you something. We're actually going to go in depth. There's going to be a lot of value. And I hope to see you guys there. Bye. Bye.