Bitcoin hasn't closed below a critical weekly level, so the long-term bullish case holds, but near-term caution is warranted. Watch 115,000 daily resistance and the 7-10am New York window for intraday moves. This week is lower-probability with limited news, so trade small until order-flow confirms direction.
Questions this video answers
115,000 (daily close above this level).
119,600 (primary) and potentially 118,400 (earlier stated target).
Approximately 110,400.
Between 7:00–10:00am New York (with a specific sweep/entry window often referenced as 8:00–10:00am).
0.0375 (daily close on ETH/BTC).
Chapters
All right, good guys, welcome back to another video. The Bull Run is still alive. The dream is not dead. So if you remember last Friday I mentioned that not closing below this level on the weekly chart was going to be one of the biggest signals that we were possibly going to get that the Bull Run is still alive and things are not going down yet. Well, keyword yet. Like I don't know what's going to happen, but at the very least, based on what the market has shown us, I would say it is a little bit more likely now that the boron is still alive and there's still a chance that we are going to continue going up. And one thing's for sure, it is looking less and less like capitulation, more and more as just some sign of short term distribution for just to sweep out the weekends before price continues going back up to the upside. That is my take. So in this video we're going to talk a little bit more about the long term outlook for Bitcoin and give you guys the intraday setup. So let's kick things off with that long term outlook. Now the reason why we did not want to see a candle close below here is that that would signal a change in state of delivery to the bearish direction. Now this is the concept that we have used throughout the last like eight months where I've been making 151 public trade calls right here on YouTube. This is one of the most consistent signals that we have gotten when it comes to our trades. And again, the proof is in the pudding, right? This is kind of like an 80% hit rate kind of strategy. And even if you account for some losing streaks, it's still good enough for 70% of the time. So as change in state of delivery essentially just means that we're going shift from a period of bullish order flow where you are having bullish order blocks and bullish fairy gaps being, you know, respected, to a bearish order flow state where now you start disrespecting them and you start respecting bearish PD arrays instead and price is just going to go down from that point onwards. So the fact that this has not happened is a really good sign. It means that we could potentially still look for price to go up this week. However, because we still ultimately closed bearish, the bias for this week is still going to be bearish either way. This level is still going to be the one to hold like you can trade below it, don't get me wrong, but you just don't really want to close below it. Now One could argue that even if you were to close below this level, it's still fine because we have had situations in the past before where we have, you know, just one candle close and ultimately price continued to go up. And in this case it is the same as well where we have this fair value gap that has not yet been filled. If you draw a fib from this low to this high, this fairly gap here lines up with the 0.705. So that is still the argument that you could just go down here before, you know, this being the retracement and then you continue on with the trend. Kind of like what we see before with this one right here where we fill in a further gap and boom, off you go back in the trend. The only concern with this one is the fact that this previous one was just one bearish PD array. Now in the event that you go all the way down here, you are looking at a much bigger PD array and potentially a lot more volume to overcome. That would be the only concern. But again, like we play it one day at a time. We can have our opinions about the market, but what's important is that we trade what the market is telling us. This was also the exact methodology that has allowed us to, you know, capture all of these shorts, make sure we caught the top while everyone was getting wrecked. In the event that we sweep these relatively low highs at around the hours between 8 to 10am, we're going to be looking for price to give a short term timeframe, right, meaning the five minute chart to start breaking lower and then we're going to take that trade down to 119,600 or potentially lower based on the targets that I've set before I think it was 118400. So at the moment we're going to show you what the market is telling us so far. Not yet bearish, but short term, like because of the last weekly candle we are looking a bit bearish. So we're going to look for shorts as we head into this week. Unless something changes on the daily chart then we can start flipping towards the long side. Just understand that in terms of the grand scheme of things, you are still looking very bullish. Not just price action wise, but also macroeconomically wise. Like in a few months we could potentially be looking at minus 100 or even minus 200 basis points in terms of interest rates. And that is going to be a wonderful place to be in for risk on assets like crypto, like bitcoin, like the stock market and stuff. Along Those lines. So besides that, you also have gold, obviously, being really strong right now. Everyone is kind of flocking into gold, but it's a matter of time until this kind of finds its top. I just want to show you what happens once we find some kind of top on gold. Right. This was 10th of August 2020, and that is when you went to a little, you know, bearish period all the way until March of 2021. Now, if I just go to bitcoin for that exact same period. Let's see here. March of 2020. Sorry, August of 2020. Right. So this was around August of 2020. Boom. That was when gold found its top, and kaboom. Now, obviously, there are a lot of other factors, and obviously that gold found the bottom at around March, and that's when bitcoin also kind of found its top. Now, this is just like one isolated incident, of course, like, this is not a huge amount of sample size, but the conditions for the market this time around does look pretty similar in the sense that back then, we started getting more rate cuts. And obviously right now we're in the start of a period where we're about to go into rate cuts. Again, slight differences in macroeconomic kind of conditions. But the playbook, I think, is going to be down to a combination of factors, right? We take into account price action, which at the moment is looking bullish. We take into account macroeconomic factors, which right now is bearish, but heading in a bullish direction. And then we take into account other stuff, like, for example, $20 billion worth of liquidations just happened in that one singular candle. And that's a really good sign because everyone who was just in free profit over the last few months got wiped out. Everyone who was irresponsible with your money got wiped out. Everyone who is new to the markets and don't know what they're doing and take on really huge sums of leverage got wiped out. And that's a good thing. It's a healthy thing for the market because in order to go higher, you need fuel. Like, the market isn't just going to go higher just because, you know, you buy into bitcoin or whatever. In order for the market to go up, you need loser. Losers ultimately feed into people opening winning positions, right? Without these people, for example, getting stopped out here and having to market sell here, there would be no liquidity for the big players who are looking to buy into this area. Without losers. You do not have big players pushing the market towards the upside. You do not have big players buying into positions at good prices so that the market can eventually go up. So there, I repeat that twice. Make sure you remove the first one. So anyways, that's enough about the long term. Just understand that right now my opinion is that you know, we're overall bullish. I haven't personally seen signs yet that the market is over. So look to accumulate. These are really good times to be accumulating at the moment. Same similar to, you know, what happened back here where I called the bottom. I thought you guys do hey, you know, buy bitcoin, buy altcoins, whatever and you know, a lot of people make money thanks to that. Same with here. If you guys listen right now we're still bullish anyways, that's enough about the long term. Let's start getting into the short term now. So in terms of the short term, we closed Bullish yesterday but we are heading into some sort of a negative PD array right here. So we going to anticipate Price, you know, getting rejected from this point onwards rather than, you know, breaking through it. But if Price breaks through this, this will set a very beautiful precedent where this is a at the moment a bearish resistance level. If you, if you're able to break through it and flip it into support then that's good news and Price is going to continue on from that point onwards. We really want to see this level right here at 115,000 get broken through at least closed above during the daily chart for us to confirm any sort of bullishness. Until then we're going to play any sort of longs that we do take with utmost caution. It doesn't mean that we cannot take any longs. We just want to play it safe either taking half risk positions or taking profit at 2r. Not looking for too big of a move. Now obviously this changes once we get this change in order flow. It's the exact same concept that I shared with you on the weekly chart where closing below this level right here would have meant a bearish change in state of delivery. Closing above this level right here would be a bullish change in state of delivery because currently bitcoin is in a state of bearish order flow and ideally we want it to change into bullish order flow before we start taking longs because ultimately the trend is our friend and we always want to trade with the trend. But anyways, given that the daily bias is bullish, the you know, the setup for today is going to be bullish again. There is a difference between my opinion that you know, Price is likely to dump from here versus what the market is actually telling me. And for the case of today it is bullish and so we are going to look for longs. Now mind you, Price could for example do something like this at let's say 8am to let's say 10am but then after 10am it could continue going down. The key with these videos that I'm making is that we are trying to catch one high probability move during the day and we are not trying to capture the largest move of the day. That is not what this intraday setup is for. So as long as we get our 2R, that is considered a win. Of course I will be posting any trades that I do take on Twitter. Now, speaking about Twitter for a moment just to give you guys an update for those of you, you know, people that are loyal and have watched until this point, I will be flying to Bali tomorrow and around this time, like right now, I'll probably be still on the plane. So expect there not to be a video tomorrow. Like I just physically am unable to record a video. But I will be back on Wednesday and if there is something that needs to be updated tomorrow, let's say there's a trade call or whatever, I'm going to be posting on Twitter. So feel free to just follow me on Twitter. The Art of Crypto Otherwise, there are a couple of One is right here on this fertility gap that we are currently in right now and then the second one is going to be this fertility gap that aligns with this bullish order block. So in the hours between 7am to 10am today, if we start getting a bullish reaction from this favority gap or this favorite gap or this order block. Now if we get a bullish reaction between 7am to 10am around this or this order block right here, we're going to be looking for a long. Now for those of you that are wondering which one is going to be the bottom, I don't know. It's not my job as a trader to figure that out either. Like, all I can say is that these are three high probability zones where if you get a bullish reaction in between the hours of Sen to 10am New York, you are going to have a pretty good time and you're going to have a pretty high probability trade on your hands and that's ultimately what we're hunting for. As traders, it's not our job to predict. It's our job to map out possible scenarios and then map out the conditions for those scenarios to be fulfilled. And then once they are Happening we simply read and react. So let's just go down to the five minute chart to see what we're dealing with. So at the moment we are retracing on the way to retracing back to the Asia High which sits at around110,400. This also aligns with some kind of bullish order block on the five minute chart. So there are two possible scenarios here. One is we bounce straight up from this point onwards. Mind you, as of the time that I'm recording this video at the Moment it is 5:50am in the event that you just go up from here and you break above 11 like 111400 and at that point you can just look for a retracement into this newly formed order block and for price to go up again, it's 7 to 10. Secondly, you can look for price to come back to the Asia High, fill in this order block and then if you get a change to state of delivery on the five minute, that is going to be your trigger. Now scenario number three is that once you enter here, you're going to sweep out this, you know, previous liquidity level right here, fill in the one hour deferability gap. And again if you get some kind of reaction, I would assume if we go all the way down here, the ideal trade setup is going to be between 8am to 10am Then that's going to be the setup that you take. Now before you jump to say that, oh yeah, I'm just calling like three different scenarios. No direction is still the same. We are looking for a long. It's just the difference of I cannot predict if this, this or this or this is going to be the bottom, that's it. But the overall direction, that is the call. Now the secondly, another word of caution is the fact that we do not have news today, which means that today is a lower probability day compared to the rest of the week. Now of course you can argue that at the moment the US government is being impacted by a shutdown at the moment, which means that, you know, there is technically no news being released. The beautiful thing about this situation though is kind of like it goes back to what I've been telling you guys from the start, which is the news itself does not matter. It is the anticipation of market participants towards the news that is what counts. Just to give you an example, in the last couple of weeks that the US government has gone through a shutdown every single day at, you know, what would otherwise be news days. And at news times the market has been reacting Guess why? Again, the news doesn't matter. It's just everyone is looking for those times to trade and that's what makes newsdays so high probability. So even though like we are going through a shutdown at the moment, just take what would otherwise be those news times and we're still going to be ideally looking for trades on these days. And in this week we only have one day that officially on forexfactory has news and that's going to be on Friday. So potentially Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday is not going to be particularly good for trading bitcoin. And that's normal. If you've ever heard the saying of how some days are not trading days, some weeks are not trading weeks, in this case, it's definitely looking like a lower probability trading week for bitcoin now. Absolutely amazing. For Canadian dollar, if you look at Canadian dollar right now, you're definitely going to have a very high quality setup, right? This is easy money. Now if you look at the pound, you're going to have a pretty good setup as well. But anyways, what I'm trying to say is that just take into account that we're not going to have much news heading into this week. So it could just be overall lower probability kind of week. So again, not to say that we cannot take trades. We just want to really play it safe. We take into account the market conditions that we're dealing with. And in this case it is not one of those market conditions where we just go full risk and you know, go balls to the walls. There's a time and a moment to do that, but that is not today and that is not probably, and that is likely not this week, for example. Not only are we running into some kind of resistance at the moment, so we do need to give the market some time to see how it's going to play out. But at the same time we have no news. And so at that le, we have just gone through a very big dump, which means the market is still trying to stabilize. So again, all in all, this is not great conditions. I will still be making calls, I will still be making these videos, don't worry. So that you guys can at least still make some money out of these conditions, as we have always done for the last eight months. But just understand that these are not the best trading setups. And if you ever wanted to take a week off of, you know, crypto or trading or whatever, this is probably a good week to do it. Or if you, if you've ever wanted to pick up USD Canadian, this is also a pretty good week to do so. Very bullish bias. If you take a look at the daily currently bearish. But Price is bouncing from a bullish order block at the moment. Taking a look at one hourly. In the event that we break above this level right here, you are potentially looking at some sort of CISD and this will be in line with tomorrow where you're going to return back to this area of support and Price is going to shoot once you get CPI and once you get the news event. Right, Easy money. It's not about like for those of you that say that, oh for those of you that wonder if these concepts work on Forex, they do. As long as anything has a candlestick chart, these are the same concepts that work. Ultimately every single chart doesn't matter if it's Forex, if it's gold, if it's indices or whatever, they are still the same chart with just different packaging on them. Right? One of them is called USD Canadian, the other one's called Bitcoin, but ultimately it's a chart. So if you have a limiting belief that says oh, if you always trade a crypto, you can only trade crypto. So that's false. And I hope that you can take this opportunity to kind of broaden your horizons. Anyways, enough about Bitcoin, let's take a look at Ethereum real quick. Ethereum is again looking very bullish because unlike Bitcoin right now you are sitting much higher compared to this low right here. Given the fact that you did not come anywhere close to closing below, that leads me to believe that you are looking at a potential imminent alt season. But still the level remains. I want to see a break above here, 0.0375 a daily close on Ethereum Bitcoin before I consider any sort of old season because if this happens, this is a bullish changes state of delivery and Price is going to turn this entire block right here into support and price is just going to shoot up from this point onwards. So patience will pay here, but we're probably not going to have to wait super long anymore. Now of course if that happens, Ethereum is going to coincide with something like this where you can look for this, but at the moment we're just going to pay it day by day. In terms of the macro, not enough confirmations yet, so. So because of the bullish daily close, I'm going to be looking for short sorry longs today and in Ethereum's case it's so much more clear. Right, you have a fair bit gap that also aligns with this order block. So in the event that ethereum retraces here, 7 to 10am, take it to our trade. That is simple, easy, no sweat. Let's move on to Solana. So in terms of Solana weekly looking good, obviously you're still bearish weekly bias, but on the daily you are also looking pretty good. Again, this would be the same level reflected on the Ethereum chart. This is going to reflect on the Solana chart which is at let's say $208. Because we're bullish on the daily bias, we're going to be looking for longs today and we don't really have a whole load of levels. One is that we have just filled in this over the gap, which means that if price pumps from this point onwards and has a one hourly candle close above 194, you're going to get a just some kind of momentum trade, right? This becomes your new order block and you can just trade price higher. So that's scenario one. Scenario two is that you retrace back into this poverty gap, slash this bullish order block, right? And in the event that you retrace back into here, then this is going to be your setup. Obviously look at this, between the hours of 7:00am to 10:00am, but otherwise, guys, I'm gonna see you on Wednesday again. I'm gonna be on a flight tomorrow and see you guys in Bali. Ciao.
