YouTube video by The Art Of Crypto (Mar 4, 2025) analyzing a recent Bitcoin price move and whether a reversal setup is invalidated. The presenter defends prior analysis, emphasizes probabilistic trading, higher-timeframe patience (daily/weekly), range deviation mechanics, fair value gaps and order blocks, and gives criteria (key price levels) that would confirm or invalidate a bullish thesis.
Chapters
Good morning, guys. So in yesterday's video, we basically said that we were in already at the start of some kind of reversal pattern. And this is a pattern that has repeated time and time again across, you know, bitcoin's history ever since 2022. And even if you look back at 2020, you will see an example of this playing out. And this tends to happen around once a year. Since then, bitcoin has actually dumped by almost 10,000 points. And this has led many people to wonder, hey, is this a cause for concern? Are we actually going to go lower? Is this setup going to get invalidated? And in this video, I'm going to aim that to address these issues and I'm going to give you guys the facts with disregarding the current market sentiment or how we may be feeling about the market at the moment. I'm just going to consider all of the possibilities and give you the various scenarios that could play out. And ultimately I'm going to tell you essentially what I think could be the most high probability outcome that can play out. Now, before I get into this video though, something very important I need to address and that is the reactions of some of you from yesterday's video. Now, guys, one thing that I'm really puzzled when I get these really negative comments that say, like, oh, you're a noob. Oh, this guy doesn't know how to treat. He's always wrong. When did you guys make that comment? I'm really, really wondering if you have actually took the time to watch, you know, to the later segments or like just random segment of the video. Because guys, if there's one thing I said yesterday is that, hey, we are not going to go just fully up right away. We're in the first week of March. You usually the first weeks of every month tends to be a consolidatory month. I also said that it's very likely that we're just going to chop around in between the previous weekly low and the previous weekly high and anything can happen. Like literally, it doesn't matter if you go up, down, sideways, chop left, right, inside, outside, as long as you remain within this 96,000 level and this 78,000 level, this week is probably just going to be an inside bar and chances are you shouldn't be looking for your opportunities this week. Now this is not me trying to justify my actions or trying to run away from the fact that, oh yeah, year I could have made a wrong prediction. But the fact of the matter is that I, I said that when you guys make these really Negative comments. At the end of the day, it was a probabilities game. I gave you guys the most high likelihood probabilities, I give you guys the highest likelihood scenarios and I give you exact criteria for seeing these scenarios play out yet. So why am I a trading noob in this case? You know, you guys do realize that when you. Yeah, I don't know, I am a little bit pissed whenever I see these comments. Especially like there are times when I make a prediction and I'm wrong. And yeah, I take it. I take full responsibility and I take full accountability of that. But in cases where yeah, like people just see the thumbnail and be like, oh yeah, you know, it's going to go up, what's the point of watching the videos then in these case. So yeah, just kind of take a moment to address that. And also in quick little a little mindset thing, which is again, I also mentioned this exact sentence in yesterday's video and I feel like I should reiterate this in today's video because a lot of you don't seem to get this. And the people that don't really struggle with trading, which is the fact that, guys, we're looking at a weekly chart, slash, a daily chart. The nature of this higher time frame means that things are going to take time to play out. Yes, I do think that like at the very moment it's still playing out, right? You haven't broken the low, you haven't broken the high. It's no cause for concern yet. And so if the overall bias is still towards the upside, and we have reason to believe why it is overall to the upside, you know, given the fact that we're filling in a weekly favorite gap, we are currently in a monthly favor gap. We, we also have a potential. Right guys? So the cable of my microphone actually fell out, so I'm just going to pick up where I left off. So again, we have reason to believe that we are still going to the upside. Why? Because the last time that we went above the range highs, it was range deviation. And right now we're at range lows deviating. And again, this is something that has happened, you know, time and time again and this is exactly how it plays out. And currently we're in the weekly fiber gap. Currently we're still within a really large range in terms of the weekly candle. And again, the thing that we need to understand right now and the thing that I hope that you guys can understand for your own benefit, not because I might be pissed or whatever, is the fact that we're looking at a higher timeframe. Daily slash weekly means that things take time to play out. And a lot, a lot of people really underestimate the amount of time that it takes for confirmations to happen. Like I remember there was one time where I made a video and I was showing the exact ideal A plus setup for, you know, how to buy a dip. And the guy's comment was immediately like, oh, wow. But that takes four. Like it would have been 14 days before you got a confirmation. Yeah, no, bull markets last for like months or even years. And these accumulation patterns last for three to six months. And a change in your trend, like going from let's say pumping to dumping goes through like a distribution period of like three months. We saw that back in 2021, we saw that back in 2018. We saw that back in the bear market. Look, price, once it reached the bottom, right, it wouldn't have been like, let's see here, 13th of June, all the way until 9th of January, 2023, when we finally got an aggressive move upwards that actually formed a change in state of delivery slash, a break in market structure that would have confirmed a potential bull market. Guys, that is 6th of June until January of 2023. This is six months. Like we're looking at a weekly chart here, we're looking at the daily chart here. It's only reasonable to assume that it's not going to take 12 hours to have a confirmation. It's probably going to take a few days, probably going to take a couple of weeks. Exactly what I mentioned in yesterday's video. Nice. We're in week one of March tends to be accumulation WA2 or potentially week three before you, before you get like a high probability setup. Number two, understand the weekly ranges. This is your previous weekly high. This is your previous weekly low until like literally for the LA for the next like 5 days and 18 hours. Because there's 5 days and 19 hours until we get the weekly close for the rest of this time. Price can literally do sideways, up, down, left, right, inside, outside. As long as it does not violate either one of these levels and close, let's say close below the previous weekly low, then there is no cause for concern to believe that our bullish idea has been invalidated in the first place. If you take a look at the monthly chart, this is the fucking fair value gap. This big. This is the fair value gap. I would have drawn weekly, but this is monthly. Literally. We can spend the next, however long spending inside this time, it does not invalidate the bullish idea. Right it's not about like a broken clock is right twice a day or whatever. I've seen some one person here say before, it's like, yes, we have the idea, we have reasons to believe, we have, you know, criteria that are met for us to believe in that idea. But it still takes time to play out. Guys, this is not about oh, not aging well, whatever, you know, we're looking at a weekly chart. What do you guys expect to happen in like 12, 12 hours? You think we're just going to go back to the previous all time high in 12 hours? Anyways, now that that's out of the way, just understand that again, just because we're looking at a weekly chart means that at the very least few days. Right, Give it a few days. Right now we have gotten the manipulation underneath the range lows. This is still range deviation. And yes, like this might be a higher probability outcome, but it doesn't mean that this is a 100% we are just going to pump from here on out because this is, this happens at like let's say an 80% clip. There is still two times out of ten but we're wrong. And if we look at a small enough sample size, which is, let's say if we look at, you know, only a five trade sample size, we could have three losses and two wins and we'll mistakenly believe that this system only has, or like this setup only has a 40% win rate. The sample size matters. We shouldn't be studying success rate win lose on a one like one trade sample size or in this case a one video sample size. As I'm showing you guys, historically this is what happens, right? Historically. 1, 2, 3, 4. I can already give you guys five examples of this playing out. So even if this doesn't play out, that'll make it, you know, one out of six trades that did not play out. This still puts it at like close to more than an 80% win rate. I don't know about you guys, but if this kind of an opportunity shows itself again with a over 80% win rate, I'm still going to take it. And this is what I need you guys to understand. Probabilistic thinking at the end of the day, like the way you measure probabilities is not by measuring it in too small of a sample size. And you should never get salty because it should never get salty about a wrong analysis. Why? Because first of all, you don't need to be right to make money in the market. And secondly, in the market you're always existing In a state of incomplete information. Just to give you an idea, yesterday Donald Trump came out to speak on a potential crypto strategic reserve. And for one reason or another, that wasn't useful, event that was, that I wasn't aware of. And so, and there is, by the way, like, I fully admit that, right? I don't know everything. Because chances are, like, honestly, and nobody can know everything. We're not a quantum computer. Heck, we're not even a computer. There's always going to be things. There are so many, like moving parts in the world, in the financial markets that at any given time you can have a black swan event. Boom, there you go. Markets react a opposite way, even though, you know, you made some kind of a prediction. And that's just how it is, right? This is why your probabilities in trading will never be 100% because you always have something that you don't know about. Heck, something could happen on the other side of the world right now and it could crash the market. Who knows? Yeah. Probabilities is not just like, don't, don't get salty about probabilities. First of all, measure it in a larger sample size. And second of all, like, why get salty about something that isn't 100% anyways? As long as, like, over time I have a track record proving that I am right more times than I am not. But there are times where I'm still going to be wrong. That is what it is. It could. The bat's dead stretch, the drawdown period could last for two, three months. Could even be two, three years. But, well, it's not going to last two, three years. But you get the idea anyways now that, that, you know, part of the psychology kind of mindset thing is over again. I'm not trying to attack you guys and I'm not trying to defend myself saying like, oh, you know, I'm. I can never be wrong. Or like, let's just say that I take full responsibility when I give you guys the wrong advice or I give you guys advice in a way that does not serve you. Yesterday was not one of those days. Yeah. Again, there's a reason why I talk about all of this mindset probability stuff in every video that I make. It's because it's important. If it's not important, I would not repeat it. I know you guys find it boring. I know most people find, you know, this kind of mindset stuff really boring. But honestly, it's one of the biggest hardware slash software upgrades that you could possibly make. Right? Just changing the world, like changing the way that you perceive the world can quite literally be everything because it doesn't matter how many optimizations you make later on down the line if the roots are, you know, corrupt, not corrupted. I'm not saying your roots are corrupted, but I'm just painting a picture, right? Giving you guys an example. If the roots are not strong enough, it doesn't matter how many times you like, send a gardener, a world class gardener to give it fertilizer, to chop off the branches, to optimize the growth, to do it this way, do it a certain way, doesn't matter if the roots are not solid. And in terms of roots, of, you know, how we approach trading, that is mindset, that is our worldview, that is the way that we perceive things. Those are our beliefs, what we understand to be true about the world, and in this case, what we understand to be true about trading. And I can tell you for one thing and one thing uncertain. All of the best traders in the world share these three things in common. One, they understand that trading is, has a lot to do with systems theory, right? You can control the input, you can control the process, but you cannot control the output. You sure as hell cannot control the environment that the system is trading in. You can only react and adapt accordingly, right? This means that you can only control the quality of the output, sorry, the quality of the input that you put in and the process that you're taking it through. That means only taking the good signals. And then secondly, going through a step by step system ensuring the process of execution is as best as we can be and whether or not we get a good output or a good or a bad output, this is all determined, like it's all up to the chances. Which brings me on to the second thing that I know to be true about trading and most of the really successful traders as well. Not to say I'm putting myself in a basket same as them, but you get the idea. The second thing is thinking in bets, right? Thinking in terms of probabilities, thinking in terms of if then statements. It's not about a hundred percent. It's always having multiple scenarios and preparing for each one so that whatever happens, you're always prepared to make the right decision. And the third is probably just psychology, right? Understanding that winning doesn't, sorry, being right doesn't equals money. There are a lot of analyses or like a lot of really smart people out there that do amazing analyses and yet they're not the traders that I imagine managing millions of dollars for the trading firm. And the traders on the flip side, they don't tend to do the best analyses. But when, when push comes to shove, even if they're wrong, it doesn't matter because they're still making the right play every time or at least more times out of not and they make money at the end of the day. All right, anyways, with this little mindset psychology rant out of the way, let's get into the analysis and I'm going to give you guys the facts as it is. I'm going to consider all the scenarios and you guys can make the best decision for yourselves. So the first things first, the fact that you have had a range deviation means that currently you have. Sorry, the movement that we got recently means that you're currently trading into the series of up close candles which is a level of resistance that could potentially hold price back from going higher. But the fact of the matter is that you did not trade into the candle body closes. In fact you only traded until the wicks. Let's see if we have anything on the weekly chart that might signify potential resistance and we do not. Heck, we don't even come to the previous weekly high which means one thing, whatever that this trade like means a couple of things. But more likely than not, what we're currently seeing is just some volatility that's introduced due to the news event or perhaps you know, Donald Trump speaking about the crypto strategic reserve, at least from what we can see right now, not based off of the order block. Now I think trading view is lagging at the moment. Okay, that's amazing. So the one area though that we did get rejected from is this bearish February gap right here. Now this is on the daily chart so it does hold some sort of significance. And the other thing to consider is the fact that prior to like as long as you do not break this high, by the way, as long as you do not trade above this level, you're not really into clear in terms of bullishness yet. Now what I've shared yesterday and a couple of days ago in terms of range deviation is this is step one until you get a change in state of delivery, you are not in step two of bullish delivery yet. So I'm just going to remove this weekly relatively equal low because a couple of weeks ago I made a video predicting that those are going to get taken out price is actually going to dip below. So I was right there and we're going to remove this one. Actually we are still in a range bound environment so we should still trade the range, I. E. Range deviation, upside going to the range, lows range low deviation going back to the upside. But anyways, this is what I'm trying to show you guys here is that currently we are still in bearish order flow. Meaning every time you get a series or like in this case a bearish order block, price is respecting the bearish order block again. Once you break below, you retest the bearish order block and then you break even lower. So this is what I mean when I say that price is respecting bearish order flow. Again you have a bearish order gap. A bearish order block here price trades below, comes up, gets rejected, boom, again down right? Now the fact that you got rejected off of this bearish fair value gap means that you are still overall in the in terms of the daily chart, you're still within bearish order flow. Now that doesn't mean that things cannot change. So here's what we need to look out for. Firstly, we need to get a just a trade above this fair bit gap, sorry, this up close candle right here. So now this becomes the new level where we want to look for a change in state of delivery. Previously it would have been this entire series of down closed candles, but now it's going to be this series of down closed candles. Meaning first things first, we do not want to see price today close underneath these up close candles, right? In 18 hours price can literally do whatever chop left, right, up, down, left, right, inside, up. Like price can literally do anything inside, outside, left, right. As long as it does not close underneath this level right here at 84,250 it means that our bullish thesis is still intact. The fact that we have also on a four hourly chart fill in this feverly gap means that we can reasonably look for some kind of a bullish reaction on the 4 hourly chart first to confirm that hey, we start to shift bullish. But we're not going to ask too much for bitcoin. At the moment all we need is for price not to close below $84,300 today. If it does, then we might need to reevaluate our bullish thesis. And because now this is going to become the bearish order block, the price trades down below and just goes for continuation lower right. So today is quite literally do or die. It could happen tomorrow. But like today is the key day. So overall we're still within a bearish trend. And the conditions that we need to see to break outside of this bearish trend is for these down close candles. Right. Not only does price need to stay above, you know, this level right here, but in step two to confirming bullishness is that you trade above this down close candle here, which validates it as a bullish order block. And even better if you can, from this moment on, price retraces and holds, right? Forms a higher low here before trading higher. Right? So that's the condition that we want to see. And the moment this happens, by the way, the entire crypto markets is just going to go into some kind of an altcoin season. Because range deviation after a three month consolidatory period, right from November until now, we have been consolidating and retracing on Bitcoin, but mostly consolidating because as you can see, all the traders that made money here are range traders, right? If you are, if your system is primarily a range trading system, you would have made a shit ton of money here. Second thing that we need to discuss is the fact that in terms of the higher time frame, again we're looking at a higher time frame chart here. We are in some kind of higher time frame key level. It can literally be another three months where prices chops around here and does nothing. As long as it doesn't break this low or whatever, a price can still be bullish, right? We can still have a bullish thesis. If you take a look at overall market structure in terms of the weekly chart, you can see that these are the swing points, right? You have high, low, high, low, high. So until this low gets broken, essentially, like we haven't formed a higher low here yet. Now if the market starts to go up from here, then yes, this will become the higher low and this will become the new swing point. But at the moment, this is the swing point. And until this level is broken, the overall like bull market slash uptrend is still intact, at least within Bitcoin. So essentially what I'm trying to tell you is that this part right here is just a retracement. If we draw a fib from this low to this high, this is just a retracement into the 50% or the discount of this entire trading range here. So quite literally there is not yet any cause for concern. Price can literally do anything it wants within this entire period here. This is just internal range liquidity to overall, external range liquidity to the upside. Why is this external range liquidity? It's because you were in an uptrend. If you're in a downtrend, then previous swing lows will become your external range Liquidity and then you will look for retracement up into fair value gaps, order blocks or whatever as internal range liquidity to continue to move. In this case this is still looking like at least weekly chart, at least from the monthly chart the higher time frames this is still internal range liquidity to external range liquidity. On the daily chart it looks like a range deviation. Currently we're in near the downside. So like I can tell you what I think it's that, you know, we just need to give, be patient and give this a little bit more time. Today is definitely going to be very telling though. If today closes below, I'm definitely going to make another video on this. So make sure you subscribe, drop a like on this video and stay tuned because at the end of the day all I'm trying to do is give you guys the probabilities, give you guys all the scenarios and the conditions that need to be met for those scenarios to be to come true. Essentially that's my job here on YouTube and then I'm going to tell you what I think, right. Probabilities might be in our favor, but it's definitely a little bit lower compared to yesterday. But yesterday it could have been a 7030. Today might be a 6040 overall. Yeah, again, nothing more too much to say about today other than the fact that we do not want to see that level close below. If we do, then we need to reevaluate our bias. If not, then again this week is still just accumulation. Literally. Like at the moment, neither the previous weekly low or the previous weekly high have been broken. And that also means that we do not have any higher time frame or like just a plus confirmations for us to work off of. Until we get those things, until we get some kind of confirmation, everything that happens in between these two levels is just noise. Now guys, if you want to learn more about this psychology stuff and this systems theory and thinking in terms of probabilities, I will write some emails in the coming days to send it to the email newsletter. And also you guys have a free 7 day email course that you can get for absolutely free that'll teach you about these things right in the first link in the description box below. If you're interested, click that. If you've watched until this point so far in the video, drop a like it truly does make my day. And subscribe if you want to see more. If you appreciate these types of like objective analyses talking about probabilities instead of those bull slash bear crypto youtubers that like oh, you know, buy this, this is going to 5x or whatever. Like, never have I ever said that before. I just really don't understand why these people, like, it does feel really bad because not because like my ego is hurt or whatever, it's that ultimately I believe my message is a positive one. I believe that talking about this mindset stuff, talking about probabilities, talking about scenarios, thinking, talking about if that statements, sharing smart money trading concepts, sharing about range deviation, sharing the virtue of patience in the market and waiting for your setup to come up. And when your setup is present, you execute your steps, you know, systems thinking and all of this stuff. I believe that this is a positive message in the trading industry and it really hurts me because for every like negative comment out there on the video, it really negates, you know, five other positive ones. And people knowing myself and like knowing the psychology of humans when we go to a video and if all we see are negative comments about, oh, you know, this guy sucks, this guy's a noob, like, chances are in this world where we have so much stimulus and attention, we're not going to watch that guy anymore. Because, you know, social proof speaks much louder than the things that the person you know in question can say, right? I can sing as many praises for myself, but unless you guys do it doesn't really matter, does it? This is also the reason why in the recent week and the recent couple weeks I have taken the liberty of documenting my win rate in terms of the analyses so that over time we will have, you know, just credible, you know, undeniable proof that, hey, you know, at least I'm right more often than I'm wrong. And that should be grounds for just to, you know, clear up all of these misunderstandings. But at the end of the day, if you guys could drop a, like, drop a positive comment if you haven't been shaken up by any of this would truly mean the world to me. Have a beautiful rest of your day and I'll see you guys in the next one probably tomorrow just to give you guys an update on the situation and probably going to be a much shorter video because there's no 10 minute psychology rant at the start of the video.
