Bitcoin: What’s Next

What's up, guys? As you can see, I'm recording this a little bit late today, but I still wanted to do this so that you guys are prepared for today as well as prepared for the week and what comes next. So just to kick things off, we were right about the market maker sell model. Overall, we have now returned back to the level of the original consolidation. This is a setup that you guys really want to look for. Whenever you see it. It's usually pretty high probability, as much as we hate to admit it, because that means that bitcoin has now dumped like $5,000 all the way back down to $82,000. So. So with that said, currently we have just taken out previous week's low, and that is a really good sign to start the week off. Usually when you take out a previous week's low, you can start looking for longs to the previous weekly high, assuming that the rest of the other factors line up, which at the moment it's looking like it's not. Let me explain. So if you take a look at the daily chart right now, you can see that if we were to pump from like, let's hypothesize this scenario. We were to pump from this point onwards right now, you will leave behind relatively equal lows, which is something that the market makers hate doing. So to kick things off like TLDR this week, until we reach $78,000, I don't expect to see any long opportunities. In fact, if you do, then it's going to be really short term, you know, kind of intraday, perhaps even sculpts just to take advantage of some, you know, little pumps here and there. Real move is probably going to be towards the downside because if you take a look at these Sunday's daily close as well, like daily close from yesterday, it's really bearish. And usually when you have a really bearish daily close with a drawn liquidity that is really obvious, what you do is you try to look for cells above the open. So this was the open. Currently we have spent the entire day trading above it. So later on during the New York session, perhaps we head down to the draw on liquidity, which is the weekly low of two weeks ago, which I told, like, which I mentioned last week. Like I kept emphasizing the fact that this was the previous, sorry, two weeks high and this is the weekly low. And until either one of these levels gets taken out, you are ultimately just trading within a range and your best opportunities are going to come after either one of these levels gets swept. This case Looks like the low is going to get swept and with the fear and greed index actually at like check out this one. It just so happened to see this post by immortal Shout out to immortal. Great, great trader. Like we are at all time low in terms of fear and greed index, right? Fear is pretty much at all time highs. This is the same levels that we saw during the COVID 19 crash and the 2022 bear market bottom. And all of this while the US just announced a bitcoin reserve as well as price action sweeping some lows. So what does this mean? Well it means that in the long term if you take a look at the macro, if you take a look at anything above the daily chart, we are still incredibly bullish. Again I want to reiterate the fact that if we head out to the weekly chart, if you take a look at market structure, the to high low, let's say high, low, high and basically price can literally do absolutely any, absolutely anything like between these two levels. Doesn't matter if it goes sideways, up, down, left, right, inside out, as long as this low doesn't get taken out, we are not bearish. Right? This is overall just a higher time frame retracement for a move higher continuation because the overall trend is towards the upside. Fact that the fear and greed index lines up with this as well means that it just further solidifies this. Plus the fact that at the moment you are in a weekly fav gap but it doesn't matter if price just chops around between like let's say 95, 90,000 and 80,000 for the next five weeks or whatever. As long as you do not break this fair video gap and invalidate it, you are overall still bullish. Right? We're just waiting and biding our time for when a long opportunity and a very a long setup shows itself and then we're in. So currently we're still waiting for that and I think a potential opportunity can come as early as this week after the that level gets taken out basically. So at the moment you have relatively close here. So highly expect this level to get taken out before any sort of upside move or even if there are upside moves, it's just going to set up for an eventual dump heading into this level. And so this is going to remain the draw on liquidity until proven otherwise. Now taking a look at this week in terms of the best days to trade, it's going to be pretty straightforward today. Today we have no news, right? As you can see Monday, no news. But tomorrow morning we are going to have Some news. And although it's not the best like high impact news that we have, because Wednesday we have cpi, which is a much, much higher, like just let's say impact. In fact, we're actually pretty near higher news for the rest of the week. So Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, we all have news. So expect this to be a pretty volatile week. And so I think the average weekly setup is probably going to look like this. So currently we have opened the week and we've spent the rest of the day trading higher. I think this week is going to open up like this, right? Currently we have traded higher. We're going to come lower first, right, during the first couple days or maybe even three days of the week. Basically the first phase of this week we're going to head lower before we see some kind of sign that hey, this week is going to the rest of the week, right? The second half of the week is going to trade higher. And so it can either potentially look like this heading into the weekly close or could look like basically up, down and just kind of like a dead week. Right. I don't know which is going to be more probable. I would expect this one just because of how much news we have. Just keep in mind that at least this is going to be to draw liquidity first before any sort of upside. Just keep that in mind. So now I'm going to share a potential opportunity that you can jump into heading into New York. As of the time that I'm filming this, it is close to the end of the. Well, it is the end of the London kill zone. And so the opportunities in this case is the fact that you have swept the, the liquidity above here. This is the Asia high, I believe. No, not even Asia high. So you have swept this high and you have filled in this fav gap. And so right now what you want to look for is for price to validate this bearish order block. So you want price, you want to see Price basically trade below this white block right here. They'll validate it as a bearish order block. And then sometimes you're in New York, you can take an opportunity to short it down to the draw liquidity. Now again, today is not a news day, so you might not get it today. Today could just be a like New York session. Today could just be, you know, consolidation, in which case do expect this kind of market condition. So even if everything checks out and you get into the trade and it does nothing, don't be like alarmed because today is not a news day. Chances are the Opportunities are going to come tomorrow. But overall, I do think that you are heading lower until proven otherwise. And at the moment you can see the bearish order flow. All right, this is your bearish order block. Price breaks down, retraces back into it and fails to close above. Currently, it's still heading lower. So. So the second scenario that could be present today is that you just trade higher period into some kind of higher time frame level. So it could be, you know, filling further, filling in this favorite gap, could be filling in, you know, that other favorite gap right there for the movement the next day. Or a third scenario is that the first week, like the first half of this week could just be like pretty choppy before the real move shows itself. At the second half of the week, all of this is possible. I don't know which is going to be more likely. It depends on how the price action plays out. But by day, which is why I'm going to be making updates on bitcoin every single day this week. So do stay tuned. Might not be able to make it on Wednesday, but I'm going to try my best because I will be traveling. But overall the setup is pretty clear. Drawing liquidity. Best trading days, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And right now, just biting our time, short terms of proven otherwise and just playing it day by day. Again, we are on the higher time frame. We are bullish, but like lower time frame. We still need more confirmations to really, you know, confidently like, hey, let's go scope time. But overall, macro term, the like, don't lose hope right now. This is the point when everyone has left the market. This is the point when everyone is sick and tired of the amount of like downside we've seen. And oftentimes if history, you know, proves us right, like history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. This is going to be a really good macro timing to get into the markets, whether it be bitcoin, whether it be altcoins. Definitely keep a close eye over the next couple of weeks because it's going to be a retelling week. And especially as we head into Q2 in April, Q2, Q3 tends to be really top, like just really good performing quarters for bitcoin in general. And if bitcoin starts pumping, then, hey, you know, perhaps we get our old season then. But macro, lose hope. We're very close to the bottom now. I know I've said this time and time again, but macro things take time to play out right when we're looking at the daily chart, when we're looking at the weekly chart, it takes time to play out. Anyways, just a quick update for me today. Wanted to get this out to you even though I have been pretty busy today. Just so you are prepared for whatever comes this week if if you want to see more analyses like this on crypto from the smart money perspective, make sure you subscribe. Drop a like button. Truly does help keep me going. And if you want a free course delivered straight to your email FREE by the way, first link in the description box below. Otherwise I'll see you in the next one. Bye bye.