The Art of Crypto breaks down Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana charts after a rough trading week. He identifies specific entry levels like 66,660 for Bitcoin and warns against impulsive trades, using a poker analogy to stress following a systematic plan over intuition.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. We have had a super rough week so far with like a couple of losses in a couple of days where we didn't trade. Yesterday was one of those no trade days. So let's try to redeem ourselves today. Well, I say that, but, you know, this highly depends on what the market gives us. As traders, we have zero control over what the market does. We can only, you know, choose to act when the market is giving us a setup. And outside of that, like, yeah, it's just, it's just chilling. But, you know, so far the funny thing is that the weekly bias that I painted out at the start of the week has been, you know, just kind of playing out where we had a brief moment above the weekly open and then ever since then we've been dumping straight down. Now the problem with this is that even though the overall kind of like higher time frame prediction was, you know, spot on, the actual intraday execution has been not so because, well, every single New York session where we expect some sort of a dump price has either pumped, in this case just to follow by a dump. So today is looking slightly more promising compared to yesterday just because, like, there is a really strong order block that we are coming into at the moment and we have spent the majority of, you know, both Asia and London coming back into that order block. So it should be pretty interesting for. So like, if I had to guess, they were probably going to get some sort of a setup. Now. Has the. No. Has this week's price action been affected by the US Government shutdown in any way, shape or form? I'm sure it has, although I wouldn't say that is the primary reason or that is the only reason because so far the other markets have been moving pretty cleanly as well. So we're just going to take it as it is and just understand that daily buy so far is towards the downside. Heading down into the one hourly chart, we have this order block, we have this one hourly bearish cisd, which means that in terms of order flow, you are already in a bearish zone. And today what I'm looking for specifically is kind of like a staircase up, but then elevator down type of scenario. For those of you who have followed me on Twitter, I've already mentioned this setup earlier. And by the way, if you guys would like to follow along with any of my live executions, I don't get this behind signals group or whatever. Like it's all in Twitter, publicly documented. So yeah, feel free to follow me there if you want, but otherwise like yeah, we're looking for a bearish setup after tapping into this bearish order block. Now what's interesting for today is that we also had news at 8:30. So the ideal trading window for today is again 7:30 to 9:30. But again like the US government is technically on a shutdown. But what's important to understand here is that just like, like one of the very controversial takes that I, you know, always talk about is that the news itself does not really matter. And case in point, the other day, like just a couple of days ago on Wednesday, that was when the official kind of like shutdown happened. And on paper there was not supposed to be news at 8:30. And yet if you take a look at the chart, these couple of big candles here happened right as the 8:30 candle kind of started. So yeah, you know, there was on paper no news and yet the market still moved as if there was news. And the thing that you want to take away from this is that the news itself does not matter. It's just something that the market makers and the smart money and the big players that use, you know, kind of after the fact to justify it to retail traders where oh yeah, the market dropped because the CPI went up. No, the market dropped because, well it's kind of priced in. If you know how to read price action, you see this happen like you see this kind of setting up even before the news, whatever the news drops later on, it's like no surprise. And case in point, I publicly documented my trades for like a solid year now with like more than 180 trades documented. And so far we've had a pretty decent win rate. And part of how I'm able to achieve that is understanding that a lot of this is just manipulation and it's priced in. If you know how to read the price action, you're going to be good regardless of how the news turns out. So moral of the story, news is just a catalyst for volatility. The result of the news. Whether or not there is news does not really matter. The only thing that matters is that when there is news, people will expect some sort of move to happen at around their news. And it is our job as traders to figure out what that move is likely going to be. And that is our job today. And based on what I'm seeing so far, I definitely think it's kind of like a staircase up, elevator down kind of scenario. Now as for when I am going to dive into the entry, I'm going to let you guys know later of course on Twitter. But for now let's go into the five minute chart just to see how this is playing out. And you can see that the Asia high has already been swept heading into some sort of hourly PE array. This is one of the textbook setups that I always talk about as far as trading goes because you are looking at a potential Asia accumulation, London manipulation followed by a New York distribution at the moment with a daily bias towards the downside heading into just like, yeah, this is as textbook as it gets. So at the moment I'm just going to be looking for some sort of a undeniable CISD towards the downside. Probably like this would be a good place to start at around 66,660. Pretty nice number. Once that happens, then you're looking at a potential strong high here again, it's amd. That's what we're going to be trading today. And obviously like as you approach that news window, you just continue to pump straight up. Kind of like what happened yesterday. Even though we were bearish yesterday, the price just continued pumping straight up. And ultimately I know that the price did end up dumping. But at this very moment here, enough condition like it, there was enough things that were not matching up with our system for us to be like, you know what I know like in my head and based on feeling just probably a valid setup where, you know, you have a inverse, sorry, this is a heads and shoulders pattern and you have a variety of other factors that you know, logically speaking it was going to go to the downside. But a problem with kind of like falling into that temptation of just taking a trade just because you kind of know that it's going a certain way or that you feel that it's going a certain way is that it ultimately deviates away from your system. Right. If you do that enough times. In fact, even if you do that just once, the next time some scenario like this pops up again, you're just going to like your brain is just going to justify it to yourself where, hey, remember that last time where you took a trade based on, you know, yeah, you just knew it was going this way and you took it and you decided to kind of disrespect the system that ended up playing out well. So the next time you get presented with an opportunity like this, yeah, you know, I did it last time, you know, got a good result. Let's try it out again. And we all like, you know, I know that is not a recipe for consistently profitable trading. So that is that it's Kind of like those moments where I'm going to use poker as an analogy here, where you get a really good, you know, kind of like, it's kind of like poker where I'm going to use a poker analogy here to kind of describe this. But it's kind of those moments where you get like a, like a Pocket 4, for example, and you're like, you know, pocket fours. Usually you fold that at least as far as probabilities go and maybe you will get at the moment the car token up. Oh, boom, there's two fours. Yeah, you could have had a full house, you could have had a four of a kind or whatever. But the point is you did not know that at the beginning, right? You followed a game plan because you trust that the game plan is ultimately going to make you profitable. And regardless of what the outcome is. Yesterday would have been a good outcome, but as far as the inputs go, it would not have matched with the system. And that's why it's perfectly fine to just let that go. So today, in the event that you start pumping like and you continue to pump heading into that news window, then yeah, it's not going to be looking particularly good for a trade. Now if you start breaking down prior to that new session, guess what, this might be the first a trade setup, or rather this is not the first one, but it could definitely be the first win that we're going to have this week. So definitely pay attention to this. And obviously if you get, if you manage to get a candle close below 66,000 like period, that is a very major level that is going to just basically confirm that you're going to go into a downtrend. And if that happens, make sure you take advantage of it. But otherwise let's get into eth. And by the way, if you guys would like to learn my full system for absolutely free, I have a link down below where you can get access to a six hour long recording of me just breaking down my system. And it's all for free. If you want, pick it, if not, no worries. Otherwise, Ethereum, so far you have a bullish daily bias. If you recall from yesterday, what I mentioned on Ethereum is that it's looking a little bit more uncertain, at least compared to Bitcoin. And you know, case in point you just kind of like form the range. So at the moment our range low has been swept. So technically you're supposed to be going for the range high. So like as far as Ethereum goes, you are supposed to look for a long today problem is like Bitcoin is having a bearish daily bias. So basically this means that if Bitcoin ends up dumping, Ethereum is going to dump as well. It's just how crypto works. So even though you're supposed to look for a long, I would try to avoid it and I would just try to avoid Ethereum, like straight up. Although setup wise, you are definitely looking at a very similar setup to Bitcoin where you have a bearish CISD on the hourly chart. You're coming now back into some sort of hourly PD array. And if you go into the five minute chart, you are, you know, manipulating above the Asia high. So if you do end up getting this, I would definitely lean towards Ethereum for some sort of a short. And lastly, let's take a look at Solana. Solana, you are looking at a bearish daily bias, which means that you're going to be looking for a short today. As far as the hourly chart goes, you are coming back into some sort of fairly gap as well. Although this is going to be a bit larger. You have a one hourly CISD in terms of the five minute chart. Yep, exactly the same setup. No surprise there. So overall, we're going to be looking for a short on Bitcoin. Now if we don't get that, then, yeah, today might just end up being another no trade day. This week has been rough so far, which is like, it's normal to have like a week or a couple of weeks where, you know, trading becomes really rough. Case in point, December last year was pretty rough where, you know, usually on a given month I might take like 10 to 15 trades. In December, I think there were only like seven or eight opportunities total. And they weren't the best opportunities either because, well, you have two weeks of basically holidays. So like a week or two is nothing in the grand scheme of things. And what's important is that just because we're going through a bit of a losing streak right now doesn't mean that we need to, you know, deviate from the system. It doesn't mean that the system's broken, doesn't mean that we need to switch strategies. It just means that this is a rough period and that is perfectly fine. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you guys on Twitter later and have a great weekend. Cheers.
