Bullish.... But Cautiosly

Good morning guys. So Bitcoin managed to confirm this change in state of delivery yesterday after filling in the 4 hourly favorite gap and is currently heading higher. Now. Yesterday I said that we are currently safe for now. The fact that we did not get a daily close below $84,300 means that chances are the bias yesterday was probably going to head towards the upside. Although it is not until we hit or at least close above 94,200 that we are truly safe in terms of bulls when it comes to bitcoin. So today I'm going to give you guys another update and potentially we might have a play today and why, you know, potentially tomorrow actually. And I'm going to give you the playbook for today because I do think today is going to be continuation to the upside unless something interesting happens which is a market maker sell model on the lower time frame. If you guys want to find out about that, stick around to the end of this video. But besides that. But before I get into the video, guys, I just want to shout out all of the really positive comments from yesterday. I truly, truly appreciate you guys taking some time out of your day to put in those kind words and it really does keep me going and that's why I'm making daily videos right now. Just keeping you guys posted on the situation. Just because right now there's a lot of uncertainty. I do think that the bottom is very close to being in at least on the higher time frame. But day by day we still need to play it cautiously and, and I'm going to try to provide the most unbiased opinions and just give you guys the scenarios that could happen and the exact plan going into each of these scenarios. So without any further ado with the Thanksgiving, it's time to get into the video. So currently on the one hourly time frame or even on the four hour, you might see it, but it's going to be way more clear in terms of the one hour. And that's the fact that we currently have a market maker sell model potentially. Right? This is of course not going to be confirmed until you actually break below the consolidation which will confirm the market maker sell model. Until then it's proven though just taking a look at the past couple of days daily bias, I do think that the bias today is probably going to head to the upside. So what is this market maker sub model? Essentially this is a three impulse push. So I want you guys to. In fact it's going to be way more clear if I just show you the module from the AOC Bootcamp, which by the way, if you guys are interested in getting funded within 30 days, feel free to send the word Bootcamp to email AOC at the Art of Crypto. But one of the modules is the market maker so model. So just take a look here. So essentially you have the original consolidation, you have accumulation and then you know, a third leg up or in this case the second leg up into some kind of higher time frame liquidity or point of interest. And currently you have the original consolidation first leg up. This is technically the second leg up into higher time frame. Just some kind of, you know, fairly gap. Although in this case if we take a look at the daily chart and this is the reason why we want to start off from the higher time frame first before going on to the lower time frame is because like if you look at the lower time frame and you have this bias going into, you know, the chart, you're going to be like, oh, you know, this is actually really biased when in reality, if you take a look on the daily chart yesterday you had a really bullish candle close with a really obvious drawing liquidity, right now you're so close to this drawing liquidity on the daily chart that I think you take it out before any kind of further downside. The fact that tomorrow as well you have non farm payroll, for those of you who don't know what that is, it's one of the most volatile news events that could possibly happen. In fact, one of the reasons why price action has been so good this entire week is because we've had red folder news on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, today, Thursday as well as tomorrow Friday, capping it off with non payroll, which is arguably the, the king of all like news events. Because this thing just really gives you clean price action. So with that said higher time frame, the fact that you have a bullish candle close yesterday means that the playbook today is probably going to look to be to look for areas where you can jump into the trend because the fact that yesterday was a bullish kind of close means today bias is towards the upside. Where is it going to reach for? Well here's the gameplay. Where is it going to reach for? Well, 94200 I think now in fact you could even go higher because in terms of the, you know, if you take a look at the candle wicks, it's actually all the way at $95,000. Now there is a potential you can get a pit stop at 9 3650. But there let me paint the game plan for today first of all, you're currently inside a bearish favorite gap on the one hourly chart. Now this is not to be worried about though, because yesterday one of the things that we tried to look for is either price confirms the change in state of delivery, or we wanted to see was Price not breaking this low right here at 82,000 and ideally forming a new high. Right. So price indeed took out the new high, which now validates this as a change in order flow, meaning at least on lower time frames, the order flow has already changed, which means now you can start using bullish order blocks in this case to as a retracement zone. As you can see here, Price actually retraces back into the bullish order block during the New York morning session and continues going to the upside. Again, the fact that you have your bullish order flow means that right now, until proven otherwise, you're going to look for bullish order blocks or bullish favorite gaps to take advantage of a move to the upside. In this case, this is our most recent order block, at least on the one hourly time frame. And the reason why we're using the one hourly time frame is because like, one of the best time frame copies that you can possibly have is, or at least this is through experience and thorough testing and also working with thousands of students at this point is going from the daily chart chart down to the 1 hourly chart to look for, going from the daily chart to identify your higher time frame bias as well as targets for the day and then coming onto the one hourly time frame to identify areas of interest. In this case, we are Simply using the 1 hour to identify areas where we might start getting interested in a trade that is in the direction of the higher time frame bias. So in this case, this is the order block number one. And this order block also lines up with this bigger order block over here. And so I think if you retrace back into this area during the London Open, which will as of the time of recording, it's currently 11:30pm during New York, New York, sorry, the London Open is going to be at 2am that's the kill zone at least. So 2am, 3am to 4am so within those couple of hours, if you do retrace into this order block right here and if you start showing a strong bullish reaction on the five minute chart, it's going to be absolutely fantastic to get into Bitcoin. But otherwise, the second scenario that could happen is that London is actually going to be consolidatory. Again. What I'm trying to do here is I want to paint the scenarios for you guys. I don't want to be just like, okay, like guys, this is going to happen. If it doesn't happen, like scenario number two would be a retracement actually back into this order block right here. But then not having enough volatility during the London session where we might pick up steam during the New York session. So that is also a possibility. So if that happens, I think the daily bias is still towards the upside at least until proven otherwise. And, and the third scenario is that we just shoot upwards from here on out, in which case just start. Like for example, if you start shooting upwards right now, look for, for example, let's say that this becomes the bullish order block. Then just look for price to retrace into bullish order block and you can trade the continuation all the way up until the target which is going to be this basically TP1 for the day. 93,650 at least on the Binance perpetual contract futures. So that is currently the game plan on Bitcoin. And let's let me break down for you guys, what would invalidate a bullish scenario again, the fact that currently we are starting to form a market maker sell model which is not confirmed yet because we haven't had the confirmations yet. The market maker sell model in this case would be validated if this bullish block right here traded below. Right. If you get a close below, you're going to look for this to be resistance heading downwards back to the original consolidation. So that's going to confirm your market maker submodel. So again today, just based off of the daily candle close from yesterday, we do think that the bias is towards the upside, but we also understand that there is a risk that this is a market maker subodle. So it's really important that I paint down multiple scenarios and for you guys to also look for this during the London session, during the New York session. Because one of the questions I always get asked very often is like, hey, you know, you always say that bullish order blocks or like, you know, favorite gaps are, you know, high probability, you know, entry models. And they are, don't get me wrong, the reason why they don't work as well as you may have experienced could be that you're looking for them during the wrong timings. See an order block that forms or an order block that gets filled during the London session or the New York session is going to be way higher probability than an order block that gets filled outside of any session, right? Sessions have a big role to play with this because these are the times when the market makers are awake, they are in the office, the algorithms are firing full force. You have traders on the floor calling things out. That's when you have news happening. So there's a lot more volatility and a lot more certainty when you're trading within a session. So if there's one tip that I can give you that will improve your trading pretty much overnight. So whatever trades you take and whatever things you're looking for, try to find them within the sessions. In terms of crypto, that's the Asian kill zone, that's the London kill zone, and that's the New York kill zone. Just to give you. So the Asian kill zone is going to be at 8pm to 12am New York. The London kill zone starts at 2am New York till 5am New York and the New York morning kill zone starts from 7am to 10am for forex pairs and around 8am to 11:30am for your indices. So that's going to be the Nasdaq. I could be mistaken here being that the indices kill zone starts at 8:30 till 11. Do fact check me on this, but doesn't change the fact, right that 8am window tends to be a time when a lot of news tends to come out. For example, CPI tends to come out at 8:30am on, you know, most occasions. And so it makes sense that you want to be in the markets kind of half an hour before CPI prints anyways. That is indices probably not as irrelevant to crypto. So for crypto just utilize 7 to 10. And for those of you who want to, you know, narrow this down even more, you have the London close kill zone. I wouldn't say that that is a kill zone, but if you don't want to trade the London close and if you know what you're doing, then 10am to 12pm is also a technically a kill zone, but like not officially. So those are the times where you want to look for these movements to happen. And yep, again scenario one is that Price retraces into the order block during London slash New York, which is one of the kill zones. And then for Price to continue towards the daily bias. Again the reason we identified this daily bias from the candle close yesterday, which is really bullish and the fact that we have a draw in liquidity and the fact that we have filled in the bullish favorite gap on a higher time frame and Price showing bullish order flow is all of this kind of lines up to a bullish scenario. But again we are cautiously bullish because we have a market potential market maker sell model at play here and we could just straight up have a reversal after hitting 95k. Now which scenario do I think is more likely? I don't know. It all depends on like I can predict all I want but the best thing to do as a trader is actually to wait for the market to give you confirmations and then just react accordingly. So a patient circle then. And again scenario number one is that retracement and a continuation during London or New York towards the upside. Scenario number two is that you just continue pumping from this point onwards and then you the game plan here would be to use the order blocks that form on a one hourly chart to trade, you know, just the momentum. Third scenario would be if you actually start just retracing into here and you don't really get any action today. Right. Today could just be a consolidated day because tomorrow is non farm payrolls. So you could just have the bulk of the volatility coming in tomorrow and today might be just a setup day. And the fourth one is that you break through the order block in this case bearish case, at which point you want to start looking for bearish scenarios. Yeah, hopefully that doesn't happen. But yeah, I'm going to make an update for sure tomorrow. So if you guys want to follow along these market updates and analyses done from the smart money perspective, subscribe to the channel Drop a like and if you want a free training course, deliver it straight to your email teaching you exactly what I know for free. By the way, first link in the link in the description box below. Otherwise thank you guys so much for the positive comments. I read every single one of them and I will reply to every single one of you. It truly, truly means a lot to me that there's a support there. It truly keeps me going. So thank you guys and I will see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.