FOMC will stop a LOT of people out today on bitcoin (do this instead)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. What a move from yesterday. Like, we ended up getting the overall daily bias correct in the sense that, you know, we should be expecting some sort of a downside move. Unfortunately, the warning that I gave you guys about the fact that, hey, 9:30 AM, like post-9:30 AM, you're going to see some sort of a reversal movement exactly came true. Like, 11 AM is when you kind of swept the high and eventually, yep, all the way down you go. But yesterday was a non-Newsday, which means that the probability of the day itself was going to be lower. Hopefully today is going to be different in the sense where we are going to get a solid A+ setup. We're going to have economic news later, namely FOMC, so chances are today we're going to get a decent day. I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking for in terms of today. Before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making for the last year and a half or so, and currently I am at about a 75% win rate. So chances are I tend to be right a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. Now if that gives you a reason to listen to me, then let's get properly right into this video. So just to kick things off, we are looking at a bearish daily bias, which means we are going to be looking for shorts today. Now, the only hiccup with this plan is the fact that we already have quite a decent move happening at the Asia session and London session, which leads me on to something that I briefly touched on yesterday as well as Monday. But today, like, we are starting to see more and more that the Asia session and the London session has been, you know, a lot better for trading Bitcoin in general, where the majority of the volatility actually comes before the New York session. And for example, yesterday, low of the day was at London, 2 AM. That's when you get the low of the day. Sweep out the Asia lows and then all the way to New York, he just kind of pumped and straight to take out kind of like liquidity targets. Now, if you were to ask like, would we have looked for longs yesterday? I probably wouldn't. But just in general today as well, the moment the Asia session begins, it's like boom, price starts dumping. Granted, London has been pretty silent so far, which is perfectly normal for a day where you have FOMC at 2 PM. Just to give you an idea about what I mean by this, I really want you to pay attention to this because this happens once a month and it is a recurring pattern that happens time and time again, which is the fact that FOMC is basically the only piece of news for US Red folder where it's it's dropping like past the morning hours. This is dropping at two p.m. And once a month you're going to get FOMC and it's going to drop at two p.m., which means your typical session profiles where usually we have Asia being accumulation and then London you will look for the manipulation and then New York morning you will look for some sort of distribution that goes completely out the window because the news window makes it so that oftentimes what you will see is that Asia still ends up being accumulation but London instead of manipulating also accumulates right? And then you get the manipulation during the New York morning and then you get distribution. Late morning heading into the afternoon, and the reason why this happens is you got to understand every major move in the market happens because of some sort of reason. There is usually a catalyst to the biggest moves in the market, and oftentimes the one of the absolute best catalysts for this purpose is high impact red folder news. The news, and usually these red folder high impact news tends to come in the New York morning, which means that everything can just kind of set up. All right, London traders they wake up and they're like, "Oh, we're about to get news in a few hours. Let's maybe start positioning ourselves in before the news," and then New York traders would obviously. Wake up and immediately get hit with the news. So already there is, you know, reason for the markets to move. Now on a day where you have late news at 2 PM, what happens is that this gets delayed. London traders are going to wake up and they're going to be like, whoa, still a really long way away. Now I know something big is probably going to happen or likely to happen sometime later during the day, but that time is not now. So let's just chill and let's just wait. And so oftentimes you'll see London, like if there is one day you don't ideally want to trade London, especially on Bitcoin, it's going to be FOMC days. And there is one day where you want to be extra cautious during the New York morning session instead of treating it normally. Like every other New York morning session, it's going to also be FOMC day. And this is just a bit of alpha that I've been sharing in the second channel where, by the way, like I have a second channel where I'm posting a lot of the really valuable segments that I'm discussing throughout my coaching calls as well as live trading calls with my students. But it's just not done in a format that would make sense to post on this main channel. And so I'm posting on the second channel. Feel free to head over and check it out. There's a lot of tactical trading alpha over there. But otherwise, just to get back to the video for today, now that we understand that volatility is a little bit lower, let's get into the overall direction that we're going to look for in terms of Bitcoin. If you recall, the weekly bias is still bullish. Well, obviously, because you know for the weekly bias to change, you need to wait until next week. So for the most part, we're still looking for some sort of weekly expansion towards the upside. And I did mention already throughout the last couple of days that any time price dips below the weekly open gives you an opportunity to potentially buy low to sell high when you get that true weekly expansion. This is what happened last week where this was the weekly open. Any time price dipped below, in fact, if you take a look at last week, spent. an entire 1, 2, 3 days basically underneath the weekly open before we finally got that weekly expansion on Thursday and Friday. Same thing here, right? Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday has been dipping so far, but it's all within the plan, right? So now we just have to look for evidence that potentially, right, that potentially that we're going to get a reversal. So far though, if we go into the lower time frames, we're not going to see that, primarily because the hourly order flow right now is incredibly bearish. Not only that, but we just recently got a couple of major CSDs towards the downside. So even if we were looking for longs, it's probably not going to be today. But just keep in mind that there is a chance later on during FOMC that we may see a reversal. Now, is that something that we should trade with a reasonable amount of probability? I don't think so. The reason why I brought up this trend thing and the reason why I brought up order flow is you gotta remember that our trading system is primarily a trend trading system, which means it's our job, you piloting the system, to identify what is the trend. If the trend is bearish, we look to sell low and then buy back lower. On the flip side of things, if the trend is bullish, we're looking to buy high and then sell higher. It is the nature of the system. This is when the system thrives. It's when the market is in some sort of trend. At the moment, the market seems to be expanding towards the downside, and I know that some people would be able to make an argument that, oh yeah, you just swept out the range low, whatever, you're going to go for a reversal. I know. Now here's the interesting part about what makes trading particularly difficult for a lot of people. You want to be able to separate your kind of like opinions and your analysis from the actual mechanism of your system. So for example, my system dictates that I want to sell low, like basically just jump into existing trends instead of trying to catch reversal points. That's not the main objective of my system. So Now that I understand the objective, well, I'm just going to follow along the objective. So now that I understand how my system works, I'm just going to follow the rules regardless of how I might feel about it. And it just so happens that, you know, not only is the order flow super bearish, you've got a bunch of relatively equal lows over here as well, which means these are all prime liquidity targets that you can easily sweep out today. You also got to remember what I just shared with you earlier about the weekly bias and everything is like, it's my opinion. I do still think that it could happen sometime later this week. I still feel compelled to share that with you. But in terms of the actual trade for today, we're going to just follow along the, you know, the rules of the system, which step one, we're going to start off on the daily chart. We're going to see that, okay, the daily bias is bearish. So we are going to be looking for shorts today. Next up, we go into the 1-hourly order flow. Now we go into step 2, right? Step 2 is once you go into the 1-hourly, you want to look for order flow confirmation. If your daily bias is pointing towards the downside, you want the hourly order flow to also be already bearish. So at the moment, it's already bearish, right? We have a CIC there. We have a CIC there. We have a CIC there. Like it's undeniable at this point that the 1-hourly chart is bearish. On the 1-hourly chart, we look for an area of interest. List where price could return back into, and then we can start looking for a trade. And usually we look for PD arrays, which includes fair value gaps and order blocks. So this right here is a fair value gap that I expect price to tap into sometime during the New York session. But for now, in terms of step 3, price can either retrace into this fair value gap right here and then continue towards the downside, or by the time you guys watch this video, if you already get a candle close $83,800 on the 1-hourly chart, this is going to mark it as a new bearish order block. So price can potentially retrace back into here and head towards the downside. Then we move into step 4, which is go down into the 5-minute chart to look for confirmation. In terms of the 5-minute chart, we can see that London so far has been, you know, giving me a bit of a heads and shoulders pattern, right? But we're not going to get into that for now because, you know, this video is meant to come out sometime during the New York morning. So essentially, 2 ways that this is going to play out. So just to go back to what I was talking about, step 4 or step 5, I don't remember. Step 4 is to look for confirmation, right? What kind of confirmation? Well, you need 2 things. One is you need price action confirmation. Second thing, you need timing confirmation. So in terms of timing, you want to ideally be trading within some sort of a kill zone. Now the kill zones, I'm going to list it on the screen right here. Basically London is 2 AM to 5 AM New York. New York morning is 7 AM to 10 AM. You have your Asia, which is 8 PM to 12 AM. And as long as you are trading within, or like just pop open a kill zone indicator, and as long as you're trading within one of these boxes right here, then you're going to be good. So the next major kill zone in this instance is going to be the New York morning kill zone. Once you get into the New York morning kill zone, all right, has price come into, you know, any one of your areas of interest? If yes, great. Then you have all the confirmations that you need. in order to take a trade. Now, the last confirmation, which is step 5, is going to be order flow confirmation, right, or price action confirmation. Once you're in the right timing, once you go into the right 1-hourly key level, you're going to look for order flow confirmation on the 5-minute chart as well. I just want you to imagine this for a moment. Let's say this is the fair value gap that we're looking at. As price is moving towards that fair value gap over here, you're going to be putting in bullish order flow, right? Because it's a trend trading system, you don't want to just be selling, right, placing a sell order over here when the market is printing bullish order flow. That's not how you want to approach this. Ideally, when you get into this level and when timing matches, you want to look look for some sort of indication that, hey, you get a change in state of delivery and order flow has changed and price is showing bearishness. Because at the end of the day, a trade idea does not mean a trade setup. Mapping this entire idea out is, at the end of the day, just an idea. For this to become a valid trade setup where we actually put real money behind the trade, we need evidence from the market that it agrees with our thesis, okay? It agrees with our idea about what can happen. And if we get this, then bang, you're going to place an entry here. We're going to place a stop loss above. That, by the way, is like a 5-minute rundown of my entire system. But if you'd like to learn all of the secret sauce and all of the mechanisms behind it, if you want to get access to the checklists, the frameworks, the SOPs, and understand everything that makes this system click and produces— like, for example, we have had 45 students work seriously with us at this point, and 31 of them are currently funded for more than $100,000. That is a 70% success rate of students achieving the promised result that we have on the front page of our program. That's a success rate that's completely unheard of in the industry. And there are 2 reasons why we're able to do this. One, we care deeply about student success. Like, when you come in, you're not going to be left alone. We're going to be holding your hand through every step of the process. We are going to be working directly with you every step of the way. But secondly, the program works. This is a system that works. If you've been watching my videos for a while now, you know for a fact that I'm consistently calling the right moves in the market. And if you would also like this pinpoint level of accuracy when it comes to not only understanding price action, but being able to also understand when these things might happen and understanding when's a good time to trade, when it's not a good time to trade, telling you the paid programs is where it's at. As much alpha as I try to share on my YouTube videos, like, you're going to get way more inside the paid programs. That's just the nature of it. But anyways, with that out of the way, I'm going to leave you with one very important thing. FOMC, which means that there is also a chance that New York morning could just be very, very choppy instead of having super clean moves. So if at all possible, I would advise you to start taking your trades basically after like 12 PM or like after 1 PM, because the news window, right, assuming the news drops at 2 PM— well, actually we don't have to assume, the news is going to drop at 2 PM— ideal trading window is actually the hour before news to the hour after news. So basically from 1 PM to 3 PM New York, that is going to be the ideal trading window for today. If you can take your trades within this time, you're going to get way more success and you're going to have a much lower probability of actually getting wicked out and stopped out before price hits your TP, such as what you've seen consistently for the last month in regards to Bitcoin. But in the event that you do still want to trade in the New York morning, I will keep you guys updated on the trades that I do take on Twitter. Like, I'm going to be having a live trading call later with my students anyways. So if I do get into anything, I will keep you guys updated. Just feel free to follow me there. But in the meantime, trade safe and I'll see you guys later or tomorrow. Ciao ciao.