How I Predict The Daily Bias with 80% Accuracy
The Art of Crypto walks through 20-30 daily Bitcoin charts to show his method for predicting daily market bias with a 75-80% win rate. He starts with a baseline rule: bullish closes suggest long bias, bearish closes suggest short bias. Then adds layers using price-distribution arrays, fair-value gaps, order blocks, and liquidity zones to confirm or overturn that initial call.
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Over the last year and a half, I have publicly documented the success rate of all of the public Bitcoin calls that I make right here on YouTube every single weekday. And currently my win rate is sitting at around 75%. Now, one of the core reasons why I'm able to achieve such a high win rate is that I'm consistently able to accurately predict what direction I should be trading in for every single trading day. And there's a very simple method that I use to achieve this. Now, to break it down simply for you, it is literally previous day closes bullish, I'm looking for longs. Previous day closes bearish, I'm looking for shorts. Now that is just step one though, because there is a second layer that I add to it by applying stuff like PD arrays, order flow, and even liquidity. And literally just now I recorded a 20-minute demo video of how I'm applying all of these concepts to my understanding of daily bias so that I can consistently achieve a 75 to 80% accuracy rate when it comes to correctly predicting The direction I should be trading in. And I have decided to post that raw recording right here on YouTube. And you're going to see firsthand, I'm going to go through like the 20 or 30 different trading days. I'm going to walk through my entire thought process on how I'm thinking about what the daily bias is going to be. Once you finish this video, chances are you're also going to be able to accurately determine exactly, accurately which direction you should be trading in for the day. And the people looking at you from the outside are going to be absolutely dumbfounded because, man, how is this guy magically able to predict exactly which direction price is going to go to today. So yeah, enjoy the video. So I'm just here recording a demo of how to do, you know, how to pair fair value gaps and order blocks and liquidity concepts and whatever to better increase your accuracy when it comes to doing the daily bias kind of drill. Now to kick things off, we already know that the fundamentals of the daily bias is simply if previous candle closes bullish, we anticipate bullish, or at the very least we anticipate the previous daily high getting taken out. Now if the previous daily candle closes bearish, then we anticipate the previous daily low getting taken out. That's the fundamentals that's going to get you to like a 60 to 70% clip or accuracy when it comes to correctly identifying the daily bias. Now there are a few things you can add to this, of course. For example, as price— like for example, right now I see that there is a fair value gap over here. If price were to come into here, I may reasonably anticipate that price is going to head towards the downside. Some other things that we can keep into or take into account is the overall order flow and the overall market structure. So far Seems like things are pretty bullish so far. And I may potentially predict that, okay, once this liquidity has been taken out, even though this day right here closed bearish, but because it already took out some key liquidity potentially coming back into this order block or whatnot in an overall uptrend, I can reasonably anticipate that the next candle is going to actually move towards the upside and I should look for bullish trades on this day rather than bearish trades and just taking it literally, if that makes sense. So I'm just going to do a quick demo here. I'm going to run through a few days of just doing this daily bias thing so that you can understand How and why to, well, to do this. And speaking about why you want to do this, it's important to understand that the fundamentals of the daily bias, what you've learned in just using the previous daily low or the previous daily high, is going to get you, you know, to 60 or 70% of the way there. What you do here in step 2, once you master this, this is going to get you to consistently being able to achieve like a 75% or even above accuracy. I don't want to promise too much, but at the very least, you'll be able to maintain 70%. That's the rate that I've been able to maintain over the last year and a half, 2 years straight of live trading. And a lot of our students have managed to get to that 70% mark as well. So that is going to be the benchmark. And to get there, you're going to need a couple of things more compared to just using the previous daily close, if that makes sense. So now, yeah, let's, uh, let's get into it. So kicking things off on the daily chart, uh, we can see that the previous daily candle is closing lower. Now, the way— one of the things that I'm going to be taking into account at this point is, as previously mentioned, the fact that we have a bearish fair value gap over here. And if we manage to fill this, we are looking for a bearish daily candle. And so far I'm still going to just be looking towards the downside. But in the event that price starts to print bullish, I'm expecting price to come back into here. And I can reasonably anticipate that— I can't predict the future, but I can reasonably anticipate that price is potentially going to go lower. But for now, we're going to be looking for shorts. We're going to be looking for bearish daily bias for this previous daily low to get taken out. And let's see how this goes. All right. So previous daily low has been taken out. So far we are still incredibly bearish, right? This is a very bearish candle. So for now, not really implementing this yet. For now, I'm just still looking for the previous daily low to get taken out. And over here is an example of liquidity, right? This is a liquidity point right here that in the event price continues to print bullish— sorry, price continues to print bearish, this could be the target that price goes for. So for example, if I print another bearish candle right here, and then like next day I can reasonably anticipate the price is going to reach towards this point purely based on my understanding of liquidity. But for now, let's just again keep it simple. We're targeting for the previous daily low, and let's see. Okay, previous daily low has been taken out. Right now you have a bullish candle. Now the moment this happens, you can immediately bring your eyes towards this fair value gap right here, because if you have a bullish candle with bullish daily bias, price always moves towards some sort of a target whenever it's making any sort of moves in the market. Well, understanding that and seeing that you have a fair value gap up here where potentially price could come into before getting rejected. Means that the next day, not only do I understand that the overall daily bias means that I should be looking for a long, but I can even have, based on the daily chart, a reasonable target. So in the event that I go into a long and price hits this fair value gap, I can reasonably anticipate that, okay, I'm going to take my profit here. Not only that, but because when we come into this fair value gap, if we end up closing bullish on this day, the next day I may not be so bullish because I understand that, okay, you just hit a daily fair value gap. So This is one of those rare days where I might just ignore the daily bias and look for shorts instead for this very reason. So let's just see how it plays out. For now, again, bullish and we're anticipating the fair value gap to get filled. All right, fair value gap has been filled, but again, bullish daily candle here. Although even though we have a strictly speaking bullish daily bias, if I was trading this day, I would actually be looking for shorts on the lower timeframe for the reason that I've already explained, right? So like for example, what you've learned in step 1, Where we just use the previous daily close as the guide means that okay, we're going to be looking for longs today. But applying this deeper level of taking into account PD arrays and liquidity and the overall market structure and order flow, we can now make a prediction. And obviously right now I'm just on the daily chart. And when you are actually live trading this properly, you will have access to the one hourly and the five minute to see how the price action kind of plays out. Like for example, by the time you get to the New York session, prices already kind of tapped in. London has already swept the Asia high and it's already given you a CSD. And then New York comes in and it's just breaking. Lower. Like, that's a lot more information that you have to play with. But just since this is a drill, like, this is me demonstrating how to get a better result or more accurate result when it comes to the daily bias, we're just going to keep it simple, right? We're going to be anticipating that price is going to go lower without the luxury of having the lower timeframe to show us exactly what's going to happen. But let's see how it plays out. And boom, right? Instead of hitting the previous daily high, you actually take out the previous daily low. And right now you close bearish. And at this point right here, I'm gonna have way more confidence in this bearish candle close, even though so far, like, even if we take a look at the overall trend or whatever, the price has still been pretty bullish. But the fact that we have just closed, or rather failed to close above this fair value gap, right? We filled in this fair value gap and then broke lower, gives me a lot more confidence on this very next day that yeah, the price is like, this is one of those A+ days right here where we have full confluence. Not only is the daily bias bearish, but we also have the fact that price just filled in a key level on the daily chart and got rejected. So on this very next day here, I can be confident in like, yeah, I'm 100% looking for a short. And that's one of those rare moments where it doesn't play out, right? Which is fine. Again, this is going to be a very high percentage kind of strategy, but just purely taking it from the daily chart does not signify anything. You just want to get to a point where purely looking at the daily chart, you can get 7 out of 10 times where you are correct in your read. So, so far, I think— I'm not sure where we started. I think we started here. That's 1 correct, 2 correct. 3 correct. No, no, sorry, 1 correct, 2 correct. Yeah, 3 correct, 4 correct, and like basically 4 out of 5 so far, right? But right now we're in a bullish daily bias. Uh, this tells me that maybe price just wants to go and fill in the fair value gap another time, or maybe start reaching up. Although on this day right here, strictly speaking, I would just probably trade the daily bias. So daily bias pointing towards the upside. I can see that this may be the draw on liquidity. Either way, we're in this fair value gap, so It doesn't mean that this is just going to— like, we cannot at this point infer that price is just going to break through this fair value gap. But I wouldn't see how it would be unreasonable to kind of fill in the fair value gap a second time before going down. Again, we're not getting married to any concepts right here. Also below, we've now formed relatively equal lows, although irrelevant so far to consider. Let's just see how the next day plays out. We're going to keep it simple. We're going to target the previous, well, the couple of previous daily highs since we have a bullish daily bias. And so that's going to be 4 out of 6. All right, right now this reaction is the reaction that I'm looking for from the fair value gap. And just understand that the fact that you are playing this out on the daily chart is that sometimes it's going to take a couple of days to completely accumulate or distribute the orders around these PD arrays before price actually makes a convincing move. But now this— now that this has happened right here, like, I have way more confidence. So next day we're just going to be looking for shorts, and potentially eventually if we come back into this Order block right here. I would anticipate that the next day's candle is going to close something like this, right? So let's see how it plays out. So next day we filled it in. Now in fact, I'm gonna even gonna go into the lower time frame to see how the price action played out here. And yeah, if you take a look here, remember what I said earlier, we anticipate the price action to play out like this. And yeah, 7 AM you came up, false high of the day, and down you go. So coming back into the daily chart, so yeah, previous daily low has been taken and we filled this in first before we got the short move. So this is an example of how to use the daily bias and we kind of use the information On the daily chart, and the reason why I use that level is because this is now a bearish order block right here. So moving on, just because we have a bullish close again, seeing how the fair value gap kind of got filled right now, we have this new fair value gap over here. So in the event, right, the way we play out the next day is that before the New York session rolls around, we have filled in this fair value gap. We kind of see some signs that it's breaking down. Then I'm definitely going to look for a short. But again, since this is like a purely daily bias kind of drill, like strictly speaking, if you only understood the first part of the equation, then. And you would use these daily flows and just look for longs, which I would say is valid, right? We're anticipating that and didn't quite happen. But yeah, this is another example. So what are we now at? 5 out of 8? Yeah, 5 out of 8. So bearish again. And take a look, liquidity targets has been hit. Right now I zoom out and I look for another liquidity target since that's already been hit. Super bearish. So I'm looking, anticipating previous daily low to get taken out. So previous daily lows got taken out. Again, you get a bullish close right here, which if you were trading just purely step 1, you would actually be looking for longs here. But yeah, on this day, I think it would make sense to look for a long. Obviously, this is again just a daily chart, which means I'm not applying the lower timeframe stuff. And depending on how the lower timeframe stuff plays out, right, the way that we would trade that would be completely different. But right now we're just purely focusing on the daily bias because it closed bullish. We can reasonably anticipate the price is going to go for the previous daily high, although we would be cautious in expecting so because so far Let's break it lower. Price is clearly going for some sort of bearish liquidity over there. But right now we have a fair value gap over here, and it would make sense if we tapped into here first before we got that expansion lower. So that is an example of getting it wrong. So this is now, uh, what is this, 5 out of 9? Yeah, 5 out of 9 bearish. So next day we're definitely looking for shorts. And right now, any of the short candles that we print, notice how I'm a lot more confident, right? I'm a lot more certain of these short moves because I have paired my understanding of liquidity and PD arrays. We filled in this PD array, we took out this liquidity. Right now the market is making a move for this liquidity. So I can be a lot more confident in the short moves. And you can notice the hesitation that I have in my voice when I say, like, when I am trying to just say, okay, because we closed bullish, we are looking for longs. Notice the hesitation in my voice, right? Clearly I don't really believe that. And obviously I would not necessarily trade that or take that trade in the lower timeframes in a live trading environment because I would have more information. But purely from the daily chart, this is how applying you this this understanding gives you a much better read on the daily chart and make sure that you are able to catch the more meaningful moves and stay out of potentially false moves. Hey, real quick, if you're enjoying this video so far, chances are you are actively trying to make trading work. And if you feel like you could benefit from one-on-one guidance from me and the team at AOC to help get you from where you are right now to getting consistent and actually making money from trading. Without it feeling like you're just getting lucky or without it feeling like guesswork, then click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll let you be with the rest of the video. Enjoy. Right now, close bearish in an overall downtrend. The fact that we're coming for a liquidity point, I can be very confident that next day is going to close lower. So that's like, what, 6 out of 10? And then yeah, again, the liquidity point hasn't got taken yet and you're still bearish. So again, we are looking for liquidity to get taken out. And once that happens, once you have this bullish candle close right here, and by the way, I think it's like 7 of 11. We have a bullish candle close right here after taking out a liquidity point, right? Not only that, but I think we do have a CSD on the daily chart as well. So now at this point, the difference between this up candle— like next day I'm going to be a lot more confident that it's going to be a bullish print. The reason why this is the case is A, key level got taken out, B, you have a CSD that got confirmed. Comparing that to both of these candles, right, to both of these up close candles right here, like 3 of them actually, where the first one I was like, yeah, you know, you printed bullish but you're coming into a bearish fair value gap right here, I'm not super certain about that. This one As well, you are clearly you just broke down, and not in fact this was correct. Like we ended up playing this correctly because like we literally anticipated price to do this, right? So that ended up being correct. But this one, right, not very confident because liquidity point has been taken out. Sure, but clearly you're going for the next one. So now that this key liquidity point has been taken out, and I don't really see any more key liquidity points that are nearby, and clearly price is showing some sort of reaction. That it wants to go back to the upside. Next day, we're going to be looking for a long. Kaboom! We got a previous daily high. And right now, this candle is printing bearish. But like, I think the liquidity has already been taken out. There's not too much more of a reason for the market to continue going aggressively lower. Although, and so this is one of those days where I would be a little bit torn in terms of the daily bias. I can see now that price could potentially go for this internal range liquidity over here before going down. So I'm going to go off on a whim and say that based on my understanding of liquidity and PD arrays, I might say like, I would technically be looking for a long even though we are printing a bearish signal. Could be wrong, but this is just showing you an example of how you would apply this knowledge. Now this ended up being correct, so I think I'm like, what, 8 out of 12 or 9 out of 13 or something? I'm not super sure. But again, now a bullish candle closed, but you're now coming back into a bearish DDA array. So at this point you might be a little bit cautious on this day where just because the daily bias is printing bullish doesn't mean you immediately just start looking for longs straight away. You take into consideration that right now you're in a bearish fair value gap here, and there is a chance that you could actually, you know, just go lower. I mean, this is one of those days if I was live trading, I would be very cautious slash I might not even trade it. The way that I like to approach these days is to simply wait for the reaction from this level. For example, if I'm anticipating bearishness from this level, then I would actually just like stay out of this chart completely until I get a bearish candle close. Whereas the next day I can just jump in on a much more confirmed kind of move rather than try to predict if price is actually going to get rejected from here or not. Just because I am trying to make a read on the daily bias does not mean that I'm going to be trading this day. In fact, this is one of those days that I would probably try to stay out of. But again, purely based off of the daily bias, we would anticipate previous daily high getting swept. Although not super confident in this because again, we're in some sort of a fair value gap. Would not be surprised at all if price just gave me a bearish close from here. And if it does give me a bearish close from here, I'm going to be way more confident on the next day that it's going to go down and it's going to target this liquidity level Instead, because right now, again, when we were starting to go up, my eyes immediately came to this fair value gap over here as my key level. Now that we have filled in the key level, all right, what's the next objective? If we get a bearish candle close, then I would anticipate this being the next objective. But again, too early to tell. So, so far bearishness. Now that this has happened, I'm going to be a lot more confident in this happening. So boom, now that this has happened, a lot more confident in this happening because that's liquidity level that we're going for. This is an inside candle, inside bar, but still overall bearish and we don't really have any fair value gaps. In fact, if anything, we have formed a bearish order block over here that we just filled. So yeah, next day we're looking for shorts and still short. Very tiny candle, but still that's the correct read. And liquidity point has not yet been taken and we got a bearish close, so still going to target bearish. We're still just going to be looking for shorts. Again, inside bar, not really, and I can't really control the fact that there's very little volatility right now, but we're still going to be aiming for lower because again liquidity point has not yet been taken and price is really close to this level right now. Kaboom! And yeah, that's the big move. Now that you have started dumping, considering that you're not at a key liquidity level yet, right? These are both the key liquidity levels over here on the daily chart. We could reasonably anticipate that price is going to continue lower. It's not just going to magically bounce from this point onwards. So we're just going to continue looking for shorts. Now looking for shorts again, liquidity level has not yet been hit. Continue looking for shorts. Daily, just because this is bullish, it filled in this fair value gap actually. So I would actually anticipate the next day going down. Yeah, that's That's the correct read. And if you only understood step 1, which is if bullish candle close, you go bullish, then you would've completely missed out on quite a few of these reads here. And you would've definitely gone in with very high confidence into these bullish candles where in fact you should be very cautious. You would not know that unless you understood liquidity concepts and PD arrays and applied them to the daily chart so that you can get a better read on your daily bias. Again, bearish close. The fact that we're very close to a liquidity point right now means that I'm gonna be way more confident on that very next day. So let's take a look. Ah, that's an inside bar. Close is bullish though. But again, the overall downtrend, you just come like this daily candle just filled in this order block right here. I would actually not be so excited to jump back into a long. Not to say that it's not possible that today could just close a lot higher. It's just that the odds of price actually going down from here is higher. And if you remember the core motto of how to make money in trading or how to be successful at trading over the long run, it's simply Taking the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome and repeating this day in, day out for a long period of time. And if you can continue to do that, then that's how you become profitable. So on this day right here, we're going to be looking for shorts. And yeah, we do in fact take out the previous daily low. So that's a win. So I lost track. Okay. So right now, right, there's an interesting kind of point here where we're coming back into a previous daily high, but we swept out actually previous liquidity plus we're coming back into previous resistance. So this again would be one of those days that just because we have a bullish daily bias, I'm going to be a lot more cautious. Right. I'm going to make sure that in the lower timeframes, I'm going to see enough confirmation that, okay, price does in fact want to go higher before jumping into a long. I'm not just going to automatically assume that just because I have a bullish daily bias here that I will look for a long, because the point is I know that price is coming back into fair value gap right now, and you have just swept liquidity, which means that this sets the tone for a move like this, right? So this is one of those days where I would just go for a no trade. But since we're just doing this exercise on the daily bias, strictly speaking, we would be going for longs. But again, You're seeing this right now. That cautious is very much warranted right now. The fact that it's continuing bearish means that I'm going to continue. Like, I have way more certainty in these bearish moves because of this liquidity point right here. So again, this ended up being, you know, a bit of a weird candle. But yeah, just because this is bullish now, we would, you know, consider bullish and bullish again. We would consider bullish, bullish again. We would consider bullish. And the reason why, like, my stance changed is because over here with this, you know, Bullish candle close right here. We actually got a bullish order block, so I'm reasonably anticipating that price is going to go for a retracement here before continuing towards the downside. But right now, I think the retracement is pretty much done. Again, this is another one-two-three wins plus this one as well technically because previous daily high got taken out. Right now, the fact that it's closing bearish. All right, next day bearish again. I will still be leaning towards the short side until these liquidity points are taken out. So bearish again. Again, slight bullish candle close here. But I'm going to take that with a grain of salt considering that we're very close to the previous liquidity point right now. And I realized like on my chart right here, I see a couple of boxes. So I know that price eventually comes to this point. So yeah, just to prevent myself from giving you answers that might seem like cheating, hopefully this is a good demo to show you exactly how you apply PD arrays, liquidity, and your understanding of overall order flow into making better reads on the daily bias. And I think so far, Like initially I did not start out strong, but over a larger sample size, I think I definitely hit that 80, at least 75% kind of win rate in terms of like reading the daily bias. And this is the gold standard that you want to aim for. Let me know if you have any questions or heck, let's just play it out a few days and see eventually if we ever return back to that key liquidity level. Obviously, like at some point the read will definitely change. All right. Turns out not. All right. Fair enough. But yeah, at some point, you know, the read will definitely change. It's not like just because I'm looking for this means that it absolutely has to happen. It's like, Day in, day out, as we see the order flow kind of change, we will definitely adapt accordingly. But yeah, it's very interesting that a liquidity point didn't actually get hit. But right now, again, daily chart, I'm gonna pause the video here. Where do you think the draw on liquidity is? If you said over here, you would be correct, which means that until price reaches this liquidity point right here, we'll give a lot more weight towards the bullish kind of daily bias prints. We're gonna give, well, we're gonna be a lot more cautious when it comes to the bearish ones, a lot more certain when it comes to the bullish candle closes. Hopefully this helps and yeah, see you.
