How I’m setting up for a potential bitcoin crash (Iran War)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to be giving you the rundown on what you need to understand for crypto heading into this week. But besides that, I'm going to give you the daily setup for Bitcoin. And without any further ado, let's start things off with talking about oil because this is the hot topic. Take a look at the price of oil. It's basically trading like a meme coin at this point because it's gone up by almost 80% in the course of the last 2 weeks alone. And the last time we've seen prices all the way up here is back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, back in 2011 to 2014 when we had the Libyan civil war. And the 2008 financial crisis. Every other point before then, well, you never really saw oil prices this high. What does this mean exactly? Let me paint the picture this way, right? When oil prices go up, inflation tends to spike. And when inflation spikes, the Federal Reserve is not able to reduce their interest rates. Also, they tend to, you know, make a couple of moves, panic, right? And basically, like, when the Federal Reserve panics, like, risk assets like stocks and crypto tends to tank. Why? Because, and in times of uncertainty, the first thing people tend to offload is their risk assets. So we're talking about stocks, we're talking about crypto. So that they can park it into an asset that is quote unquote safer. Usually that means the dollar. Case in point, if you take a look at the dollar, this has been going up as well. Although like I would definitely hope for the dollar to go even higher than what it is right now. Case in point, if we take a look at the dollar, the dollar has already been going up for the past couple of weeks. Now, is it a huge move compared to what's happening on oil? No. But the problem with oil is that it doesn't always, you know, have negative implications right away. After all, most of these big companies and most of these, you know, big countries, they've got contracts with these oil companies for for, you know, 2, 3, 6, 12 months in advance that, okay, I'm going to lock in this contract right now and I'm going to be purchasing oil from you at this price. This is just like a gesture of goodwill, like a bulk order, kind of like volume purchase kind of thing where, all right, we get to lock in this price for the next, you know, 2 to 3 months. This just helps keep everything stable so that countries and these big organizations, they're not dealing with oil fluctuations like day in, day out. So it's, you're not going to see the effects yet, but just as a couple of examples, My home country, Malaysia, has basically come out and said that if the oil prices remain this high, then they're going to have to bump the oil prices. And if there's any Malaysians here watching, you know that we have some of the lowest oil prices in the world. Like, as long as I can remember, and I'm talking like for more than a decade, the oil prices have been at a constant 40 or 50 cents per liter. And that's because the government is subsidizing the difference in, you know, whatever the oil prices are. But it's gotten so bad now that if the oil continues to remain this way, And then the government is no longer able to continue tanking these bullets and just eating the damage. And they're going to have to raise prices. You take a look at Japan, they have 8 to 9 months worth of oil reserves. So in the immediate short term, right within the next couple of months, maybe 3 months, it's not going to have widely negative implications. But if this war continues, which I'm not one to say and I'm not one to make predictions, but if it does, like crypto is going to be in for a rough ride. And so with that said, I think this will kind of like inform our decisions on how we're going to approach crypto over the next few months. Now, the first thing you need to understand about crypto is that if you take a look at the weekly chart, so far it is looking bearish. And I expect this to continue looking bearish all the way until we hit $50,000 because this is the next level of liquidity. Now, right now, the only potential saving grace is the fact that we are in a weekly order block at the moment, which means that price should theoretically head up from here. But again, based on macroeconomic factors, that seems to be unlikely, right? We're going to go to $50K until proven otherwise. And the way that you prove otherwise is to get a change in state of delivery on the weekly chart, which will need Bitcoin to go all the way up to $94,000 in order to make that happen. Basically, if you just take a look at the overall market structure of Bitcoin, this thing has been making higher highs and higher lows consistently ever since 2023, ever since the bottom of the bear market basically. And this is the first time, right? A few months ago, we finally got a potential lower low. I mean, a lower low and a potential lower high, which got confirmed a couple of months later. And ever since then, we are now at the start of a downtrend. And here's the thing about downtrends, especially when they are showing signals on the weekly chart, they tend to not be over, or at least they will last a lot longer than you think, at least 6 to 12 months. So considering that we've only begun the downtrend roughly around November of last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see this downtrend last for at least another 2 to 3 months, which in that case, if somehow the war becomes over, like again, too many variables for me to keep track of. But if the war is over by that point and we hit $50,000, that will give us a very huge potential for some sort of a V-shaped recovery. But until then, I think we are like, I cannot, we cannot lie to ourselves and say that, oh yeah, you know, prices are looking good or like Bitcoin is still bullish. Because the reality is that it's not. Bitcoin is bearish and it will continue to be bearish until proven otherwise. And right now we have zero signs of that. So we're still going to be trading Bitcoin towards the short side. And last week, we finally managed to get a bullish close. However, like, again, this could be a little bit misleading. So as far as the daily chart goes, like, just a couple of things. It could be a little bit misleading, at least in the slightly longer term. Like, we're still going to be trading the system as, you know, we would any other week. And given the fact that it's a weekly bias, and given the fact that it's a bullish weekly bias, we're still going to be looking for longs today. So, and given the fact that it's a bullish weekly bias, we're still going to be looking for this week to basically, you know, target the previous weekly high and to ideally close bullish. That's still the bias heading into this week. But again, as I've already mentioned, we are in very volatile times at the moment. This could change at any given moment. And for like, just follow me here, follow me on Twitter. I will give you any updates as they happen. And most importantly, like not just updates, but you know, I'm posting all of my live trades, you know, on social media so that we can all make money together. But now that I'm mentioning this, to you guys that are subscribed to the newsletter, I think you already know the news, but we're going to be having a live trading flow event coming up where I'm just going to be live trading the markets for a couple of days. And if any of you are interested in spending a month with me, live trading alongside me for like the entire month leading up to that event and even after that event, feel free to click the first link in the description box below to sign up to the live trading event. It's completely free, by the way. It's just, you know, if you may be interested in the other one, feel free to check it out. But otherwise, yeah, sign up. This is going to be fun. It's going to be interesting. Yeah, otherwise, like if you're not interested, don't worry. But if you are, it's completely free to sign up. But anyways, going back into the daily chart, so far what we can see is that we have broken out of this entire range right here. Now, there are only two ways that this can really play out right now, and I'm going to give you both scenarios based on what I'm seeing at the market so far. Weekly chart is pointing towards the upside, which means theoretically speaking, we should be looking for longs this week. Now, if today goes any lower than the current price right now, which is basically like $65,600, you are going to end up forming relatively equal lows. Let me just draw this out. You basically don't want price to come all the way down to $64,000 or to really trade a lot lower than this line right here because this is the 0.705 within this low to this high. So either you bounce from here or you are going to go lower. In order for this bullish weekly bias to remain intact, we do not want to be trading below $65,800. Or like, we can come down for a bit, but we do not want to see price closing below this level. If it does, then yeah, throw this bullish direction— if it does, then yeah, throw this bullish scenario out the window because it is no longer valid. But right now, based on the fact that we have a bullish weekly bias, We have broken out of the range successfully, and right now we're retracing back into the 0.705. We are still going to be looking for longs, although potentially not today because we're dealing with 3 straight days of a bearish bias. But let me go down into the 1-hourly chart to see what, like, what sense I can make out of this. Just to kick things off, we have a bullish change in state of delivery, which is fantastic. So we can even say that this entire thing right here is the bullish change in state of delivery, although I would say that we managed to close above here. This would give us much more certainty in heading for a long today because at the very least it would mean that we can still make an argument right now that price is going to get rejected from this bearish order block and to continue going towards the downside. That would be the trigger for me to look for longs today, considering that it's a Monday and there is no news today. Just the fact that we're trading into a bearish daily bias means that the way that I'm approaching the market conditions of the day is that I want to see more certainty, right? I want to be a little bit more cautious compared to, you know, compared to a usual day. Why? Here's the thing that most people don't talk about when it comes to market conditions. You have market conditions that are absolutely amazing, right? For oil right now, if anyone has gone long over the last 2 weeks, it's easy money, right? You don't have to be a genius in order to make money in a market that is fundamentally just shooting up. That's why people say that, you know, but right now, but the opposite side of that spectrum is a market condition where you may not have much reason for the markets to move. And in cases like that, and you want to play it safe, Just like how you would be a lot more aggressive when you can understand, hey, market conditions are amazing, I don't have to be a genius at this, let me just throw money at the market and, you know, let me make a quick buck. But when market conditions are uncertain, well, guess what? You also play accordingly. So this is what I mean by adapting for the market conditions. And so far for today, because it's a Monday, because it's a non-news Monday as well, like just to give you some idea, I've been tracking my trades for the past 12 months and out of the 180 or so trades, I think the majority of our losses have come on non-news Mondays. Now, even though I have an overall win rate of 75%, but the fact that most of the losses come on Mondays and non-news Mondays in specific leads me to believe, or at the very least, it leads me to have a little bit more caution when it comes to non-news Mondays. Either way, if you are looking to, you know, just dive straight into it, like right now we've already technically gotten a bullish CSD, and right now this is the order block. So as long as this order block here does not get broken today, I think we're going to have reasonable grounds to get into a long setup for today. In fact, as far as Non-News Mondays come, this is one of the cleaner ones that I've seen so far. So right now, the setup is straightforward. As we head into the New York morning, which in this case, it's already 6 AM New York, like anywhere between 7 AM to 10 AM New York, as long as you retrace back into here, you're just going to be looking for a long. And in fact, if the market continues to just go towards the upside, you're just going to be taking advantage of all of the new, you know, fair value gaps that form. Along this move. Because here's the thing, right? In terms of the 5-minute chart, you're already bullish in terms of order flow. In terms of the 1-hourly, you could already argue that you are bullish in terms of order flow. So all that remains is to continue trading this towards the upside. Although I would not try to target for too much, right? Another way that you can adapt to these market conditions is that, hey, when you're expecting volatility, maybe you can set your target a little bit further than what you would normally do. Because, well, that's a way of adapting for the market conditions. But when you have market conditions where you're not expecting too, too much, well, guess what? Maybe shorten the target a bit so that at the very least you're still going to get a high probability win. It's just you're basically just playing each day, like you're just basically trying to get what you can take from each day, and every day is going to be different. That's kind of what makes trading both hard and interesting at the same time. Otherwise, yeah, in terms of today, um, all you need to see is honestly just bullish order flow during the New York session. If you end up getting a kind of close below like 67,100, obviously like that this entire day is just going to be a no-trade day. I will be posting any— I will be posting my ideas later on today. Although, um, I just realized also that, uh, the clocks have shifted back. Basically daylight savings has happened. Like, I usually record my videos around this time, and you know, for the last couple of months, uh, this time was around 5:00 AM New York, but now I could see that it's 6:00 AM, probably because the clocks have shifted. So I may or may not be, you know, as— I may or may not be posting, you know, any trades on Twitter. Around the same time. But if I do get into anything and if I happen to be seeing anything, I will still be posting it. Outside of that, guys, but outside of that, let's move on to Ethereum. So you just take a look at Ethereum so far, exact same setup with Bitcoin, to be honest. Like, I wouldn't, I don't really think I need to spend too much time covering this except, whoa, it's beautiful. So, all right, Ethereum is showing a lot more strength compared to Bitcoin. In fact, let's take a look at total 3 and has it been gaining much strength? Not really. What about total 2? Not really. All right, Ethereum right now is definitely showing a little bit more strength compared to Bitcoin because like if you just take a look at the exact same Bitcoin chart where Bitcoin has not yet, you know, confirmed that CIC, Ethereum already has. So technically, as far as longs are concerned, Ethereum might even be the better one to trade for today. Because in the 1-hourly chart, you have not yet went above this previous order block. So if you do and when you do, use this order block as the level that you take advantage of, basically trading above this, and then you're just going to trade continuation towards the upside. Obviously, if you end up, you closing the hourly below this level, this is going to make the trade idea completely invalidated. So just keep that in mind. Now, as far as Solana is concerned, Solana is looking quite considerably weaker compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin. So I would prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum today for a long. Now, just keep in mind again that we're dealing with bearish daily bias here, even though on the hourly chart we already have bullish CSD. This last kind of like pieces to the puzzle, which is not a long way away, but it's It's just that little bit, that little bit of distance, right? A convincing candle close above this level would kind of reduce or like just remove any doubts that today could potentially just dump like that. So again, I would exercise extreme caution when it comes to trading today simply because like the market conditions are not perfect. Something that regularly happens when we get into non-news Mondays is that, you know, everything in terms of price action will line up, but then it just won't play out in the way that we're expecting it to purely because it's a Monday. It's still setting up for the week., and it's super normal. So again, play this with caution, but otherwise I'm gonna see you guys on Twitter later. And guys, I'm super excited to see you guys on that live trading event. Make sure you sign up if you haven't. Like you guys have probably learned my system already, but if you would like to just see me execute it, or better yet, like execute it alongside me for like a couple of days, this is it. But yeah, bit of a longer video today. Appreciate you staying to the end. See you.