is bitcoin back in a bull market? (here's the trades I'm taking)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. What an absolutely beautiful sight it is that Bitcoin is finally pumping, basically since the end of last year. If you take a look here, like basically since November of last year we've been just on a drop and then so far we're in a range. Now in this video I'm going to break down exactly if we are back into a bull market or are we actually still in a bear market and like we could still, like this could just be a bull trap and you know we could go all the way lower. I'm also going to share the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for today to take advantage of this move because these are good times and when good times roll around like let's take advantage of it. Otherwise, who knows, we could just go back to choppy conditions again without any sort of warning. So yeah, before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these videos that I've been making here on YouTube. And so far I'm at about a 75% win rate across all of the trade calls that I've been making since a year and a half ago, which simply means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. And yeah, let's get into it. Now, first of all, I did cover really greatly in detail, like what we would need to look for in terms of a bull market reversal. And currently, I don't think we have all of the signals yet, right? So I'm just going to spare you the time. I'm not going to kind of dilly-dally around. But just because we are pumping, just because this is the biggest pump that we've had in a very short amount of time, does not mean that we're fully in the clear yet. If you take a look at the chart here, previously, we did have a span of about 6 weeks where we pumped by about 25-30% from the lows. Ultimately, price ended up continuing towards the downside from that point onwards. Now, I called this also back then because we were coming into some sort of resistance level. Now, this time around, it's going to be a little bit different in the sense where currently we are operating in a range, right? I mentioned this at the start of the video, but this is the range high and this is the range low. Clearly, you can see that the range low has been swept. And when you're in a range, when you sweep the range highs, that's going to be like the truly testing kind of moment because above this range high, you have this bunch of resistance over here. This is a bearish order block in terms of the weekly chart, right? This is not some small lower timeframe stuff that we're just going to disregard. This is high timeframe stuff, which adds a lot of kind of validity and strength to it. But you can clearly see how this could play out, right? You sweep the range lows and you go all the way to sweep up the range highs, trick people into thinking that the bull market's back, fill in the order block, and then you continue all the way back to the range low. Now, the one sign, right, one signal that you're going to look for in order to kind of invalidate this is a candle closure above this level. At $82,700-ish. And we are, mind you, we're talking about the weekly chart here, which means by the time this happens, like, it's probably going to be at least a couple more weeks. Unless, of course, like, volatility continues to be this crazy, then yeah, we're going to hit this basically by next week. Now, am I counting on that? No. Do I know what's going to happen? Absolutely not as well, right? Who would have known that volatility was going to pick up this much this suddenly? And what we can do though is to, you know, keep a level head and take advantage of any moves that may come. And most importantly, to play it day by day, right? This is not the moment where you should be like FOMO entering and, you know, putting your entirety of the funds that you have saved up and thinking that, okay, the bottom is in. Because the truth is, in terms of the macro perspective, the bottom is not in yet. If we just take a look, right, if we just kind of zoom out for a bit, you can see that for the most part, right, price has been still kind of in a downtrend. Not only are you making lower highs and lower lows, but basically until this high is taken, right, this is kind of like step one where maybe you might have some sort of reversal, especially if you manage to form a higher low over there. Like that gives us a lot more, you know, kind of certainty. That is not gonna happen that soon though. So that's all I would caution you guys against. But for now, I'm not kind of predicting that, you know, price will kind of do this again. We're playing it day by day for now. And once we get to this level, it depends, right? If we get a candle closure above this level, like that's gonna mean a lot. But if we simply get a wick above this level and then price starts to aggressively dump towards the downside, or if we get like changes in order flow or changes in market structure or whatever, and price just starts going lower, that's a very straightforward sign that this is just a liquidity sweep, right? Trick people into thinking that price is gonna go up and then you're actually just gonna reverse all the way back down to the range low. And remember, in a bear market, you're always looking for liquidity levels that could be hit. Like for example, yesterday I marked out the liquidity level that was gonna get hit, but both of them ended up getting hit, right? And at the moment, if we just zoom out for a bit, you can see that the key liquidity level is over here at around $50,000. Or to be exact, right, it's $49,000. But you know, we're gonna say $50K. So at the moment, wouldn't be surprised, right? Wouldn't be surprised if this is what happens long-term. But I also wouldn't be surprised if price just does this instead. Now again, the time will come when I will give you a much clearer read. But for now, just purely based off of reading the market structure and everything, it is still bearish. I know short-term we're bullish, which leads me on to the trade that we're going to be taking, which is for today going to be bullish. Now yesterday was an absolutely insane day. Um, the person— like, yesterday was an absolutely insane day personally. Um, even though price was pumping really aggressively, I did not manage to kind of get a move out of it, which kind of leads me on to another lesson as well. Which is that, which kind of leads me onto another lesson as well, which is that like a lot of people tend to beat themselves up over, you know, okay, price has been pumping this aggressively, but then maybe they did not manage to take advantage or, you know, just make any money out of this move. But the truth is you never need to beat yourself up over it. Just because there's a move happening in the markets does not mean that you need to take it. You could always just let things go by. The key thing to understand here is all of trading, right, basically boils down to what does your system say? Like just to explain what I mean, the only time when you jump into a trade is when all the criteria in your system or in your strategy says, okay, you're good to go for a trade. So as an example, yesterday we ended up getting the bullish CSD. Unfortunately, this was happening at around 11:30, right? It's 11:30 AM when price actually returned back into this order block. Now that is outside of the rules of my system because my system requires me to take trades between 7:00 AM to ideally, or like 8:00 AM all the way till 11:00 AM. Especially if it's past 11:00 AM, usually that gets very close to the New York lunch hour. And what you'd often get, right, often, is price starts being very choppy and very low volatility in general. Now here's the key word though, in general, right? That happens more often, which means in the rare event that we get continued, like really strong movement past the New York lunch hour or around the New York lunch hour, that is not a reason that you need to beat yourself up over it because you are statistically making the right move here by avoiding, you know, usually subpar market conditions, right? Overall, statistically speaking, that is the better high-quality move. Just because you miss out on a couple which is gonna happen forever. Like as long as you're in trading, you are gonna have, you know, these kind of outlier movements. Doesn't mean that it's a mistake. If anything, following your rules and understanding like trading success, especially on a long-term perspective, comes from consistently taking higher probability outcomes over lower probability outcomes and just continuing to do that consistently over time. So in that sense, like missing out on this one is not necessarily a mistake, right? There's always another trade, there's always another day. So if you struggle with the FOMO and if you struggle with kind of letting moves go past, hopefully this is something that helps you. Now what I just described here is, you know, just one of the things that we help. Now at this point, if you're gaining value from all of these daily videos that I'm making, then consider dropping a like on the video. It generally means a lot to me and definitely helps me to just keep showing up every single day and giving you guys some solid trades and helping you guys make money. Now, now that that's over, let's get into the actual trade idea that we're going to be looking for today. Now this is going to be slightly complicated, right? Not very complicated, just slightly, in the sense where we have a key liquidity level here that I marked out, which honestly I am surprised that we have hit it in basically the In less than 24 hours, but it doesn't change the fact that we have hit a key liquidity level over here, right? On the daily chart, this is a couple of relatively equal highs that we have not revisited since basically like 3 months ago. And so now that the key liquidity level has been hit, plus the fact that today, so far we started at $73,000 and right now we're at $78,000, right? That's a move of $5,000. And understanding that, you know, even if we look at just the average volatility of the last 3 days, right? Every single daily candle has on average moved between $5,000 to $6,000. It could tell us that the high of the day could already be in. Now, this is not clear yet, but either way, because of how bullish the market structure has been and how bullish order flow has been, we are still going to be looking for longs today, right? Just purely based on the daily chart. Now I'm going to get into the lower timeframes to see if this could remain true. Now, immediately on the lower timeframes, I can see that we have a bullish order block over here and we have a bullish fair value gap over here. And considering right now, as of the time that I'm recording this video, it's already around 6 AM. The setup for today is going to be rather straightforward in the sense where we have a couple of fair value gaps that price could retrace to today. And the reason why I'm not really considering this order block as a retracement level is that this is going to be quite a deep retracement, right? By the time this happens, you're going to get quite a lot of bearish price action heading into it. And even if you were to go long here, right, you're going to be trading into a lot of bearishness. So ideally, we are not going to be considering this because it is slightly irrelevant to the context that we're trading with today, which remember, this system is primarily a range trading system, which means that we're looking to get in and out of the trades within a few hours. So This could be a little bit too irrelevant. And also you have to keep in mind that we're looking to take these trades between the hours of 8:00 AM or like 7:00 AM all the way till 11:00 AM. So something that's a bit too far could be completely unrealistic. Although if we just, if the last few days has been any sort of an indication of how volatility is looking like, who knows, we could just blow past this and end up getting, I don't know, like a $10,000 volatility day where we start the day at 73 and we end the day at 83, right? Who knows? I don't know. But the key thing here is that these 2 levels are going to be way more relevant. So starting at $77,250 all the way down to $77,000, like basically this first fair value gap here on the 1-hourly chart is going to be the first level. But we're going to look for some sort of a tap into this level followed by some sort of 5-minute CSD towards the upside. So it's not enough to just come into this level, you place your entry here, you place your stop loss, and you target this high, for example. Ideally, you want to wait for price to come into this level, within the timing that I mentioned earlier, which is 7 to 11, and you want to see a 5-minute change in state of delivery, right? I'm going to show you that. Now, if this level— now, if price ends up just kind of blowing through this level and continues lower, especially within the timing period, then all we have to do is to wait for this one, right? When price comes to here, and if you still get that 5-minute CSD, especially within that timing zone, that is still going to be a valid trade. But if it goes below this one, like, I'm not really going to count on it. Now, in terms of the 5-minute, Again, the way that this is going to look like. And in fact, I can already see some sort of a range being formed here. So in the event that this gets swept, all you need to do is to look for something like that. And this is going to be your entry. This is going to be your stop. And the target for today, honestly, I don't want to be too greedy in the sense where since a key liquidity level has already been hit and just taking a look at the 1-hour chart as well as the 4-hour chart, like the next kind of key level is going to be all the way up here at $83,000. I'm going to say that if you do get into any trades today, let's not be too greedy. Let's just target for 2R considering most of the volatility has already come in Asia and London. So I really wouldn't be surprised if New York just ends up retracing or starts chopping around. So if this happens still though, like it's still a valid trade, but in the event that it does, we're gonna be more conservative with our targets, right? Just to give you an example, we're gonna set this number to 2, right? Basically 2 risk to rewards. This is 1 stop loss and like 1, 2, right? You know, this is a stop loss. You multiply that by 2. So if you're risking $100, you stand to gain $200 back. Now you could also target the current daily high, considering this is a single print, means that, you know, there is a chance— there is a decent chance actually— you could actually return back to this area at $79,600, uh, which would give us, you know, probably a 3.5R, which is still amazing as far as trades go. Of course, if there are any setups that I'm, you know, going to be entering, I'm going to be keeping you guys posted on X. Yesterday, like, there simply just wasn't anything much. Maybe I should have updated you guys that this was already outside the kill zone, but again, Like I've already mentioned, like this is more of an outlier. And in fact, the price action from this entire week so far has been a bit of an outlier kind of week. But still we've managed to basically call every single directional move correctly. And overall we did make like this week so far, all of the trades on Bitcoin have been wins. It's just, could they have been way bigger wins? Absolutely. But it's not like we would've known that price would've been this volatile anyways. So again, don't beat yourself up over things that you cannot control or predict. And by the way, if you've been watching my videos for a while, you also understand like this system right here that I'm trading works and it works incredibly well. And if you'd like my help to kind of install the system for you so that you can also start being very consistent and start making a full-time living out of trading, then click the first link in the description box below. Like so far we've had around 60 students come through our doors and 32 of them are currently funded or just making a full-time living from trading, which is a success rate that very little other programs, if any other programs, can claim. So all I mean to say is that this is something that works. And if you'd like to also just start getting results from trading instead of struggling and not understanding what you're screwing up on, you're going to find a lot of value from it. But otherwise, this has been an amazing week, and I'm going to see you guys next week where we're going to look to really capitalize and be a lot more aggressive as long as market conditions allow. Ciao ciao!