Is The Bottom In For Bitcoin? Or Are More Dumps Incoming?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Last week ended up being absolutely spot on where we called the market maker sound model at exactly the hour when news came on, you retrace back into the CIC and down you go. This was called to perfectly and I can definitely see from the comment section that a lot of you have managed to make money off of that call. So congrats. That was a really great ending to a really great week. And this time around, we're going to try to replicate what we did on last Friday. Right before I get into it though, we ended last month with nine wins and four losses. That puts our total since I started publicly tracking this since February to 97 wins over the last 122 calls that I've made here on YouTube. That puts us overall at a like 79.5% win rate. The reason I mentioned this is just to give you confidence if you're new to this channel, that, yeah, sure, we may lose sometimes. For example, last month was probably the one of the worst months in terms of overall, like, kind of win rate. For example, like, because with four losses, I only got nine wins. And for the most part, there are also less calls last month compared to, you know, every month from before where, you know, May was an exceptional month. And the reason why this is the case, to be honest, is just market conditions. Last month is a perfect example of why I always emphasize the importance of, you know, understanding your market conditions and taking it into account. Because so far, if you take a look at the weekly chart, this, this 1, 2, 3, 4, that's last month, you basically took out the previous Alan High and you started retracing. And the moment you go down to the daily chart outside of shorts, you can see that there were quite a few, you know, choppy candles, right? There were at least 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, maybe 7, maybe like 10 days where things are just, you know, quite unclear. And on those days it was very tough for me to make a call. And so we played it a bit more safe. But even on the times where I did, you know, kind of make a call and to take a trade, it ended up with more losses rather than wins or at least more losses than usual. And so this is the important part about just understanding the market condition that you're in. Last month is a perfect example of what I always say, like, when the market conditions are not present and like when you don't have just optimal market conditions, you take it easy and you wait until better conditions present themselves and then you will probably end up with, you know, months like May and months like you know, July, sorry, May and April, where, you know, that is exceptional by all standards. But anyways, now that that part is out of the way, let's get into the weekly analysis. So just starting things off on the weekly chart, one thing that you must realize is that we have just filled in this weekly order block right here. And so there is a pretty high likelihood that price is going to bounce from this point onwards. As for when it will happen, I have no idea. Price could literally spend 1, 2, 3, 4, like however many weeks just within this order block. And as long as you do not break below this order block, at least from the weekly perspective, you're still good, right? The uptrend is still intact, everything is still good. Like if you, even if I zoom out for a little bit, this is going to become much more clear. These are high highs and high lows. And so until at the very minimum, this low is taken out, like nothing has changed in regards to the bull market, everything is still intact and we expect to buy the dip here for prices to continue higher. And one of the key lessons that I kind of want to impart to you, hopefully, is this I had to learn the hard way, which is you want to ideally be trading what the market is telling you objectively, rather than what you want to see from the markets. What I mean by that is a lot of people, like, I've gotten so many texts, so many dms and so many comments recently of people asking me like, hey, do I think the top of the bull run is over? But the reality is, doesn't matter. Like, I, I don't really know what to tell you because sure, I may have my own opinion, but that doesn't mean that my new trading decisions are going to reflect that opinion. Now the reason why that is the case is because based on every observable metric that I can see on the charts right now, price is bullish, right? And until that bullishness is over, I'm still going to buy high and sell higher. Like sometimes a lot of it. Like what I've also realized, like, a lot of the times where people ask me that question, it's because they probably entered into crypto, like somewhere within the last three to six months where, you know, for the last two years, like this is going on for two years now, you would have done exceptionally well if you just bought every dip and just sold higher. And so if you're coming at the top, like right now, like, what, what may feel like the top. I understand where you're coming from, but my advice is always going to remain the same. Like, there is no point trying to make a prediction on when the bull market's going to be over. Because some people said the bull market was over here, people said the bull market was over here, people said the bull market was over there. And all three, like, every single, you know, person that you know had an opinion about this and actually made a financial decision based on this prediction of theirs, well, they would have missed out on all of this. And so, sure, there's always the risk that the bull market is over, but at least for now, what you can see from the chart is that just buy high and sell higher, because so far, like, not only is market structure intact, but order flow is also intact. And so we just traded accordingly. So now that that's over weekly, Sean, again, you're in some kind of a bullish order block right now. I don't know if this week will be the week that bout is. The reason, you know, say that with a tone of concern is because this weekly candle, the last weekly candle, closed bearish. Which means our weekly bias this week should be bearish. But the problem with that is that we are in some kind of weekly order block, which means based on this, we expect price to go up. Based on this, we expect price to go down. As for which signal is stronger, I would like to think that this signal is stronger because this is a level that I have been calling to get hit basically since three weeks ago when we were here. Like, I was already saying, like, okay, price is going to retrace back into this per gap or this order block. And so far, three weeks later, it's finally happening. And another thing you need to realize about these higher time frame moons is that they are higher time frame moves for a reason. They take time to happen. It took three weeks just to get back into this level. And it wouldn't be surprising if it took another, you know, couple of weeks, maybe three weeks before we finally start showing a really clear sign that we are about to get out of here. Now, I'm not saying necessarily that it's going to take that long, but, like, just don't be surprised if it takes that long. Now we're going to try and break it down on the lower time frame just to see if there are certain conditions that when met, we can jump into the market sooner rather than waiting for, like a weekly confirmation. So taking a look at the daily chart, clearly the order flow is bearish. Like, this is A bearish order block. Price broke down, came back up, failed to, you know, break above and a boom. Now you form a new low, which means that at the moment, for the foreseeable future, this is going to be a bearish order block that price is very likely to get rejected from. And sub price needs to break above this level before any sort of reversal could possibly happen. Now just to give you an idea of how this is going to play out, like if you take a look at the one Audi, the way I was able to call the market maker sell model and the way that I was able to call the top here is this is a bearish order flag, right? This is a bearish order block. Price breaks lower, comes back up into the bearish order block, fails. So this is the first order block that price breaks, manages to break out of. But the problem is it happened in 1, 2, 3 impulses. This is a typical market maker s model and that's when you ended up dumping and eventually you got rejected from this order block right here. Now, ideally for bullishness, you would have liked to see price break above that order block come down to treat like the previous resistance, flip it into potential support and then for price to, you know, continue higher from there. Problem is that this is exactly what we're having on the daily chart at the moment where you have the first order block. But ideally, realistically we want to see this level get broken first before we can just concretely say that, yeah, okay, bull market is back intact and we're going to continue to go up. Now I'm sure this is going to happen. This is bound to happen sometime within the next two, three, four, I don't know how many, like how long it'll take, but it's very likely to happen actually within the next two weeks. Why? Because on September 16th we're going to have the next FOMC event. And this is when Jerome Powell has a at least based on current market odds, he has a 75% chance of reducing the interest rate of the United States dollar. And this is a really good sign because the lower the interest rates, like basically risk on assets thrive on low interest rates. So stuff like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, the Bitcoin, like crypto, whatever thing that is risky, the lower the interest rates, it provides the best environment for these assets to default. And if Euro Powell is going to drop the interest rates, at least with a very high degree of certainty, then we can expect a bullish move to happen sometime within the next two to three weeks. So that's kind of the timeline that we can look at. And so within the next two to three weeks, if something like this happens, we can realistically expect, you know, price to actually go higher. But again, like so far, bearish order flip. So whatever longs that we take here doesn't mean that we cannot take longs. It's just we need to be careful or we need to be cautious because like, technically the trend is still, you know, pointing downwards. Any sort of, you know, pump is just going to give you an opportunity, at least based on the current architecture, current order flow, to sell high so that you can, you know, for price to drop lower. And that's where you can take profit on your shorts. Based on that. Like another thing that we need to take into account is this low right here. If you take a look at this previous swing low right here, this was recently swept earlier today. Now the only issue that I can see with this one is that on the Binance chart, this was not necessarily swept, or at least I don't think so. So the low of this candle, if you take a look at the top over here, the low of this candle is at 107200 and the low of this candle is 107211. So technically on Binance, this low has not yet been swept. So these are relatively equal lows. But on bybit, which so far has been taking the lead in terms of perpetual kind of like volume, it has been swept. And so are we going to revisit that area? I'm truly, truly not sure. This also falls into the fact that today's Monday. If you guys have ever heard of London and New York session, you know that we always try to prioritize trading either within the London session or the New York session. And there's a good reason for that with the Asia session, because it's the first session of the day, it's a little bit tougher to predict what price is going to do or like what kind of behavior it is going to show. There is a reason why the Asia session is tend to. It tends to be called the opening range of the day. And Monday is a lot like the Asia session, where Monday is kind of like the opening range of the week. So yes, while we may be able to get some Mondays right, for the most part Mondays are really tough to predict or at least cover than a day like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And this is again further reflected by the fact that most of the news days coming this week around, it's going to be On Tuesday, USD, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. And so already like good news, like the good news here is that this week we have four pieces of news throughout the week. And so this already makes this week a much higher probability trading week than the last week where, if you remember, the only two days where we properly, like we properly made money from trading was on Friday. And I believe, like now, if you remember from last week, we only had two news events the entire week. And Friday was a really good day for us because movements was super key. The other day that we managed to make money was, I believe on Wednesday. Yeah, I believe on Wednesday, but that was a bit of an anomaly. But the main day that we made the most money was on Friday, which is news day. And this is going to be a recurring trend that you all hear throughout, you know, the entirety of this channel. Like every time I make a video, I always talk about the importance of news days and the importance of trading on a news day. Now the reason why this is the case is that now the way that I always like to explain this is that in trading there are like, you're always dealing with a variety of variables and it's almost too much for you to do anything when you're dealing with this many kind of moving parts. So obviously you have whether or not pipes is going up or down, right? Just direction, how far up is it going to go, how far low is it going to drop, and then you have timing like when is this likely to happen and how long is this move going to last? So the beauty of news is that it kind of takes away one of those variables, which is you pretty much know for certain or you pretty much know with a high degree of probability that let's say on 8:30am New York time on Friday, something's going to happen, right? A move is going to happen at least around that time. And so it kind of like narrows down the variables so that you can focus more on figuring out the direction as well as how far is it going to go in that direction. So you can purely focus on the price action rather than trying to predict when things are going to happen. The other beauty of news is that they increase the probability of the move by a lot. So like last Friday, what you saw was a really clean mood. You got a market maker, some of them, that were setting up starting Thursday and then on Friday back, right. A lot of the times when you run into issues with, you know, like let's say you understand order block theory, you understand favorite gap theory, but then prices seem to you know, always play out as though, but then like your win rate isn't as high as, you know, what I'm, for example, what I would be able to achieve or other traders that you see on social media is able to achieve. A lot of that boils down to timing. Like the same concept applied at different timings. Let's say 8am during the New York session versus 8pm in the New York session. Same exact concept, the price action to look the exact same. But one of those is going to get invalidated like nine times out of 10. And there's a reason for that. Like it is not just about price action. It is quite literally behavior of price at a very specific timing throughout the day or throughout the week. And if you would like to learn more about this, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. That is where you will learn the exact system that I have been able to use to achieve like an 80% win rate over the last seven months, basically. But otherwise, let's get back into the video with the, you know, the prediction of the day, I guess, or like the trade call of the day. So earlier we were already talking about the fact that today's Monday. And so like again, the price action may be clear but then just because of the fact that it's Monday means that there is a higher likelihood that it's going to fail. Just to give you an example, I think throughout my last eight or nine Mondays where I've been making calls, I think six out of eight of those have been like losing calls where, you know, there is some kind of move that happens on Monday usually. But then because of the fact that it's Monday, it doesn't play out the way that, you know, we envision it. And so for the most part Mondays are a very losing day, at least following my system. So whatever, you know, call, if I do make a call today, just take it with a grain of salt. Just understand that if possible, like in fact today I'm probably not even going to be trading. I have a dinner later and with a bunch of friends. And so yeah, like Monday is pretty much just a weekend for me. Most Mondays there is no news and because of that probability is low. I just take it easy. Never too late to jump into the markets starting from, you know, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday especially because this week we have news on all of those days. But anyways, going back into just what we can observe from the daily chart is that again, liquidity has been swept. So that's also why price action or why Price is kind of pumping at the limit. The problem with that is that you are running into bearish resistance right now. So going long doesn't quite make sense because of the overall order flow as we've discussed previously. But going short also doesn't quite make sense because you have taken out liquidity. But like, let's try to hop into the lower time frames to see if you know, there is a setup that is a little bit more clear on the one hourly. You are running into also a one hourly bearish new kind of order block and you have just swept out these relatively cool highs over here. Again, this low has here has been swept and so this becomes a strong low. And so more likely than not, if price action turns bullish right now, this is very likely to halt. Again, like because you have formed a change in state of delivery on the one hourly chart. This is now also in, you know, potentially a cic. And so in the event that you retrace back into this block of candles here, you would be looking at this as a potential bullish order block for price to actually go higher from. Problem is again like you are in overall bearish short float. And so like is the right decision to go short, is the right decision to go long. Honestly, super tough. Now the way that I would probably approach this day is I would look for, I would just trade on the lower time fix. Officially the call is going to be some kind of fill of the bearish order block right there. But then you want to look for some kind of five minute change in state of delivery. Ideally you want some kind of strong high and then once you get that change in state of delivery, basically when order flow is bearish, I'm going to target 2R and like if there is a trade that you can take today, it's probably that one. Me, I'm going to try to avoid this. Again, like I like to trade on Tuesdays. It's just, I just realized over time, like it's not about the quantity of trades that you take. It's perfectly fine to take some days off and it's more about like saving your ammunition for the high quality days. Those days where you know, price action is just so clean and you're able to take full advantage of it. I can reasonably say there's a, you know, 60, 40, maybe 70, 30 chance that price is going to like. The setup for today is probably towards the short side. But again, me, I prefer just a higher probability day. Not going to break my promise though about the altcoin. If you Take a look at Solana right now. You have just gotten a daily change to state of delivery, right? With this candle right here on last Thursday, you've gotten a daily change to state of delivery. This entire blue box, starting from like $200 all the way down to like 170, is going to become a bullish order block. In fact, you can even narrow it down to just the value area. So pay attention to Solana. It's starting to break out now. Compared to a lot of other altcoins, which are still, you know, kind of lagging behind, Solana is actually looking pretty good. And so all you need is a couple of like, you know, bullish changes. State of delivery, for example, on the one hourly chart, the level to watch is going to be 206. Once you get a break above this block right here, retrace and you can start heading higher. This is all under one hourly chart. So that's going to be a setup just to, you know, kind of reward you for staying all the way down here. And if you watch under this point so far. Leave a comment. It truly means a lot to me that you're willing to sit through, you know, 20 minutes of listening to some stranger from the Internet. Just ran. Just understand that I read every single comment. If you have any questions, if you like to. Yeah, like, whatever. Like, I read every single comment and I reply to every single comment. But until then, like me, see you guys tomorrow. And feel free to follow me on my Twitter because if there's any updates on how I would play today, I usually post it on Twitter. I will leave the link in the description box below. This is where I'm posting my aqua calls as well as. Yeah, just updates on whatever's happening on the charts. Sorry for that. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Cha Cha.