Is The Bull Run Over?

Right. Good morning everyone. We absolutely nailed the call from yesterday where we expected Price to come back into the Ferbity gap and then to dump from that point onwards. In the event that we sweep these relatively highs at around the hours between 8 to 10am, we're going to be looking for Price to give a short term time frame. Right. Meaning the five minute chart to start breaking lower and then we're going to take that trade down to 119,600 or potentially lower. Based on the targets that I've set before, I think it was 118 400. So that's going to be the intraday target for today. Little did we know that we would get China Tariff news and that would dump the market by this much. Now currently, what happened overnight is the biggest liquidation event in all of crypto history and $9.4 billion of longs getting liquidated in this one move right here. And to the question to answer in this video is, is the ball run over? Do we still have room to go up? Is this just one of those liquidation events that is meant to shake out the weekends, shake out the people that did not take profit, shake out the people that are over leveraged so that we can continue to go higher from this point onwards? Because that's been the pattern that has repeated throughout past bull runs. But we haven't quite seen that during this bull run. In this video, I'm going to give you the medium term to potentially long term outlook on Bitcoin and the overall crypto markets. Do we still have an old season or. Yeah, again, is everything over? So anyways, let's get into it now to kick things off. I know that this has been a much bigger move than, you know, anybody has anticipated. Now granted I called the top yesterday and I wasn't quite expecting Price to go this far. But if there's one thing for certain, it's that in my opinion, everyone on Twitter is completely overreacting right now. If you just go on X right now, you will see that on every single timeline. Everything that anybody is posting about right now is, oh man, this is over. I just lost everything. You know, it's time to sell everything and walk out. And people calling like, yeah, called the top man, I called the top. So one thing's for sure is that if you take a look at Price action, actually, if you look, one thing's for sure, if you just take a step back from the emotions real quick, take a step back from, you know, whatever the news event was, whether you blame Trump or not, Whatever price action's decent, like nothing's changed on the higher time frame. And the reason why I say that is that. Well, first of all, let's start off on the daily chart. We did not get a daily cab close underneath this right here, which is very important because if you had closed below $109,000, this would be what is known as a change in state of delivery, which means that price will have entered into a state of bearish order flow. Now, I know that sounds like a mouthful, but just understand that bullish order flow means that bullish PDAs and bullish order blocks are being respected. And usually you anticipate the market to form higher highs and higher lows. In this case, now granted. Now one thing to note is that order flow is not market structure, although they are kind of interlinked, but they are still different. And so without this daily bullish candle close, you can can see that even though we went quite low, like we went all the way down to 104,000, even close to $100,000, the fact that we did not close below means two things. One is that there is sufficient market interest in, you know, maintaining price above these levels, meaning there are interested buyers down at these low prices here. Otherwise price wouldn't have rebounded the way that it did. Now, the second thing is that without that candle close, it means that everyone that has been going long since like three, four months ago, like late June, potentially even early June, or just potentially even early May, like, they would have been in profit during this entire time with only just a few days where price came back to the entry. In the event that those people did not take profit, their, you know, leveraged positions would just continue to pile up and, you know, adding to open interest. And right now, all of them, well, or at least a good portion of them, have been swept out, you know, understanding the liquidation numbers. And so essentially what I'm trying to say here is that a lot of the liquidity has been swept out, right? A lot of the dumb money that did not take profit, they've been swept up. All right, keep this in mind as we move on to the next point. Now, the other party at play here are the people that are just completely over leveraged. People that are on really high leveraged. They don't know what they're doing. They don't have a strategy that may be new to the markets. Guess what? They're also wiped out. Leads me to the final port. This is, in my opinion, a little shakeout in past bull markets. If you take a look at 2017 and if you take a look at 2021 and where you will notice a very clear trend here in those past events. You know, every two to three months we get some sort of a liquidation event, right? And back then everyone was treating it like just a normal day in a bull run because this is what's needed, right? In order for the markets to go higher, you need to wipe out the weekends. And so far during this bull run, we haven't really quite got that right. Most of the dumps on bitcoin have been like really slow, choppy retracements where you can tell like, it's not one of those big liquidation events. It's not one of those events where everyone loses at the same time. It's one of those like, oh yeah, you know, I can. I can reasonably see a retracement incoming right now. And that's been the trend during this fallout right from here to here. It's. It took like what, mid of March to mid of September to complete this retracement. And then over here, once you form this new high, it's the start like late January and it lasts all the way till like mid April. This time you have just completed going from 122,000, dropping almost $20,000 in the course of a few hours this time around have went from $122,000 down to 102, like a drop of $20,000 in a matter of few hours. Of course, we haven't seen this much in this cycle, but this is in all part of Boran. And I'm not trying to be like a mega bull here. I'm not trying to, you know, be unreasonably optimistic here. But the truth is, market structure has not changed. Order flow has not changed. If anything we have just got a liquidity sweep followed by a liquidation event that was triggered by a news event. Like, no, it's not exactly news, but it was just a Tweet like, hey, China's we're going to impose 100% tariffs on China. Which, you know, nobody could have predicted that this would have dropped at this time and nobody would have predicted that this piece of information would have led to the market dropping by ink000 and hundreds of billions of dollars wiped out across the market on bitcoin, on altcoins and whatever. But the point I'm getting at here is that this is not a typical. Like, this is not a sign that hey, bull run's over. Like, you can speculate as much as you want. There are people that have speculated all throughout this cycle, oh, yeah, this would have been the top. Oh, yeah, this is the top. Oh, yeah, this is the top. Oh, this is the top. Like, the truth is, nobody knows. And I have a pretty good track record publicly on YouTube. Like, I've been making videos since February, making a video daily, calling a trade on an intraday perspective. And I'm right about 80% of the time. Like, even I don't claim to know where the top is. Like, if you ask me right now, like, I wouldn't know. Like, again, we trade what the market tells us. And that's a big difference, I think, which is, you know, there is what you think you know, should happen in the markets, let's say. Oh, yeah, you know, bitcoin's definitely going to top here. And then there's what the market is actually happening. And then there is what the market is actually doing. And if your best interests in, you know, this market is to make money, ideally you want to be trading what the market is doing rather than what you think should happen. And in this case, heck, forget the daily chart. Let's go into the weekly. Does this look bearish to you? I would think so. Right? You have high highs, high lows. You have bullish order flow. You have bullish order flow being respected. If anything, right now, you again swept out some key liquidity points before, who knows, by the end of tomorrow, you know, Sunday, you may as well. You may very well see price has already recovered a decent amount. Do I think that's going to happen? I don't think so. But at the same time, I don't know. Right. It's not my job as a trader to predict the next move that happens. What's important is simply preparing, you know, macking out a couple of scenarios that are likely, and it's simply reading and reappping from that point onwards. But one thing's for sure, guys, I just wanted to give you a little bit of assurance, give you my two cents on what I think the markets are at at the moment. Of course, I don't claim to know everything. Like, I may have had a pretty good track record, but again, I could be wrong. Like, my next few trades could be wrong, my next few calls could be wrong. It's happened before. But the key thing here is I'm just trying to give you the facts, right? The fact that, you know, this is a liquidation event that we haven't seen before. We're still very much in bullish market structure. We're still very much in a bull run. So again, could just be a liquidation event where, you know, you wipe out some, you know, profits and you just get some liquidations, shake some people aftermarket, reset the open interest, reset the funding rates, and off you go again. There's one thing that I kind of see as a silver lining is the, the take is the stance of the Federal Reserve at the moment. They are very much looking to cut the interest rates throughout this month, throughout next month, or at least at least two times right from now until the end of the year. And there's one thing you need to understand about how your bull markets for risk on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and what like Bitcoin and Ethereum and whatnot, they thrive in conditions where, you know, liquidity is abundant. And for liquidity to be abundant, you need interest rates to be low. This is the first time in two to three years where the Fed has actively been cutting rates. If anything, the macro conditions are only going to get better from here. Again, unless market structure and order flow shifts, which in this case would be a solid and close underneath $108,000. All that's happening right now is just people panicking, just people overreacting to what's happening in the market. And ideally not one of those people. But anyways, feel free to follow me on Twitter at Underscore the art of crypto. If there are any updates to this situation or if there are any trades that I am taking in these, you know, troubling times, I will be posting them onto Twitter. But otherwise I'm going to go enjoy my weekend and try.