MEGA short opportunity for bitcoin & GBP today (don't miss this!)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. The way that the market moved yesterday sets us up perfectly for a potential Bitcoin mega short. I'm going to break it all down in this video. Like, we've been waiting all week for this, and like, if there's one video that you're not going to want to miss, it's going to be this one. But before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan, and I've been making these videos for the better part of the last year and a half, and I've been publicly tracking the win rate of these calls that I'm making on YouTube because so many people out there, they make calls, but they never have any sort of transparency or any sort of accountability. And they just say whatever they want, hype people up, get the degens in, and cause everyone to lose money. I'm trying to change that. So yeah, so far we've got about a 70-80% win rate. So I'd say I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So if you're new here, you're probably in the right place. Shout out to all of you from yesterday who dropped comments left, right, and center. Like, it really does warm my heart reading through all the comments. And like, just understand that I've read through all of them, and I read through all the comments every day. So really appreciate the support. But without any further ado, let's get into the Bitcoin daily setup first because like, yeah, you know, let's keep the video, let's keep it the main point, right? Now to kick things off, first things first, right? We're finally getting that reaction off of this bearish fair value gap from the weekly chart. This is the setup that I was talking about earlier this week where I was telling you, hey, just because you have a bullish daily bias does— sorry, a bullish weekly bias does not mean that you want to be looking for longs because, well, if I just zoom out a little bit, not only is the recent price action incredibly bearish, but the overall price action is incredibly bearish where that is this is your major market structure on the weekly chart. And for the most part, you are having a lower low and a lower high at the moment. And so market structure is bearish. The trend is bearish. And when the trend is bearish, the last thing you should think about doing is buying the dip or trying to catch the bottom or trying to find the reversal. Like, look, as much as I would love for Bitcoin and crypto to just start, you know, bouncing back right away because, well, I'm a crypto bro, I have bags, obviously I would hate to see my bags lose value by the day. But still, you've got, like, as a trader, you've got to separate yourself from, you know, the investor mindset, right? As a trader, your success is determined solely by your ability to be able to objectively read what the market is telling you. So right now, because it's bearish, what is the correct, like, let me, quiz time, right? Quiz time. What is the correct thing that you should be doing when the market is in downtrend? Like, answer A, catch the bottom. Answer B, try to buy the dip. Answer C, DCA, answer D, go with the trend and sell low and buy back lower. Exactly, sell low, buy back lower. Because when like the trend is your friend as a trader, right? If you're in an uptrend, it doesn't matter how high the market is, you continue to buy high and to sell higher. I look like even if I were to just like, let's not use the obvious example of a crypto bull run where things go much higher than, you know, everyone anticipates early on. Let's take a look at the stock market, right? Take a look at NASDAQ. Whoa, back then we were at $20,000 and that was like the all-time high and people were like, oh, this retracement, blah, blah, blah. 'Oh, the Nasdaq's over. Oh yeah, we're going into a bear market.' Yeah, whatever. Look at the moment you come back into an uptrend and you kind of like go back to the all-time highs. Anyone that just kind of like, 'Oh, Nasdaq is too expensive now. I'm going too short now because it is too expensive.' Look at where they ended up because they would have missed out on this entire move right here. So it's the same thing with Bitcoin, the same thing with every chart in general. It's like if the trend is bearish, you sell. If the trend is bullish, you buy. And so far, because the trend is bearish, this is the exact thing that led me to believe that just because you had a bullish weekly close does not mean that you're going to be anticipating some sort of an up move. Because most likely you're going to come into this fair value gap, and most likely, I did already mention this as well, Tuesday or Wednesday you're going to get that big drop. And even in yesterday's video, Clarence, if you can pull the receipts, like, or even if you can't pull the receipts, like, it's right there in yesterday's video. I just don't know exactly when I said it. In terms of the daily, Here's how that applies, and I promise you this is all going to come together. Because we're bearish on the weekly, we already expected that Monday and Tuesday are just going to be some sort of a setup day for what is eventually going to come later during FOMC. We've already understood that, okay, when you have FOMC and if you do not have news on Mondays and Tuesdays, then the true move is likely only going to come on Wednesday. But yesterday I did mention that if we did not have a trade on Bitcoin, but as long as we closed bearish for the day, that would give us an opportunity to dive into a mega move for Thursday. Because like, again, Monday, Tuesday. Monday up, Tuesday kind of up, kind of down. That is the setup days. And on Wednesday, you start getting the true move. Thursday, you get continuation. And potentially Friday, you either get a massive acceleration of, you know, whatever downtrend or whatever trend that is, or you get a parabolic reversal. Chances are, I think we're going to get more of an acceleration rather than a parabolic reversal. In fact, we might even just range around because if you take a look at news, we don't really have news tomorrow. Neither do we have news today. We do have news later during, for GBP though. So I am going to give a quick mention to GBP before, we end off this video. But yeah, overall, in terms of the daily chart, we are getting rejected exactly at the place that we are anticipating it to get rejected. We have a bearish daily bias, which also means— in fact, the weekly bias is bearish. Like, everything's bearish. So we are going to be looking for shorts for the most part. So let's go down into the 1-hour chart to see if the 1-hour chart also confirms this. And by the way, like, shout out to everyone who ended up taking this trade. Just to give you a breakdown, right, this is a perfect example of The exact setup that I kind of mentioned yesterday that I was looking for, right? We would want to see price not only give a continuation of bearish order flow, but around the New York morning session, we finally got that bearish fair value gap. Price ended up coming back into the fair value gap, and in the 5-minute, it started showing signs that it was going to the downside. And essentially, that was the plan. And I was really patient waiting for all of the conditions to be met for the plan to come true. And once they were met, I simply executed the plan, right? If you've ever heard the saying before, plan the trade, trade the plan. That's exactly what I did, but it just didn't end up playing out because Trump came out. Like, it doesn't actually matter what the reason is. It didn't end up playing out, and that is fine. The thing about A+ setups, or the thing about like stacking the deck in your favor, is that it massively increases the chance that you will win the trade, but it does not guarantee that you will win the trade. It only guarantees that it increases your chances. And that's something I think a lot of beginners struggle to understand, which is like trading is a probabilistic game. Just because you do everything right does not mean that you will 100% win the trade. And just because you do everything wrong does not mean that you will lose the trade. Sometimes you do everything wrong and you still win. That's kind of like beginner's luck or whatever you want to call it. So there is nothing wrong, like in terms of the things that we can control, like structurally speaking, objectively speaking, I don't know how you want to describe this. There's nothing wrong with the trade yesterday other than the fact that it was a loss. I've already logged on Twitter, right? If you look back at yesterday's video, that was 3313, that was 3314. So yeah, but with that said, another interesting thing that happened is Exactly, kind of like scenario 3 that I talked about from yesterday. I don't know if you guys remember, but you know, this being the value area, the premium is actually above the value area and the discount's below the value area. So I did mention like just because price retraces back into the order block doesn't mean that, you know, that would be the ideal kind of like short zone. More so if price goes above the value area, sweeps out the relative equal highs, that would be the ideal, you know, kind of entry. We did actually get that. Unfortunately, this happened at 12:00 PM, which is outside of the kill zone, which is not the time that we would be looking to trade. But yesterday was also news Tuesday, which means the ideal trading window for yesterday was 1 PM to 3 PM. And look at exactly what happened. Like, when I tell you guys the market is manipulated, I'm not making it up. Like, heck, it might not be, but at the very least, we have enough proof, or like enough of a body of evidence, good, recorded and documented over the last year and a half to be able to say like, okay, these types of moves and these types of like setups and manipulations, they happen exactly when we would expect them to happen, right? Which, if you guys recall from yesterday, I said 1 PM to 3 PM, that's when you want to expect the true move to happen. And kaboom, that is when it happened. So yeah, pretty interesting that, you know, the overall plan yesterday was, you know, solid. I didn't trade this though because I'm in Asia and this is basically happening at like 3, 4 AM my time. So it's not like I was going to do anything about this idea. But I know for a fact that I will be doing something about this today. So at the moment, price in terms of the 1-hourly chart is very clearly bearish. In terms of the order flow, you are also very clearly bearish. Let me just remove a couple of things from yesterday's trade. In fact, I might even keep it and do a bit of trade breakdown breakdown. The last time, the most recent trade breakdown, if you guys didn't watch it, highly recommend you do. Like Clarence, link it somewhere here. I think you guys, a lot of you like kind of voiced your, like dropped a comment and said that, you know, more of this please. And you guys really appreciated that. So maybe I might leave this here and, you know, do a proper trade breakdown. But in today's, like obviously clearly very bearish order flow. This is your undeniable CSD. Not only that, but you came back into that CSD line and you continue to make a new low. So right now you have a bearish order block. And I think there are only two ways that this ends up playing out today. The first of which is that this is actually a weak high. On the 1-hourly chart. So depending on the time, like by the time you watch this video, there are only two things that are likely. One is that price starts breaking down from this point onwards and you start getting 5-minute bearish order flow. If you see this and once you get into that 7 to 10 AM kind of like New York morning kill zone window, this is enough for you to just dive into a trade towards the short side. I'm going to share targets later. Or if you are, by the time you watch this video, you might sweep out above, like sweep these highs basically, because this is a weak high. A weak high is a high that does not sweep prior liquidity. If you take a look here, there is no previous swing low that, sorry, previous swing high that it swept. So weak highs tend to be less protected compared to strong highs. So in the event that you sweep it out and then you get that kind of like 5-minute indication towards the downside, that is also very much valid. I cannot predict which one is going to happen. All I can do is kind of map out a couple of high probability outcomes for you. And in fact, like I've said this time and time again before, but it's not really my job to predict the market. It's not the job of any trader to predict the market. Like I don't have an opinion about the market. I just trade my system. If the market gives me price action in a way that matches all of the criteria of my system, then I'm going to trade that. That's it. I don't really care if the market goes up or down. So that is going to be the setup. Let me just go into the 5-minute chart just to double confirm if this is looking good. So the possible only kind of like invalidation that I would see in terms of today— oh, and by the way, I just realized one other thing. If you do sweep out above these highs, you're going to come straight into this big bearish order block over here. So that's going to be pretty interesting for, you know, Like, again, this is going to be a very straightforward move. And if you get that, then this is going to be your target number one. Like, if you take a trade somewhere around here, here, this is definitely going to be minimum 2R. But outside of that, the kind of like invalidation for this is you get a candle close above this level right here, which is, you know, quite obvious, uh, quite possible actually, that level being 64,650. Once you get a candle close above there and you start, you know, just showing 5-minute bullish order flow towards the upside, then yeah, clearly the market is not giving you any indication that it wants to come down, in which case we're just going to not trade for today. But for now, I'm definitely going to be looking for whatever I just described. And if there are any updates, I will post them on X, which by the way, if I do take any trades, I'm going to be calling them on X. It's not like I'm going to be, you know, gating this behind some signals groups or whatever. The only things I don't really call as much is like yesterday I was on a bootcamp call, which by the way, like I run every week, I run a couple of calls just live trading the markets with all of my students. Just so once you understand the theory itself, it's important to also see how it's being executed in real time, even when, you know, in certain cases there's nothing happening for like 2 hours straight and we do nothing. That is really important to just show by example. And yeah, this was a trade that we ended up taking yesterday, and my God, what an insane move. I really wish this was like— this is one of them where I really wish I would have just kept the trade open overnight. I was happy with my 2R, but this would have easily been— what is this, 20? Like, what the heck? Like, again, we tried the setup and Sorry, we trade the system and the system dictates that, you know, I take some profit at 2R. So it is what it is. Like, you can't catch them all. But anyways, I mentioned earlier that we were going to take a look at the GBP/USD. And in terms of the GBP, we have clearly very bearish daily bias, very bearish overall bias, which, by the way, just a quick mention back to that tweet that I was talking about. Remember that when Bitcoin is not giving you any quality setups, which it's not often that Bitcoin will always be giving you a quality setup. In fact, I would even say like with this system that we're using right here, if we get more than 3 A+ setups on Bitcoin or like just 3 valid setups on Bitcoin throughout the week, that's already an amazing week. Most of the time we just maybe sit around 2 and 3 is good. And if you get more than 3, it's like, whoa, what a week. So the way that you kind of overcome this, because the problem when you trade only one pair, especially if you trade only Bitcoin, is that you're going to keep looking like you're going to come on every single day expecting to do something. Right? That's just how society has conditioned our brain. I'm not saying that this is something that works. It's not even something that's recommended to be successful at trading. You cannot deny that most people are conditioned based on like, all right, I'm going to clock in every day. I'm going to hop onto the charts every day and I'm going to try to take a few trades because that is work. And the problem when you only look at one chart is that even when there is nothing there, you will have a natural inclination to want to force something, to just take something just because. Like you're already here, like you've already showed up, I might as well take something. And it doesn't take a genius to understand that that is not a very profitable thing to do. So how do you overcome this then? Well, look at other charts. This is like, this system works on everything. I've tried this on everything, including meme coins, including altcoins, the NASDAQ, like futures, currencies, commodities. The only thing that I've not really tried it on, sorry, not tried it on period, and I don't think it's gonna work, is the US stock market. Because like this system kind of involves you trading at kill zones. But when you're trading the US stock market, it opens at 9:30 AM 3 AM, and that is the kill zone. And then he closes at like, what, 4 PM or something? Like, it's just a very different asset class altogether. Like, don't just trade one pair. By the way, fun fact, if you guys have never seen this video before, Clarence, I want you to drop it here. I made a, I think an hour and a half, maybe hour and 40-minute long video of like just like a full prop firm masterclass. And I'm not talking about like very surface-level information. I'm talking like pro tips on how to pass your challenges, how to scale, how to select the best prop firms, how to, what is the general strategy that you want to utilize, do's and don'ts of, you know, when it comes to prop firms. And like, it just hasn't gotten that many views. I'm pretty sure none of you have heard it before, or like the most of you watching this have not seen that video. But that is, I'm not even kidding you, one for one, one of the modules that you'll get inside my program, which means it's super in-depth and it's on YouTube for absolutely free. So check it out if you want to get into prop firms, but they're a great way to just get access to or just diversify your asset selection. But with that said, like, just talking about GBP real quick, this is having a very bearish daily bias. Not only that, but the hourly seems like it's coming into an hourly PD array right now, which is an hourly bearish fair value gap. Right now, I think the thing that I would be looking for is a break below 1.32— well, 1.33 basically, because this— once you break lower than this level, this white candle here is going to become your new bearish order block, right? Let me just map that out for you, for anyone that is still, you know, learning. That is going to become your new bearish order block. And once you get that, it's as simple as looking for a short. And obviously in terms of targets, even just targeting right here would already be great. But let's zoom out a little bit and see if there are any nearby liquidity targets. Because remember, every single time price makes some sort of movement, there is always an objective that price is targeting for. If you're bearish, there is always some sort of objective. And so far this, like, yeah, we do have a target, but this is like 130, 140 pips away. So I'm not going to say that this is going to be like brilliant. I'd just say take profit at 2R and you're going to be good. But overall, like, this is looking Like, this is setting up to be a very straightforward, very, you know, directional kind of trade. Obviously, only if you get that hourly candle close in the next, like, 3 minutes. As long as you confirm this bearish order block, then you're going to be all good to go. Plus the fact that you've already swept out the Asia high, followed by a CI stage. Yeah, in fact, this is already ready to go, to be honest. I'm personally going to definitely take this trade, especially as you approach that 7 AM news window, which, by the way, the website that I use for this is Forex Factory. And yeah, we have news at 7 AM, which means the ideal trading window for GBP for today is not going to be your typical kind of, like, New York kill zone, it's going to be between 6 AM to 8 AM New York, because the hour before news to the hour after red folder high impact news is going to be like your best, absolute best sessions. So yeah, just hopefully this gives you a bit more insight as to how the overall system works. And by the way, like we've been getting so many wins inside the programs recently. And like for us in the team, it's coming as no surprise because we know that this works. And it's not just us that knows that this works. I've proven over the last year and a half that through daily execution that this is a system that works. I've gotten also like just tens upon tens, potentially even 100+ like funded certificates now at this point from students proving that, you know, this stuff works. And so yeah, if you'd like to learn the system for yourself, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, check out a couple of videos that I recommended you. Super, super bang on. They are bangers, especially the Prop Firm one. But otherwise, I will see you guys later on X if there are any updates and probably tomorrow for the next market update. Ciao ciao.