more dumps incoming for bitcoin today (be careful)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today's Friday, today's a news day, it's the end of the week, and the good news is that most likely we're going to get some high probability setups on crypto as well as some other assets. Now specifically we're looking at USD news and Canadian news today, so I'm going to talk about USD/CAD, I'm also going to talk about Bitcoin, and of course I'm going to give you any other setups that are worth looking at. Either way, before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting these trade calls for the last year and a half. Every single day if I do take a trade, I'm going to call it on Twitter, and I've been documenting the win rate, and so far I am at around a 75% win rate. So if you're new to this channel, I'm right a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. So chances are you're in the right place. But with that said, let's get into the video and we're going to start things off on Bitcoin by talking about yesterday's trade. I hope you guys watched the video overall. Like this, this initial entry that I just kind of drew out, you know, just for fun on the video because like the setup was not yet validated at the time. But I did also kind of mention like, hey, it's not validated yet, but this is something around the lines of what you would be looking for. Well, guess what? That entry was, you know, spot on. It almost got stopped out, don't get me wrong, but this, like, the target ended up hitting today. But either way, I personally did not take that trade because I was just feeling incredibly burnt out yesterday. I don't know why, but I was just incredibly burnt out yesterday. Like, I was trying to work, I was trying my best to do something on my computer, but like, I just kept looking and staring at the chart, but like, yeah, nothing was coming. I did not feel like looking at the charts yesterday for, you know, whatever reason. And so yeah, I just kind of took the night off really. So Yeah, because I did not end up taking this trade, I'm not going to update the, you know, win rate or whatever, so don't worry. But either way, like, I hope you guys watch the video and you guys took advantage of it. Either way, let's get into the actual daily setup for today. Now, taking a look at the daily bias, obviously we're looking bearish, and so we're going to be looking for a short. And over here is still like the final target that, you know, I don't know if we're going to hit this week, but this would be the final liquidity point where this down move will be kind of concluded. What do I mean by that? Well, it has to do with a draw on liquidity. So let me just give you a quick masterclass in what is a draw on liquidity. Now, the draw on liquidity is essentially a fancy term to say that where do I think the price is going to go? Because at the end of the day, every single move in the market has some sort of objective, right? You're not just going to go up for the sake of going up. You're not going to just go down for the sake of going down. Why are you going up? Where are you going up to? And so that is the question. This is one of the ways that I was able to identify that— I don't know if you guys were watching my videos from, you know, a couple of months, like starting a couple of months to maybe 3 months ago, but I was mentioning that yes, we are in a temporary uptrend, right? At the time, everyone was really excited because we went from like $62,000 all the way up to $76,000 on Bitcoin over the span of a couple of weeks. But while I did understand that, hey, this uptrend, there is definitely something, there are definitely longs that we can take within this uptrend, we can't be too excited because overall Bitcoin was still in a huge downtrend on all of your higher timeframes, including weekly, the daily, and everything in between. And what happens when you're in a downtrend is that any sort of pumps are usually just coming back into some sort of resistance level or some sort of a retracement level before you get trend continuation towards the downside, right? That was the trend. If you guys watch my videos, feel free to drop a comment section down below. I have mentioned this multiple times throughout multiple videos over multiple weeks. And one of the reasons why I was able to identify that, well, it comes to understanding draw liquidity, right? Okay, when price is pumping, you got to think one level deeper. Where is price going to? Why? Is price pumping. And once you're able to see the reason, well, you're coming back into some sort of a higher time frame fair value gap, which is, you know, a PDRA, which is just another fancy term for a resistance level. Then you start to see that, okay, yes, Bitcoin's pumping, but like, eh, you can't really get excited over this. And so same thing here, right? As price is dumping, well, got to think, where is price going to? What is price trying to do? And immediately my eyes were drawn to this liquidity point. This one and this one. Now obviously when you have 3 liquidity points tied very closely to each other, more times than not the correct decision is to use the one that is the most extreme, right? To use the one that is the furthest away. And in this case it's going to be around here at $60,000. Now did I expect that within one single weekly candle we would be very close to $60,000? Absolutely not. But still, either way, it's Friday, it's the end of the week, and since today we're expecting some volatility thanks to news, we could reasonably anticipate that potentially, right, we could hit $60,000. By the time all is said and done, by the time this weekly candle finishes. So with that said, daily bias is bearish. We do not have yet any reason to believe that price is going to go bullish. And so we're just going to base our trades today off of that very simple fact, which is, all right, we are looking for dumps. And where are we going to look for dumps? Well, that's where we start getting into our middle timeframe. Now that we've— now that we've used the higher timeframe to determine direction, meaning, all right, today we should definitely go short. Well, now it's time to go into the middle timeframe to determine Where do we go short from? So in this, in this case here, uh, the order flow on the 1-hourly— but on the 1-hourly is very clearly bearish. And the moment I draw out these couple of boxes here, um, these are basically a couple of bearish order blocks that we're currently trading into. In fact, I'm even going to remove this for now because technically this is not yet considered a bearish order block, it's just a potential one. So this blue box right here is your bearish order block that we're going to be utilizing for today. As you can see, during the London session, which is right now, price has retraced back into that bearish order block, and currently we are looking for a continuation towards the downside. Now, because the 1-hourly order flow is already bearish and the daily bias is bearish, it also means that technically speaking, like, this where price currently is, if I just enter now and set the stop above the order block and just set my target, you know, let's say all the way down to $60,000, this is already a valid trade that you can take. Don't get me wrong. Now, the only reason why I would not necessarily take this trade is because we're kind of approaching the end of the London Kill Zone. As you can see right now, timing is at 4:30 AM and the London Kill Zone ends at 5:00 AM. :00 AM New York time. So ideally, I think today I'm going to be looking for a trade closer to New York kill zone. Now, not only am I going to look for a trade closer to the New York kill zone, I'm also going to look for a trade around news window, which, as you can see right here, it is at 8:30 AM. We have, you know, 3 pieces of USD news, and we have a couple of pieces of Canadian news. Now, this means one thing: the highest probability time window for today for trading is going to be between 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM. Why? The hour before news to the hour after news tends to be the highest probability window for this specific system.. Now, I don't know what kind of system you're using, but I assume if you're a regular viewer of this channel, you're using some kind of version of, you know, Smart Money Concepts or whatever. And in this case, this is where you would want to look for your trades. So specifically, what you're going to look for is two things. One, price could go higher from this point onwards, right? Like, price could absolutely just start going lower, in which case, absolutely fantastic. This is exactly what we're looking for. But the other thing that could happen is that price will come up to sweep a couple of liquidity points. As you can see, you have like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, basically 7, like relatively equal highs, very close to where price currently is. And you may sweep out a couple of these, so it might look something like this where you sweep out a couple of these, and as you approach that news window, you're going to get that change of state of delivery, right? Basically that lower timeframe confirmation that, okay, you've swept down the liquidity level, and now on the lower timeframe you are reversing. Once you see that at around the timing that I mentioned, that's going to be high probability scenario number 2, right? What is high probability scenario number 1, you might ask? Well, it's the one that I just described where price currently continues to just go towards the downside, which in which case, by the time you watch video, you're just going to be trading the new 5-minute order blocks that form. How are you going to do that? Well, 5-minute order blocks, like, it's a little bit self-explanatory. Like, as you continue going down, for example, as you go down, you're going to form a new order block on the 5-minute. When price retraces back into it, as you can see right there, you're just going to take it and you're going to place— like, you're just going to be trading it as though it was an order block, right? Same exact concept as what I just showed you here on the 1-hourly order block, but you're just going to apply it to the 5-minute. Now, the entire concept behind High Probability Scenario 1 is that you're trading alongside the momentum. You know that there is a very high likelihood that price is going to go down. We have also identified a high probability liquidity level, very likely to be drawn to, which is at $60,000. So if you know that price is going to go down and you kind of have an idea of where price is going to go, then wouldn't you just trade this, like continually trading this towards the downside, right? Makes sense. It's basically the entire idea of selling low and then buying back lower, which is kind of how shorting works. And a lot of people tend to have a misconception when it comes to momentum trading because if they, you know, kind of miss the initial entry, It feels like, you know, you're too late. But the reality is, if you know that price is going to go this way, and as long as price action continues to put in structure and order flow that is going down, you can just keep trading it towards the downside, right? I could realistically, like, if there are 5 bearish order blocks that form on the way to $60,000, I could take 5 separate trades on all of those order blocks, and I will make, you know, theoretically speaking, 5 to 10 times the amount of money compared to if I just take a singular trade, right? This is how it works. This is a perfectly valid strategy. And now, as for when, like, which one of these scenarios are going to happen, I don't know, I'm not trying to predict the markets either. Like right now, right here, like the setup's already valid, so I'm probably going to be taking this setup like as I finish this video. But like by the time you watch this video, I don't know what is going to happen. It's not my job to predict it either, but it is like what I'm trying to do with these videos is to give you a couple of high probability scenarios so that you're able to take advantage of them when the criteria are met. So the only thing that you don't want to see though, like the thing that will like just completely invalidate this scenario, is if you end up seeing a 1-hourly candle close, I would say above $64,200. You see an hourly candle close above this, like, yeah, you're screwed. Or even like as you go for these like couple of liquidity sweeps right here, a little warning sign would be if you were to close above the level, right, on the 1-hourly chart. If you get a 1-hourly candle close above that, yeah, I'm going to be sketchy, a little bit sketchy. But if it's just a sweep, like if it's just a wick and then you start heading towards the downside, perfect, absolutely beautiful. And like, yeah, overall the setup today is just really straightforward. The price is already going down, structure, order flow, everything. We have a very clear target.. It's your job to simply identify it, like where in that kind of like downtrend can you position yourselves into an entry. But the overall setup is super straightforward as you can see here. Now the second setup that we're going to talk about is honestly USD/CAD. So far this thing has been dumping like an absolute dump truck, no pun intended. Right now you're coming back into a bullish daily order block though, and also the daily bias is bullish, right? You're technically supposed to be looking for a long here. So by the time that news window rolls around, chances are you're going to sweep out this low And if you start seeing that, you know, 5-minute change in state of delivery towards the upside, this is going to be one of your higher probability trades for today if you're not necessarily looking for crypto. Now, because our daily bias is bullish and because we're looking for a bullish trade, it stands to reason that we don't want to see a 1-hourly candle close below 1.388. If we see that, like, the setup's just invalidated and you're no longer looking for a long on USD/CAD, which is fine. Like, when you plan— like, one of the things that I think people have a really hard time accepting is that when you have a plan and when you have specific, you know, criteria that needs to be met for that plan to kind of come into effect. Like when the criteria don't show themselves, they still find the need to force the setup. And already saying that sentence, it's like you're forcing the setup. So just because you plan in, it doesn't happen, it's perfectly okay to just let it go. Like you don't need to trade every day to make, you know, just a solid amount of money. Like a couple of days ago on a single trade within like the span of a couple of hours, like a Bitcoin trade that I took made close to $3,000. I don't know about you, but like for most people, that's enough to cover rent. That's enough to cover, you know, most costs for the month. Unless you're staying in somewhere like New York City or it's like some super stupid expensive place, which technically Seoul, South Korea is pretty expensive, but still. In that singular trade, right? It's not like, like if I tell people that, hey, I made $3,000 this week, most people are not going to assume that it's all coming from a singular trade, right? $3,000, oh, you split it up by 5 days, or you work for 5 days, so your average, the average amount of money that you make from trading each day is $600. Yes, the average. That's also not like, if you start thinking about it that way, and if you start thinking about trading in a way where, you know, you're clocking in and clocking out and, you know, getting a consistent level of pay, it's just not how it works, right? There are going to be days where the setup is super clear and everything's going to, like, all the stars are going to align. Those are the days where you take in like just go hard on the risk, right? Risk a little bit more and then you get a big payout out of it and you could not trade for the rest of the week and you'll still be fine, right? Now obviously you don't have to just take one trade a week. Obviously if you know all 5 days of the week gives you conditions where your setup is present, the environment, the market conditions and everything are absolutely aligned, absolutely go for it. Trade all 5 days in a row. But like just because I give you a plan, it does not play out. Or like it gets invalidated, means that it is perfectly fine to just walk away. Because if you try to force something, like you're essentially just asking to lose money, you know what I mean? Like we do this without even thinking, like, oh yeah, if I do this, I'm essentially just asking to lose money. And once you think about it that way, then it becomes a little bit easier, I guess, to not try to force trades. But with that said, if I do take any trades today, I'm going to post them on Twitter. I'm going to go for a nice little sunset hike later just to kind of like decompress. I have been feeling a little bit burnt out recently because of a lot of software that I've been building for the existing, you know, boot time in Blueken members. But so yeah, just going to take some time to kind of decompress, have a nice pizza. And but otherwise, if you like my trading philosophy, if you like the way that I do things, if you like the success rate, or if you've watched my videos, taken these trades and seen results for yourself, you're going to get so much more if you actually work with me and get access to all of the secret sauce. That sounds interesting to you, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, this has been a great week. I'll see you guys next week and, or maybe potentially later on X. Ciao ciao.