Most People Will Repeat These Same Mistakes With This Bitcoin ATH

What's up everyone? Bitcoin is at a new all time high. Not to say that this was surprising because we've been calling for the previous all time high to get taken out before any sort of major retracement. And that indeed happened and not surprising. Over the last three weeks we've basically been averaging around the 90% win rate on all of these public calls on YouTube and so far on the month we are. Well not on the month since February we are 56 out of 67. Because yesterday we talked about the bearish scenario and the bullish scenario for bitcoin where basically the bearish, sorry, the bullish scenario which be a break above into this F gap right here and if you close above it, then the very next candle you retrace back into it and you can turn this into inversion F gap and you can ride it higher. Yesterday right before it happened, basically at 9:26am New York I made the post and boom. I even draw out the arrow into the 5 minute F gap. Ultimately this ended up being a 4 hour trade. I did take my profits a little bit too soon. But what matters is that we got a clean high conviction trade. And, and if you guys would like more like Updates on the YouTube videos because obviously I can't be sitting here making YouTube videos all the time and also there is editing then happen before the YouTube video is posted. If you guys would like more, you know, timely updates, feel free to follow me on Twitter at Underscore the art of crypto. And yeah, you can also, you know, talk to me. For example, Milk T saw you tweet earlier, took the trade and printed where were your TP1B don't like, you know, would be good but take it at the previous all time high if you can. Anyways, back to the video. Today I'm going to give you the setup for bitcoin. We're going to talk about kind of like the overall trend and if you're new to this channel, just know that you're probably in the right place because we have been averaging around an 80% win rate since February since I publicly started tracking, you know, these public calls on YouTube. I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong and I'm going to do my best to maintain this streak. And one thing that will definitely be interesting as in the upcoming days, weeks as we re enter into quote unquote a bull market or as we get back into an alt is I would love to make more videos on altcoins. For example if you Guys, remember in last week's video, one of the last week's video I talked about Pendle hyper liquid story and Kaito and check it out, right. Pendle came into the blue box, spent basically the entire week retracing into the blue box. Right. But you did not break below. It ultimately came back up and broke the target that we set. And so Pendle played out. For this sake, we are going to update the scoreboard so this becomes 57 out of 68. And next we take a look at hyperliquid. Same story. You retrace back into it. Price goes up, hits the target. Easy, easy. We can keep repeating this for as long as we can. 69 and that would be like what, 58. 58 or 69 now IP is one of them that I think kind of failed because I drew out this blue box instead and I was like, oh, yeah, price is going to go higher. But it ended up breaking below the box that I drew. So going to take that L and that will put us at 58 out of 70. And lastly, let's look at Kaito blue box. Spend the entire week kind of like just chopping around within the blue box. Ultimately, you're pumping higher right now. And over the upcoming, you know, days or weeks, I would love to do more of these altcoin videos because currently that puts us up to. Oh, before I move on, that puts us up to 60 out of 71 trades and that is easily, I think, 60 out of 71. That puts us at an 84.5% win rate. That's absolutely ridiculous. But yeah, going to try to keep this trick going. And if you guys would like to see, you know, any analyses of other altcoins, feel free to drop it down in the comment section below. I will try my best to get to any of them that look promising and that actually, actually has a setup. Just know that the majority of them probably won't. I may go through a bunch of them together and just give you kind of like my unfiltered thoughts. But yeah, like, welcome back to all season. Welcome back to a bitcoin all time high. And let's keep the street going with today's bitcoin video and starting things out on a weekly chart. Again, super bullish. We're calling for this week to be bullish due to last week's kind of close. Initially, I was expecting this February gap to get filled first, but clearly we did not get that. And then in terms of yesterday, I was like, okay, we're currently inside a range and it would like if yesterday's candle closed bullish, that would give us much higher probability conditions on the very next day in order to trade a continuation. And that has indeed happened. And so on the daily chart we have a bullish candle close. Pretty easy here. And right now we are potentially getting some kind of over the gap forming right now. Although this will not be relevant today. Now what is relevant today is, let me just remove everything. Is that currently on the one hourly chart you have this order block right here. Just going to switch it over to order block. And on the one hourly chart you could say this is an order block. But like that'll be kind of tough to trade. So at the moment yesterday's kind of closed bullish. And so today we're looking for retracement areas for continuation. That will be the ideal setup for today. Now one thing you guys need to understand, if you are new to crypto, especially if you've never been through any of the previous cycles before, the most important thing in crypto is that when the momentum is there, you trade the momentum, you follow the direction of the momentum. It is not about, oh, Bitcoin's big, you know, very expensive and you know it's going to come back down. In reality, that is not how markets work. Now in a supermarket, you like if, let's say I start selling you this pack of Oreos here for like $20, you probably wouldn't buy it. You'd be like, that's insane. Like that's really expensive for a pack of Oreos, you wouldn't buy it. But like that's not how it works in the financial markets. Oftentimes a pack of oreos can be 50 bucks and it can still go to 100 bucks over the next six months. For example, if you study any of the previous small markets, this is how it works. And the same thing would apply here in the opposite direction. If you're in a supermarket and you see this pack of warriors for life, you'd probably be like, ah, yeah, you know, might as well take a couple. It's a good deal. And yet the financial markets don't work the same way. There are many tokens, there are many assets, there are many stocks and companies that are down like 90% from the all time high and they can continue to go down 90% from that point onwards. That's just the reality of the financial market. When the momentum is there, when the direction is there, you trade the direction. Right now this is screaming bull, like bullish, strong green price is moving up Aggressively. And so you do not try to fade this. The best way to think about when you can start, you know, fading this is to set, like predetermined conditions. In this instance, I would say, okay, this is a really strong order block at the moment. If price closes below this order block comes back up to flip it as resistance, then I may start looking for shorts. But until that happens, it's like everything is pointing towards the upside. And this is the biggest struggle that I see with like new developing traders. It's like they have an idea of what the market should look like. And instead of trading what the market's telling them, they're trading their vision of what the market is supposed to do. And that's what screws up a lot of people, right? And in this case, everything's pointing towards the upside. And so we trade it to the upside until it stops giving us upside signals and then we reverse it, right? Your job as a trader is not to predict, it is to read and react. And right now, based on what I can see, it's definitely pointing towards the upside. So just to narrow down a FE gap that I missed just now before I went on the long little rant is this F gap right here. Now, today, price may not retrace to this level before pumping. And one of the other important things to keep in mind when it comes to today is that we have news. At 9:45am we have the first piece of new SD news in the entire week. This is a rare week, by the way, where we have absolutely zero news. And like, if you take a look at next week, boom, you have news on Wednesday, you have news on Thursday, you have news on Friday. And if in, if you look at last week, we had news on like four out of the five days, right? Tuesday, that's USD. Wednesday, nothing. Thursday, you have USD. Friday, you have USD, right? And that is the typical week when you have at least two to three days of news. This week we have zero. And the importance of this is that news tends to give us a pretty good gauge on when explosive moves might happen. I always like to say this. I'm sure you guys are tired of hearing this at this point, but I'm still going to repeat it because oftentimes you guys don't need to learn more new information. You guys just need to be reminded of what is, what is it that you're actually here to do, right? Every time before taking any trade, you always have three different variables you need to consider. One is going to the upside or is it going to the downside to how far up is it going to go or how far down is it going to go? And three, is the timing right? When is this move going to happen and for how long? And that is what news gives you. It kind of removes the third variable so that like, you pretty much know that price is going to move one way or another during news. And so you can kind of remove the third variable and you can just focus on predicting the first and second one. That's what news. And that's why you want to be trading on news days. It makes things easier. This week's been a bit tougher. For example, yesterday there were like, if you guys watch yesterday's video, you saw how I was, you know, considering multiple different factors and it's like, yeah, some factors are pointing up, some factors pointing down. Do we go the higher time frame direction? Do we go the lower time frame direction? It's kind of tough, right? And that's not always the case. In fact, most days you get a pretty clear read. For example, today, this is super clear. It's just bullish on weeks where you have very little news that what I just discussed can be pretty common. Where, if you remember earlier on in the week, we basically drew out this relative equal lows. I was like, yeah, you know, these are going to get swept. Before price moves to the upside. It did not. It stopped just short of that low and started reversing. We got the direction, then we got the lower time frame. Kind of like trend. Correct. But we did not manage to hit the target. Same thing here, right. Those are relatively equal highs right there, which I called to get swept. It eventually did, but I was calling for it to get swept on the day itself. Instead, price ended up chopping around and doing absolutely nothing. This is a struggle when it comes to a non newsweek. Now, so far yesterday, as we get closer to news, I think the market's showing a really strong reaction. So today the setup is based on a one hourly chart. You have these two retracement areas to come back to and potentially this one. Right. Just marking out this order block. It's not the strongest order block, don't get me wrong, but it is still an order block. And what we're going to do is to hop onto the lower time frames to see if, if there is any details that we have missed. And we have our Asian session range. And so far, yeah, the direction is not super clear. Right, because right now you have a really volatile Asian range. Currently, London is still just within the Asian range. Now the importance of the Asian range is that usually it tends to be accumulation and you want to see either a sweep of the high if you're bearish and if you want to see and if you're bullish, you want to see a sweep of the lows before you start taking any longs at the moment. Sure. We are retracing back into an order bop. So if price currently breaks above this zone right here. Right. If price breaks above this, that will confirm a change in state of delivery. Basically right now the five minute chart is in bearish water flow, meaning bearish PD arrays are being respected. If you can break above this, come down to form a higher low, it would mean that this order block has been validated. And Asia, just like London today will be a rare day where it ends up being also accumulation. And New York will give you, you know, kind of the more volatile move. And although this isn't the best setup, this is just one scenario that we're going to talk about. The ideal setup honestly for today is to wait for the Asian alo to get swept out. That would be the one that I would personally look for. Asian low swept out. Filling in the order block, filling in the fever. The gap is such a clean setup. It has happened so many times over the last like three to four weeks that we've been making these public YouTube videos. And each and every time they have been super clean setups, they have always played out. This essentially plays into the idea that there are a lot of people that jumped into the market today that and everyone that had gone into any point here would be in profit at the moment. And here's the other thing you need to think about. When people are setting the stop losses where they usually setting it at, usually underneath swing lows, if they are long, which means that if swing lows gets taken out, plus filling in the smart money kind of zones in this case, that will be the further gap. There will be also the order block while stopping out all of the retail traders. You can see where I'm getting at here. This is classic manipulation. And look for this to happen sometime during the New York morning. Given that we have News today at 9:45am look for this to happen anywhere either between 8:30am to 9:30 if you see this and if price starts shooting upwards, that will be the setup for today where you have Asia accumulation, New York morning manipulation and then probably a distribution move going into like New York late morning as well as the New York afternoon session. Now the other possibility is that if you take a Look at the a, the daily chart. At the moment, yesterday's candle was pretty volatile and prices tend to move. And whenever you get like a really volatile candle, the next day could be a little less volatile. Now, the other possibility is that Price will actually sweep this out and we will get that reversal move. But instead of targeting the current daily high, we may just chop around for the rest of the day. That is also a possibility. If that happens, just understand that. Read the markets. Depending on where you're at, when you get to the New York Lunch Hour. New York Lunch Hour is kind of like when everyone takes break and, you know, things start to chill a bit. You know, if you have a pretty volatile move, let's say something like this prior to the New York lunch, then you can take advantage of this opportunity to basically flip like Price or flip this bearish order block into potentially a bullish order block. And you can ride a higher move during the New York Lunch hour or perhaps the New York afternoon session. But in general, that would be my ideal setup. Now let's take a look at one last order setup. Because this is also a possibility. It's always good to prepare for multiple scenarios. That's kind of like my job here. It's not necessarily telling you, hey, you know, this is going to happen, it will happen like this. It's more of like preparing you for whatever scenario happens. And I'm going to give you the conditions that would make, you know, that would validate those scenarios. And most importantly is what to do when you see those scenarios. For example, yesterday, that bullish scenario I taught you guys, hey, if everybody gap, if you break above it, come down, flip it into an inversion of every gap and you can ride it higher. That's exactly what happened. So this is what you guys are here in the channel for, and this is what I'm giving you. Now. The last setup that could be possible is that Price just starts shooting up from this point onwards, basically turning this block right here into a bullish order block. If this happens sometime during, if you see this happen during the 8am sorry, 8:30am to 9:30am then your setup for today is going to just be to flip this into. Not flip this. It'll be a bullish order block support zone. You're going to take a trade somewhere within this block right here. Set your target at the current daily high or at an expansion if you would like to. And the way that you come up with expansion is to, as of the current time that I'm recording this video, this low is still forming. But wherever that low forms, you draw a fit from here to here and you look for a negative 0.5 expansion. That can be your TP2 and a negative one is a good spot to exit the whole position. At least that is what I do based on the premises of my system. The only thing I want you guys to understand is that everything is pointing towards the upside at the moment. Please do not be one of those guys that think like, oh, bitcoin's too expensive. Oh, you know, for whatever reason, this is the difference between trading what the market's trying to tell you and trading what you want to see. Sure, you may not believe in bitcoin. Sure, you may not believe that certain cryptocurrencies deserve to be at the market cap. They're that they're at. And yet this is what the market's giving you. And you've got to, if you want to be successful as a trader, you've got to keep an open mind, be adaptable, be flexible, and most importantly, like, don't be stubborn. The market's trying to tell you something, open your ears and listen. It's one of the biggest lessons that I've had to learn over the years and something that has helped me out a ton in my trading. But otherwise, if you enjoy these analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto, make sure you subscribe because I'm coming to you with daily videos during the weekdays. And if you would like to work with me one on one to get funded and to go full time into trading, yes, one on one me. You then click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, guys, see you in the next one.