The best trade for bitcoin this week (watch for this!)
In this solo YouTube vlog, Xuan (The Art of Crypto) opens with a reminder about a $25,000 giveaway and a live Q&A call, then pivots to a deep dive into his trading philosophy and the current Bitcoin market conditions. He explains that the past week has been a low‑volatility, $3,000‑wide range, which hampers his trend‑following system, leading him to adopt a more selective, cautious approach and warn viewers against overtrading. Xuan emphasizes the importance of mental models, execution discipline, and accepting periods of lower performance when the market is range‑bound. He briefly markets his Bootcamp program, positioning it for traders who already understand technical analysis but struggle with execution. The core of the video is a detailed Bitcoin trade setup: bullish bias on daily and 1‑hour charts, a bullish order block forming on the daily, two price targets ($65,600 realistic, $67,000 aspirational), a bearish flip level at $63,800 as a reversal signal, and an optimal trade window of 7‑10 AM New York time. He stresses risk management, partial profit taking, and the misconception that “high price = too late.” Finally, he reminds viewers that trade updates will be posted on X, encourages participation in the giveaway, and signs off.
Chapters
What's good guys, before I get into the video, just a reminder that today is the last day for you to participate in the $25,000 giveaway. This is the biggest giveaway that we've ever done, and I'm going to be announcing the winners tomorrow. If you were thinking about joining the giveaway, like please make sure you do it today. You literally have nothing to lose. I would like you to click the first link in the description box below just to find out more about it. And even if you're not planning to take the time to submit like a super serious entry, it's still going to be worthwhile for you just to join the call tomorrow because for 2 to 3 hours straight, I'm going to be delivering a lot of alpha. Just through like a Q&A call format. So basically I'm going to be announcing the winners tomorrow on live call, but besides announcing the winner, like if you've joined any of my Q&A calls before, you know this is where we get real deep into specific trading issues. If you've always wanted to ask me a question or just resolve a problem that you're having, that's the perfect place to do it. But yeah, the link will only be available once you participate in the giveaway and like you'll see it at the end. But either way, like again, you have nothing to lose, just join in and stand a chance to win like $25,000. Now with that out of the way, let's finally get into the video. Just right before I do though, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been making these daily trade calls for the last year and a half or so, and I publicly documented the success rate. And so far I'm at about a 78% win rate. So if you're here, just understand that you're probably at the right place because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. So anyways, I'm going to give you the Bitcoin trade setup for today. And one of the things that I will first kind of just to set the stage is the fact that this week has been absolutely horrendous for Bitcoin trading in general. I think I've only taken one or two trades and one One of them ended up being breakeven and the other one ended up being a loss, although it's a very small loss. Now, the reason why this is happening is because the market is very much in a range at the moment. If you just take a look at the price action that we've had from the entirety of this week so far, we have gone from this low to this high, and then we've been fluctuating in between these two levels ever since without actually, you know, targeting and taking out one of these levels. So not only are we in a range, but we're in a range with very little volatility. Now, from the start of the week to the end of the week right now, we are only hovering at around $3,000., right from the low to the high. So by major accounts, this is a very choppy week. And when it comes to weeks like this, my system tends to struggle because, not because it sucks, because my system is what you would like to call a trend trading system, which basically means that when the market is moving aggressively up or down, this is when the system thrives. And the amount of money that we tend to make on, you know, these moves and how easily we tend to be able to achieve this almost looks funny or just, it just looks absurd to, you know, third-party observer. But because we're optimizing for those types of moves, it's also perfectly normal to expect that when the market is in a range, we will tend to struggle. And so the way that I tend to operate when, you know, I realize that, you know, hey, we might be ranging here is twofold. One is I'm going to be a lot more selective and I'm going to be a lot more cautious about my trades that I do take, right? Understanding that we're in a range, I'm not going to just jump in as though we are clearly in a trend right now and I'm just like, yeah, Rambo, yeah, let's take a bunch of trades. That is how you end up you know, just losing money. And in fact, this is proven, which by the way, to everyone who submitted an entry into the giveaway, I've actually read quite a few of your entries. And I think the problem that comes up the most often so far, just based on the 200 entries or so that I've read, is that a lot of you struggle with overtrading, which basically means that you are taking trades even though you're not supposed to. So early on I mentioned that the first thing that we do when we identify that we're in a range is to be more cautious and more selective so that we don't end up taking subpar trades. But the second one is also, this helps more also the mental side of things, which is accepting that you are going to have a period of just lower performance in general, right? At least as long for the range lasts. Now, again, if you are trading a range trading system, for example, your system is going to struggle when the market goes into a trend. It's perfectly normal. There is no system in the world that is going to optimize for both, because the truth is, when you optimize for both, you tend to optimize for nothing. It's the same thing that we kind of optimize for with Bootcamp as well. It's like, yes, we could totally create this program to, you know, tailor to the absolute beginner that has no idea how to even, you know, open up an exchange. But we choose not to. We optimize for the people that are already trading and clearly they know that they're struggling, but they may not know what the problem is, or maybe they may know what the problem is, but either way they're already trading, right? It's not that they're completely unfamiliar to technical analysis, but we optimize it for the people that are struggling with execution, right? Turning information into just execution. And so as a result of that, you know, we push away a lot of the beginners, which, you know, is fine because that's what we optimize towards. But if we were to just go like, hey man, bootcamp for everyone, If you want to learn how to trade, then, you know, join in. Well, then there are two things that's going to happen, right? A, you, the customer, is going to get a much more subpar result because you might be way further ahead than, you know, a lot of the modules are meant to be. Or B, you're just not going to be interested because I'm just going to sound like a generic cookie-cutter, you know, another trading guru that's kind of promising the world. But no, again, we solve execution, right? This is what we specialize in. So if you have been trading or if you have been watching these videos and you haven't been getting results, then feel free to consider booking a call with Bootcamp, which you will see as the second link in the description box below. What I just said resonates with you, this is what we specialize in. We can take you from where you are now and within 90 days, like, you can be trading full-time and just making a very decent living out of this. But sales pitch aside, it's again, right, there is no system that's going to optimize for both scenarios at the same time. So during these times, I just accept that I'm going to get slightly lower performance or, and that can kind of come in the way of like, hey, slightly less entries. For example, this entire week so far, I've taken 2 entries in like total. And secondly, even when I do get the entries, I'm going to expect that I'm not going to get as high of a win rate, which again is perfectly normal. And when you kind of expect this, you can kind of let go of that attachment to be like, okay, yeah, I'm spending some time trading today, so I need to make money or I need to take a trade. Or there are days where you don't trade and those days are when, you know, whatever you're looking for in terms of your system is just not there and it's perfectly fine to not trade. But with that out of the way, like, you know, I spent basically the first, like, I don't know, 5 or 8 minutes of this video just kind of rambling on about some lessons, but I also feel like this is super important. It may not be, you know, at this point, like if you're still sticking around, I think a lot of the, you know, degen bros are just looking for signals, guys. They've already left. So if you're still here, like congrats, because what you've just listened to and the reason why I always talk more about these mental models and, you know, how to think about the markets is because this is what's going to get you over the finish line, right? This is what's going to get you over the hump. It's not necessarily just, oh yeah, you're coming for the signals. All right. What if I stop making videos? Well, what if your favorite creator stops making videos or starts posting on Twitter or whatever? Are you going to rely your entire livelihood on these other people, you know, posting their trades? It's fair enough to do for a while, but ideally, as you are, you know, as you're kind of copying the signals and as you are kind of watching these analyses, I want you to also be able to learn how to apply this for yourself. I can tell you for one thing for certain is that with all of our students so far, it's almost never the technicals that you are missing. It's almost always the right models to think about the market. It's always the mental models, the frameworks, and What— and this is why I spend so much time in almost every video, like, just educating you on this. But with that out of the way though, just kicking this off on the daily chart, we are looking at a bullish daily bias. So we are going to be looking for longs today. Now, is this going to be the absolute best trading day? To be seen. Now, the moment we go down into the 1-hourly chart though, this is when it starts looking more promising. And honestly, today so far has been, you know, just a much more clear day as compared to basically every other day for this week. Well, the reason being is that you're now very clearly bullish in order flow. Your daily bias is bullish and you are leaving behind, um, what I can only assume to be a bullish order block. By the time this candle closes here in the next 37 minutes, this is going to be a bullish order block that you can take advantage of just to continue following price towards the upside. Basically, this entire week we have been in a range, and technically we are still in a range, but the fact that this today is basically like the first move that we've gotten all week that actually aligns with the weekly bias, which is bullish, And daily bias is also bullish. In terms of the 1-hourly bias, it is also bullish. I think this is one of those days where we finally get a clear-cut kind of answer to, you know, all right, where is Bitcoin going to head to this week? And for now, I'm going to set two targets. I don't think $67,000 is going to be very realistic for today, but I do think that $65,600 is going to be very realistic. So there are two things that can happen here. One is you get a confirmed kind of change of state delivery above this level. You retrace back in here and you start heading towards the upside. Feel free to take some partials over here as well because this is technically technically the weekly range, right? This was the Monday high and low. So usually once you take out the Monday high, if the market does want to continue staying in a range, you can actually just reverse from this point onwards. So it's smart to just take slight partials from near this level, at least you secure some profit. But otherwise I'm going to be aiming for $65,600 just based on how everything is aligning up so far in terms of the weekly, the daily, and the 1-hourly. That also leads me on to another thing, which is like today, like just remember we are still within range, which means that there is a likelihood that you take out the range high and then you start going to the downside. Heck, even from here, right? We actually got bamboozled the other day where, you know, price reached all the way down here. You know, you would have expected price to actually just hit this target. And when we were on a short that day on Wednesday, right, we went short and this is the trade that I ended up getting stopped out breakeven. You would have expected that price would have just made that tiny little move to take that out. But no, apparently not. So in the event that this just ends up being a reversal and this just ends up being like, you know, just again, a full-on range trade, the signal that you want to watch for is going to be a candle close on the 1-hourly chart on $63,800. Now, if you do get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart here, that means this is very likely going to flip into a bearish resistance zone for price to actually dump from rather than find support. So by the time you watch this video, like, you're going to get full kind of like information here. Price will have either closed above and actually is within the order block so far. And if you see, you know, indication that price is going to head to the upside, that's going to be the trade that you end up taking. Just a reminder that today we are still operating without news, which means that the ideal time that you're going to be taking these trades is literally just going to be between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. And so So yeah, by the time you watch this video, you're going to be looking for this basically. And like, just as an example, even if I were to just use the 1-hourly order block, this is easily going to be a 2R trade and potentially even more. So yeah, and for anyone that is looking at this and going like, oh, but it's already at range highs, right? You're already at resistance and you're already, you know, price has already pumped so much, you know, doesn't it feel dangerous getting in? Well, that's also a very common misconception that a lot of traders tend to have because like Society conditions us to believe that, okay, if the price of something is really high relative to just, I don't know, like 5 days ago, like for example, Apple, right? They raised their prices by like 20% across the board. And some people, including myself, I would have looked at that, ah, you know, it's so expensive. But the market is very different from society, right? The financial markets, there is no kind of like fixed price, right? There's no fair value when it comes to any of these assets that we're looking at, including stocks and even indices and like the NASDAQ and S&P or whatever. So essentially what I'm trying to say here is that there is no conception of what is fair, cheap and expensive. Instead of looking at it and thinking about it in terms of like, oh, it's already pumped so much, so I'm too late. Well, think back to the amount of times throughout a crypto bull run or a crypto bear market where you expect that Bitcoin could go all the way up to like where the moment, you know, let's say Bitcoin hit an all-time high, you're like, okay, that's over, right? The bull run's over, Bitcoin's too expensive, I'm not going to buy in. Just to realize 12 months later that Bitcoin's now trading at 3 times the price and you would have missed out on all of that. And in terms of the bear market as well, right? Bitcoin goes down 50%, you're like, oh yeah, great, great price. This is very cheap compared to, you know, just a few months ago, just to realize that 12 months later you're down another 50% from where you bought in from. So there is no concept of fair value in the markets. The best thing that I found works, and in fact, some of the best trades that we've ever had just across the last year and a half where I've been publicly making these videos and like documenting and calling every single trade on social media are the momentum trades. They're the ones where price is already pumping, you get full confirmation that, okay, price is already high and clearly bullish. We just continue to buy high and sell higher and just ride the wave, right? The train's already moving. The train's already left the station. Yes, but you can also hop on the train as it's moving and boom, get off at some point. And like, trust me, if you've never given this a try, it's a lot less risky than you think. It's just how trend trading works. The majority of the time when we look to, you know, buy low and sell high, it's a lot to do with range trading, which again is a very profitable strategy, but that's not the strategy that we're deploying here. Here. So just want to be clear on that. Either way, if there are— now, if I do get into any trades for today, I'm definitely going to be posting them on X. As you already know, this is where I am posting all of my trade setups. It's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. Just a reminder to take part in the giveaway. Again, it's nothing to lose. It's the biggest one that we've done. I just really wanted to help give back to the community and, you know, help you guys out whenever I can. But with that out of the way though, hoping that next week is going to be a better week for trading. And otherwise, I'll see you guys tonight and see you guys tomorrow during the Q&A call. Ciao ciao!
