the BEST trade for bitcoin today (just be VERY cautious!)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin today. And guys, I really hope you watched the video from yesterday because wow, what an absolutely picture-perfect move that we ended up calling. We looked for the breakdown below this 1-hourly order block right here, retrace between the hours of 7 to 10 AM, and off you go. Hopefully we're gonna get a similar result today just like yesterday. But before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I make right here on YouTube, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. All that means is that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. And also recently we launched a highlight channel. I basically do a ton of coaching calls and a lot of one-on-one calls with our existing clients. And amongst those calls, there is a lot of alpha, a lot of very specific trading problems that I'm working on deeply. And so we started posting these clips onto the second highlight channel recently. And if you'd like to just check out like me solving very specific trading problems, and those videos, by the way, are anywhere between like 3 to 5 minutes. So it's very short, but it handles one very specific problem deeply. Check out the second channel and otherwise let's get into it. Get right into it by starting things off again on the weekly chart first because we need to understand where we're expect like what we're expecting in terms of the weekly power of three and so far what I discussed yesterday has also come true in the sense where we are bullish this week and because we're bullish this week doesn't mean that we're just going to continue just pumping straight towards the upside immediately right it's when you're bullish for the week you might look for Monday Tuesday potentially Wednesday but based on what I'm seeing so far I think Monday Tuesday goes down and mentioned this yesterday and then Wednesday you maybe find a bottom and Thursday Friday you find Finally pump up to this liquidity point that we're looking at right here at $83,000. Now, before you start to scoff at like, okay, where am I pulling this out of? Because like, I'm just seemingly making very abstract predictions about the markets. The truth is I've used this concept known as the Power of 3 for the last year and a half. And if at any point you felt like I've had a bit of a crystal ball predict exactly where things are going to go next, then this is the concept that is responsible for these highly accurate predictions. In fact, just yesterday we had members in the group that's like, yo, Schwenn, you gotta have a crystal ball something. So yeah, this is the method that I use, and it's a lot simpler than you think. In fact, later on this weekend, I will actually come up with a video that will show you exactly how to also get close to an 80% kind of accuracy rate when it comes to identifying like, hey, what's the next day going to do in terms of direction? I've already recorded a video, it's currently being edited, and it will be released this weekend. If you don't want to miss out on it, just make sure you click the subscribe or at least follow me somewhere on socials. So when the video is out, I'll definitely announce it. But Moving on to the daily chart, we are looking at a bearish daily bias, right? So today we're technically looking for some sort of a short. Now, now one of the things that I will mention is that just because we're looking for a short, uh, technically that short move has already happened in the sense where the market has already dumped. And right now it has dumped straight into this daily order block that we've been looking at, right? This is the level that I mentioned yesterday that when price comes into this level, it's very likely going to form the low of the week and then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. At least that was what I had in mind, right, in terms of the weekly profile. So whether or not we should continue to look for shorts at this point considering things have already dumped, go into the lower timeframes to double confirm that. Because after all, the daily chart is purely used for direction, to give us a lay of the land in terms of the higher timeframe. Once we have that, all of the execution and all of the confirmations actually come from the lower timeframe. This is just going to be a general tip. I see so often people believe that just because the timeframe is higher, that means you have higher certainty. But that couldn't be further from the truth. Because if that were the case, then everyone would be trading on the yearly chart or maybe a decade-long chart. Because those are the highest timeframes and If that were to hold true, then yeah, anything that prints on the yearly chart is going to be stronger than the 1-minute chart. But that's not true, right? Because you've got tons of scalpers out there and intraday traders. Case in point, I'm an intraday trader. They make a lot of money still just taking signals from the 5-minute chart. The better way to understand timeframes is that every timeframe has a specific purpose. For example, in my case, the higher timeframe tells me direction. Do I go long or do I go short for today? Middle timeframe gives me levels at which, hey, when price gets into this level right here, I'll be interested to trade in line with the higher timeframe direction. And then the lower timeframe is where I actually execute the trades. All right, so higher timeframe gives me direction. I'll wait for price to get into a middle timeframe key level. Once we're in that key level, I go down into the lower timeframe and wait for my execution signals. Once that's present, I enter a trade. And that's a much healthier way for you to think about timeframes, and also a very simple and non-confusing way to think about timeframes. So yeah, moving down into the lower timeframes, in this case the middle timeframe, I'm going to look for— well, what I'm looking for in this case is just proof for me to expect some sort of a long, right? Because once we under— like, because we understood in terms of the weekly chart and the daily chart that this is actually a very key level where price could reverse out of, I'm now looking for evidence to suggest that, okay, do I just continue looking for shorts today or do I potentially flip long? And the things that stand out to me at the moment is that, well, A, not only is the next like kind of liquidity point very far away from where price currently is, but secondly, we have bearish order flow, like very strong bearish order flow in fact, because right now lower lows, lower highs, you're forming bearish order blocks. And even if we were to go to a long here, Like just understand that we're going to be coming straight into like a big block of resistance right here in the form of this bearish order block. So I don't think longs are definitely the smart thing to do, at least for today. But in the event that we do jump into shorts, which currently is pointing towards that direction, we want to be a little bit cautious in the sense that we are currently in some sort of a higher time frame key level. So in terms of today, the verdict is going to be like just strictly following the system. We are still going to be looking for shorts, and there are 2 ways that this short is going to come from. First of which is this order block that I already marked out. Again, mentioned already that this is a key level of resistance in the event that you come back into this key level of resistance, then you're going to get rejected here and we're going to look for a move towards the downside. So that's scenario 1. Scenario 2 is that by the time you guys watch this video, if price just continues like dumping from this point onwards, like literally something like that, then this is the order block that you're going to want to use or hit. Like as long as price continues to put in bearish price action as we head into the rest of today, you're just going to continue shorting this by using newly formed order blocks on the 5-minute chart. And this is a method known as momentum trading. And it's essentially the idea that as long as the market is still showing that price is still in a downtrend, you will You literally just sell low and then buy back lower. Instead of trying to catch the absolute picture-perfect kind of top or whatever to short from, you just kind of hop on the train in the middle and get off at some point. And that some point is going to be 2R, basically. Like, if this is the order block that you use, you place your entry at the start of the order block, as you're supposed to when it comes to order blocks. You place your stop loss above the order block, as you're supposed to with an order block. And you simply set your target at like 2R, right? As long as you get— like, if you risk $1,000, you make $2,000 back. That's a pretty good trade. And you may not necessarily catch the bottom. In fact, you're very likely not to catch the bottom. But that doesn't matter because you'll be making money. So momentum trading is scenario 2 to expect. Now, I don't know which one's going to happen. Like, I cannot predict, like, okay, yeah, by the time you guys watch this video, you're going to be at this point, or if you're going to come back into the order block. What I can give you is the exact game plan and like, hey, these are the levels, this is what you need to look for before these levels become a valid trade idea, and this is what you do afterwards. And also, like, just before I get too caught up in this entire idea that we are going to be looking for a short here, I do just want to remind you that A, today is a non-newsday, tomorrow is also a non-newsday, which, like, the way this relate back to the system is that we understand the biggest moves in the markets tend to happen for some reason, right? And a lot of the times that reason tends to be high-impact economic news. For example, if there's CPI coming later, then everyone and their mom is going to be looking at the market and be like, I may not know what's going to happen later, but I'm pretty sure because of CPI something big is going to happen. And those are the days where we want to focus our attention because those tend to be the cleanest days, especially if you follow the channel for a while. Like, I've managed to call trades picture perfect, like especially on those days. Instead of just targeting for a 2R, we might get 4, 5, 6, 7R, right? Those are the high-quality days. Now today we don't have that economic catalyst, and catalyst is a very good word for this because when there are no catalysts for price to move aggressively, what you may end up with is just price chopping around, right? Or just giving you false signals and just overall stopping you out. Today is going to be an example of a low-probability day in the sense where is that, A, if we do go short today, well, There's— we've already gotten quite a big, you know, short move from Asia and London today. But secondly, we're in some sort of a daily, you know, support level right now. So even if we go short, how much further can price actually dump, right? That's the second question we got to ask ourselves. And then third, we're dealing with a non-newsday. Is today the best day to trade? I would say no. So I'm just going to put it out there that you're going to want to exercise a bit more caution for today. The way that I'm going to be doing this is, A, I'm going to make sure that when I do jump into any trades, all of the confirmations that I mentioned just now, like, I want to make sure it's there on the chart, like, undeniably, like I don't want to look at the chart and be like, um, is this— yeah, I think this is— I do think this is a bearish kind of situation right now, but kind of weakly bearish, right? I don't want to see that. Like, it's got to be super bearish or I'm not going to be getting into it. Now, second is that aside from the confirmations, even if I do get into any trades, I'm going to try to go half risk on my trades. Essentially, if I usually were to risk $1,000 on this trade, I would go for maybe $500 max in terms of today. Now, this is just me accounting for the fact that I'm operating in a day that is lower probability. Now, if my environment is lower probability, I'm going to do some actions to make myself to increase the amount of probability. Like, for example, if you're dealing with a totally trash day and you're just kind of taking 10 trades today and just being super aggressive and thinking the market is going to move big, and you, you trade that way, guess what's going to happen? You're going to lose a lot of money because you are doing the wrong type of action on a day where it's pretty low probability. Now, on the flip side of the equation, if you have a day where it's high-impact red folder news day, price action super clean, and we have like a very clear draw on liquidity, Which, by the way, for this week is likely going to come either Thursday or Friday. If you're operating in a day like that and you are being way too conservative, like, I want to wait for a bit more confirmation, I'm not feeling quite certain about this, that's a mistake. Because what's going to end up happening is that you'll miss out on a lot of moves and you'll miss out on a lot of potential money. So depending on the day that you're operating in, there's a certain set of behaviors that will benefit you. So for example, today I'm going to be a bit more cautious because, like, truth be told, like, it's We're definitely looking for shorts today, but I wouldn't be super convinced like, yeah, this is absolutely 100%. Like, yeah, I'm confidently going to be going into shorts today for the reasons that I've already mentioned. In the event that we dive into any trades today, like, I will definitely post it on Twitter later if I do jump into any trades. So feel free to follow me there. Like, all of my trade signals are just posted there. It's not gated behind any private communities or whatever. Again, I'm going to exercise a lot of caution and advise that you do the same. And if today ends up being a no trade, so be it. Again, I've already mentioned, like, starting from yesterday, The highest quality trading days for this week are most likely going to come either Thursday or Friday or both. And it's never a bad idea to conserve our ammunition and conserve our capital to focus it on the days that will actually be most likely to give us a very good return on investment. It's just the way that I think about it. And also, by the way, if you've been watching these videos for a while and you hear me talk about these order blocks and CSDs and liquidity, and you're not quite sure what those mean, I posted a video recently just going in like on a 35-minute deep dive into all of these concepts. And I explained them in a very beginner-friendly way so that you would be able to understand even if you've never come across Smart Money Concepts before. If you're interested, check it out right here, and I'll see you tomorrow.