the best trade you can take on bitcoin today (full breakdown)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to be sharing the best potential Bitcoin setup that I see for today. But before I get into this, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these daily trade calls every day for the past year and a half, and I've tracked the success rate of these calls, and so far we're sitting at around a 78% win rate across 200+ trades taken. So if you're new here, like, chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more than I'm wrong. But with that said though, let's, um, let's dive into the video. So first things first, yesterday ended up being a no trade, especially like just exactly what I kind of predicted. But today is going to be interesting because we have technically a bullish daily bias. However, for the same reason that I've explained to you from yesterday, which by the way, if you even if you like missed the trade from yesterday, still go back and watch the trade. Like, I would highly recommend just going back and watching the video because I get into so much, like I share so much alpha on how to like read the higher timeframe setups and how to apply what is a concept known as power of 3, which allows you to kind of catch moves that otherwise people aren't even looking at. Uh, I will kind of mention it briefly again later, but just understand, like, yesterday— in fact, all of the videos over the last week has just been full of alpha. But the one from yesterday in particular, I would highly recommend. I think a lot of people from the comment section below would agree with that as well. But overall though, um, just because we have a bullish daily bias today, it does not mean that we're going to be looking for a long today. Because, um, from like— just, just so you understand what's going on on the higher time frame, we are incredibly bearish on the weekly chart, right? The overall market structure is super bearish. And just Order flow is also super bearish. And last week, like, the— using the same concept that I'm about to explain to you, I managed to basically predict that, okay, just because we had a bullish weekly bias, I wasn't looking for longs, right? If you watch my videos from last week, you know we were not looking for longs. We were actually looking for price to just come into the fair value gap right at the start of the week and then eventually give us a big dump later throughout the week. And similarly, this is going to work the same, where if we go into the daily chart right now, this is a daily bearish fair value gap that I mapped out, from yesterday. And I did mention that there was a chance that we would see price come into this daily fair value gap, and we're going to— if it does, right, if it does, we're looking for a short. Now usually we would look for a short only when the daily bias was bearish, which means that we get a bearish candle close. But for today's trade, as you'll come to see when we go into the 1-hourly chart, it's going to make a whole lot of sense. But just right before I get into it, just wanted to quickly mention that I cooked something up for you guys over the last 2 weeks. I basically made a free tool that identifies your biggest bottlenecks when it comes to trading. Like, for most people that I've spoken to, they have just been fixing things that weren't broken in the first place, but they're completely missing the point where, you know, their trading is getting bottlenecked. And no, this is not going to be some, you know, 5-minute, you know, generic BS type of report. This is pretty detailed. Like, I spent a couple of weeks just like tweaking the questions as well as the actual scoring mechanism so that you will get an accurate report. I've already had quite a few people test this out. Everything— everyone had really good things to say about it. Check it out. I'm going to leave it down below as the first link in the description box below. And let me know what you think. But besides that, just getting back into the video. Going down into the 1-hourly chart, again, I mentioned that the 1-hourly chart is going to be very telling as to what setup we're going to be looking for. And if you just take a look at the 1-hourly chart right here, you can see that in just literally, you know, an hour ago, we managed to confirm a bearish change of state delivery on the 1-hourly chart, which means that this entire block here is now going to be further— but it's going to be bearish resistance until proven otherwise. And the beautiful thing about this one is that this is known as an undeniable CIST. Because you can have early signs of CSD, and then you can have CSDs that are so, you know, you leave behind such a big bearish kind of like block that it becomes undeniable. Now, you're not going to be, at least I don't think you're going to be able to find this concept anywhere else because I kind of made this up, not in a very smart way or whatever. It was just like kind of my explanation of like, it was just kind of my way of explaining what would be an undeniable CSD for me. So this also means that at the moment, just because the daily chart is pointing towards the upside, we are not going to be looking for a long because imagine what happens when we look for a long here? We're coming back straight into a bunch of resistance. So in today's case, we're actually going to be looking for a short, but there is a little bit more nuance to that. So specifically, we're going to want to wait for price to come back into this line of the Undeniable CSD here. So that's going to be like step 1, right? And the second thing is that we're going to be looking for this between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York. Why? Because today we don't actually have news. If you take a look here, there's no USD Red Folder news. In fact, we're not going to have any USD Red Folder news all the way till, you know, Thursday at 8:30 AM, which I guarantee you, like, chances are the biggest, you know, kind of dumps for this week is going to come on either Wednesday or Thursday, most likely Thursday, because there is news. In case you don't understand what that means, the reason why news is so important when it comes to this system functioning at its highest capacity and in general just increasing the probability of our trading is that I want you to understand this about the market. There is always a reason for the market to move. For example, if you have zero news, like zero economic events, then the market is just going to chop around. Why? Why? Because now the easiest way that I can explain this is whenever there is news, everyone is going to be looking at the markets, including, you know, hedge fund managers, the governments, every player from big to small. They're all going to be looking at the markets at around, you know, this kind of like 8:30 AM window in the case of Thursday. They're looking at the market at the time because they're expecting something to happen. Now they may not know if it's going to go up or if it's going to go down, but we do know one thing for sure is that something's very likely to happen at that time. If you come back to the chart here, you'll see that there are two axes on the chart, right? You have the vertical axis and you have a horizontal axis. Now, for most people, they look at the vertical axis and done, right? That's it. Most people just look at price action. But what really high-level traders tend to do is they also take into account the x-axis, which is depending on when certain things on price action tends to happen, that either increases the probability of the trade or lowers the probability of the trade. And in the case for today, because we're dealing with a non-news day, we're already operating in a slightly lower probability environment. So there are going to be two things that we can do to take, you know, to take this into account and to adapt to these market conditions. The first one going to be that any trade we take today is going to be at half risk. Essentially, if I usually take $1,000 of risk per trade, I'm going to take only $500 today because I already understand, right, We're already operating in a slightly lower probability market condition. So why would I increase my risk during this time knowing that I'm more likely to lose compared to, you know, another day where there is clear red folder news, where there's clear, you know, timeframe alignment, where the daily chart is pointing down, the hourly chart is pointing down, the 5-minute chart is pointing down? Like, clearly today is not looking like one of those days. Now, it doesn't mean that we cannot trade this. It's just we want to be clear, right? This is something that most people don't do, which is we want to identify kind of like the risk profile of today, right? Like if it's going to be more of a risky day, then we adapt to that. We take that into account by lowering, like finding other ways to lower that risk so that, you know, we're doing the right thing essentially. And the second thing that we're going to want to do for today is we're going to wait for undeniable confirmations. Now we already got that first sign with the undeniable CSD. Now just to give you a fun fact, besides undeniable CSD, you have another type of CSD known as an early CSD. Now The difference between both is not that one is better than the other, it's just you use different ones in different situations. Like for example, with the early CSD is most likely we're going to use one of those on Thursday, especially once we get into that kind of news window. Why? Because we already know that price is very likely to move, or rather than using move as the word, we're already quite clear that price is likely to explode from, you know, whatever the area is at around that time. So if we continue to wait for an undeniable CSD, we may never get a trade in the first place. So that is an example of being too cautious in a market condition where it was supposed to be aggressive. So on the flip side of the equation, if we take early CSDs for today, that would be like being too aggressive in a market condition that is telling us to be more cautious. So hopefully that makes sense. And by the way, if you enjoy this type of trading philosophy and if you'd like to learn this full system that has gotten half of all of the students that has come into the program funded, or at the very least making a living just by trading, feel free to click the second link in the description box below to book a call. Don't worry, it's not some call where we're going to shove things down your throat and like we're going to sell you things that you don't want. It's just a discovery call. Like, if we find that your situation is one that we can genuinely help you, we'll make you an offer. And if not, we're going to at least point you in the right direction so that you can do a few things to improve your trading immediately. But with that said though, let's dive into the lower time frames to see where it would make sense for us to get into the trade. And immediately I can see there are potentially a couple of areas. By the way, let me just strike this out first on the 1-hourly chart so I don't lose track of it. And yeah, that's basically about it. That's going to be all that we're looking for. I wouldn't even like really take into account this order block here at 64,000. Highly doubt we're going to get back there, but let's just go into 5-minute to, you know, kind of double confirm a couple of things. So first things first, right? We've had a very aggressive move between the Asia session and the London session, right, on the 5-minute chart. Chances are that we're not going to retrace all the way back into the Asia, you know, kind of range. Which means I'm just going to remove this order block just in case, so that we're not looking at levels that are too irrelevant. And this is a mistake a lot of beginners tend to make as well, which is like, yes, it's not to say that this is not a fair value gap, it's not to say that this is not an order block. In fact, they're all valid, but you got to take into account which one's most relevant for you. This is how you prevent yourself from marking out like 10 different order blocks on your chart and eventually confusing yourself because like you don't even know which one's relevant anymore. So just moving lower, like we can see that these two order blocks over here are going to be, you know, kind of more relevant— or sorry, not order blocks, these are fair value gaps on the 1-hourly chart that are going to be more relevant to what we're trying to do here. Because we're looking to take a trade sometime between 7 AM to 10 AM New York, that's about 3 hours away. So what I would personally look for is some sort of a retracement into either one of these. And when it comes time to 7 AM to 10 AM New York, and I would even push that a little bit further and say like between 8 AM to 10 AM New York, I want to see a 5-minute kind of like breakdown, right? I want to see a 5-minute CSD, just some sort of indication that the market is pointing towards the downside. And that's going to be the ideal trade for today.. Now the second scenario that could happen, that I'm on the 5-minute chart, is that by the time you watch this video, price could have very well just kind of broken lower and just kind of formed a new order block on the 5-minute chart. And don't get me wrong, this is fully valid as well, in the sense where this is known as a momentum trade, where as price continues to make new bearish PD arrays in the direction of the overall order flow, uh, you're just going to take advantage of those, right? If, for example, that's a new order block, you place your stop at the end of the order block, entry at the start, and just target for 2R. Same thing here, If by the time you watch this video, momentum is really strong and order flow is continuing to be incredibly bearish, that's the trade. Simple as that. And of course, as usual, I'm going to be posting any updates on my X, like if I do get into any trades or if I just see anything different developing in the markets, I'm going to post it there. So feel free to follow me there. It's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. Either way, the only invalidation that I would potentially see with this, which is highly unlikely by the way, is if we ended up getting a 1-hourly close above $64,000. Like, highly unlikely to happen. If it happens, I'm definitely going to call it out. And if I don't see a trade in general for today, which again could be very likely. Again, we're dealing with a non-Newsday, and at the moment, you know, this setup that I've kind of given to you, we are technically trading against the daily bias, although we have good reasons to be trading against the daily bias, right? Again, on the weekly, on the daily, like everything, we have reason to believe that in terms of the higher time frame, we are pretty bearish. But if today ends up being a no trade, that's absolutely fine as well. Like, more than happy to. The only thing worse than, you know, skipping out on a no trade day is to try to force something in environment where you really shouldn't be forcing anything and just losing money. I don't know about you, but I'd rather not lose money than lose money. But with that said though, drop a like and drop a comment down below if you've enjoyed this video. And truly, a little like and, you know, comment, which wouldn't take more than 5 seconds, goes a long way to just giving me a little bit more support so that I continue showing up daily making these videos. But with that said, I'll see you guys later on X or tomorrow. Ciao ciao!