the best trades for today (it's not bitcoin)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today I'm going to give you the Bitcoin daily setup, but again, as usual, chances are we're probably going to be looking at a couple of forex pairs instead because those aren't going to give you a pretty good opportunity. In fact, yesterday the only win that I ended up getting was on USD/CAD, and that's just the reality of the crypto markets at the moment. We're in the middle of a bear market for the most part, and well, A, it's not going to end yet, and secondly, when you're in the middle of a bear market, one of the things that people don't really realize and people don't really talk about that makes a bear market dangerous is the fact that you get an absolute killing of just volume and interest. And let me illustrate what I mean. If we just take a look at the relative volatility right here, you can see that there is a pretty clear trend that, okay, when Bitcoin is at these levels right here, it is moving on average $5,000 a day. So that is a lot of volatility that we can take advantage of as a trader because at the end of the day, we do not need the markets to go up in order to make money. As long as there is movement, we can make money. And right now, this is where Bitcoin's at. Basically historical level lows. And we have not been at these levels since, well, if you don't want to consider September of 2025 as well as December, well, sorry, January of this year, then yeah, we quite literally haven't been here for like the last 2 years. And so this should give you an idea of like just the type of environment that we're dealing with, which like this alone probably doesn't tell you much. But what it does tell you is that, what this does tell you is that right now, Even if we have a potential setup on Bitcoin, chances are it's not going to play out fully or it's not going to play out at all because we're just in a very low volatility environment. And the best thing, arguably the only thing that you can do in situations like this is A, be more selective with your trades, wait for more confirmations than usual before you jump into it because, well, you're operating in a low probability environment. So you want to have more confirmations to, you know, kind of like make up for the fact that you're operating in a low probability environment. And secondly, it's just to potentially diversify your choices from just outside of crypto. Because truth be told, we've had pretty decent setups on USDC/KN8. We've had very decent setups across forex and indices where we have been consistently making money. If you guys have followed me on my Twitter, you know that I basically, you know, win a trade every single day. And overall I make a lot more money than I do lose. And there is a reason why that happens because I am diversifying my assets. And there is a reason why that happens. It's because I'm not married to a certain pair. I'm always looking for the pair that will be most likely to give me a win for the day. And I encourage you that if you are serious about trading, that is the mindset that you adopt as well. And in fact, speaking about the fact that you are serious about trading, feel free to click the first link in the description box below if you like my philosophy, if you like the way that I talk about the markets, and if you would like to work with me directly to get you to funded within the next 120 days. But outside of that, let's get into the Bitcoin daily setup. Now again, we've already established the fact that we are very much in a bearish trend and that this bearish trend is going to continue. This is a bearish fair value gap right here that, you know, at some point price will continue this downtrend because even if you don't look at market structure and if you just look at order flow, it's bearish, right? You've already gotten a market structure break and for now this is not going to change until at the very least you go above this level right here at $95,000. Until you do, then we're going to be trading— well, the trend is going to be our friend where we're going to continue trading the market lower, selling low and then buying back lower until proven otherwise because that's just how the markets work. So, but with that said, today In terms of Bitcoin, we are dealing with a slightly bullish daily bias. But here comes the problem. Even though we are having a slightly bullish daily bias, we have gotten a 1-hourly CSD over here, which means at this point we're really not, you know, too keen on going long on Bitcoin. Because if we do, we're going to be coming straight into this level of resistance here, and you could make the argument that price is just going to dump from this point onwards. So basically what I'm trying to say is that, well, not only is Bitcoin in a range, but secondly, you have a mismatch between, okay, the higher timeframe is pointing down, sorry, the higher timeframe is pointing up, but then the lower timeframe is pointing down. And in situations like this, the obvious thing to do is to just avoid it because at least one of the reasons, like I've been tracking my trades publicly since 2025, like I've been recording my Bitcoin trades. Like if I do take a trade, I do, you know, usually post it on Twitter and then I log the result. So far I'm sitting at about a 75%, 78% win rate. And the reason why I'm able to achieve such a high win rate is because I am selective about the trades that I do take. And one of the core rules that has me out from a bunch of bad trades. Timeframe alignment, where basically if I'm going to go short, I want to make sure that the daily, the 1-hourly, and the 5-minute are all pointing towards the downside. I'm not just going to go short just because one timeframe is telling me so. I know it is a rule that means I am not going to be trading Bitcoin every single day, but you can either trade every day or you can make money trading both. Like, you do not need to trade every day in order to make money trading. Let's put it that way. So for now, Bitcoin is just like— even if you do decide to take a trade, like, I don't know what to tell you. The responsible thing to tell you is that right now you can make an argument that, okay, London has swept out the Asia lows, and right now if you look for a CSD towards the upside on the 5-minute, and if it happens during sometime during the London session— sorry, New York session— between 7 AM to 10 AM, if you get that CSD above 77500, then yeah, you know, you can go for it, because basically this will be setting up as a, all right, key lows have been swept, you've swept below the Asia lows, followed by a CSD, and this is going to be your typical accumulation manipulation distribution setup. Now, will I be looking to take this? Chances are no. Because I have a better opportunity that I am about to share with you right now. If we take a look at euro real quick, we have very much a kind of like bearish trend at the moment. And secondly, we have a bearish daily bias. This is going to be a perfect example of what high frame alignment looks like because right now we did not get a bullish CSD. Not only did we not get a bullish CSD, but we're also getting a bearish CSD that happened just now at 1 AM. That was when it was confirmed. And right now, In terms of the 1-hourly chart, we also have a very clear daily target that we can kind of shoot for, which is right here. And then the moment I go into the 5-minute chart is like London has been trading below the Asia lows for the most part. And right now I'm waiting for— well, I'm not in yet, but right now I'm waiting for a very convincing signal, which for me is going to be a candle close on the 5-minute chart below this level. Once it does, it's bang, bang, and targeting that low over there, which will give me easily a 2:1, potentially even a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. And let's take a look. Yeah. That's 2.2, which meets the criteria of the trades that I look for usually. Now, if we compare this to GBP/USD, like, very, very different story because GBP, you're taking out some highs, right? So there's a bit of SMT going on here. Now, the second setup that I would ask you guys to pay attention to is oil. So oil, you're dealing with a bearish daily bias, and so far you're coming back into a bearish fair value gap. Now, that alone does not tell you that you should go short immediately. I'm waiting for a candle close below $98. And if we get a candle close on 1-hourly below this level, then that is going to give you a beautiful, absolutely beautiful short setup because straight into these relative equal lows. So bang, bang, bang right here to $95 and potentially even lower because just contrary to Bitcoin, oil actually has pretty decent volatility. Now this is on a 1-hourly chart. Let's move on to the daily. And you can see like this has been the daily volatility that we've been dealing with. And as traders, this is where we make the money. It's not when we can accurately predict which direction the market is going, it's when the market is moving in general. As long as there is movement, we can make money. That's why you want to be ideally focusing on the charts where you have volatility, right? And NASDAQ is going to be another one such example. So NASDAQ, you are bullish so far. This is going to be probably the, you know, the last setup that I'm going to be talking about today. So NASDAQ, you're coming back into this order block right now, as it seems. Now, the unfortunate thing is that the setup that we had in mind from yesterday, like if you guys remember, I talked about NASDAQ yesterday and I said, all right, you're not going to go long until this level here has been closed above. Well, The good news is that we already did. Right now, you're coming back into this bullish order block right here. This is a weak low, so chances are you're going to sweep this out. And 7 AM to 10 AM, if you see a bullish CSD towards the upside, that is going to be the trade that you're going to be taking on the NASDAQ. Now, is this the absolute best setup? Probably not. But at least on NASDAQ, you have a very clear target, you have a very clear order block to work with, and hey, the risk-reward just aligns. So those would be the ones that I would pay attention to. And guys, if you've been enjoying these videos, drop a like, drop a comment down below. It means a lot to me to see your support, and it keeps me going to, you know, I actually show up to make these videos every single day so that I can give you guys the rundown on what are the best potential trades out there. Now, it's not every day that I get it right, but I will say that I do get it right a little bit more often than I do get it wrong. But the key thing here is that, like, yeah, didn't want to necessarily film this video today, but for you guys, I decided to show up. Yeah, a bit of support goes a long way. But outside of that, I'll see you guys next week, and ciao ciao!