the bitcoin bear market is about to get a whole lot worse

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to give you the weekly outlook for Bitcoin, give you a long-term outlook for Bitcoin, and one thing's for sure, it's not looking fantastic, as well as the couple of intraday setups for Bitcoin as well as Forex, because regardless of what's happening on the long term, we still need to make our money trading. So let's, without any further ado, let's dive right into it. We're going to kick things off with Bitcoin on the higher time frame. I just want you to keep in mind that one of the ways that we were able to predict the top, if you just go back to my videos back in October of October/November of 2025, you will come to realize that I was basically saying, once the CSD was confirmed, like, yeah, it's not looking good for Bitcoin. And the moment price came back into this weekly fair value gap over here is when we took advantage of the opportunity to sell everything that we have and to avoid, you know, going through this big drawdown period. Now, in terms of Bitcoin, you're already looking pretty decent in terms of the overall drawdown because it's not down by a lot. But you cannot say the same when it comes to altcoins. Altcoins are absolutely like just dead at this point. Right now Bitcoin is back at this exact same point in the exact same theory that I used back then to kind of call the top. Although I wasn't really calling the top, I was just, you know, trading the system. But either way, right now, same signs. Like regardless of if you're looking at market structure or if you're looking at order flow, like it's just incredibly bearish and you just want to take advantage. Like depending on your timeframe and depending on your kind of like outlook as an investor, Like, this is definitely one of those places, even if I'm not looking to sell, I will be looking to position myself into some sort of a swing short. And I'm going to discuss that in just a bit. But just keep in mind, this is where you would want to sell. This is not where you are looking to buy. And no, the bear market is not over. I have said this, you know, a few months ago, but $50K remains the target because this is the relevant liquidity target. If you just look at every single kind of like Bitcoin, you know, kind of bear market, you always go for some sort of relevant liquidity target. Buying into, you know, Bitcoin right now would be assuming that, okay, this was not going to get taken because of blah, blah, blah. But if you just study the kind of like market structure of previous cycles, you'll see like this is mostly playing out the same way. You get an initial kind of like market structure break, you come back into some sort of PDA and you go for liquidity level. And in this case, you actually find the bottom at some sort of a fair value gap. But still, in this case here, we have a bullish order block. But again, overall, you're looking at bearishness. And so that leads me on to the weekly bias on Bitcoin. The weekly bias is essentially just what direction is the weekly candle most likely to trade towards. And in this case, if we just take a look at the fact that it closed bearish after coming into a bearish fair value gap, we can reasonably assume that the weekly bias, at least for this week, is going to expand towards the downside rather than not. And in terms of the weekly chart, we don't really see any sort of like swing targets. So let's go down into the daily chart and see if there are any potential targets. So here you've got a few, you know, kind of like lows that are quite close together. So it leads me to believe that we will end the week somewhere closer to $70,000, more likely than not. Not. Now, in terms of the daily chart, you have already formed that bearish change in state of delivery. It's kind of what I mentioned last week, hence why we started scaling into shorts on both Thursday and Friday, because, you know, this is when you confirmed that bearish change in state of delivery. And if you don't know what that means, it's basically a change in order flow. Essentially, order flow will give you some sort of a confirmation before market structure does, because, well, if you want to look for a market structure break, well, technically you're already bearish, but like, in order to, you know, confirm a further kind of like continuation just purely based off of market structure, especially major structure, you would kind of need to go below this level, which at at which point it's already kind of too late. So right now we're using order flow concepts such as, you know, fair value gaps and order blocks in order to figure out where the top, or rather the local top, or rather what we like to call it internal range liquidity is, so that we can take advantage of it to take a move towards the external range liquidity, at which point, just based on this chart right here that you can see, is at around $60,000. And now Bitcoin is already exhibiting signs of bearishness, and so you're already looking to position yourself into a short. Now for this week, if you are looking purely from a swing trading perspective, what you would do is to mark out this entire block over here, right? Because when price comes back into here, this is going to potentially validate this as a bearish order block. And once, and once you come back into here, that will give you an opportunity to take a short all the way down to $60K. And just to give you an idea of how the risk to reward would look like, in this case, you'd be looking at a sweet little 6R trade. So that is going to be the swing setup. Of course, like, as Bitcoin continues to fall lower, it doesn't mean that just because you miss this entry means that, you know, you will never be able to take advantage of Bitcoin ever again. If you know for a fact that that Bitcoin is going to come all the way down here, which for now the odds are pretty high that it will, then why wouldn't you just kind of like ride the wave as it continues going lower, right? That's the part that gets a lot of beginners. It's like they miss the first move and they think that they're late, but the truth is, you know, if a move is going to go, just ride the trend and essentially, you know, sell low and buy back lower, or buy high and sell higher. But in this case, definitely you're looking to sell. Now, in terms of the intraday setup for Bitcoin today, you're definitely looking at some sort of a bearish trade. Now, over here is a very obvious order block. Over here you have a fair value gap both. So both are valid. The goal for today is to just wait for a retrace into here and then to break lower. Now potentially you could also just go like if the bearish momentum is really strong, you'd just be waiting for a break, like a candle close beneath $76,800. Once you get an hourly candle close below, this will validate this as a potential bearish order block and you're going to wait for a retrace into it and trade this towards the downside. Daily somewhere between 7 AM to 10 AM New York because that is going to be the New York kill zone. And in fact, just taking a look at the news today, we do not have news. Hence why we're only looking at that 7 AM to 10 AM kind of block, because like, again, there is not much that we have to work with. But outside of that, it is going to be the Bitcoin setup. Like, expect this to kind of like fully come back into here. But other than that, like bear market or bull market, what's important is that, you know, the majority of you here watching are traders. And as a trader, we get to make money regardless of if— like, we don't need the market to go up in order to make money, unlike investors where they can only buy and to, you know, hopefully sell higher. But as traders, we can always go both ways. And as long as there's volatility, we'll be able to take advantage of any moves. And if you'd like my help to install a profitable trading framework, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. This is not going to be for the absolute beginner. Ideally, you should have already done some trading before. If you are that person, that's where you're going to get the most value. But if you're not, feel free to just click ahead. But speaking about volatility, let's take a look at a couple of other forex charts just on an intraday basis so that we have opportunities besides Bitcoin in the event that this Bitcoin setup doesn't play out. So the first one is going to be USD/CAD. Now, this is going to be my go-to pick personally, and The reason for that is because right now you've already formed some sort of a value area. You have a couple of relatively equal highs over there. Now currently it seems that price is breaking lower bit by bit. So the scenario here, if you kind of get a sweep below the value area low, which is going to be at 1.37308, you're going to look for a range deviation play, right? Basically some sort of a V-shaped recovery sometime during the New York session. Now this is going to be setup number 1. Now it would have been way better if you actually just kind of found support at this kind of like fair value gap over here and you started breaking higher and this would have lined end up with an Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution type of setup where Asia, London manipulate, and then New York you distribute. But right now this is still valid in the sense that, you know, you could just be going for the value area low. Once you sweep that out, you go towards the upside. Now the reason why we're anticipating some sort of manipulation here, it has to do with a couple of things. The first one is the fact that the daily bias is very much bullish. And the second of all is if you take a look at the 1-hour order flow, it is also very much bullish. And when you are in a bullish trend, you are going to give the benefit of the doubt to like Whenever any swing lows get swept, you're going to give it the benefit of the doubt and you expect some sort of an up move, kind of like what we saw here, right? Swing low gets swept, but actually ends up going higher. And this is just a characteristic of when you are in bullish order flow where swing lows get swept. They give you an opportunity to kind of get a quote-unquote sniper entry or just to pinpoint bottom for, you know, further up moves. Usually, in fact, even usually, the biggest kind of pumps during an uptrend tends to come after sweeps of, you know, prior sell-side liquidity, i.e., swing lows. So once you understand the way that order flow works, that is when you kind of unlock a lot of things in trading. And for now, this is going to be this, this is going to be the setup that we're going to be looking for. As long as you don't get a candle close below this level, of course, at 1.373. You don't want to get a 1-hourly candle close below because if you do, then you're going to be validating this entire block here as a potential bearish order block. And you're actually going to be anticipating some sort of a bearish reversal instead of bullish continuation. Bit of a mouthful, but hopefully you get the idea. And as usual, I'll be posting any of the updates on X, I've already talked about USD/CAD and oil on X, by the way. And in fact, speaking about X, like, make sure you check out the article that I posted yesterday. This is a, like, this is basically the only metric/equation that determines whether or not you make money in trading or not. I'm not going to, I'm not going to kind of like spoil this here, but check it out. It's a very valuable read. But either way, let's get into the last kind of setup for today. And just one thing to keep in mind before I share the setup, like, Across, you know, across the board. Because today is a Monday, we're not necessarily looking to be too aggressive, right? If you understand how, you know, for example, the Asia session tends to be a session where people avoid. Why do people avoid it? Well, that's because Asia tends to be the accumulation leg of the day, followed by London, which is manipulation, and New York distribution. And oftentimes manipulation and distribution are a whole lot easier to trade because you actually know what's going on. With accumulation, a little bit harder to tell, right? Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? Is it going to, you know, just kind of consolidate? That's what makes Asia so hard. And the same can be said for when you are trading Mondays. Mondays tends to be the accumulation leg of the week, where Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday tends to be manipulation and distribution. And this is also the reason why you will see that the majority of your— I'm just making an assumption here, but the majority of your good trades will come on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, where Monday and Friday will be kind of hit or miss, especially Monday. So it's not to say that we're completely just going to ignore today, but we'll look to be a little less aggressive compared to Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. And in fact, even if you just take a look at the news today, Tomorrow we've got a couple of pieces of news on GBP and USD/CAD. Wednesday we have USD news and, well, that's about it actually. Thursday we have GBP. So we're going to try to focus our efforts on the news days and most importantly on the manipulation and distribution days. But outside of that, like, let's take a look at oil. So far we've got a bullish daily bias. In terms of the 1-hourly, you are coming back into a PD array on the 1-hourly chart starting at 101.2 all the way down to 99. If you come into this block sometime during the New York kill zone, which is between 7 AM to 10 AM New York, you're going to be looking for some sort of a 5-minute CUSD to the upside. Now, that could also be like a potential for a price to just kind of start pumping from that point onwards, at which point we're just going to try to ride a move considering that the Asian low has already been swept. And technically, technically speaking, you've already gotten some sort of a 5-minute change of state delivery. Now, this is a bit too early still. Again, like this was on a news day and we were already in the middle of, you know, the New York session. I would have told you like, okay, this is super solid. Let's just get right into it. But unfortunately, we're not. I'm going to give you an update later on during the New York session. Again, follow me on X. But otherwise, I will see you tomorrow when we get into more setups. Happy trading. Ciao ciao.