the bitcoin trade today is SIMPLE (trade this!)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. We're going to break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin today. And before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these— I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube for the last year and a half or so, and currently I'm at about 75% win rate. So chances are tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. Now with that out of the way, um, we're gonna get right into it. But, um, to those of you that are wondering, yes, I had to do an emergency exit out of Korea yesterday, which is why there was no video yesterday. And also bit of a change of scenery here. So unfortunately, I don't really have too much, um, you know, liberty when it comes to setting up a proper camera and stuff. So you guys are gonna just have to bear with the slightly lower visual quality. After all, you guys are here for the trades, not the— not to see my face. So yeah, with that out of the way, let's, uh, get into it. Now, just starting things off on Bitcoin, uh, we are looking at a bullish daily bias. So technically, we should be looking for a long today. Now, yesterday ended up being fairly choppy in the sense where, like, prior to— now, yesterday ended up being fairly choppy. So yesterday would have ended up being a pretty good kind of momentum trade kind of day, but it would have also been tough to catch that because prior to 9 AM yesterday, price was actually super choppy. So, but still, like, if you did get that CUSD and if you decided to just go for the trade, then yeah, it would have worked out. Although yesterday, even after, you know, landing very late at night and spending the whole day traveling, I still ended up hopping on to a live trading call with the Blueprint members. Um, we ended up catching a very solid trade on S&P 500 where basically we managed to catch the top with a bit of a momentum trade, and then oil just ended up chopping around for the entire duration. Like, didn't quite managed to get 2R, so I ended up getting stopped out breakeven there. Euro as well, like just overall super choppy conditions. So it was probably a good thing that we didn't end up trading too, too much yesterday, but hopefully today is going to have a slightly different condition. And just purely based on looking at the chart, not only do we have a bullish daily bias, but in terms of the 1-hourly chart as well, we are coming back into a bullish order block with order flow already being bullish. So all in all, like everything is looking quite decent with some sort of a pump. And right now, uh, seeing how we're already at this point here, we could kind of refine the order block even lower to just this series of candles. So basically, the setup for today revolves around this order block. Basically, you want to see price bounce from this point onwards. You do not want to see a candle close beneath this level right here at 64,500. Now, heading into the New York session, we still are not dealing with any news. Like, we do not have any news today. It's not that we're not going to, you know, look for any trades because of that, but still, any trades that we look for, like, let's try to go for half risk or just look for a bit more confirmation before we dive in. So technically speaking, right now that I'm recording this video, God bless me getting out of South Korean kind of time because now I'm an hour ahead. So wonderful. As we head into the New York session, if you get the early CUSD, this is technically already valid. If we were to, you know, map this out based on the kill zones, which I'll put it up now, we basically are looking more of like an Asia accumulation. London, right, the majority of London has been trading above the Asia high, which means we're looking more so at an accumulation, breakout, retrace, and then continuation, right? That would, that would be the setup for today. And obviously, by the time you watch this video, uh, if this low gets closed below, then yeah, obviously this is not going to be great and you're no longer going to be trading that. And obviously, by the time you watch this video, if this low here gets closed beneath, then this trade setup just completely gets invalidated. The other thing that I would like to caution you against is the fact that yes, once the early CICD is confirmed, you can already get into it. The fact that you are going to be trading into a big order block over here, hence why like we are going to go half risk. Like, doesn't mean the trade is invalid because the overall daily bias is bullish. So we're still going to be looking and prioritizing longs anyways. But something that would kind of ease my heart a lot more is if we were to get an undeniable CSD, right? If we were to get something like this, it can kind of show you that, okay, there's a very large willingness in price to head towards the upside. Now at this point here, I would totally love to just discuss this story that I captured yesterday on, well, in the, on the flight basically, which by the way, you know, like I don't know how many of you are dealing with a heat wave right now, but Seoul is having it real bad. Like, look at these temperatures, 38 degrees. But you know, the reason why I bring this up is like, I decided yesterday— sorry, I decided on the evening, right, before I had this flight, literally 12 hours before the flight, I bought the flight. And the reason why I bring this up is just to, you know, this is the reason why we trade, right? As a trader, you have an immense amount of freedom. Both in terms of time, financial freedom, of course, once you get, you know, once you make enough money, but also location freedom. You are able to, like, for example, I decided that the weather was completely unbearable. Next, like, within 12 hours I was out, I was on a plane, and I came back home. If this is also a lifestyle that you are aspiring towards, just understand that trading can give you all of this and more. But the way that you're going to get to this is to not be this guy, to not do what he just did. Like, throughout the entire journey of me boarding the plane, I took Like I took a lot of like stealth screenshots of this guy and essentially like in the first 20 minutes, right, since I sat down, bro has already took 3 trades, placed 4 limit orders, and he has refreshed his P&L 200 times and he's went through like the 1-minute timeframe and the 5-minute timeframe like hundreds of times in 20 minutes. Update: in about 20 more minutes, he refreshed another 200 times and he has lost all 3 of his open trades, but he has added, you know, more limits and he kept, you know, kind of moving them around as like, for example, as price continued to go higher, he would continue moving it higher as well. And in the time that I took to kind of like write this out on my phone, it's like, oh yeah, now he has 5 limit orders. Update again, in about another 20 minutes, I was able to get a closer look at what he was trying to do. And essentially, like, we were actually asked to get off the plane because the, like, due to the heat wave and just the immense heat, the AC unit of the plane was not good enough and was not strong enough to cool the entire plane down. So it was very uncomfortable. And we were asked to disembark the plane before, you know, everything was fully ready. And then we could just board the plane back again and, you know, kind of leave from there. And then I had the opportunity to kind of get a closer look at what he was trading. Now the funny thing is he was trading gold, but that's not even the interesting part because once I could see what he was trading, I went onto my own chart and I was like, goddamn, this is not the type of price action that I would, you know, be looking to short. As price was continuing to go higher and higher and higher and higher, I saw him take a total of 10 different shorts throughout the entire, you know, kind of hour and a half delay that we had on the plane. He opened up 10 different shorts. Now obviously he lost all of them because during, while we we were in while we were on the flight, price continued to go up by a lot. Two lessons, well, a few lessons that I would love to share and the reason why I shared this, which by the way, like, which by the way, this was what he was doing, like refreshing his P&L constantly, going between timeframes. Like this was a whole kind of like minute-long video. Whatever he, you know, every mistake in the book, he basically made it. And I'd like to just share this example so that you understand what not to do basically if you want to make money trading. First of all, He took 10 total trades in about the span of an hour. I take usually 2 to 3 in a day at most. Nobody like— there is no way you would have 10 solid A+ opportunities within the span of 1 hour, especially if you're only looking at one asset, right? If this is something that you're doing, like, get that out of your head right away. Now, amongst those 10 trades taken, he was basically opening shorts as price was continuing to go up, which, funnily speaking, which, you know what the funny part is? Like, for example, in that entire duration where he was trying to go short, Miles went long. And guess what? He closed the trade out fully for his TP. And guess who was paying for Miles, you know, kind of trade? That's right, it's people like this. And as much as I would have loved to help, um, that's why I'm making this video and using this as an example. So first things first, right? There is no way humanly possible that you will have 10 solid quality trades in the span of an hour, which means what he was doing was gambling. Gambling on what? He was trying to catch a top, right? As price continued to go higher, literally I was seeing him go short on every new bullish order block that was forming on the 1-minute chart. If you were to just go with the trend, guess what? You'd have made money. You'd have made a lot of money actually. Now imagine if all 10 of those shorts were 10 longs, right? How different of a result could it have been? So that's lesson number 1, right? Trade with the trend. The trend is your friend. There's a reason why this is said time and time again in the trading industry. It is true. Secondly, once you actually get into your trade, this guy was absolutely locked in, right? His overall focus, super locked in, and he was basically refreshing between his P&L, the 1-minute chart, and the 5-minute chart constantly. Like I'm talking like just back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. If that is also you and you have an inability to kind of take your eyes off the chart. That also tells you something else, right? A, do you really trust your trade? Like, are you confident that this is something that, you know, is profitable and is, you know, a quality setup? Because if it was, you'd be able to just leave it alone and move on to do, you know, whatever else you were supposed to do. But B, also, like, the more times he kind of refreshed things, the more trades he ended up taking. So if you struggle with overtrading, literally, like, well, first rule is no more than 2 to 3 trades a day, right? There is no way humanly possible that you are even going to have 3 super valid setups, especially if you're only looking at one asset. Secondly, stop this. The more you look at the chart, it's like the more— like nothing good ever comes from looking at the chart, right? The more you stare at the chart, the more reasons that you will have to A, move your stop loss or to kind of cut your trade short. Basically, you're not— like you basically plan the trade, but then you don't have the ability to let the trade play out. And the more you're going to look at the chart, the more you're going to, you know, want to mess with the trade. And guess what is needed for you to make money trading? That's right, you need to be patient to let your trade play out. Something that doesn't help is looking at the chart. Now, to some of you, you might think that, okay, looking at the chart means that, you know, you're managing the trade. I want to ask you a question back. If you've already done the planning really well, right, you've identified that this is a solid setup, what more is there to manage? The more management you do, the more chances you're just going to kind of shoot yourself in the foot, right? So don't do that. So that's like 3 lessons already. Here's another big one. Like, the amount of times where I saw his stop loss getting moved, like, as price continued to go higher and the more his idea got invalidated, A, not only was he adding more to his losers, right, the more price went up, the more he shorted. Like, come on, man. Trend is your friend. And then secondly, like as price was continuing to go up and he was, you know, getting more and more wrong, the more times I saw him actually move his stop loss higher and he would start zooming out, right? Going to the 1-hourly chart, right? Where initially he was only looking at the 1-minute and the 5-minute. Eventually he went up to the 1-hourly chart to kind of, you know, find an area to place a stop loss. That's like the cardinal rule, the cardinal sin of trading where moving your stop loss. Literally, if you can remember just this one quote, plan the trade, trade the plan. Once you already have your idea, right? Your entry, your stop loss, your TP, Once you're in, just let it be. And if you can, and I know that, you know, some of you might have the tendency to want to keep messing around with your trades and thinking that you are doing something productive. Well, first of all, it's not. But secondly, if you have that problem, then one of the ways that you can think about this is you are only going to be, you know, plan the trade, trade the plan for the next couple of weeks. It's not forever. Now, at least for the next couple of weeks, every time you feel the urge to do something different, to move your stop loss, to change your idea, to change your TP or whatever, just remind yourself, all right, it's not going to be forever. For a span of 2 weeks, I'm just going to plan the trade and trade the plan. And just let things play out. Trust me, you're going to end up walking out of these 2 weeks making way more money and having a lot more peace of mind. And you're actually going to feel much more confident as a trader. Like, and like, this isn't even the last, like the end of the story, right? Because after we, after the plane took off, I literally saw him pull out a book of technical analysis and I was like, whoa, this guy is like, I respect the effort, but I feel like the problems that he's been dealing with, and I really wish that this guy would be, you know, kind of watching this video. Unfortunately though, he is Korean and I highly doubt, like no offense whatsoever, but there's been a very big, you know, English language barrier while I was in Korea and I've spent like close to 6 months there. And chances are he's not going to watch this video. But if he does and if you see yourself in what he was doing here, like seriously, the things that are actually holding you back from profitability is not much. The few lessons that I shared: trade with the trend, limit yourself to 2 to 3 trades per day. Once you take a trade, like just let it play out at least for the next like 2 weeks or so. Even if you don't want to think of it as like, okay, you're not committing to this long term, at the very least, all right, for the next 2 weeks, you're just going to trade the plan— sorry, plan the trade and trade the plan. Besides that, like, yeah, I think that's honestly all of the things that, like, very simple, right? It's just 3 things, but it would drastically change his trading. And I know, and if you feel like this is too simple to be true, try it out. I urge you. And the reality is that a lot of trading advice and a lot of the things in trading that actually work are very simple. It's just deceptively simple. All you need is someone to actually tell you, and ideally someone that's been through this, has gone to the other side to tell you like, hey, this is all you need. And so if you see yourself in this person, then just do that. Because believe it or not, success in trading is a lot more simple than you think. And after, you know, we actually took off, pulled out a book, right? Technical Analysis. Like, whoa, even I've never read a book on technical analysis. Like, I started, at first I thought he was just reading a book. I was like, nice, this guy's, um, and eventually I started seeing charts pop up and I was like, That's probably not what you need right now, sir. Although, as much as I would've loved to help him, like the other thing that would probably help him as well is journaling. But to be honest, like at his rate, like at the rate that he was going, I doubt even journaling would kind of illuminate the problem to him. 'Cause I would almost guarantee that he might not have seen anything wrong with what he was doing. And so even if you journal, but if you don't know that there was a problem in the first place, then yeah, all you can kind of come to the conclusion to is like, okay, I lost 10 trades in a row without understanding like, yeah, you should never, as a trader, you should never be in a position where you stand the chance to even lose 10 trades in a row in the first place. And that constant kind of like shorting more and adding more to the losers as price is going up and the more he was being wrong, it's like that behaviorally there is something wrong with that. So yeah, again, respect the hustle. And I can see that, you know, his story is a lot like a lot of you that are watching this video right now where, you know, you're starting trading but you just don't know what you don't know. And most importantly, you feel like you're putting in a lot of effort, but you could be just going completely in the wrong direction. Yes, you're putting in effort, but you're not getting results out of it. And this is where it it pays to have personalized coaching from someone that has already achieved the things that you have wanted to achieve. Now, recently I started offering a one-on-one program where me and you, we talk every day. I'm going to be reviewing your trades personally and we're going to be hopping on calls so that I can just tell you straight up like, hey, this is what you need to do, this is what you don't want to do. And, and then we're going to keep you accountable as well. As much as this is going to sound like a shameless plug, like, okay, this is the story. If you resonate with him, then the solution is to buy some coaching. But it is true. Honestly, imagine how much further you would be along your trading journey if you had me just looking at, you know, what you were doing there and literally pointing out every single thing that you're doing that is not particularly effective and then giving you the solution right then and there. I'm just going to leave it at that. Like, if you're interested, click the first link in the description box below. If I do get into any other trades for today, like, I'm definitely going to be posting it on X, so feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, yeah, it's just a simple long. As long as that order block doesn't get broken through, it's a simple long. Um, we're targeting for 2R. Uh, doesn't look like we are going to have a whole lot of volatility today, but another place that we could definitely target is definitely 65,000. So if we have volatility, we're looking easily at a potential— now even if I were to just use this 1-hourly order block without waiting for CSD or whatever, uh, we're still looking at a minimum of a 5R trade assuming that full target is hit. So yeah, even though today's a non-Newsday, I think the setup is pretty clear. Yeah, if there's any updates, I'm going to post it on an X, but otherwise, um, take care.