the bitcoin trade today will stop a LOT of people out (do this instead)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Really hope you watched the video yesterday and ended up getting this absolute banger of a trade. And I called this trade on Twitter as well, like just right here. Uh, so hopefully you guys follow me on Twitter, you watched the video, and you ended up getting a win. Yesterday was an amazing day, and today is another news day, which means that chances are we're going to have a pretty high probability day on our hands. So I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin today. And before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls For a year and a half, and so far for this year, I'm at about 47 out of 67. All that means is that chances are I tend to be right just a tiny bit often compared to when I'm wrong. So hopefully that gives you a reason to listen to the stranger from the internet. And also, real quick, I've got a second channel where I'm posting like highly in-depth, just short clips where I'm tackling very specific trading problems. All of these clips are coming from the one-on-one calls that I'm doing with my students, as well as the coaching calls and live trading kind of like live streams or whatever you want to call them. So it might not be good enough to make it onto this channel, but that's why I have the second channel. Feel free to check it out. Check it out. You'll be able to find it in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the video. Now kicking things off on the daily chart, we are looking at four straight days of dump on Bitcoin for this week. And if you guys know anything about session profiles, or rather weekly profiles, there is one of the popular weekly profiles where, like you know, just to list out a few of the common ones, and especially the one that I was looking at to happen this week, was a Monday Tuesday dump and then Wednesday Thursday Friday that kind of profile, right? And we had reason to believe why that was going to be happening because we are. Coming into this daily order block right here on the weekly chart. Plus, in terms of the weekly, we're actually looking bullish. And understanding that we are bullish on a weekly chart means that if Monday, Tuesday retraces into some sort of key level on the lower time frames, it sets— like, this gives us a perfect opportunity to jump into a long to take advantage, to basically buy low and then sell high at the level that we're targeting, which is $83,000. So far though, this week has played out a little bit differently, where Monday, Tuesday did in fact come into the key level Wednesday though, it was showing some sort of bullish movement, you know, at the start of the day. Hence why on Wednesday I made the call where I was going to go long. Unfortunately, I ended up losing that trade, which is fair enough, right? Like a 75% win rate doesn't mean I'm going to be right all the time. It just means I'm going to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. Now that ended up failing, and so we remained flexible and we adapted to the changing market conditions by saying, okay, let's not get too stubborn with what we believe the market is going to do and just try to be objective on what the market is doing at the very moment. And yesterday we made the call to go short, which was correct, and we ended up getting a big win out of it. Now today though, we have to take into account that we have had 4 straight days of dump. And here's where I shared that second common weekly profile that tends to play out, where you have 4 straight days of dump and then Friday is kind of like a reversal day. Do have to say this, just because I think that that could be a possibility does not mean that we're absolutely just gonna go long today. At the end of the day, we're still looking at a bearish daily bias. At the end of the day, we're still looking at this liquidity point right here on the weekly chart. Sorry, on the daily chart. In fact, two liquidity points: the first one at 76,150 and the second one at 75,600 that we could easily just head towards the downside to kind of sweep out for today. So depending on how the lower time frame looks, I may just continue to go short. And going down into the lower time frames, the one thing that stands out to me is the fact that right here we have a liquidity point where we can potentially sweep out, and then that leads to a dump. Basically, this allows us an opportunity to sell high so that we can take profit lower. This plays into the daily bias as well. Where, you know, for example, because we're bearish on the day, anytime we trade above the daily open, right? This is the daily open. Anytime we trade above the daily open into some sort of key level, which is this liquidity point right here on the 1-hourly timeframe, it gives us an opportunity to basically sell high and then wait for that true daily expansion to go towards the downside, right? At least that's one of the ideas that I'm considering right now. And mind you, I'm looking at the chart basically right now as I'm recording the video. Now, another thing that stands out to me is the fact that the low over here that we left from yesterday has been swept during this move right here. Ever since then, we have been going towards the upside, which leads me to believe. And every time you see something like this happening, you immediately want to draw your attention to okay. The market is swept and the market is clearly moving somewhere. All right. What could that somewhere be? And is there a good reason for the market to head towards that direction? Most of the time, that reason, right? That good reason tends to be prior liquidity. So this is the prior liquidity point that price is currently reaching for. Now once it sweeps that, that's where I'm interested, right? That's what happens after we sweep. That liquidity point right there. Like our trade today is purely going to be based off of that. Now there are two ways this is going to play out. One, you're going to sweep, you're going to retrace, and you're going to continue, right? This is going to feel like a very dull moment right here, but you could also sweep and you would go for the reversal. Now to further explain what I will be looking for that will be a higher probability play is to take a look at news. And the moment we take a look at news is that okay, we know that at 8:30 a.m. today we're going to have CPI, core CPI, whatever, right? This is red folder high impact economic news. The reason why I mentioned this and the reason why this is important is because the market. always moves for a reason, or at least the biggest moves in the market always have some sort of a reason. The smart money and the institutional traders and the big traders, they're not just going to, you know, pump the price randomly, right? There's always a reason. By the way, don't get me wrong, I don't claim to know that, okay, the reason price moves is liquidity. It's more so like I've seen this type of pattern happen enough times, or like I've seen this behavior of price happening enough times to the point where I can consistently say like, okay, if we take these high probability patterns that have repeated over time, chances are we're going to make more money than we lose. If we follow these concepts, now it doesn't claim like to for me to claim that I know oh yeah this manipulation oh yeah liquidity oh stopping people out like it's all just a hypothesis. I'm not a smart money trader. I don't work at a trading floor, and even if I did, the market the entire financial markets is so huge with like billions of dollars flowing through it at any given second that you know it's there's way too many variables right? Anyone that claims to know oh yeah price definitely moves for this way like. It definitely sells better on social media. And selling on social media aside, definitely gives me a better way for me to conceptualize what I'm talking about when I say, okay, price is moving towards liquidity. It makes a lot of sense, right? And you would understand it better. But again, I just want to put it out there. I don't know why or how this works. I just know that it works consistently. I've been doing this for years, making these daily videos and making these trade calls, and I've publicly documented my success rate. So like, the proof is in the pudding, right? But I don't claim that I know how this works. But just going back to the point that I was making, we know news is going to be at 8:30, right? The market moves aggressively at certain times of the day. Now, even more so when you have red folder high impact news. Now, the other thing that you need to know is that on your chart, you have 2 axes. A lot of people tend to just focus on the Y-axis, which is price action, but they completely forget about the fact that there is another axis here, which is time. Now, certain behaviors of price happening at certain timings or around certain news events tend to increase the probability of those trades playing out. So here's what this is going to mean. What does this mean for you trading Bitcoin today? You know that news is at 8:30. The ideal time window for trading news is between the hour before news to the hour after news. So that's 7:30 to 9:30 AM. Ideally, before the news event drops, so 7:30 leading up to 8:30, you're going to see price already sweeping this level. Now, if price is then on the lower timeframe showing some sort of willingness to go towards the downside— and when I say willingness to go towards the downside, I mean like a change of structure, a break of structure, change of character, change of state of delivery, whatever you want to call it. On the lower timeframes shows that, hey, there is like— price seems to want to go towards the downside, then that's the direction that we trade in. If price, on the other hand, is forming something like this where it's retracing and it's kind of forming higher highs and higher lows, then that's the direction we're going to trade in. Because we know as we approach that news window, like, whatever is happening between 7:30 and 8:30 has way higher probability than any idea that I could share on a YouTube video right now. And in the event that we go short today, this will be absolutely fantastic. Now, in the event that we get a liquidity sweep followed by a reversal, this is going to be a banger of a trade because look at where we're going to be selling and look at where we can potentially buy back. Well, in this case, like when you take profit on a short, it's technically buy back, right? So that's just what I mean. In the event that we go long as well, like that, that's where the argument becomes slightly weaker because technically speaking, you will be trading into, for example, this order block right here, which is a strong level of resistance. You will technically be trading into this entire block right here, which is also a bearish point of resistance. So in the event that we do go long, I will just take a look at the 1-hourly chart and mark out some potential targets that we can go for. And at the moment, it seems to be that the first target for long side is $78,550, and the second one is going to be right here at $79,700. Now, do I think that Bitcoin is going to go all the way up here within the span of today? I don't know. And truthfully, I'm not going to be the one to predict either, because nobody knows really. Now, is Bitcoin going to pump all the way up to $79,700 today? I don't know, and I don't claim to know. But what I do know Is that in this video, what I'm always trying to do is to give you high probability levels and high probability scenarios where basically if this happens, then you do this and you take profit here. If this happens, then you do that and you take profit here. Now coming down into the 5-minute timeframe is when we can get a little bit more granular in what we can potentially look for. Just based on the price action that has already formed at this point, I would personally be looking for some sort of a sweep above. And honestly, either one of these 2 lines right here will be a very good guide as to when change in state of delivery will happen. So The reason why I'm using either one of these lines— and by the way, if you've heard me talk about like order blocks and changes to delivery and all this stuff in these videos and you have no idea what any of this means, I've made a video recently, uh, I posted it last Sunday here on YouTube, where I basically explain CISD and order blocks in a very beginner-friendly way and exactly how to use them. And most importantly, like, there are a lot of videos out there on order blocks and CISD, but what really matters is how you can use them. But the thing that really matters is not like, oh yeah, I understand this concept. It's more of like, okay, you understand it, can you put it into practice and make money out of it? That's what I get into in the video. Like, I'm going to link it at the end of the video, so just stay with me here. Like, when you get the CSD happen, it's basically saying, okay, right now order flow on the 5-minute is bullish, and this at the moment is a 5-minute bullish order block that price can break out of, retrace, and to continue to make a higher high. Now eventually, if this fails, right, where this bullish order block fails to become support, that is known as a change in state of delivery. And at that point, we can flip this order block, right? This used to be a level of support Once it gets broken, we flip it into a level of resistance and we go short there. That is a change of state of delivery. That would be a pattern that I would look at as we approach that news window. Now, as usual, if I do take any trades, I'm going to post them all on Twitter. So feel free to follow me there. Again, link will be in the description box below. It's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever, but that would be what I look for. The argument for that kind of breakout and reversal is going to be a little bit tougher to pilot. Essentially, you're going to look for price to actually come back into this order block and actually hold it. as you approach that news window and ideally make a couple of higher highs. Now, if that happens, then you know what the playbook is going to be. You enter here, you place your stop here, and you can take your profit at $79,000, or in this case, $78,500 is the closest liquidity point on the 1-hourly timeframe. Now, if I had to just kind of give my take on what I think could be more likely to happen, and again, this doesn't mean like, okay, yeah, you just absolutely look for this direction. It's just at least the preferable kind of idea or the preferable trade setup that I'm going to look for today. I would like to see this happen purely because at the moment, the daily bias is incredibly bearish. Like, if we don't actually dump all the way down here, we're going to leave behind a very easy liquidity target that could have been taken this week. But if it doesn't get taken this week, then yeah, you know, we're going to take it next week. Overall, a short today is going to be the easier setup, but it doesn't mean that I'm going to be just stubborn and get married to this idea. If market conditions change, I'm ready to change as well. That is a very important skill that you need to have as a trader, which is a concept known as cognitive flexibility. It basically means that, you know, as a trader, right, When you're dealing with the financial market, you're always dealing with constant change. At any given moment, you're always going to be getting new information, and this new information sometimes conflicts with old information or like decisions that you've already made. The bad traders, the traders who lose money, is that they get way too bought into a certain idea and they look for every reason under the sun to justify what they think should happen in the markets. But that's a completely wrong way to think about it. Even logically, as I'm saying this right now, you should already be like, oh yeah, no, that doesn't make sense. And yet everyone does it. Because everyone is looking to be right in trading. But the truth is, you often don't need to be right in order to make money in trading. You just need to have the ability to read what the market is trying to tell you objectively and act accordingly to that. And I'm gonna share how I navigate today's market conditions later on Twitter. I cannot even guarantee that I'm gonna jump into a trade, but I will try my best. Now, at this point, if you've watched my videos and you know that the system works, or you just like my philosophy when it comes to trading and you think this philosophy could benefit your own trading as well, and if you would like to work directly with me or my team to implement this trading system into your own trading so that you can start getting consistent, I want you to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I want you to check out this video right here where I break down how to use CSDs, how to understand liquidity and order blocks in a very beginner-friendly way.