The Clarity Act decision today is going to be EXPLOSIVE (here's what you need to know)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to get into the exact trade that we should be looking at for today. And let me tell you one thing, I've looked at the chart real quick before, you know, starting this video, and one thing I can tell you for sure is that so far the price movements to start the day have been going like— it's just been very counterintuitive, right? On a regular day, we're supposed to do this, but today we need to do the opposite. So I'm going to break this all down in the video later. Before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube for like the last year and a half. Currently, I have About a 75% win rate. So if that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to this stranger from the internet, then just one other thing, which is the fact that I've created a highlights channel. Like, basically, I do a lot of coaching calls and I do a lot of one-on-one calls with my students, basically. And I also have a lot of live trading calls that we do every single week inside the program. And there is oftentimes a lot of alpha within those trading calls. But, you know, it wouldn't make sense for me to just post the full replay on YouTube, right? Wouldn't do well. So what we've done is we've kind of clipped out a lot of the very high-value, very tactical segments from those calls where I go really deep into a specific trading topic, and we've been posting that on this second channel. So if you'd like, check it out. Like, you'll see it somewhere here, you'll see it somewhere below, I don't know, it's probably in the link in the description box below. But with that out of the way, let's get into the video. So, so far we're looking at— just to real quick mention the weekly bias— so far it is technically still pointing down. So far, uh, we're also anticipating that, just like what I mentioned yesterday, I am anticipating personally that we tap into either one of these 2 levels. In fact, let me just remove this top one because I don't think that makes a lot of sense to keep there. So Basically, I do think that before any sort of upside move for this week, we are going to tap 75,600. And I do think that this is likely to happen considering the way that today's price action has been playing out so far. So yes, right, uh, yesterday we ended up closing bullish, which usually on a usual day we're supposed to be looking for longs because we ended up closing bullish yesterday. But for the reason where we're anticipating price sweeping out this sort of liquidity level right here before some sort of upside expansion— and the reason, by the way, why we're anticipating that upside expansion is that the main event, right? The main news event for this week is going to be at Wednesday where we have federal funds rate. And this is like interest rate decisions, basically. The interest rate decisions are, you know, basically one of the largest news events that you could possibly have for the month, which means one thing, right? That Wednesday is more likely than not going to be incredibly volatile. Like Wednesday is going to look more like this rather than, you know, all of these small days right here because you actually have a strong reason for the market to move, like, you know, to make a big move. So my initial idea is that Monday and Tuesday are going to set up in a way where we're going to sweep the liquidity, and Wednesday is when, you know, we are going to get that big reversal towards $83,000. Now, it is also very likely because, after all, if you remember the price movement that we saw on last Friday where basically the low of the candle was— what is this— $76,000, and the high of the day was at $80,000, right? That's a $4,000 price move. So over here, that's $76,000. Assuming we start Wednesday off somewhere around here, like, going all the way to $83,000 definitely makes sense. And even if Wednesday does not go straight to $83,000, right, it at least sets us up for like a Thursday, Friday kind of continuation move, where basically if you have one day that makes a really solid move, you tend to get a couple more days of, you know, just continuation. And in the event of this week, for example, right here, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday was all towards the upside. Now of course there's a bit more nuance to this, but just for now, in terms of the weekly profile, this is what I'm keeping track of. Now to get into the daily chart, yes, so far we are dealing with a bullish daily bias, so technically we're supposed to be looking for longs. But the moment you go down into the 1-hourly time frame is when this argument completely just falls apart, because Wait, actually, let me just remove everything so that we don't clog up the chart. And by the way, before I do remove everything, it's worth mentioning why I tend to avoid Mondays. And the reason why I'm going to mention this is because yesterday we had someone ask me, like, Ryan, you were basically asking me, like, hey, what's your Monday win rate? And I'm like, dude, incredibly low. Like, historically speaking, even on these, like, publicly— these public calls right here, historically speaking, I've lost about half of my trades on Monday, and then the other half is like the rest of the days combined. So it's not even close, basically. And the reason why this is the case is because majority of the time on Mondays, you do not have news. The reason why we want news, or ideally we want to be trading on a news day, is because we understand the biggest and cleanest moves in the market are probably going to happen when smart money, or like the big players or the institutions, get involved. Where there is no news, which tends to be Monday, your probability is going to be a lot lower. So what I often see is that just because price action lines up, which by the way, yesterday, Fully lined up. We were looking at a potential long, and we had bullish order flow. We had this bullish order block right here. The price came into the bullish order block at around 8:30 a.m. I got into a trade after seeing a five-minute CSD, as you can see right here. And yesterday, I gave you guys a trade idea where you know hey you got a five-minute CSD over here after tapping into the order block at exactly what is this? 8:30, 8:35. And like yeah, this is by all accounts right. If this was any other day than Monday. This would be a super solid trade and it would've had a very high likelihood of playing out. And don't get me wrong, right? Outside of, you know, potentially getting stopped out here, the trade eventually did play out. But that's the trap of Monday. This stuff happens a lot where just because your trade idea lines up, then everything in price action seems to confirm that you have a solid trade there. It doesn't play out because it's Monday. And the other reason where Monday is just really hard to just kind of make work is that Monday is the opening range of the week. It basically means that Monday's price action is a little bit more random. It's a little less easy to predict because it's the first day of the week and like there are a lot of like market makers or big players or whatever, they're just kind of rebalancing their positions to start the day. So Monday kind of sets the range for the week and then the rest of the days, like for example Tuesday is a day where we usually look for manipulation, hence why, you know, kind of pointed out that target from below $75,600, which let me actually just go ahead and mark it out just in case we forget later. So Tuesdays is usually a manipulation day, so Monday, usually accumulation day, and then Wednesday we look for distribution, Thursday continuation. Like, I'm not going to get too deep into this, you know, daily/weekly profiles. If you'd like to learn more, by the way, feel free to check out the first link in the description box below. That's where you get to work with me and my team basically one-on-one. We help you install this exact trading system so that you can just basically start consistently making money, or at the very least, to trade with confidence without feeling like whatever you're doing, like, if you win, it just feels like luck, and if you lose, you're like, you don't even know what's going on. If that's the case, like, first link in the description box below is going to really help you out. But hey, With that out of the way, coming down into the lower timeframes, now that we have removed and kind of got Monday out of the way, is the fact that currently we have a bearish CSD on the 1-hourly chart. And essentially right now, the 1-hourly timeframe is very undeniably bearish in terms of order flow. But here comes the problem. In terms of the daily chart right now, we're looking at a potential bullish kind of day where we're supposed to be looking for longs. But if we do decide to go for longs here, we're going to be trading literally into this entire block of resistance right here. So not ideal. So longs is definitely out the window. And seeing how the lower timeframe has already kind of shifted towards the downside, I would be more inclined to look for the shorts. But if I were to be completely honest with you, this is usually the type of day that I tend to avoid. And when I say tend to avoid, I literally just mean like I'm not trading this day, for the same reason as why I don't usually trade on Mondays. Like, the other huge red flag, and whenever I see this, I just, just decide like, okay, my time is probably better spent elsewhere. Uh, could be Forex, could be indices, but it doesn't need to be Bitcoin specifically. And that exact signal is timeframe misalignment. Basically, when we look at the daily chart, we know we're supposed to be looking for longs. But the moment we come down into the lower timeframes, the signals are printing that, hey, we should be looking for shorts. Right now, there's a bit of misalignment where one timeframe is pointing up, one timeframe is pointing down. Whenever you see that, there's usually a reason why the market is printing this kind of signal, right? Ideally, you want to stay out of this. Like, assume that you had 10 different charts to look at, and if once you do a scan through those 10 different charts, you realize that, okay, there are a couple here that are just straightforward. You look at it, Within 30 seconds, it immediately jumps out to you. Yeah, this is an A+ trade. If you had the option to, wouldn't you rather focus on those trades that could have a very high likelihood of giving you a positive return compared to trying to force something on this where clearly it's printing conflicting signals, right? That's how you want to think about it from the perspective of a trader. Like, if you want to get consistent, you cannot just stick to one chart, right? Contrary to what some traders may lead you to believe, I don't think it's in your favor at all to have only one asset class that you look at, or even one asset that you look at. Like, sure, usually Their biggest argument to like, oh, you only trade one chart, is that you will quote unquote master the chart, or like you will quote unquote get better at trading that chart. But I want you to stop and think for a moment. How many hedge funds or large trading firms or like institutions or just any sort of big players, like how much money do you think they spend each year on hiring talent, on building algorithms, on, you know, getting proprietary information or AI systems or whatever, anything to give them an edge so that they can quote unquote solve whatever asset that they're looking at or whatever asset that they're trading? Yeah, a lot. Millions, tens of millions, billions potentially. And do they manage to figure this out? Absolutely not. They don't even get close. And any proper trader, if you listen to their interviews, they will be the first to tell you like, yeah, you know, half the time we don't even know what we're doing. All we know is that we have a system that works and we have an edge, so we consistently execute that edge. So for a retail trader on Twitter or YouTube, for example, to say that, oh yeah, I only trade NASDAQ because I've mastered it, or like I've figured NASDAQ out, how much of a delusion is that, right? So like, that's just one I could get into a couple of other reasons. For example, when you only look into, you know, when you're only looking at one chart, even when the chart is not giving you like really clean signals, you're still going to try to force something anyways because it's the only option you've got. And if your identity is that of a trader, then you're always going to want to do something. As a trader, you feel productive when you take a trade, right? A lot of people don't understand that trading is literally a game of quality where you're paid based on the quality of the decisions that you make, not the quantity. of the decisions that you make. And sometimes people understand this in theory, but in execution, it's very hard to pull this off. So all in all, like, when you only have one chart, you're going to look at this and you're like, oh yeah, I know today's not the best day, but let me still try to make something happen. And that's the wrong frame to approach. Like, you're already starting off on the wrong foot, basically. And you'd rather just do things properly and have a system, a proven system, ideally. But secondly, like, look at more assets. Crypto doesn't need to be the only asset class that you look at. Forex and indices are a lot easier to figure out than you than you might imagine. I used to be like most crypto traders where crypto was the first thing that I got into. Once I started actually going onto like these forex charts, it was really overwhelming in the sense where everything looked foreign. I've never seen an interface like this. It almost looks you know a little bit old, a little bit archaic, a little bit ancient. And something that I realize now that I wish I would have realized back then is that new. And unfamiliar doesn't mean overwhelming or difficult. It's just unfamiliar. And once you can get over that hump, trust me on this, when you actually get into it, forex, like the UI/UX on forex compared to crypto, it's actually a lot simpler. And it's going to take you like max 30 minutes to maybe 60 minutes to figure things out. And you're going to be well on your way to navigating a forex exchange, or as they call it, a forex broker. Like a pro. Not to digress myself too much here, like we're getting conflicting signals. I would usually, you know, not just not trade this day, but I know that a lot of you here are looking to take a trade every single day, so I'm still going to give you my two cents. So right now we have a couple of liquidity levels. Obviously you have this one right here. The closest one is at 76,350, although seeing how close we already are to this level, I don't think there is a lot more juice there, or at least it wouldn't be worth it to take a trade already on like a day where we supposed to be looking for longs, but right now market is pointing towards the downside. Uh, we're already taking on extra risk here. Why take take on extra risk if our target is this short, right? It's not even worth playing. So the realistic target for today is going to be $75,600. So what I would do for today, assuming 2 things, right? A, on paper we actually don't have news, but B, when you don't look on paper, at 2 PM today a decision is going to be made on the CLARITY Act, which depending on how that kind of plays out, this is going to affect interest rates or whatever, and it's going to affect how tomorrow is going to play out. So today technically we have a news day, It's just the news is going to drop at 2 PM today, which is a late news day. So what I would do is I would treat today as having 2 separate sessions, basically one between 7 to 10 AM and the other one between 1 PM all the way to 3 PM, because the Clarity Act is going to have a decision at around 2:15 PM. So the hour after news and the hour before news is the news kind of window, and this is just a New York kill zone. So basically, as you retrace back into any sort of PD array within the hours of 7 to 10, and I would even narrow it down further and say like, yeah, between the hours of 8:30 to 10 is ideal for today because again, you're already operating in pretty low probability environment. Not only are you getting conflicting signals where the 1-hourly chart is pointing towards the downside, the daily chart is pointing towards the upside. On paper, you don't have news for today morning, so play it safe. Go for like, you know, 8 PM— sorry, 8 AM to like 10 AM, or 8:30 to 10 AM. And you want to look for a retracement into a PD array, and you want to look for signs on the 5-minute chart that you are getting a CIC towards the downside. And if you get that, enter here, you place a stop here, and you take your target over there or there depending on how the market is setting up. Now of course this is all just an idea. If by the time you get into that timing zone price is just forming higher highs and higher lows and just consistently just giving you some bullish signals, obviously this is going to become a no-trade day where like, yeah, even if you were to go for a long, I've already explained earlier that you're just going to be trading into a whole bunch of resistance, which is not worth it. And if you go short, then that actually makes a lot more sense. So in the event that you hop onto the markets later and you have no idea what to do, then don't worry. Like, I'm going to be posting any thoughts I have on Twitter. If there is an entry that I get into, I will be clear that that is an entry that I'm getting into, so feel free to just follow me there. None of my trades are gated behind some signals groups or whatever. It's all publicly available for all to see. Just also zoom out real quick. We are very clearly operating within a range right now, and the fact that yesterday we left this high over here without actually sweeping out the high that we left behind from last Friday means that there is a very high likelihood that we're going to revisit this level at some point later on this week. So this only adds more credibility to the fact that, okay, if we sweep this out, this is going to be a sweep of the range lows. It's going to be a sweep of some key levels on the daily chart. Even on the daily chart, technically you are within a range. Like, if you take a look, that's the range high, that's the range low. You swept out the range high a couple of weeks ago, and ever since then you've been on a beeline straight towards that sell-side liquidity. Once you sweep out this liquidity is when the, you know, quote-unquote bull market or whatever is going to restart again. And again, I want to remind you this, where in terms of the higher time frame, like if you really zoom out for a bit, you have left behind relatively equal highs From the weekly chart. Look at this. So everything's bullish in terms of the higher timeframe. Nothing's changed there. It's just when we're navigating the micro, we need to be a lot more patient here because seeing how the higher timeframe is bullish, it's going to take some time to set up. And taking some time to just sweep out some liquidity before moving on is perfectly reasonable. And so for those of you that are just trading on the higher timeframe, be patient. And to those of you that are trading the lower timeframe, also be patient. Eventually, the conditions where the market is just pumping straight up is going to come back and things are going to be a lot easier. But part of the skill and part of what it takes to succeed in trading, especially in the long term, is being able to identify— it's less so about identifying like what kind of trades you should go in, because that's oftentimes the easy part, right? We all have no problem jumping into trades, but we all have a problem with jumping into trades that we shouldn't be jumping into. So arguably, a more important skill to learn as a trader that will actually benefit you is learning when you should stay out of the markets. And for this system in particular, It absolutely just gets destroyed when the market is in ranging conditions. After all, this system that I'm trading right here, which by the way is a really profitable system, but at the end of the day, it is a trend trading system, which means that it's optimized for times when the market is moving unidirectionally, which basically means that it's going in one direction. Now, it doesn't need to be fast, but it needs to be clear and trending, and, and that is when this system performs the best. Now, on the flip side of the equation, when the market is moving really cleanly and it's making new highs and making new impulses, that is when range trading systems will actually struggle. So it's just all about an ebb and flow, right? There are times when range trading— well, the market always ebbs and flows between ranging conditions and trending conditions. It's just we need to be able to wait for everything to be present to set us up for that kind of like trending condition. So right now, like yesterday and today, my stance has been, you know, be a little bit more patient and just kind of stay out of the markets. Wait for Wednesday, wait for Thursday, wait for Friday, because that's honestly going to be, in my opinion at least, or in my experience, going to be a lot easier to navigate and a lot easier to actually make money compared to lose money. And so yeah, with that, Out of the way, I'll see you guys tomorrow. I'll see you guys later on X as well if I get into any trades. But with that out of the way, ciao ciao.