The Setup Is Obvious Today + Altseason Picks/Bitcoin Long-Term Analysis

Boom. What's up guys? Yesterday we successfully determined in the fabric gap closed below it and then for the rest of the day you just started heading lower. Now the target that I set out yesterday, 106, 500 was hit. But there was also a secondary target that I kind of showed on Twitter which is 106. And you can see this is where price ended up reaching around the New York afternoon session. And once this level was hit you kind of just chopped around until this morning during the Asia session when volatility picked up again. Alternatively you can also look for this bullish order block to get close below for an even, even higher certainty trade essentially if before 8:30, God forbid, you retrace, you break below 107500 can look for a little retrace and boom. Today is going to be a very volatile day going into 106500. So that is the bearish scenario and so that definitely marks a nice little win. And so that definitely puts us up to 62 out of 75 of our last YouTube video calls and this. And today I'm going to aim to do the same and to kick things off right off the get go. I believe I filmed this video a little bit too late today. Now most days I find myself filming the video a little bit too early and I think there is a reason for that. Now if we take a look at news today we have Euro news which is happening all day, which explains maybe why there has been such an explosive move during the London session. And so does that mean that we're too late to the move? I don't think so. There is still a secondary move that I believe is going to come later on but just to you know, kick things off. Starting off on the higher time frame now we have much more high probability conditions where the higher time frame, the middle time frame and the lower time frame are very likely to be aligning with each other at the moment. For now we may have this daily fab gap that can be filled, you know, later on during the weekend. But for today I think the move is going to be pretty simple, bearish daily buyers. So today your target is going to be towards the downside and perhaps there may be, maybe, just maybe you may reach 102 today that will require a very volatile move which today later on you have USD news at 8:30. So it's not completely out of the question. So currently we're just going to mark out this further gap anyways to see if there is a potential for price to return back to this area. And in terms of the one hourly, just looking at the order flow, we are, you know, in bearish order flow prices, respecting bearish PD arrays. And something else that I can do better next time is just identifying that given how, you know, choppy this move was, this was kind of like an impulse move, right? Kind of like your 1, 2, 3 and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 kind of, you know, for those of you who are following Elliott Wave, I don't necessarily buy into this whole Elliott Wave thing, but it's true that the market does tend to show these kinds of characteristics whenever you're going through a retracement. And I should have been, you know, wiser to that. Given my market experience, I should definitely have been more confident yesterday. Instead of talking about the February gap, waiting for to close, I could have just been like, okay, yeah, this is definitely manipulation. You're heading into a order block. Like, you're definitely going to go much lower instead of discussing, you know, instead of being more in the 5050 line. So that's my reflection and I'll definitely do that more next time. And today is going to be pretty similar in the sense that you are in bearish W flow. So, like, the move today is going to be pretty straightforward. This is an example of where the daily time frame is pointing towards the downside. You have your hourly time frame also pointing towards the downside. Now we just need to see if our lower time frame is also pointing towards the downside. And this leads me on to the reason why I believe I may have recorded the video a bit late today. Asia session tends to be accumulation. London session tends to be manipulation, which means it's a false move. Meaning if you take out the Asia high on a day where you are bearish on the bias, this is prime opportunity for you to take a short to catch pretty much the high of the day. And, you know, this was, I believe, indeed the case. And although given how we have already missed this one, we are not too late yet because again, you are missing New York, which is distribution. Again today you have news at 8:30am which means that you're going to look for a retrace somewhere into this order block right here. And during 8:30am you're going to start heading lower. Now, this is a very similar setup to what we talked about yesterday where we wanted Price to return back into the February gap during 8:30am because that's also when the news was yesterday. But instead of getting that, 8:30am was when you started getting, you know, falling from the order block. So today setup is going to be pretty straightforward. Be sure to block here, see if this lines up with anything on the higher time frame. And actually in terms of the higher time frame, this is actually the key level that we need to be looking at. So we have two potential key levels that if price hits, you know, either during, you know, 8:30am or even before then, then you're going to look for a move towards the downside. Essentially this is one and this is two. But overall I think the target is going to be very clear. Asia session lows is a no brainer. You will definitely take this out today and just zooming out to the one hourly time frame to see if there are any other potential targets that we can put into place here. And we have one right here and then 102. So essentially target for today is you're going to take a trade somewhere here, entry here, stop loss, maybe here and this will give you an easy 2R trade. If you are someone who's a little bit more lower time frame based then you can definitely enter extract more than 2R from this move today. But overall it's pretty clear. The only thing that would kind of like invalidate this situation is before 8:30am you see a one hourly candle close above this fairly gap right here. This is and don't get me wrong, my prediction is definitely very much to the downside. This is just kind of what to do if this situation gets invalidated. It's also good to kind of come up with contingency plans and to, you know, prepare for if your scenario doesn't play out then what do you do? So the contingency plan in this case would be a one hourly candle close above this favorite gap. One hourly close above this favorite gap would essentially render these two bearish PDOAs kind of like useless or rather it kind of invalidates them. When one of the things that we look for in terms of time frame alignment is for all three time frames to be aligned together. And in terms of the lower time frames we want order flow to also be aligned. So if this happens then the trade idea gets invalidated. I wouldn't necessarily start going along today, but if you want to then the setup will be coming back into the further gap looking for a willingness for price to hit towards the upside on the five minute chart and that will be all good. And so that will be the setup for today. Again my prediction is still towards the downside, just purely based off my system and everything I understand from it. Not saying that this is going to be 100% accurate. We have maintained an 85% win rate so far over the last four months of making YouTube videos, but still just understand that I could be wrong. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, I had a comment section from. In the comment section, just know that I read and reply to every single one of you. Someone was talking about how, you know, he required some insight into how to navigate this broader, you know, kind of market situation. Instead of just focusing intraday and seeing how I've already given you the intraday setup, may as well talk about the broader, you know, kind of market conditions. And to kick things off right now, overall you're still very much in an uptrend and this is likely to continue until, you know, proven otherwise. The reason for this is you just have to study this in your kind of move right here. Higher highs, higher lows every time people are shaken out. But in reality it is just a retracement right now because you have formed a new all time high. That means that you can chop around, you can quite literally do anything from this range low to this range high right here. You can go up, down, inside, outside, left, right, whatever. Well, first of all you are anticipated to break above this high. But as long as you do not break below this low, the uptrend is very much still intact. Which leads me on to another question. These two areas right here is going to be prime areas for you to get in on a retracement if you have missed this move so far. We draw fib. This one at the bottom will definitely line up with a higher conviction entry. But this one is also valid. I think this one's going to be much more valid for us short term traders. You know, for the videos that we make on this channel, definitely a big opportunity for Price to just retrace into here and just continue to move. This is a very, very likely possibility. In fact this target that I drew out here, if today's candle closes bearish as well, then it's pretty likely that you will take out this low, this low and potentially fill in the fevity gap sometime during the weekends. Saturday, Sunday. Probably not on Saturday though because Saturday tends to be a very low volatility day. But Sunday, do not be surprised. This will be like kind of area number one where you look to time your altcoin entries, time your bitcoin entries. This is where you can get into a swing trade just targeting previous all time high. Alternatively, if this starts getting close below, for example, if you Get a weekly close below this rev gap, it means that you're reaching for the one that's lower. And if that is the case, like, yeah, that's where you kind of prime your altcoin entries. If you get that, then this is prime time to. This is what you would call a generational bottom within a bull run. Similar to how this was a generational bottom and similar to how this one right here was a generational bottom. All of these are based off of favorability gaps. If you take a look there and over here, you have a lower fabric gap right here that got filled. You have a higher one that got, you know, they got filled. Right? Right. And you ultimately did, like after you filling this, you did get a short term trade taking out the all time high. So perhaps we can see something similar. But then ultimately this will be the quote unquote generational entry. Another thing to study when it comes to bitcoin price action is if we take a look at over, you know, just over the course of the last month or two since April, basically the playbook for bitcoin has been pretty simple, right? You range for like a couple of weeks and then you get an expansion range for two to three weeks, get an expansion range for a couple of weeks, and then you get an expansion. At the moment, things are starting to look a little bit different in the sense that you are very clearly going through a retracement period at the moment, which is not out of the ordinary. Because if we take a look at the overall just bitcoin kind of movements, you'll see that after taking out some very key highs, you go for retracements and that's fine. Like take out key highs, go for retracement, take out key highs, you go for a retracement, and that's fine. This is, this is the markets. When you took out the previous all time high, you went for a very long retracement. Once you, you know, formed a new all time high, you went through a very long retrace retracement. Not saying that this time around you will get this kind of a long retracement, but just understand in terms of the bigger picture, you can quite literally go down 10,000 bucks from here and you'll still be safe in terms of the bull run. That's actually what you want because you want to, you know, buy low and sell high. And you can't really do that if the market's not giving you an opportunity to buy low and sell high. So that'll be the overall setup for bitcoin. Just understand that the biggest tip that I can probably give you as of this current moment is to not confuse your short term trades with your long term trades. A lot of people panic over long term booms when in reality they're thinking about short term stuff. Like for us it's really clear I'm trading, you know, intraday. This is my bread and butter. This is where I put food on the table. But to retire my bloodline and to retire, you know, multiple generations, I'm putting the money that I'm making from the intraday trading into e a separate account, right? This is a very pro tip. If you guys are only trading from one account, I highly recommend getting two, like for different purposes. That way, for example, if I'm taking a long on bitcoin, sorry, if I'm taking a short on bitcoin today, our box is bearish, right? I can't really do that if I only have one account. And I'm like, okay, I already have a swing trade long on bitcoin, like what am I supposed to do with this short? Right? It's kind of tough. So the best way that I found over the years is to segment your accounts, you know, separately. Have an account for, you know, your spot investing, have an account for your swing trading. If you want to do swing trading, have an account where you have some money to do your intraday, you know, sculpts the bread and butter, the stuff that puts food on the table. And for me, I even take it one step further. I am exposed to the forex and traditional part like the traditional markets as well. And so I have separate accounts for, you know, just taking traditional market trades. So every time I have a trade it's like, you know, there's clear buckets where that goes to helps a lot with not getting overwhelmed, especially when you're looking at multiple different pairs. When it comes to crypto. And speaking about crypto, something that I do want to share is this is new project coming up right now. Like fun fact, like despite how much I talk about technical analysis here, I am actually involved in doing some fundamental research. I just, just don't talk about it because it goes away from the general premise of the video. But for example, I called Kaito before Kaito even had a token and I was like, yeah guys, whatever. However you can get into this, I'm not going to pull up the tweets, but I've tweeted this publicly, talked about it in the Discord story is a huge project as well. And this is just getting started. This is a lot more room to go. But I also caught this, you know, in January and February inside the Discord hyperliquid. Obviously this is one of the strongest tokens throughout this entire bull run. I think it's currently like number 35 or something on Coingecko. And this still has a lot of room to go. Highly recommend it. Pendle personally is one of my biggest bags and I think this has potential to go much higher than this. Now don't get me wrong, these are not tokens that are going to give you like a 5 or 10x but these are safe like 3 to 5x's and it depends on like what level you're at. Level not to say oh, pro level or like nude level, more of like what is your goals. Cuz there are people that are trying to turn, you know, $10,000 into something much more so that they can have a sizable bag to work with. And then there are people where I'm just kind of taking it slow, slow and steady, just safe ways to grow my money. Just making sure that it multiplies this bull run and not taking on too many, you know, high risk investments. Different phases in life. Back in the days I was definitely part of, you know, just trying to make it quick. Of course, don't get me wrong, this is where that account segmentation comes into play. If you have multiple accounts you can very easily just have a degen dag, you can have your safe bag and this is how you can do it. But overall in terms of bitcoin, your own goods and definitely one of the last things that I want you to keep in mind is that most of the altcoin movements tend to start after Bitcoin. All time highs. Once bitcoin starts consolidating, that is when the alt season begins. You're already seeing a outperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin like just in the last four weeks. And I know like I've made predictions about Ethereum Bitcoin like in long, long time past where for example, that's kind of like the weekly, you know, supply zone, sorry, demand zone that I was mapping out and ultimately price did try to bounce above it, but ultimately that trade was stopped out. And that's fine, I'm wrong sometimes. But what's important is to study the price action. So far there has been a clear sign of outperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin which also means that this could signal the start of an alt season I'm realizing now that my camera is a bit off today. Pretty sure I'm lagging around. I do apologize for that to any of you still watching the video at this point. But just understand that next up we're going to have alt season. And when it comes to all season, you want to focus on the coins that are performing the best. I'm talking Sui, right? You want to buy into the coins that show strength, not the ones that are showing weakness. Back in 2021 and back in 2018, this would have worked. But you one thing you need to understand is that from 2021, right, there were a grand total of like 10,000 crypto tokens that exists in the entire market. And right now in 2025, I believe we're close. We're sitting very close to 50 million tokens at the moment thanks to, you know, pump fun and all of the, you know, stuff that's happening in the trenches. So right now you're having serious token dilution problems, which also means that it's not as easy as like, oh, old season. Every coin's going to pump very different. You have to be more selective this time around. And one of the key things that you need to understand about this is as long as you focus on the coins that have strength because there is a reason why these coins are pumping. They're not pumping for no reason. It means people believe in it or, you know, whatever. It's a good sign, right? Buy into strength, don't buy into weakness. You want to short into weakness instead, believe it or not, you can still make quite a bit of good money in a bull run shorting, you know, the, the trash stuff. And so right now we have some clear out performers. Whiff is, you know, back then early in this cycle this was a top performer. Same goes for podcat. Currently they're very weak compared to stuff like Sui. Over the last few months it has remained strong compared to stuff like T bittense is also kind of showing some weakness right now. But Sui is definitely a standout performer. You have Fartcoin, which is doing pretty good. You have Solana, definitely is going to recover back to the all time highs. Bnb, by the way, has been a sleeper. Like this thing did not like, does not outperform, but it definitely doesn't lose much strength either. And as long as Binance is around, they're still very much the number one option when it comes to, you know, just crypto. Outside of Dexes of course, like hyper liquid and stuff, but definitely good to focus on. But yeah, there's you. You guys can see like just from the chart which ones are showing clear strength. Kaito, for example. I talked about this. I'm one of the biggest proponents for Kaito. Like you have stuff like hyper liquids, which is clearly something new, something big. They have a clear use case and they're performing much better than all of the other ones out there. So guys, don't get married to your bags. Buy into strength. Understand that off season is coming. You want to position yourselves early into these large cap coins. Hyperliquid and Kaito would be my top picks alongside Sui as the large cap players. Pretty sure Kaito isn't even considered like super large cap, but it's still large cap enough. So Kaito is not even on the 100 tokens, which is absolutely insane. Like this thing is super undervalued. They are like if you. If you've never used Kaito before, like I used to use this just to do like research for crypto tokens. And like at 500 million, this is so undervalued. This is easily like a $10 billion token by the end. By the time all is said and done. So many interesting projects are being built on this. Guys. You hear, you heard it here. First get into Kaito. This one's a journ. And to those of you who watch until here on this really long rant, let me know in the comment section below. And to all of the others where, you know you posted some coin analyses that you would like me to do. I'm going to get to them sometime during this weekend. So if you have any other coins that you would like me to do, just leave it down in the comment section below and I'll try to get to them throughout the weekends and you'll see kind of like a big video where I go through stuff that's worth looking at, stuff that's potentially not so worth looking at or just. Yeah, we're just going to go through it. And one last thing. Yesterday we had a call with the bootcamp guys and we managed to like. We had quite a little special moment because we saw Dustin get funded for 100k live. Like live on the Zoom call. It was pretty special moment. To those of you who would like to work with me one on one. Yes, me and you, one on one to get funded and to ultimately go full time in the trading. Stop wasting your time on all of these BS YouTube videos and you know, all of these other programs and to actually just get a result in the next 60 days. First, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. We'll start our next intake in about two to three weeks, but otherwise, guys, peace out. Have a great weekend. And it's time for me to head to the beach. Guys. Cha Cha.